Thursday, January24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fuquay-Varina, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 5:35PM Thursday January 24, 2019 5:15 AM EST (10:15 UTC) Moonrise 9:51PMMoonset 9:58AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fuquay-Varina, NC
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location: 35.64, -78.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 240920
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
416 am est Thu jan 24 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure and a strong cold front will push through our region
this morning. High pressure will follow and build across the region
later today through Friday.

Near term through tonight
As of 315 am Thursday...

there is a marginal risk of damaging thunderstorm wind this morning,
mainly east of interstate 95.

The latest observational data indicated low pressure deepening over
northeast ga into western sc, with a trailing cold front to the
south. The wedge front or warm front has pushed up along the blue
ridge and will no longer be a player for central nc. Southerly winds
at 15-20 mph have pushed the temperatures into the 50s into the
triad, with lower 60s observed from charlotte and albemarle to
raleigh eastward. Showers were widespread across central nc, with
the showers beginning to become widespread in the east. Several meso-
lows were noted over sc into western nc, with one of the strongest
noted just SE of charlotte at 300 am. Showers will continue to
spread NE across the region through daybreak, with locally heavy
rain and gustier winds expected along the meso-low tracks. Gradient
winds from the south at 15-25 mph are expected, with gusts to 30-40
mph possible in the heavy showers due to the increasing low level
jet.

Toward daybreak, the main concern will become the treat of a few
damaging wind gusts - mainly east of the interstate 95 corridor in
the coastal plain eastward. This will be a associated with the
combination of increasing instability (lower to mid 60s dew points),
the strong low level jet (70+ knots), and a developing line of
convection. The main surface low will be deepening and moving north
into va and this will pull the main cold front east into the coastal
plain around mid-morning. The widespread showers out ahead of the
front may allow for conditions to remain stable over the coastal
plain precluding the threat of damaging wind reaching the surface.

However, that is not clear cut at the movement thus we will have to
monitor these conditions later this morning for the potential.

Again, the main threat would be wind a few damaging wind gusts with
the focus on the convective line in the coastal plain - mainly after
12z through around 15z or so.

Over the rest of central nc, the showers will be on the decrease as
the low moves north and the front moves through. The heaviest rain
and gusty south winds will move east into the coastal plain between
700 and 900 am. However, some light showers will continue into the
mid morning hours before the strong sinking and wind shift to the
west occurs later in the morning.

Highs today will be this morning, mostly 60-70 NW to se, with
falling temperatures with decreasing cloudiness this afternoon in
the nw. Elsewhere, the second wind shift will occur mid to late day
from NW to se. Therefore, mild SW winds at 15-25 mph will shift late
to nw. This is when the main CAA will arrive driving down
temperatures during the evening hours.

Tonight, mostly clear, breezy and turning much colder again. An
upper level disturbance may keep some mid and high clouds around
overnight. Expect diminishing wind overnight with lows in the 20s.

Short term Friday and Friday night
As of 315 am Thursday...

seasonably cold and dry as high pressure will be in control. Highs
Friday will generally be in the 40s. Lows Friday night will again
fall into the 20s.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
As of 410 am Thursday...

persistent broad cyclonic flow will continue across the eastern half
of the country during the medium range portion of the forecast. A
couple moisture starved weaker disturbances will move through the
broad cyclonic flow this weekend into early next week across the
eastern u.S., before a more potent system is expected to move across
the region Tuesday into Tuesday night as another deep vortex dives
southward out of canada into the great lakes region. Ahead of this
system, expect a general warming trend, with highs warming from the
40s to near 50 on Saturday to highs in the 50s to near 60 Monday and
Tuesday, with low temps ranging from the mid to upper 20s on Sunday
morning to the mid to upper 30s on Tuesday morning.

Another surge of cold air is expected with the cold front expected
to move through the area on Tuesday. Any precip with the system is
expected to be generally along and behind the system. This may lead
to a brief change over from rain to snow before the light precip
exits. Regardless, much colder temps will filer into central nc
again by mid next week, with lows ranging from the mid 20s NW to the
lower to mid 30s SE and highs ranging from the upper 30s NW to the
mid 40s S se.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Sunday
As of 1235 am Thursday...

aviation ceilings are currently ranging fromVFR to lifr across the
region thanks to a warm front that is pulling to the north and west
across central north carolina. The wedge front is currently located
just north of the kint and kgso areas. Lifr conditions north and
west of the front. South and east of the warm front MVFR toVFR
conditions exist.

The line of showers is currently heading east along a cold front and
is forecast to approach the terminals early Thursday morning. The
line will move through the region during the overnight.

Some thunder will be possible towards a kfay to krwi area as the nam
is showing some instability CAPE moving northeast in association
with a weak surface low (around ~400 j kg of mu cape). The low level
pressure gradient will also increase meaning the low level flow will
be impressive. The NAM 2 kft agl winds are approaching 55 to 60 kts
so have left llws in all of the TAF sites to account for this.

Behind the front skies will slowly clear toVFR as drier air works
into the region.

Beyond 00z Friday:VFR conditions are expected through the extended
taf period.

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Badgett
near term... Badgett
short term... Badgett
long term... Bsd
aviation... Pwb bsd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC17 mi25 minS 13 G 247.00 miLight Rain62°F61°F96%1003.6 hPa
Erwin, Harnett County Airport, NC18 mi36 minSSE 114.00 miOvercast64°F64°F100%1005.1 hPa
Sanford, Sanford-Lee County Regional Airport, NC19 mi51 minS 10 G 187.00 miRain63°F62°F98%1004.4 hPa
Smithfield, Johnston County Airport, NC20 mi21 minS 97.00 miRain63°F62°F100%1005.4 hPa

Wind History from RDU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm3S3CalmCalmNW3NW4SW5S11
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1 day agoNE5E5NE4NE4E5E6CalmE33W4S6SE6SE4SE4SE4SE4CalmE53SE5SE3E4CalmNE4
2 days agoNW6NW6NW6NW10
G17
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65NW6N3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE4

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Thu -- 12:33 AM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:49 AM EST     1.41 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:53 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 12:43 PM EST     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:32 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:10 PM EST     1.52 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:47 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.1-0.10.20.71.11.41.41.310.70.40.1-0.1-0.20.10.61.11.41.51.51.310.70.4

Tide / Current Tables for Castle Hayne, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Castle Hayne
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Thu -- 02:35 AM EST     1.85 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:29 AM EST     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:53 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 02:56 PM EST     1.99 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:33 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:48 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:07 PM EST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.61.81.81.61.30.90.50.1-0.2-0.20.311.61.921.91.61.20.90.50.1-0.20

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.