Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rutherford College, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:31AMSunset 5:45PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 4:43 PM EST (21:43 UTC) Moonrise 8:53PMMoonset 9:31AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rutherford College, NC
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location: 35.75, -81.54     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 231931
afdgsp
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
231 pm est Wed jan 23 2019

Synopsis
Widespread rainfall is expected tonight and overnight as a cold
front pushes through the forecast area from the west. In its wake,
another cold canadian high will spread back over the region to
end the work week and linger into the weekend.

Near term through Thursday
As of 120 pm: wedge erosion has begun south of i-85. Expect this
trend to slowly continue, but erosion may not take place near the
blue ridge escarpment until the cold front moves in from the west
later tonight. Late afternoon winds and temps will be highly
dependent on where the erosion takes place with filtered sunshine,
southerly wind, and warming temps with erosion. Low clouds, areas of
fog, NE wind where the wedge holds. In fact, patchy dense fog could
develop as this often happens right before wedge erosion.

Strong forcing expected tonight as a strong short wave moves through
the deep upper trough in place over the eastern CONUS and pushes a
relatively strong cold front across the area. A strong low level jet
moves in ahead of the front keeping very gusty winds across the
higher elevations. Will extend the wind advisory until midnight when
the jet should move east of the higher elevations. Gusty winds
develop outside of the mountains as S to SW winds increase ahead of
the cold front. Strong upper divergence develops across the area as
well as the right entrance region of the upper jet moves in. There
is little to no elevated instability keeping thunder chances near
nil. However, there will be quite a bit of precip with the strong
forcing and well above climo pw values. Expect 1 to 3 inches across
the mountains with the highest amounts along and near the blue ridge
escarpment along the nc ga sc borders. While flash flooding is
unlikely, main stem river flooding is certainly possible. Small
stream in that area could also see minor flooding. Around an inch of
precip expected elsewhere with only isolated flooding at most. Night
time lows will likely be early in the period for most of the area
with a non-diurnal trend given the warming ahead of the cold front
and cad erosion. Mountain locations may see cooling by daybreak
behind the front.

Precip will come to an end during the morning for most locations as
the front moves east of the area and a drier and colder air mass
moves in. Winds will shift to westerly with low end gusts
continuing. Skies will clear as well. Light NW flow snow is expected
to develop across the higher elevations near the tn border late
tonight through early afternoon Thursday. Moisture dries up quickly
during the afternoon. CAA is good but not very strong. The NW winds
are also not very strong, suggesting a weak and short lived event.

Do not expect more than an inch in the usual high elevation
locations. Highs should be early in the day for most locations with
a non-diurnal or shortened diurnal temp trend.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday
As of 210 pm Wednesday: the eastern CONUS will be under the
influence of a long wave trough through the short term, resulting in
below normal temps and generally dry weather through the period.

Temps will generally average 5-10 degrees below climo. The only
notable chance for precip during the late week period will be late
Thursday night early Friday, when W NW flow acting on a relatively
shallow, but cold moist layer near the surface should generate at
least areas of flurries, if not scattered snow showers along the
tennessee border. However, ingredients as advertised by the latest
short term guidance should be inadequate to support much more than
minimal accums.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
As of 220 pm Wednesday: the long wave trough over the east will
de-amplify early in the period, briefly becoming displaced by
low-amplitude ridging early next week, before a series of potent
short waves carve out another deep trough over the region by the
middle of next week.

In the interim, a clipper-like system could bring a spit or two of
rain and or snow, mainly to the mtns in the late Sat night through
early Sunday night period, with minimal QPF expected. More
substantial precip chances may exist Monday night through early wed,
during which time the cold front associated with the resurgent
eastern trough is expected to impact the area. However, global model
guidance it at odds regarding timing as well as magnitude coverage
of associated precipitation. Meanwhile, at least one deterministic
guidance source is hinting at the potential of surface wave
development additional precip chances in the wake of the front. All
these things considered, we have generally sided with token slight
to low chance pops from late Monday night through the end of the
period.

Deamplification of the pattern will allow temps to return to near,
or even above climo early next week, with another intrusion of
arctic air appearing likely on day 7.

Aviation 20z Wednesday through Monday
At kclt and elsewhere: low clouds and patchy fog, rain, and drizzle
will continue through the afternoon. Expect generally ifr CIGS with
MVFR vsby where precip moves through. Light winds will turn SE then
s to SW through the day as the wedge erodes and a cold front
approaches. Llws will continue until the surface winds turn. Winds
will be gusty as well. Expect moderate to heavy showers to move in
overnight with ifr CIGS and MVFR to ifr vsby. Winds turn SW then wnw
to nnw after daybreak as the front moves through and precip ends.

Gusts will continue, but not as strong as ahead of the front. Skies
will clear through the day, but low clouds may linger a little
longer at kavl.

Outlook: following the cold front, another cold, dry high pressure
system returns to end the week. A series of weak clipper systems
may affect parts of the region early next week, with precip and
restrictions most likely in the mtns if these materialize.

Confidence table...

19-01z 01-07z 07-13z 13-18z
kclt med 78% high 91% high 84% med 72%
kgsp high 87% high 92% med 78% med 76%
kavl med 70% med 71% low 42% low 58%
khky high 80% med 79% med 72% med 62%
kgmu med 77% high 92% med 68% med 69%
kand high 86% high 84% high 81% med 67%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Morganton-Lenoir Airport, NC6 mi83 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist38°F37°F97%1020.3 hPa
Hickory, Hickory Regional Airport, NC9 mi3.8 hrsN 00.50 miFog/Mist34°F30°F87%1022.7 hPa

Wind History from MRN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmN3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE3CalmCalm
2 days agoNW14
G21
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NW7NW4NW8
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N6N5N8
G15
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NW7
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NW9N11
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N4NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.