Monday, November20, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Rutherford College, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 5:17PM Monday November 20, 2017 10:37 AM EST (15:37 UTC) Moonrise 8:49AMMoonset 7:11PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rutherford College, NC
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location: 35.75, -81.54     debug

Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 201459
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
959 am est Mon nov 20 2017

Cool high pressure will move in before a weak cold front crosses the
area Tuesday night. Low pressure will develop along the gulf coast
Thursday and up the atlantic seaboard through Friday. Another strong
cold front will arrive next weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 930 am est Monday: very few changes to the grids this morning,
mainly just updates to hourly t TD trends. Skies are clear with some
cirrus starting to move toward E tn. Overall a very quiet day.

Otherwise, the center of the high moves east across the area today
with light SW wind developing during the afternoon. Cirrus will
infiltrate the area from the west during the day as well. Highs will
be up to 5 degrees below normal.

High pressure remains ridged into the area from the east tonight as
an upper trough approaches from the west. Cirrus increases in
coverage and thickens through the night, but the bigger story is the
increase in low level moisture from the SW after midnight. Some of
the guidance is producing precip before daybreak. There could be
some mechanical upslope lift in the southwesterly flow. However, the
moisture is very shallow and isentropic lift remains south of the
area until after daybreak. Therefore, continued the dry forecast but
did increase clouds from the SW after midnight. The guidance has
come in slightly warmer for lows, and this seems reasonable given
the increasing cloud cover. Lows will be up to 5 degrees below
normal, but many locations will be only a couple of degrees colder.

Short term Tuesday through Thursday
As of 230 am mon: high pressure moves further off the atlantic
coast on Tuesday as an upper trough dips into the ohio valley. In
response, moist southerly flow sets up over the carolinas and
georgia. Similar to Saturday's isentropic event, the flow is
a bit veered relative to the pressure gradient. Clouds should
easily be generated but unsurprisingly QPF response is fairly
small overall. Hence only low pops are being included in the
fcst. Mechanical lift along the south-facing escarpment is likely to
be a factor, and temperatures there are expected to be right around
freezing at daybreak. However, the better moisture does not advect
in until later in the morning, and therefore freezing rain is not
anticipated. MAX temps will remain a couple degrees below normal.

The aforementioned trough swings east Tuesday night and will drive
a weak cold front into the nc mtns early Wed morning. Moisture
is too shallow to expect any upslope-driven precip at that
time. The front weakly pushes across the remainder of the
area Wednesday; downsloping and more sunshine will help temps
rebound to about normal. A cold, dry sfc high expands out of the
mississippi valley and onto the eastern seaboard in the wake of
this front. Accordingly, with northeasterly flow, temps tumble for
Thursday. Mins return to near or below freezing over the nc mtns and
nw piedmont, and top out only 5-7 degrees below normal area-wide.

There continues to be some discrepancy between global models on
the evolution and timing of a shortwave trough diving into the
deep south near the end of the short-range period. The GFS cuts
off the wave but continues its trend of suggesting the resulting
lift and moisture advection will remain south of the area. The ec
is slower and drier in its depiction. Hence the forecast remains
virtually dry thru Thursday.

Long term Thursday night through Sunday
As of 100 am est Monday: the notably quiet medium range begins
thanksgiving night as an upper trough axis crosses the forecast
area. At the surface, high pressure will slide in across the
carolinas as a series of coastal lows drifts across florida and hugs
the carolina coast. Guidance has been inconsistent with the handling
of the track of these low pressure systems, with previous runs
depicting scenarios in which some gulf moisture is shunted into our
area. With the upper trough and cold air solidly in place over the
area on Thursday night and Friday morning, any moisture able to make
it this far north may present some wintry p-type issues. Confidence
is increasing that the moisture will remain to the south and east of
our area at the moment, though, so have kept pops unmentionable for
the time being.

The overall pattern will remain progressive through the medium
range, with another upper trough arriving over the eastern conus
Saturday and Sunday. The next low pressure system will pass well to
our north on Sunday, with just a slight chance of wringing out
enough moisture in the higher elevations for some isolated NW flow
snow showers. Colder air will then advance behind what will be a dry
front for the majority of our area next Monday. Temperatures will
hover near or just below average for the majority of the medium

Aviation 15z Monday through Friday
At kclt and elsewhere: no changes to the kclt TAF for the 15z
amd. Mainly light N winds become S to SW for the afternoon. Light s
or light and variable wind expected overnight. Cirrus will increase
and thicken through the period. Low level moisture increases from
the SW after midnight with lowVFR clouds moving into the sc sites
by daybreak.

Outlook: increasing low level moisture could result in cig
restrictions and perhaps -ra on Tue tue night. Otherwise, dry cool
conditions should persist into late week.

Confidence table...

17-23z 23-05z 05-11z 11-12z
kclt high 87% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgsp high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kavl high 94% high 100% high 100% high 100%
khky high 100% high 100% high 100% low 58%
kgmu high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kand high 94% high 100% high 100% high 83%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hickory, Hickory Regional Airport, NC9 mi44 minN 010.00 miFair42°F27°F55%1024.3 hPa

Wind History from MRN (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmE3S4CalmCalmSE3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3
1 day agoW7NW6W6NW4N7NW8N5NW4NW7SW5W4CalmCalmCalmCalmW3N4CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.