Tuesday, September25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fairfield, NC

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 6:58PM Tuesday September 25, 2018 9:21 AM EDT (13:21 UTC) Moonrise 6:39PMMoonset 6:12AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 735 Am Edt Tue Sep 25 2018
Today..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Scattered showers. Isolated tstms late this morning. Scattered tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms. Patchy fog after midnight.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Wed night..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Thu..W winds around 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..E winds around 5 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne. Waves 1 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers.
Sat..NE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairfield, NC
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location: 35.67, -76.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 251138
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
738 am edt Tue sep 25 2018

Synopsis
An area of low pressure will approach from the south today, and
lift north along the coast tonight. A cold front will move into
the area Thursday, stall and then slowly push through Friday
night into Saturday night. High pressure will build in from the
north behind the front late this weekend into early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 730 am Tuesday... A frontal boundary remains stalled
across the coastal plain this morning with a low pressure area
about 300 mi south of CAPE hatteras. The low will lift nne
toward the area today and is progged to be just east of cape
fear late this afternoon. Stratus fog across the coastal plain
is expected to erode between 9-10am. Continue to see showers
moving into southern coastal sections from this low and expect
them to penetrate farther inland through the morning hours with
isolated thunder possible, mainly closer to the coast. Scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon
with daytime heating bringing MUCAPE to around 2000-2500 j kg
with enhancement expected across the coastal plain in the
vicinity of the stalled frontal boundary. Pw values will be
approaching 2" and could see brief heavy downpours. Highs today
generally expected in the mid 80s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Wednesday
As of 3 am Tuesday... The area of low pressure will lift north
across the area tonight while gradually filling in as it get
absorbed in stronger SW flow aloft. Showers and thunderstorms
expected to diminish with loss of heating inland but are will
likely continue along the coast east of the low pressure center.

Guidance is suggesting area of dense fog will develop across
inland areas late tonight and spread toward the coast toward
daybreak. Lows tonight expected around 70-75.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
As of 330 am tue... High pressure will be centered off the se
coast Wednesday and Thursday. Could see a lull in precip
coverage Wed with little upper support, with chances increasing
wed night ahead of the approaching cold front. Very warm and
humid wed, with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Challenging forecast Thursday through early in the weekend as a
cold front is set to impact the area. Given the little run to
run consistency in the guidance, a low confidence forecast
continues especially with regards to forecast specifics. The
front will likely push into the northern portions of the area
Thursday, then lift back north Thursday night, before then
slowly pushing back southward and through the rest of the area
fri night into Sat night. The GFS continues to trend much
faster with the frontal passage than the ecmwf, which does not
push through front through the southern areas until Sat night.

Expect best chances of precip will be Thursday with increasing
sw flow aloft ahead of a digging longwave trough across the
central conus, an embedded shortwave progged to lift across the
southeast, and a surface cold front moving into the northern
portions of the area. Low level thicknesses support highs
Thursday in the low mid 80s. Overnight lows in the upper 60s to
mid 70s. Modest instability, 0-6km shear 25-30 kt, and steep low
level lapse rates support TSTM development, with the best
chance for strong storms Thu and Fri during peak heating. Spc
has included most of eastern nc in a marginal risk for severe
storms Thursday, with the potential for some stronger storms
with damaging wind gusts to develop.

A more stable airmass moves in behind the front this weekend
into early next week as high pressure builds in from the north.

Could still see isolated to scattered showers and storms
however, with best chances Saturday, and dependent on the timing
of frontal passage. Temps will be cooler with highs mainly in
the lower 80s with dewpoints dropping into the 60s. Overnight
lows in the 60s inland to low 70s along the coast.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
Short term through tonight
as of 730 am Tuesday... Areas of lifr stratus and fog west of
the highway 17 corridor should dissipate between 13-14z. An area
of low pressure will approach from the sse today and lift
across the area tonight. Showers are already moving onshore
early this morning and expect the trend to continue through the
morning with enhancement of showers and thunderstorms expected
along a stalled frontal boundary across the coastal plain this
afternoon. Showers are expected to dissipate inland tonight with
loss of heating but scattered showers are expected to continue
along or just off the coast tonight. Guidance is suggesting
areas of lifr fog stratus developing across the area late
tonight.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday ...

as of 330 am tue... PredVFR conditions expected much of the
period though patchy late night early morning fog possible each
morning. Also could see isolated to scattered showers or
thunderstorms through the period, especially through peak
heating each day. Thursday will have the best chance of showers
and thunderstorms at the terminals with shortwave energy lifting
across the area.

Marine
Short term through tonight
as of 3 am Tuesday... An area of low pressure off the southeast
coast will lift northwestward today, then lift north across the
area tonight while gradually weakening. Expect predominantly e
winds around 10-20 kt this morning to veer to SE around 10-15
kt this afternoon as the low lifts north toward the area. Winds
continue to veer to S SW tonight as the low is progged to lift
across eastern nc tonight. Wind speeds tonight mainly around
10-15 kt but could be to around 20 kt across the central waters.

Seas currently around 4-7 ft will build about a foot more
today, then very slowly begin to subside tonight.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday ...

as of 330 am mon... High pressure strengthens off the southeast
coast bringing S to SW winds around 5-15 kt Wednesday and
Wednesday night, gusts to 20 kt across the outer central waters
wed night. Seas expected to slowly subside to around 3-5 ft
north and 2-4 ft south by Wednesday evening and continuing
through Thursday. Tough forecast Thursday through the weekend
as a cold front moves into the area. Given the little run to run
consistency with model guidance, low confidence forecast
continues. The front will likely push into the northern waters
Thursday, and could stall near the albemarle sound and northern
waters, then lift back north Thursday night, before then slowly
pushing back southward and through the waters Fri night into sat
night. The GFS continues to trend much faster with the frontal
passage than the ecmwf, which does not push through front
through the southern waters until Sat night. Winds shift behind
the front becoming NE 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. There is
potential to see a stronger surge 15-20 kt with seas building up
to 6 ft behind the front late this weekend.

Hydrology
As of 3 am Tuesday... Rivers levels will continue to gradually
drop over the next several days. Major flooding is still
occurring at the neuse river in kinston with moderate to minor
flooding at other locations along contentnea creek as well as
the neuse and SE CAPE fear rivers in the mhx forecast area. Heed
all local law enforcement instructions and do not drive into
flooded roadways.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz095-098-
103-104.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Wednesday for amz150-152-
154.

Small craft advisory until noon edt Wednesday for amz156.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Wednesday for amz158.

Synopsis... Sk
near term... Sk
short term... Sk
long term... Cqd
aviation... Sk cqd
marine... Sk cqd
hydrology... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 30 mi39 min 77°F 80°F1022.7 hPa
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 38 mi33 min 80°F 80°F1022 hPa
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 40 mi33 min 78°F 79°F1023 hPa
44095 40 mi35 min 78°F8 ft
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 41 mi21 min 78°F6 ft
44086 42 mi26 min 78°F7 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 48 mi36 min 77°F6 ft

Wind History for Oregon Inlet Marina, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC27 mi41 minESE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F72°F86%1023.4 hPa

Wind History from MQI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7NE9NE9E10E10E10E10E11
G15
E8E5E5E5E5SE6E4E4E5E4E6E4E5SE6SE5SE7
1 day agoE9E9E10E10E9E7E8SE7SE7SE5CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE4NE6NE9
2 days agoW4W4CalmCalmSW6SW6SW10S7S6S4S4S5S3S4SE3SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5SE4E5

Tide / Current Tables for Old House Channel, North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Roanoke Sound Channel, North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.