Thursday, June21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fairfield, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:46AMSunset 8:27PM Thursday June 21, 2018 4:23 AM EDT (08:23 UTC) Moonrise 1:20PMMoonset 12:50AM Illumination 55% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 324 Am Edt Thu Jun 21 2018
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms late this morning. A chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SE winds around 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Fri..S winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..NW winds around 10 kt, becoming ne. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairfield, NC
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location: 35.67, -76.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 210726
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
326 am edt Thu jun 21 2018

Synopsis
A front will push into the northern sections this evening and
early Friday, then lift back north late Friday and Friday night.

Another front will move into the region Monday, pushing south of
the area Monday night. High pressure will build into eastern
north carolina Tuesday and Wednesday.

Near term through today
As of 3 am thu... Latest sfc analysis shows weak front over the
northern waters lifting back northward this morning, with high
pressure anchored off the SE us. Shortwave energy moves
offshore early this morning with shortwave ridging ahead of an
upper low moving into the central plains. A backdoor front will
approach from the north through the day but models have slowed
down the timing, not moving into northern sections until this
evening.

Another active wx day expected across eastern nc with scattered
to numerous showers and storms, as well as some heat index
values at or above 105 degrees. SPC has upgraded the area to a
marginal risk of severe wx today and tonight. Atmosphere remains
very moist and unstable with pwat values above 2" and mu capes
around 3000 j kg. Also looks like there will be a little more
shear than last several days, with 0-6 km 15-25 kt, which should
support more organized convection. Expect scattered thunderstorms
to develop this afternoon with main forcing being the sea
breeze and outflow boundary convergence. Then high res models
show more organized convection moving in from the west this
evening. Some strong to severe storms will be possible this
afternoon through the first part of tonight, and damaging wind
gusts, heavy rain and frequent lightning will again be the main
threats.

Hot and humid once again today. Low level thicknesses values
and SW flow support highs temps in the low to mid 90s inland and
upper 80s to low 90s along the coast. With dewpoints similar to
the past several days, low 70s inland and mid upper 70s along
and east of hwy 17, am coming up with a few counties that will
likely see heat index values around 105 degrees this afternoon.

So will issue a heat advisory for carteret, onslow, jones,
craven and pamlico counties. Elsewhere expect heat index values
to remain below 105 deg.

Short term tonight
As of 3 am thu... Surface front will sink southward into the
northern forecast area this evening and tonight while weak lows
develop along it, and as shortwave energy moves in from the west
ahead of the upper low in the mid-west. Sfc front and outflow
boundaries should act as a focus for convective development.

Nssl WRF shows move organized convection pushing into the area
after 00z, and at this time looks like the svr threat could
continue through 06z. Again strong wind gusts, heavy rain and
frequent lightning are the primary threats. Overnight lows in
the 70s.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
As of 325 am Thursday... Hot and humid SW flow is expected to
redevelop Fri and continue through the weekend. A moderately
strong cold front is then forecast to move into eastern nc
Monday, pushing south of the region Monday night. High pressure
will then build into the area from the north Tuesday into
Thursday with temps near or slightly below normal. Decent rain
chances are expected Friday supported by a mid level shortwave.

Broad troughing aloft will keep the threat for convection in the
forecast over the weekend. The cold front will bring even
better chances for precipitation from Sunday night into Monday
night, then much lower but not non zero chances for mainly
diurnally driven showers and storms are expected from Tuesday
into Thursday as high pressure builds over the area from the
north.

Friday through Monday... Unsettled muggy weather is expected
during this period. Shortwave energy should support decent
coverage of showers and thunderstorms into Friday evening. Broad
upper troughing is expected to persist over the area over the
weekend aiding lift of hot humid airmass which will be in place
across the carolinas leading to scattered showers and
thunderstorms. The cold front will continue the threat for
showers and storms Mon mon night.

Tue through thu... The front is forecast to push south of the
region Tue as high pressure builds over the area from the
north through thu. As is typical for this time of year, there
will be enough residual moisture and instability behind the
front to warrant low chance pops each day for a few mainly
diurnally driven showers or storms. Temps will be closer to
normal values in the low to mid 80s.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 3 am thu... Skies will then become partly cloudy overnight,
and winds will be light, which will allow for good radiational
cooling conditions. Some patchy MVFR fog is possible through
early this morning, with best chances at iso and oaj. Any fog
should dissipate quickly after sunrise, andVFR conditions will
return for most of Thursday. Scattered to numerous showers and
storms expected this afternoon and tonight, with periods of sub-
vfr likely.

Long term Friday through Monday ...

as of 325 am Thursday...VFR conditions are expected through
most of the long term, with the exception of occasional subVFR
conditions possible each day in scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 3 am thu... Latest obs show variable winds across the
waters early this morning, becoming pred S SW 5-15kt with seas
2-3 ft. SW winds are expected to increase to 10-20 kt today as
gradients tighten ahead of a frontal boundary approaching from
the north. Winds will be strongest south of oregon inlet
including the pamlico sound. Seas will build to 2 to 4 ft
today, maybe up to 5 ft across the outer central and southern
waters by late afternoon. The front is forecast to push into
the northern waters tonight, then slowly sink southward, though
not likely to make it south of hatteras by early Friday morning.

Winds north of oregon inlet and across the albemarle sound will
shift behind the front tonight, becoming NE E 5-15 kt.

Long term Friday through Monday ...

as of 325 am Thursday... S flow 10 to 15 kt Fri increases to sw
15 to 20 kt Fri night and 20-25 kt late Sat and Sat night. Winds
may briefly decrease to 10-20 kt Sunday then increase to 20-25
kt Sunday night early Monday ahead of the cold front. 2 to 4 ft
seas Fri build to 3 to 5 ft Fri night and sat, then 4 to 6 ft
sat night into early mon.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Heat advisory from 11 am this morning to 7 pm edt this evening
for ncz092>095-098.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Sk cqd
near term... Cqd
short term... Cqd
long term... Jme
aviation... Jme cqd
marine... Jme cqd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 30 mi53 min SW 11 G 13 80°F 82°F1007.8 hPa
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 38 mi53 min SSW 5.1 G 8 78°F 83°F1008.2 hPa
FRFN7 40 mi143 min 1 ft
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 40 mi53 min W 9.9 G 12 78°F 79°F1008 hPa
44095 40 mi65 min 78°F2 ft
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 41 mi53 min 80°F1 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 48 mi38 min 79°F1 ft

Wind History for Oregon Inlet Marina, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC27 mi48 minW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy75°F71°F89%1008.8 hPa

Wind History from MQI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6N7N4N7NE6NE6NE6E5E6CalmCalmCalmE7E8SE3S6S5S4CalmW8S8SW7SW11SW10
1 day agoW4W5W4W6NW6NW6
G16
NW6NW7NW4NW5N3CalmSW7S7S6S4CalmSW6SW6N8N13
G17
N6NE7N7
2 days agoW8W5W7W6W6NW6NW3NW4W3NE5SW4SW9SW13SW6SW6CalmS4W7SW4W6W7W7W5W4

Tide / Current Tables for Old House Channel, North Carolina
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Old House Channel
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:46 AM EDT     0.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:25 AM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:25 PM EDT     0.71 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:10 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.40.50.60.60.60.50.30.20.1000.10.30.50.60.70.70.60.50.30.20.10

Tide / Current Tables for Roanoke Sound Channel, North Carolina
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Roanoke Sound Channel
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:32 AM EDT     0.50 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:28 AM EDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:42 PM EDT     0.50 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:57 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.20.30.40.50.50.40.30.20.10.1000.10.20.30.40.50.50.40.30.20.10.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.