Monday, May27, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Engelhard, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:49AMSunset 8:14PM Monday May 27, 2019 7:19 AM EDT (11:19 UTC) Moonrise 1:18AMMoonset 12:38PM Illumination 40% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 307 Pm Edt Thu Apr 4 2019
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Engelhard, NC
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location: 35.65, -76.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 271045
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
645 am edt Mon may 27 2019

Synopsis
A backdoor cold front will push south into the region today,
then quickly retreat north Tuesday, with very hot temperatures
expected across the area through at least the middle of the
week. A cold front is expected to move into the area Friday.

Near term today
As of 645 am mon... Latest sfc analysis shows high pressure in
control, with front moving through central va, as strong
ridging continues aloft. The backdoor cold front will push south
through most of the region this afternoon and early evening.

Once again overall lack of forcing and moisture aloft should
limit convection this afternoon. But did increase pops slightly
across the NE portions of the area, where cams show isolated to
widely scattered showers and storms developing this afternoon,
with better convergence from the frontal boundary and seabreeze.

Will have decent temp gradient today with NRN coast reaching 80
to 85 with developing onshore flow, while SW tier should see
some upr 90s. Dewpts progged to drop in aftn inland keeping
apparent temps mainly AOB 100 degrees. Some temps will be close
to records today. See climate section below for details.

Short term tonight
As of 230 am mon... The backdoor front across the southern
portions of the forecast area this evening should gradually lift
back north late tonight and early Tuesday morning. Isolated
showers TSTM will still be possible across the northern areas
early evening as weak impulses continue to move through the flow
aloft, with chances waning with loss of heating. Overnight lows
in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
As of 300 am Monday... Upper ridging over the southeast coupled
with surface high pressure offshore will bring hot and mainly
dry conditions through much of the work week. The ridge breaks
down late in the week with a frontal system approaching from the
bringing increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms Friday
into the weekend.

Tuesday through Thursday... Upper ridging centered over the
southeast through the period with hot and dry conditions
prevailing. Cannot rule out a isolated pulse shower or
thunderstorm along the sea breeze through peak heating with a
moist and unstable airmass in place, but subsidence beneath the
ridge will suppress most convection and limit the strength of
any storms that do develop.

The main story this week will be the hot temps with 850mb temps
around 17-20c, possibly peaking as high as 23c Wednesday as
fcst in the 00z ecmwf. Highs expected in the mid to upper 90
inland to mid to upper 80s beaches on Tuesday. The heat peaks
wed with highs around 100 inland to low to mid 90s beaches, then
the upper ridge begins to slide offshore Thursday with high in
the upper 90s inland to mid upper 80s along the beaches.

Friday through Sunday... The upper ridge slides offshore late in
the week with near zonal flow developing across the eastern
conus over the weekend. A dampening shortwave trough and
surface frontal boundary approach from the west bringing
increased chances of showers and thunderstorms across eastern
nc. There are some significant model differences on timing and
amount of precip, so will keep pops to slight chance or low
chance. Sunday looks to be the drier day of the weekend with the
front dissipating across the region and the shortwave moving
offshore and weak ridging building in its wake, but cannot rule
out an isolated shower or storm developing in the afternoon.

Temps will not be quite as hot as earlier in the week but still
well above average with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s
inland and mid 80s along the coast.

Aviation 12z Monday through Friday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 645 am mon... PredVFR conditions expected through the
period. A back door cold front will move south through most of
the area today, however lack of forcing and moisture should
limit convection to isolated cvrg this afternoon, and best
chance looks east of the TAF sites. Light W wsw winds this
morning, becoming NW N 5-15 kt this afternoon. May be slightly
better chances for patchy fog overnight into Tuesday morning,
but will not include in tafs at this time.

Long term Tuesday through Friday ...

as of 330 am Monday... Upper ridging will keep generally dry and
hot conditions across the area this week with predVFR
conditions expected. Cannot rule out a widely scattered shower
or thunderstorm each afternoon along the sea breeze but
coverage will be minimal. A slightly better chance of storms
comes Friday as the upper ridge pushes east and a frontal
boundary approaches from the west. Early morning fog chances
also look minimal but cannot completely rule out patchy late
night early morning fog or stratus.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 645 am mon... Latest obs show W wsw winds 5-15 kt with
seas 2-4 ft. A weak backdoor cold front will push south through
the waters this afternoon into this evening, the lift back north
late tonight and early Tuesday. Ahead of the front this morning
w wsw winds continue, then as the front pushes south through
the waters this afternoon and evening winds shift becoming nne
10-15 kt with gusts 15-20 kt behind it. Over the far southern
waters the front will likely slow and may have hard time pushing
south as sea brz develops. Front likely to push through into
the southern waters early evening, then lifts north overnight
into Tue morning. E winds 5-15 kt late tonight becoming SE 5-10
kt early Tue morning. Seas mainly 2 to 4 feet, with some 5 ft
along the outer waters. High risk of rip currents continues for
all our beaches today.

Long term Tuesday through Friday ...

as of 330 am Monday... Small craft advisory conditions possible
late Thursday into Friday.

High pressure remains centered offshore through the period. Se
winds around 5-10 kt early Tuesday veer to S around 10-15 kt by
afternoon, then becoming SW Tuesday night into Wednesday. Sw
winds increase to 15-20 kt late Wednesday through Thursday as
gradients tighten ahead of an approaching cold front, then peak
around 15-25 kt late Thursday into early Friday, then diminish
to 10-20 kt Friday. Seas expected around 2-4 ft Tuesday and
Wednesday, then build to 3-5 ft Thursday, then 4-7 ft late
Thursday into Friday, then to 3-5 ft by late Friday.

Climate
Record or near record warmth is expected for much of the week.

Record high temps for 5 27 (today)
location temp year
new bern 96 1989 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 86 2004 (khse asos)
greenville 96 1962 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 88 2006 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 96 2011 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 97 1989 (knca asos)
record high temps for 5 28 (Tuesday)
location temp year
new bern 93 2014 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 87 1991 (khse asos)
greenville 97 1916 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 88 2006 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 93 2004 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 95 1967 (knca asos)
record high temps for 5 29 (Wednesday)
location temp year
new bern 95 1982 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 91 1991 (khse asos)
greenville 95 1918 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 92 1991 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 93 1991 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 94 1967 (knca asos)
record high temps for 5 30 (Thursday)
location temp year
new bern 96 1991 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 89 1991 (khse asos)
greenville 95 1918 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 96 1988 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 95 1991 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 94 1991 (knca asos)

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz195-196-
199-203>205.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Cqd
short term... Cqd
long term... Sk sgk
aviation... Sk cqd
marine... Sk cqd
climate... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 27 mi32 min W 8.9 G 13 77°F 81°F1012.4 hPa
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 35 mi32 min W 9.9 G 11 78°F 76°F1013 hPa
44095 38 mi34 min 73°F4 ft
44086 40 mi25 min 71°F4 ft
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 40 mi32 min N 6 G 7 71°F 63°F1012.3 hPa
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 41 mi20 min 69°F3 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 48 mi50 min 73°F4 ft

Wind History for Oregon Inlet Marina, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC26 mi40 minN 310.00 miFair76°F67°F75%1012.9 hPa

Wind History from MQI (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Old House Channel, North Carolina
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Old House Channel
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:16 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:32 AM EDT     0.61 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:20 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:36 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:09 PM EDT     0.62 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:48 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.40.50.60.60.60.50.40.30.20.10.10.20.30.50.60.60.60.50.40.30.20.20.1

Tide / Current Tables for Davis Slough, North Carolina
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Davis Slough
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:16 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:07 AM EDT     0.79 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:51 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:36 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:44 PM EDT     0.80 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:19 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.