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FXUS62 KRAH 041335 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 933 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
A series of upper level disturbances will move through the area through Sunday. Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front will stall across the area through tonight, before lifting north into Virginia early Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 933 AM Saturday...

Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms continue to move north- northeast across a semi-stationary front extending along the southern, western, and far northern Piedmont this morning. A pocket of enhanced dew points over the southern Piedmont have fed some weak instability promoting continued lightning activity over Stanly, Cabarrus, and Union counties. Elsewhere in this corridor, stable conditions have mostly precluded thunder. Regardless, a swath of >1.6 inches of PWAT extends through this region, which has allowed for brief heavy downpours and associated isolated pockets of higher rain rates. Additionally, the mean-layer flow is light and oriented quasi-parallel to the frontal boundary promoting slow, n-s moving cells. As such, we've seen some training (and hints of backbuilding)
which has prompted a few flash flood warnings this morning.

An additional series of weak perturbations aloft will traverse over central NC through this evening promoting continued scattered showers and storms. While areas south and east of Raleigh may stay dry through noon, high-res guidance does suggest an uptick in coverage over the Sandhills/southern Coastal Plain early to mid afternoon. Some clearing is already occurring in that vicinity which should enhance instability some later today. Additionally, the plume of anomalous PWAT should extend further east in this period as well. Models do also simulate a weak sfc wave moving through the Sandhills/central Piedmont this afternoon which could also enhance coverage in this vicinity later today/tonight.

Given the slow n-s oriented storm motion embedded within an anomalously moist environment, can't rule out continued chances for isolated instances of flash flooding continuing through tonight.
Don't think we'll see widespread flooding by any means, but given tall-skinny CAPE profiles, warm cloud depths >10,000 ft, and mean- layer flow conducive to slow-moving cells and potential training, isolated instances of flash flooding (especially urban areas) seems plausible today and tonight. Additionally, a stronger vort max currently over GA will ride over central NC late tonight which should continue to promote higher chances for showers and a few storms through early Sunday morning. However, given weak shear not expecting any severe storms to develop today or tonight.

Temperatures today will range between the lower to mid 70s along the NC/VA border (which should stay north of the boundary and locked into cooler enely sfc flow) and lower to mid 80s elsewhere. Warm overnight lows in the mid 60s are expected.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 320 AM Saturday...

The quasi-stationary front sagging across northern portions of the forecast will retreat north early Sunday, leaving all of central NC in the warm sector. The increasingly sheared shortwave trough will exit east of the area during the early afternoon.

Ongoing scattered convection Sunday morning within the continued anomalously moist PWATs should experience some re-newed vigor during the afternoon as weak diurnal buoyancy flares up. Continued weak shear will deter any severe potential. Rainfall amounts will be more equitable Sunday, with 0.2-0.3" expected area-wide.

Under mostly cloud skies, highs ranging from mid/upper 70s north to lower 80s SE. Convection should largely dissipate as BL nocturnally cools and stabilizes. Mild overnight temps in the 60s with stratus likely to re-develop across the area as moisture remains high.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 250 AM Saturday...

The extended forecast will feature a continued chance of unsettled weather to start the week Mon, followed by somewhat drier and hot temperatures by the middle of the week. A potent late-week system/trough looks to increase storm chances again by week's end.

On Monday, models continue to show a shortwave over the TN valley tracking east across the region in the afternoon/evening, before exiting along the coast by Tue morning. A surface Piedmont trough will be in place and combined with 200-percent of normal PW's should favor another day of scattered to perhaps numerous showers and storms, maximizing during peak heating. Instability is between 500- 1000 J/kg but shear is weak, so severe chances are not expected, though slow-moving storms could bring heavy rain. Activity should wane overnight with loss of heating and as the trough slides toward the coast. Highs should hover in the low/mid 80s with higher rain chances and cloud cover.

As the trough moves to our east Tue, weak ridging starts to build in, although the CMC/GFS show a weak perturbation riding along the ridge. With a lack of large-scale forcing, confidence on coverage of storms, if any, is low, such that storm activity should be isolated/scattered in nature and focused along differential heating boundaries and/or the sea-breeze. Highs should warm to the low to upper 80s.

A drier pattern still appears to be favored midweek Wed and part of Thu as ridging and southwest flow builds back into the region. This will also be when the airmass will warm quite a bit with a lee trough setting up east of the Appalachians and low-level thicknesses well above average and highs some 12-15 degrees above normal in the upper 80s to low 90s. The NBM still indicates a 60-80 percent chance of 90 or greater maxT values across portions of the Sandhills, Triangle region, and Coastal Plain during this period. Heat index value could reach the mid 90s over these areas, making for an early taste of summer. While this period looks drier, most guidance shows a developing trough over the upper MS valley Thu, with solutions indicating a decent plume of moisture tied to a perturbation advecting ahead of a cold front draped over the OH valley. This would favor better chances of isolated/scattered storms Thu aftn/eve with higher instability coupled to higher shear.

Although model solutions diverge by late in the week with a frontal system location, there is broad consensus that chances of storms appear to remain elevated to close out the week as the trough slides closer to the TN/OH valley and Great Lakes region with instability/shear still favorable over the Carolinas.

AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 640 AM Saturday...

A back-door cold front, noted by a E-NELY wind shift, will stall across the area today and this evening, before lifting north into Virginia tonight and into early Sunday. Moisture pooling and convergence will lead to the development of LIFR to MVFR ceilings across the area this morning, impacting all TAF sites.

Flight restrictions at KFAY, KRDU, and KRWI should gradually lift to VFR from south to north through 17-18z, with scattered showers and storms possible during the afternoon and evening, mainly at KRDU.

At KGSO and KINT, ceilings could remain IFR to MVFR through the afternoon and evening as intermittent showers and embedded storms repeatedly re-develop and move through the area through tonight.

LIFR to MVFR restrictions, primarily from ceilings, will re-develop and spread south between 00 to 06z, lowest at KINt and KGSO where the deepest moisture resides. -CBL

Outlook: IFR-MVFR ceilings are likely to redevelop each night- morning through Monday, as are scattered to locally numerous showers/storms each afternoon-evening. -MWS

CLIMATE

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 4: KGSO: 65/2022 KRDU: 68/1938 KFAY: 68/1942

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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