Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for McMinnville, TN
May 20, 2024 5:32 AM CDT (10:32 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:34 AM Sunset 7:47 PM Moonrise 5:14 PM Moonset 3:45 AM |
FXUS64 KOHX 200653 AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 153 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Upper level ridge will continue to build over Middle TN for the start of the week and that will bring quiet and warm weather for us. Highs will be warm once again with them reaching the mid to upper 80s for the afternoon. CAMs do want to bring some widely scattered popup showers over the Plateau this afternoon but soundings show strong substance and these shower chances seem unlikely but afternoon clouds are likely. As for fog early this morning, with slightly drier dew points tonight it should not be as widespread as last night but we still could see some develop in the river valley's and fog prone areas. Upper level ridge will be overhead on Tuesday with more of the same, dry and warm with highs in the 80s to near 90.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Upper level ridge will push east for the extended period and we will start to see shower and thunderstorm chances return to the forecast. An upper level trough and surface low will push through the Great Lakes Wednesday and into Canada on Thursday. This will push a cold front into the area late Wednesday into Thursday. The front will be weakening as it pushes into Middle TN and overall that will limit the forcing with it but we will still see showers and thunderstorms with it. CAPE looks to be 500-1000 j/kg and 0-6 km shear will be marginal for more organized convection but with the weaker forcing the severe threat is overall low. If we were to see any stronger storms wind and hail would be the threats along with heavy rain.
The front will stall out over the region on Thursday with a short wave pushing east over us. This will keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. The front will lift north as a warm front on Saturday. We don't see any strong forcing over the weekend but with the unstable atmosphere shower and thunderstorm chances are going to remain in the forecast.
Temperatures will cool back into the lower 80s Thursday and Friday and will warm back into the mid to upper 80s over the weekend.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Weak ridging will allow for clear skies and calm winds at all sites for most of the period. Light fog may cause visibilities at CSV and SRB to fall into MVFR territory in the early morning hours. Any fog should burn off quickly after sunrise. Winds will be light and out of the south and southwest throughout the day today.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Nashville 88 66 90 68 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 87 65 88 67 / 0 0 0 10 Crossville 81 59 82 62 / 10 0 0 0 Columbia 87 64 87 67 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 83 62 84 64 / 10 0 0 0 Jamestown 82 60 84 63 / 10 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 85 64 86 66 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 87 63 88 66 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 87 66 88 69 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 153 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Upper level ridge will continue to build over Middle TN for the start of the week and that will bring quiet and warm weather for us. Highs will be warm once again with them reaching the mid to upper 80s for the afternoon. CAMs do want to bring some widely scattered popup showers over the Plateau this afternoon but soundings show strong substance and these shower chances seem unlikely but afternoon clouds are likely. As for fog early this morning, with slightly drier dew points tonight it should not be as widespread as last night but we still could see some develop in the river valley's and fog prone areas. Upper level ridge will be overhead on Tuesday with more of the same, dry and warm with highs in the 80s to near 90.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Upper level ridge will push east for the extended period and we will start to see shower and thunderstorm chances return to the forecast. An upper level trough and surface low will push through the Great Lakes Wednesday and into Canada on Thursday. This will push a cold front into the area late Wednesday into Thursday. The front will be weakening as it pushes into Middle TN and overall that will limit the forcing with it but we will still see showers and thunderstorms with it. CAPE looks to be 500-1000 j/kg and 0-6 km shear will be marginal for more organized convection but with the weaker forcing the severe threat is overall low. If we were to see any stronger storms wind and hail would be the threats along with heavy rain.
The front will stall out over the region on Thursday with a short wave pushing east over us. This will keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. The front will lift north as a warm front on Saturday. We don't see any strong forcing over the weekend but with the unstable atmosphere shower and thunderstorm chances are going to remain in the forecast.
Temperatures will cool back into the lower 80s Thursday and Friday and will warm back into the mid to upper 80s over the weekend.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Weak ridging will allow for clear skies and calm winds at all sites for most of the period. Light fog may cause visibilities at CSV and SRB to fall into MVFR territory in the early morning hours. Any fog should burn off quickly after sunrise. Winds will be light and out of the south and southwest throughout the day today.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Nashville 88 66 90 68 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 87 65 88 67 / 0 0 0 10 Crossville 81 59 82 62 / 10 0 0 0 Columbia 87 64 87 67 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 83 62 84 64 / 10 0 0 0 Jamestown 82 60 84 63 / 10 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 85 64 86 66 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 87 63 88 66 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 87 66 88 69 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KRNC WARREN COUNTY MEML,TN | 1 sm | 17 min | calm | 1/2 sm | -- | Mist | 59°F | 59°F | 100% | 29.97 |
Northern Alabama,
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