Sunday, September23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Apex, NC

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 7:11PM Sunday September 23, 2018 9:30 PM EDT (01:30 UTC) Moonrise 5:48PMMoonset 4:28AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Apex, NC
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location: 35.74, -78.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 232328
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
728 pm edt Sun sep 23 2018

Synopsis
A backdoor cold front will sag slowly southward through the area
today. Behind the front, cool high pressure will extend southward
through central north carolina through Tuesday. Weak low pressure
will track northward over coastal north carolina Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
As of 255 pm Sunday...

the low level stable pool remains over the N piedmont at this hour,
topped with high thin clouds streaking across N W nc. But as the
last few cam runs have foretold, the low clouds have begun to break
up, and recent GOES channel 2 vis imagery reveals stable wave clouds
in this region, with convective clouds along its S E edge. We're
finally starting to see some shallow showers along the differential
heating zone at the edge of the wedge front, from around scotland
neck SW near rwi and tta. This is along a narrow zone of marginal
cape and around 25 kts of effective shear, and as these should both
be maintained for a few more hours, we should continue to see
scattered showers and perhaps an isolated storm or two through the
rest of the afternoon. Loss of heating should result in a
diminishing of the convection, and a backing of weak steering flow
to a sse direction should prompt a drift of any remaining isolated
convection into the NW piedmont through the rest of the evening.

Weak moist upglide that has abated for much of the day is expected
to resume this evening, resulting in the low clouds filling back in
tonight, with the thickest lowest clouds across the climatologically-
favored piedmont, an area that may also see patchy drizzle
overnight. Expect lows mostly in the low-mid 60s, perhaps some upper
60s se. -gih

Short term Monday and Monday night
As of 340 pm Sunday...

the offshore-centered mid level anticyclone will build briefly w
over the eastern carolinas mon, while the surface ridge centered and
drifting E over the canadian maritimes noses ssw through central nc.

Strengthening onshore low level flow from the SE will result in
increasing moist upglide atop the weakening stable wedge, and recent
model runs generally indicate patchy light rain breaking out over e
nc (where upglide is initially strongest) before spreading inland
into central nc through the day. Will start the day mostly cloudy to
cloudy areawide, with chance pops east early, spreading NW through
the area through the day, before decreasing and diminishing mon
night. Cloudiness will hold firm Mon night given the weak flow and
moist and somewhat stable low levels overnight. Expect highs from
around 70 NW to the low 80s se, followed by lows in the mid to upper
60s. -gih

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
As of 345 pm Sunday...

Tuesday morning the cad will begin to loose its grip over the
triad as a wave pulls northeast around a subtropical ridge
anchored off the east coast. As this occurs, the wedge will
start to fall apart and loose cohesion. High temperatures
Tuesday will quickly rebound with 850 mb temperatures
approaching 18 degrees c towards the coastal plain.

Simultaneously,an axis of PV will be located over the
mountains of western north carolina. This again will make for a
bimodal distribution in QPF Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday
morning. The chance of precipitation looks to move towards a
minimum Wednesday morning as the wave and aforementioned pv
exits the area. This should provide a brief period of
subsidence.

Wednesday evening, a long wave trough axis will center over the
central united states with an upper level disturbance pulling
northeast. The wave will quickly pull northeast though towards
lake ontario. The main batch of PV will miss nc, but pwats will
climb towards 2.00" along with an approaching upper level jet
streak. This will help to increase the chance of precipitation
Wednesday evening and keep it going through Friday. The initial
shortwave mentioned above will cause a cold front to stall and
washout across the area late Wednesday. The ECMWF actually holds
onto the front as a wedge signal late Thursday, while the gfs
(and cmc) are much weaker with the front.

A secondary shortwave traversing northern ontario late Thursday
into early Friday will be stronger than the initial wave, but
further north. This second wave will be followed by another
surface cold front. The GFS is slightly quicker and stronger
with the front compared to the ecmwf. Cooler and drier air will
exist with this front, but is nothing compared to what is was
advertised as in previous model runs. The secondary shortwave
now looks to eject far to northeast with the rex block off the
west coast of the u.S finally dislodging allowing for low
pressure to deepen. These dropping heights off the west coast of
the united states will only aide in the demise of the long wave
trough. This means that even behind the cold front temperatures
will still be near to above normal.

Aviation 00z Monday through Saturday
As of 727 pm Sunday...

24 hour TAF period: cad wedge remains in place across the nw
resulting in sub-vfr conditions at kint and kgso (ifr), extending as
far east as krdu and krwi (MVFR). With sunset, expect a return to
ifr conditions, which are expected to linger into the late morning,
lifting back to MVFRVFR during the aft eve. Further east and south
(kfay)VFR conditions remain, though expect MVFR ifr CIGS to move in
overnight and linger into the morning. Generally NE winds across the
area will remain around 3-6 kts overnight, increasing to 5-10 kts
Monday. -kc
looking ahead: a return to ifr is expected Mon night areawide,
followed by another slow improvement toVFR tue, with a chance of
showers and storms, greatest at rwi fay. Clouds and the shower storm
coverage will increase for Wed Thu Fri as a front approaches from
the NW and stalls over the region. -gih

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Hartfield
near term... Hartfield
short term... Hartfield
long term... Haines
aviation... Kc hartfield


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC11 mi39 minNE 710.00 miOvercast67°F64°F91%1020.8 hPa
Sanford, Sanford-Lee County Regional Airport, NC17 mi35 minNNE 510.00 miLight Rain68°F66°F93%1020.3 hPa

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Last 24hrE3SE4S3CalmSE3W4CalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE45N3N55N5N7NE6N7N8NE6NE6NE7
1 day agoS4S4S5CalmS4SW5SW4SW4SW6SW4SW5SW6SW8SW6W5SW3E34CalmCalmS5SE4SE4SE4
2 days agoSE7SE8SE6SE6S6SE5S4S3CalmCalm3SE7S6S4S5W6SE6SW5SE6S7S55S6S3

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.