Sunrise 6:11 AM   Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 7:50 AM   Moonset 11:25 PM

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FXUS62 KRAH 111449 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1045 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

SYNOPSIS
A surface trough and upper level disturbance will move across the Mid Atlantic region this evening. High pressure will build across the Southeast and Mid Atlantic region on Sunday, then shift off the Southeast coast Monday. A storm system will move in from the west Monday night through Wednesday, bringing periods of rainy weather.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1045 AM Saturday...

Minimal changes this morning, mainly spatial and timing tweaks to evening shower chances over N into central sections. A strong shortwave trough over lower MI this morning and a potent upper jet streak diving into the trough base from the Midwest is generating strong forcing for ascent from SE Ontario through the E Ohio Valley, contributing to a band of showers with embedded fairly robust convection from Lk Erie through E OH. As this shortwave trough and its preceding moisture plume dive SE through the Mid Atlantic through this evening, we'll see our current fair skies (save for some lingering stratocu in the Coastal Plain) yield to increasing clouds in the NW late, with isolated to scattered showers swinging through areas along and N of Hwy 64, leading to little more than a few hundredths falling over an hour or less in any given location.
Until then, we're already seeing cu popping up to our NW and stable cloud streets in the Coastal Plain, so have nudged afternoon sky cover up a bit. Expect highs in the low-mid 70s. -GIH

Earlier discussion from 345 AM: Surface observations depict a region of higher low-level moisture associated with a weak inverted trough over the Coastal Plain and far NE Piedmont, as the parent low is centered east of the NC coast. Current dew points there are in the mid-to-upper-50s. A deck of stratocumulus has moved south of our southern Coastal Plain, with more areas of stratocumulus over eastern VA that will move into the Coastal Plain through the morning. However, any associated showers have dissipated. Northerly winds were gusting as high as 25-35 mph at times earlier this evening, especially over the Coastal Plain, but they have subsided with many areas now reporting calm or very light winds.

Looking aloft, water vapor imagery shows a pair of shortwaves, one just off the mid-Atlantic coast, while the other is over WI and the upper peninsula of MI. During the day today, we will be under the influence of dry WNW flow and height rises as the former shortwave exits NE into the Atlantic, with just some scattered cumulus below the subsident inversion at 700 mb. It will be a very pleasant afternoon with highs only reaching the lower-to-mid-70s (around 5 degrees below normal) and dew points only in the 40s.

However, as the latter shortwave moves SE and reaches the northern Mid-Atlantic by Saturday night/Sunday morning, we could experience some weak mid-level height falls on Saturday evening. A surface trough will also be passing through and there will be a period of WAA around 850 mb. So a deck of clouds around 5-10 kft is likely to move through from NW to SE in the evening, and CAMS suggest it could be accompanied by a band of showers/sprinkles. However, the best upper forcing will be well to our north and there will be very little to no instability to speak of with CAPE values around 100 J/kg or less. So any showers should be light and brief, with total amounts less than a tenth of an inch. The entire area will be mostly clear after about 06z, which should be favorable for any additional aurora viewing, and lows will again drop into the upper-40s to mid- 50s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 400 AM Saturday...

Dry NW flow will prevail on Sunday between the departing mid/upper trough over the Northeast US and ridging over the lower MS Valley.
At the surface, high pressure will move east from the TN Valley to become centered over the mid-Atlantic on Monday morning. This pattern will support sunny skies and another very pleasant day, as dew points are again only in the 40s (some statistical guidance even shows some upper-30s in the far NW Piedmont). NW winds could gust up to 15-25 mph during the day with good mixing. High temperatures will range from mid-70s to 80. Decent radiational cooling conditions will help lows Sunday night drop to the mid-40s to lower-50s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 315 AM Saturday...

Monday morning will find surface high pressure moving off the mid- Atlantic states along with an upper level ridge moving over the eastern United States. However, another upper level trough over the central Plains will move east, helping to form a surface low over southern Illinois by Tuesday morning. The bulk of the rain will fall ahead of this low, and although Monday will remain dry, western locations should have rain move in Monday night and the showers will expand everywhere Tuesday. It's too early to look at particular rainfall amounts, but the heaviest rain is currently forecast for Tuesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will continue Tuesday night into Wednesday as the surface low moves over Washington DC and moves offshore New Jersey by Wednesday evening. This should bring a lull in precipitation Wednesday night through Thursday night before another system moves east from the Plains. Some model guidance wants to go with likely to categorical pops on Friday, but am not willing to go with pops that high on day 7 and will cap pops at high chance.
Average temperatures this time of year are generally around 80 and 60, and forecast temperatures are generally around these numbers, although highs will be a little cooler on Tuesday with the widespread rain.

AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 650 AM Saturday...

Dry weather and VFR conditions will prevail across central NC through this afternoon, with the one exception of some lingering stratocumulus over the far NE Piedmont and Coastal Plain (including RWI) which has resulted in periods of MVFR and even isolated IFR ceilings. This will dissipate by mid morning. Then a deck of clouds from about 6-10 kft will move across central NC from NW to SE this evening, and it may be accompanied by a band of showers with the best chance at the northern TAF sites. Confidence in any brief sub- VFR visibilities with the showers is low, but it cannot be entirely ruled out. Any precipitation will exit by 06z Sunday with clear skies the rest of the night. Northerly winds this morning will become more westerly/southwesterly by this afternoon and evening, remaining less than 10 kts sustained and possibly gusting up to 15 kts at times during the day.

Outlook: Rain and IFR-MVFR restrictions, lowest over the Piedmont at INT/GSO, will overspread cntl NC Tue morning, with a following chances of showers/storms Tue afternoon through Wed.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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