Tuesday, December11, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Apex, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 5:03PM Tuesday December 11, 2018 11:58 PM EST (04:58 UTC) Moonrise 10:35AMMoonset 9:00PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Apex, NC
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location: 35.74, -78.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 120235
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
935 pm est Tue dec 11 2018

Synopsis
High pressure over the area will keep conditions cool and dry
through Thursday. A low pressure system will approach from the
southwest Friday, bringing unsettled conditions into the weekend.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
As of 930 pm Tuesday...

Winter weather advisory for black ice in effect until 11 am
Wednesday...

infrared satellite imagery shows crystal clear skies
indicating the arrival of high pressure over central nc, also
evidenced by the lack of wind over the area. These two facts will
set up an ideal situation for radiational cooling overnight. We are
already down into the upper 20s in some rural locations and we
expect to see upper if not mid teens in some locations along the va
border to lower 20s anywhere north of highway 64. There may be some
upper 20s across the southeastern counties but regardless, a very
chilly night expected. Not expecting any problems with visibilities,
even though there is a snow pack in some locations. This is due to
the very dry low levels that were evident on the 00z gso sounding.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Thursday
As of 326 am Tuesday...

dry and chilly high pressure will allow for the the freeze, thaw,
freeze pattern to continue through Thursday morning. A gradual
warming trend will also commence, with highs expected to climb 3 to
5 degrees each afternoon, possibly limited a bit by overspreading
high clouds.

Expect partly sunny skies Wednesday with highs in the 40s (low 50s
south). Another cold night is expected Wednesday night, with
refreezing once again possible, especially over the northwestern
piedmont. The lows will depend on the amount of high level
cloudiness that remains, primarily dipping into the 20s to near
30 in the se.

Mostly cloudy skies are expected Thursday with a light return ssw
flow. Highs 45-50 north, 50s elsewhere.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
As of 259 pm Tuesday...

one last day of fair weather later this week will occur on Thursday,
before a wet storm system moves across Friday and Saturday. High
pressure will gradually retreat during the day Thursday, and we
should see temps climb to seasonable readings... Highs in the lower
50s.

Some of the main players in Friday Saturday's storm system include
the closed low currently approaching the northern baja region, and a
northern stream short wave currently approaching the pac nw. Both
systems will combine to create a potent closed mid level low over
the southern plains on Thursday, and the resulting sfc low will
gradually shift ene through the weekend. A 50kt LLJ ahead of this
system will transport abundant gulf and atlantic moisture (and a
warmer airmass that will preclude any p-type issues) northward
across the carolina's, which will set the stage for a potential
moderate to heavy rain event that will begin Friday morning and last
through Saturday. Today's 12z guidance package would suggest a 1-2.5
inch QPF event, however it's worth pointing out that the latest
ecmwf is wetter, ESP across the eastern portion of the state. Given
these sorts of potential rain amounts, combined with melting snow
across the norther piedmont, the risk for an areal and then a river
flood event looks quite possible. Many of the mmefs ensemble river
forecast suggest a minor to moderate river flood event for many of
the main stem rivers across central and eastern nc over the weekend
into early next week.

The aforementioned storm system is expected to exit by Sunday
morning, with w-nw flow and a drier airmass in its wake. Look for
dry weather through at least the first half of next week.

Temps will generally moderate ahead of the approaching storm system
late in the week, however the rain and cad will keep temps just
below normal across the piedmont through the duration of the storm
system. Westerly flow in the wake of the storm will result in above
normal temps Sunday and Monday, but with high pressure building to
our north, look for northerly low level flow and a cooling trend for
Tuesday.

Finally, given the snow pack across the northern piedmont, some
dense fog is possible late in the week with the warm moist air
moving northward across the colder ground.

Aviation 00z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 630 pm Tuesday...

24 hour TAF period:VFR conditions through the TAF period as high
pressure moves overhead. Expect light and variable winds with a few
passing high clouds. No visibility restrictions expected overnight,
however given the existing snow pack, would not be surprised to see
a few patchy areas of fog, particularly at kint and kgso.

Long term: high pressure remains over the area Wednesday and then
increasing clouds as easterly flow takes over on Thursday as the
high shifts to the northeast. A low pressure system will affect the
area beginning on Friday through at least Sunday morning. All
precipitation is expected to be in the liquid form for this event.

Rah watches warnings advisories
Winter weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 11 am est
Wednesday for ncz007>009-021>025-038>041.

Synopsis... Ellis
near term... Ellis
short term... Jm
long term... Np
aviation... Ellis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC11 mi68 minWSW 410.00 miFair31°F23°F72%1020.8 hPa
Sanford, Sanford-Lee County Regional Airport, NC17 mi79 minN 010.00 miFair27°F26°F98%1020.7 hPa

Wind History from RDU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4N3N4N4N43CalmCalmN4N4NW6W73NW6W5W5CalmCalmW5W4SW3CalmSW4Calm
1 day agoNE11NE12
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NE8N8N8N9N7N8N6N5N4NE5N4N5N4NE5NE5CalmNE5N4N6
2 days agoNE10
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G18

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Tue -- 12:37 AM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:50 AM EST     1.22 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:27 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:33 PM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:00 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:16 PM EST     1.38 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:58 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.10.30.711.21.21.10.90.60.40.20.10.10.30.71.11.31.41.41.20.90.70.4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.