Sunday, July22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rutherford College, NC

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Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 8:40PM Sunday July 22, 2018 10:03 AM EDT (14:03 UTC) Moonrise 3:31PMMoonset 1:29AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rutherford College, NC
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location: 35.75, -81.54     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 221054
afdgsp
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
654 am edt Sun jul 22 2018

Synopsis
A broad upper low will drop south across the ohio valley today, then
settle across the deep south Monday through Wednesday. This low
will remain nearly stationary and support moist unsettled weather
across the region. The low will weaken late in the week, as another
cold front approaches from the northwest.

Near term through tonight
As of 650 am: the western carolinas and northeast ga will be
positioned to the west of the deep moisture associated with broad
warm conveyor belt region, and to the east of the mid-level
deformation zone through tonight. However, this should allow most of
our area to receive decent insolation later today, although temps
will remain a couple of degrees below climo under the anomalously
low heights. Despite significantly weaker mid-level lapse rates, the
atmosphere is expected to become moderately unstable this afternoon.

Thus, the favorable location to the east of the upper trough axis,
the approach of the next mid-level speed MAX rotating around the
cyclone, along with W NW low level upslope flow across the tn
valley southern appalachians should allow the high terrain to light
up with numerous convective coverage by mid-afternoon. Mean W sw
winds in the cloud-bearing layer will tend to sweep high terrain
convection into the nc foothills and western piedmont by late
afternoon, so while likely pops are carried north of i-85 in nc,
pops taper to only 30% across much of the northeast ga and upstate
piedmont.

Establishment of weaker mid upper level flow in the vicinity of the
trough axis, along with generally unidirectional profiles will shunt
the substantive shear east of our area today, which combined with
anticipated modest levels of instability will limit the severe
convective potential to perhaps a couple of pulse events, certainly
much less of a threat than on Saturday. Locally heavy rainfall may
be of slightly higher concern, but even then, pwats will be quite
subdued through the near term, basically right around climo.

Convection will diminish in coverage through the evening, but
gradually developing low level southeast flow may allow for showers to
linger near the escarpment into Monday morning. Min temps are
expected to be a bit below climo.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night
As of 300 am edt Sunday: an upper low will continue to slowly drift
south and weaken Monday, settling roughly over central ga by
Tuesday. This will keep the forecast area within a favorable region
for weak, though persistent deep-layer q-vector convergence. The low-
level flow will gradually back from southwesterly to southeasterly
by late Monday, bringing in atlantic moisture into the region. The
00z models seem to be shifting a bit east with the plume of very
moist pwats, keeping it along the mid-atlantic coast. We should
still have periods of numerous showers with some embedded tstms,
capable of producing torrential downpours. Isolated flooding
concerns will likely exist starting Monday evening thru at least
Tuesday night, perhaps more focused across the eastern half of the
cwfa. Temps will feature a below average diurnal range under plenty
of clouds. Highs a couple categories below normal and lows at or
slightly above normal.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
As of 330 edt am Sunday: the weak upper low over the southeast will
finally open up and shear out, as a northern stream trough digs into
the great lakes on Wednesday. That trough may close into another
upper low and stall out, keeping a trough axis just west of the
cwfa thru the end of the work week. An associated cold front will
push in from the NW and stall out along a sw-ne axis across the
southeast. This will likely keep above climo pops thru at least
Friday. The latest GFS and ECMWF keep unsettled weather across the
cwfa right thru next weekend. Overall, temps are expected to return
to near climo and convection should be more diurnally driven than
during the middle of this week.

Aviation 12z Sunday through Thursday
Amd not sked carried at kand due to ASOS outage...

at kclt and elsewhere: ifr lifr stratocu is wafting around the area
this morning, and will be most likely at the upstate sc terminals,
but cannot be ruled out anywhere. As such, most terminals receive a
tempo for sct ifr lifr clouds for the first 1-2 hours of the
forecast period. The most likely site to see a cig will be kgmu, as
satellite imagery indicates the stratus is just a couple of miles
from the terminal, although it's been holding steady there for
several hours.

Otherwise, scattered to numerous coverage of convection is
anticipated again this afternoon evening, with the best chances
existing across the nc mtns foothills, warranting categorical
mention of shra vcts at kavl and khky this afternoon, with prob30s
elsewhere. The potential exists for multiple rounds of showers and
storms at all terminals later today, so the convective mention is
carried for 6+ hours at most sites. Lingering low level moisture
will pose another threat of fog and or patchy low CIGS early Monday,
but restrictions will be most likely in areas that receive rainfall
this afternoon evening. Since we don't know that for sure attm, will
generally pass the buck for adding late night early Monday
restrictions.

Outlook: an active wet period is expected to continue through the
middle part of next week as a slow-moving storm system impacts much
of the east. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected during
this period. While there will likely be an afternoon evening peak in
coverage on most days, higher-than-normal chances will also exist
during the overnight and morning hours.

Confidence table...

11-17z 17-23z 23-05z 05-06z
kclt med 75% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgsp high 87% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kavl med 69% high 100% high 100% med 75%
khky high 94% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgmu high 94% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kand med 62% high 100% high 100% high 100%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hickory, Hickory Regional Airport, NC9 mi70 minWNW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F68°F90%1006.6 hPa

Wind History from MRN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4CalmCalmSW3CalmSW6S3SW5SW14
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--Calm--W3W3SW5Calm--------------Calm
1 day agoCalmN6NW5N3CalmE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmNW8
G14
2 days agoN3CalmCalmNW4N3CalmNW4NW4NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.