Tuesday, October16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fuquay-Varina, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 6:39PM Tuesday October 16, 2018 8:30 PM EDT (00:30 UTC) Moonrise 1:18PMMoonset 11:33PM Illumination 50% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fuquay-Varina, NC
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location: 35.64, -78.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 170007
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
805 pm edt Tue oct 16 2018

Synopsis
Weak low pressure and a cold front over southern nc will move to our
se later tonight and Wednesday. High pressure moving overhead
Thursday and Friday. Another cold front will cross the area on
Saturday, before much cooler and drier air arrives on Sunday.

Near term tonight
As of 805 pm Tuesday...

a fairly broad and weak low pressure was tracking E across southern
nc this evening, as a weak short wave approached from the southern
appalachians. The only area of strong thunderstorm potential
continued to be the sandhills into the SE coastal plain. These areas
were in the warm sector, characterized by limited instability (less
than 500 j kg mlcapes, but a little more robust shear (50 knots bulk
shear 0-6km). Radar data indicated an uptick in convection
associated with surface moisture convergence within the broad low
pressure. To the west and north, widespread stratiform rain was
falling in the cooler and most stable air from tn into western and
northern nc.

We will carry the current categorical pop for showers scattered
thunderstorms over the southern and eastern piedmont southeast to
the coastal plain and sandhills as the low pressure and cold front
move eastward through later tonight. Any minimal severe threat
(isolated damaging wind the main hazard) will be confined to areas
of the sandhills and SE coastal plain through late evening,
decreasing further after midnight. Occasional light rain expected in
the west and north including the triad. Pop will taper off later
tonight as the upper support moves east and the cold front drops
south into northern sc. Lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s N to s.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night
As of 330 pm Tuesday...

surface cold front will be exiting the area Wednesday morning
with drier air slowly filtering into the region. Pwats on
Wednesday will slowly fall below 0.5" over the northwest and
near 1.00" towards the coastal plain. It should be noted though
that the 850 mb front is lagging behind and doesn't really cross
the zones until Wednesday evening. Therefore have kept highs in
the lower to upper 70s.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
As of 248 pm Tuesday...

in the wake of the cold front, cool surface high pressure will ridge
into the area while northwest flow aloft will also result in both
cold advection and subsidence. The combination of cold advection and
clear skies will result in below normal temperatures (highs in the
upper 50s to mid 60s and lows in the upper 30s to low 40s) Thursday
and Thursday night. The upper level ridge will push northward into
the carolinas on Friday while the surface high shifts offshore and
return flow into the area becomes more easterly and southeasterly.

Some moderation in temperature is expected, with highs in the low
60s NW to upper 60s SE (still below normal).

Another cold front will approach the area late Friday, moving into
the mid-atlantic Friday night and through by Saturday evening. A
result of the brief period of southwesterly flow into the area
Friday night will be a bit milder lows (low to mid 50s) but
increasing cloud cover and chances for precipitation. The front
should progress through the area rather quickly, resulting in a
relatively small window for precipitation, between midnight Saturday
and midnight Sunday. Highs on Saturday will depend on the timing of
the front, though for now expect a range from mid 60s NW to mid 70s
se.

The front should have progressed through the region entirely by
midnight Sunday, resulting in drying, clearing, and cold advection.

As cold high pressure dives southeastward into the carolinas in the
wake of the front, cold air will advect into the region. The high is
expected to build over central nc Sunday night and Monday.

Temperatures will continue to be well below normal, highs in the mid
50s north to mid 60s south and the lowest lows of the season in the
mid 30s north to low 40s se. Thankfully with high pressure and clear
skies overhead, no precipitation is expected during that time. Winds
will generally be 5 mph or less, thus wind chills will only be a
degree or two below the temperature (mid 30s to around 40 degrees).

Aviation 00z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 805 pm Tuesday...

24 hour TAF period:
MVFR to ifr conditions with occasional rain or rain showers will
continue tonight. A thunderstorm will be possible through 06z or so
at kfay to krwi as the cold front moves east through the region.

The cold front will push east and and drier air will finally bring
clear to all the TAF sites Wednesday morning, with a return toVFR
conditions expected between 12z and 16z wed.

Wednesday behind the front cold air advection will also be
moving in allowing for wind and wind gusts to be in the 10 to 20
kt range. Using momentum transfer techniques on the GFS again
yields values near 15-20 kts, where as the NAM is less. For now
have just bumped the winds up.

Long term:VFR conditions will last through the remainder of
the work week before another frontal system moves in for
Saturday, presenting chances for precipitation and sub-VFR
conditions before clearing out for Sunday.

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Badgett haines
near term... Badgett haines
short term... Haines
long term... Kcp
aviation... Bsd haines


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC17 mi39 minE 310.00 miLight Rain67°F63°F87%1019.8 hPa
Erwin, Harnett County Airport, NC18 mi55 minNNE 310.00 miOvercast75°F69°F82%1019.3 hPa
Sanford, Sanford-Lee County Regional Airport, NC19 mi40 minNNE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy70°F67°F91%1019.3 hPa
Smithfield, Johnston County Airport, NC20 mi50 minNE 54.00 miFog/Mist72°F68°F88%1019.3 hPa

Wind History from RDU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S7S6S6SW5SW5SW7SW7SW6NW3CalmNW3N5NE7NE5E63NE5NE5CalmNE4NE8NE6E3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4W5SW8SW9W14SW11SW12SW11SW7CalmCalm
2 days agoE4CalmCalmCalmNE5E7E3NE4NE3NE4NE4NE5NE5E4E33N4NE4E5E3NE3CalmNE4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Tue -- 04:11 AM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:40 AM EDT     1.25 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:02 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 02:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:11 PM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:15 PM EDT     1.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.70.50.30.20.30.60.91.11.21.21.10.90.60.40.30.20.20.50.91.21.31.41.4

Tide / Current Tables for Castle Hayne, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Castle Hayne
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Tue -- 12:57 AM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:26 AM EDT     1.65 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:57 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:02 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 02:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:01 PM EDT     1.84 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.30.50.91.31.51.61.61.410.70.50.30.20.40.81.31.61.81.81.71.51.10.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.