Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fairfield, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:24AMSunset 7:52PM Friday August 18, 2017 5:58 PM EDT (21:58 UTC) Moonrise 1:57AMMoonset 4:26PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 329 Pm Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms until early morning, then a slight chance of showers and tstms late.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..W winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..S winds around 5 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairfield, NC
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location: 35.67, -76.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 181914
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
314 pm edt Fri aug 18 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will move into the area tonight and stall. This
front will move south of the area early next week. High pressure
builds back in by Tuesday. Another cold front will approach the
area in the middle of next week.

Near term through tonight
As 300 pm Friday... Latest mesoanalysis is showing a very
unstable atmosphere with CAPE values of 5500 j kg, LI -7 to -8
and pw remaining above 2 inches. Sfc analysis is now showing the
cold front along the oh tn valley, while a sfc trof along
central nc. Radar is showing showers and thunderstorms have
developed east of hwy 17 along the seabreeze. Showers and
thunderstorms will continue through the late evening and wane
down with the lost of daytime heating. Some additional showers
may develop late tonight as the cold front approaches closer to
the area. Yet another very warm and muggy night with lows in the
75-80 degrees.

Short term Saturday
As of 300 pm Friday... An unstable conditions will continue
tomorrow with CAPE values ranging 3000-3500 j kg, LI -8 and pw
remaining above 2 inches. The cold front is progged to be over
eastern nc by morning and becoming stationary. This will lead
to good sfc convergence and result to more showers and
thunderstorms to develop late morning into the evening. Expect
highs near 90 degree inland and mid 80s along the coast.

Long term Saturday night through Friday
As of 300 pm Friday... For the remainder of the weekend, a cold
front will move into the area Saturday night and Sunday but
quickly weaken and waver across the area. The best chance for
storms this weekend will be Saturday evening and with pwats
still above 2", locally heavy rain is possible. By Sunday much
drier air moves into the northern 2 3 of the area, with pwats
here dropping under 1.5". Continued low chance pops across the
southern portion of the area where lingering front or sea breeze
could interact with slightly higher moisture values.

Monday Tuesday... No big changes to this period of the forecast as a
cold front mentioned above washes out across our area. The biggest
impact from the front will be the much drier air, with pwats
mainly around 1.5 inches. This is a bit more moisture than in
previous forecast and carried a low chance of mainly diurnally
driven convection both days. Expect highs in the low 90s inland
to mid 80s along the beaches..

Wednesday Thursday... The next front will move into nc Wednesday,
and our area late Wednesday night into Thursday. Moisture will
increase ahead of the front through the period. Will maintain
the previous forecast of rain chances close to 50% during this
time with the passage of the front. Temps near 90 Wednesday will
slide back into the 80s Thursday with the passage of the front.

By Friday with the frontal passage through the area, expect much
drier and cooler weather. Lows Friday morning will dip into the
upper 60s to around 70 inland and highs Friday will be in the
lower 80s. Carried low chance pops for potential for widely
scattered afternoon convection on Friday should the front
linger in the area, but if trends hold, Friday could be a very
pleasant and dry day.

Aviation 18z Friday through Wednesday
Short term through 12z Saturday ...

as of 2 pm Friday... Mainly aVFR TAF forecast with brief moments
of sub-vfr conditions this afternoon. Expect isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms under a very unstable
atmosphere, mainly along the seabreeze effecting ewn and oaj.

Some storms will produce heavy downpours and brief gusty winds
into the evening hours. Most of the storms are expected to
diminish this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Some
showers may develop this evening along the coastal plains as the
front approaches closer to the area. Added a vcsh for pgv and
iso. Confidence is low at this time with the development of fog
and stratus. Think there will be more of an opportunity for
stratus to develop versus fog as most of the rainfall will occur
mostly east of the TAF sites. Therefore, added a sct020 deck
for all TAF sites for late tonight. Conditions will improve back
toVFR tomorrow morning before brief moment of sub-vfr
conditions as additional showers and thunderstorms to develop
again late morning.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday ...

as of 300 pm Friday... SubVFR conditions possible Saturday
night with the passage of a cold front, with showers and
thunderstorms most likely . Shifting to coast during evening
hours. Beyond Saturday night, mainlyVFR weather expected
through mid week until the next front approaches Wednesday into
Wednesday night with a better chance of more widespread showers
and thunderstorms. &&

Marine
Short term today and tonight ...

as of 300 pm Friday... Latest buoy obs are showing SW 10-15
knots and seas 2-3 ft. Gradient will tighten ahead of a cold
front tonight as SW winds increase to 10-20 knots and seas will
build up to 3-4 ft with 5 ft along the outer waters. Winds will
relax a bit on Saturday SW 10-15 knots with seas subsiding 2-4
ft.

Marine
Long term Saturday night through Wednesday ...

as of 300 pm Friday... Quiet boating conditions continue on the
waters through early next week. Winds will be 10 kt or less and
waver direction as a front lingers and dissipates in the area
through the area through Monday night. Seas will run 1 to 3 feet
through that period. Winds become southerly and begin to
increase Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night and into
Wednesday as a cold front approaches the area. Winds will be
around 15 kt Tuesday night and increase to 15 to 20 kt Wednesday
with seas increasing to 3 to 4 feet.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Heat advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for ncz029-044>047-
079>081-090>094-098.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Bm
near term... Bm
short term... Bm
long term... Rsb
aviation... Rsb bm
marine... Rsb bm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 30 mi46 min S 13 G 16 82°F 86°F1011.5 hPa
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 38 mi40 min SW 8.9 G 15 85°F 84°F1012.2 hPa
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 40 mi40 min SSW 8.9 G 14 82°F 73°F1010.6 hPa
44095 40 mi40 min 81°F3 ft
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 41 mi58 min 79°F2 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 48 mi23 min 80°F2 ft

Wind History for Oregon Inlet Marina, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC27 mi73 minSSW 910.00 miFair82°F72°F75%1011.8 hPa

Wind History from MQI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S5S5S9SW10SW8SW12SW11SW12SW14SW12SW13SW9SW11SW8SW7SW7SW6S11S13S14
G19
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G16
1 day agoE7NE5E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3S3SE6SE9SE8SE7S8
2 days agoSE7SE6SE5SE4CalmS5S9SW6SW5NW3NW3N3NE9NE8NE5NE6NE7NE6N7NE7NE8E9E8E7

Tide / Current Tables for Old House Channel, North Carolina
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Old House Channel
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:34 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:04 AM EDT     0.68 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:31 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:24 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:37 PM EDT     0.85 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.10.20.30.50.60.70.60.50.40.20.1000.10.30.50.70.80.80.80.60.50.3

Tide / Current Tables for Roanoke Sound Channel, North Carolina
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Roanoke Sound Channel
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:24 AM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:54 AM EDT     0.57 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:17 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:24 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:39 PM EDT     0.70 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.10.10.20.30.40.50.60.50.40.30.10.1000.10.30.50.60.70.70.60.50.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.