Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fairfield, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 4:54PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 6:22 AM EST (11:22 UTC) Moonrise 2:10PMMoonset 2:28AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 613 Am Est Tue Dec 18 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 am est this morning...
Today..N winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt this afternoon. Waves around 2 ft.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Showers.
Thu night..SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers.
Fri..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairfield, NC
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location: 35.67, -76.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 181037
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
537 am est Tue dec 18 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will build over the area through mid week.

Another wet storm system is forecast to impact the area
Thursday into Friday. High pressure will build over the area
over the weekend into early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 535 am Tuesday... No changes to previous thinking high
pressure will build over the area from the NW today. Cold
advection and associated northerly flow will result in cooler
temperatures today despite sunny skies. A thin veil of cirrus
clouds will move into the area this afternoon into early
evening. Highs will range from the lower 50s inland to the mid
to upper 40s coast. Brisk winds this morning will diminish this
afternoon.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Wednesday
As of 235 am Tuesday... High pressure is forecast to crest over
the area tonight producing continued clear skies and light
winds. Resulting strong radiational cooling will produce cold
low temps in the upper 20s to lower 30s inland and lower to
middle 30s coast.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
As of 250 am Tuesday... High pressure will move offshore
Wednesday as another storm system lifts west and north of the
area Thursday into Friday. High pressure builds in again from
the west for the upcoming weekend.

Wednesday and Wednesday night... High pressure will begin to
slide offshore Wednesday as low-level SE S flow increases
Wednesday night. Precipitable water values will surge to almost
1.5 inches by late Wednesday night and will raise pops slightly
near the coast after 06z Thursday as a few warm advection
showers will develop. Highs temperatures on Wednesday will be in
the low mid 50s, but will only drop to the mid 40s to lower 50s
as strong warm-air advection kicks in Wednesday night.

Thursday through Friday... Longer range models continue to be in
good agreement showing cut off upper level low tracking across
the deep south then turning up the mid-atlantic coast by Friday
as strengthening surface low moves west across the mountains and
to our north. Deep moisture will arrive by later on Thursday as
precipitable water values surge to nearly 2 inches, well above
the normal for this time of year. Model QPF continues to
consistently show 2-3 inches across our cwa, with localized
higher amounts, especially along the central outer banks, where
the GFS shows up to 5 inches of rainfall. Flood potential will
need to be monitored given the extraordinary excess of rainfall
that has occurred in the region over the past 4 months. Gusty
winds will also accompany this storm system. Will also continue
to mention a chance of a few thunderstorms Thursday afternoon
into Thursday night as surface-based CAPE values of 500-750 j kg
are seen in some of the guidance. With the gusty S SE winds,
temperatures will be much milder, reaching the mid upper 60s for
Thursday and low mid 60s Friday with lows remaining in the 50s.

Friday night through Monday... Precipitation should move offshore
Friday evening as high pressure builds in from the west for the
weekend. With no real arctic air anticipated, temperatures
should be normal for the weekend with highs generally in the 50s
and lows in the 30s.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 535 am Monday...VFR conditions expected across the area
through tonight as dry high pressure builds over the area. Could
see N winds gust into the mid teens this morning with winds
becoming calm overnight.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday ...

as of 3 am Tuesday...VFR conditions should prevail on Wednesday
as high pressure gradually shifts offshore. Widespread areas of
sub-vfr ceilings and vsbys are likely starting Thursday
afternoon into Friday as a strong storm system brings showers, a
few thunderstorms and gusty winds to the TAF sites. Conditions
should improve toVFR as the storm exits late Friday night and
Saturday.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 535 am Tuesday... No changes to previous thinking.

Continue the sca's for the sounds and near shore waters today.

Ongoing northerly surge 15-25 kt this morning is forecast to
diminish this afternoon to 10 to 20 kt, then as high pressure
crests over the waters tonight winds will diminish to 5 to 10 kt
after midnight. Seas will build to 4-7 ft today (highest over
the northern and central waters), then subside to 2-4 ft late
tonight as winds become light.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday ...

as of 3 am Tuesday... As high pressure shifts offshore on
Wednesday, winds should veer from NE to more E se, but will
remain light at 10 knots or less. With an approaching storm
system, winds and seas ramp up Thursday into Friday with gale
force winds possible Thursday night as SE S winds of 25-35
knots are expected with gusts to near 40 knots possible. Seas
build to as high as 10-15 feet by Thursday night. These rough
conditions will persist into the weekend as strong low pressure
passes to the west and north of our area.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for amz135-
156-158.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est this morning for amz130-
131.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for amz150-
152-154.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Jme
short term... Jme
long term... Ctc
aviation... Jme ctc
marine... Jme ctc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 30 mi59 min N 12 G 16 44°F 51°F1016.1 hPa
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 38 mi59 min N 19 G 21 47°F 55°F1015.8 hPa
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 40 mi59 min N 21 G 24 44°F 47°F1015.6 hPa
44095 40 mi37 min 52°F7 ft
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 41 mi53 min 49°F6 ft
44086 42 mi58 min 52°F8 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 48 mi38 min 51°F7 ft

Wind History for Oregon Inlet Marina, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC27 mi43 minNNE 1210.00 miFair42°F32°F68%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from MQI (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW3S4SW10SW8W11
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2 days agoS5S6SW6S9SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3E4CalmS3S6S7CalmW4W7W8W7W3W4W6W5

Tide / Current Tables for Old House Channel, North Carolina
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Old House Channel
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:26 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:25 AM EST     0.67 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:14 AM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:07 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:41 PM EST     0.60 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 11:16 PM EST     0.00 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.30.40.60.70.70.60.50.40.20.10.10.10.20.30.50.60.60.50.40.30.20.10

Tide / Current Tables for Davis Slough, North Carolina
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Davis Slough
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:26 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:01 AM EST     0.87 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:45 AM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:07 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:16 PM EST     0.77 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:47 PM EST     0.00 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.50.70.80.90.80.70.60.40.20.10.10.20.30.50.70.80.80.70.50.30.100

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.