Friday, October19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rutherford College, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:36AMSunset 6:46PM Friday October 19, 2018 7:33 PM EDT (23:33 UTC) Moonrise 3:26PMMoonset 1:33AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rutherford College, NC
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location: 35.75, -81.54     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 191846
afdgsp
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
246 pm edt Fri oct 19 2018

Synopsis
A narrow band of showers crosses our region ahead of a cold front on
Saturday. Much cooler and drier air arrives behind the front
Saturday night through Sunday. The dry and cool air will linger into
the early part of the week before the weather becomes more unsettled
by late week.

Near term through Saturday
As of 225 pm... A vigorous upper trough continues to dive into the
upper midwest, while a flat ridge exits off the east coast. This
will set up a very brief period of west-southwesterly upglide flow
this evening thru Saturday morning. There are two areas of rh
associated with this, one over central ga and the other across the
southern plains to the midwest. The former will bring in some
stratocu across the southern half or so of the forecast area this
evening, while the latter will bring in more widespread cloud cover
ahead of an approaching cold front later tonight. The clouds will
keep min temps elevated about 10-15 degrees above normal. Showers
along and ahead of an approaching cold front will enter the nc
mountains before daybreak. The high-res guidance agrees that this
activity will struggle to survive over the mountains to the
piedmont. So pops reflect categorical along the tn line to slight
chc in the western upstate. There will be little, if any CAPE with
the front; no thunder is expected and QPF will be light.

The front should pass quickly thru the forecast area on Saturday,
ushering in strong low-level CAA by midafternoon. Skies will start
to clear, and nwly downslope flow will negate some of the caa
initially east of the mountains. So it will be a tricky MAX temp
forecast. For now, going with superblend, which keeps temps in the
50s to mid 60s in the mountains, but still getting to the upper 60s
to lower 70s east. Winds should start to pick up across the high
terrain by late aftn, but will should stay below wind advisory
criteria thru the daylight hours.

Short term Saturday night through Monday
As of 245 pm edt Friday: the forecast is still on track to bring the
coldest air of the season into the western carolinas and northeast
georgia on Saturday night in the wake of a cold front short wave
passage. This will be an advective freeze as the wind will come
around to NW and should be howling at times across the ridgetops
and higher elevations, not quite high enough to suggest a wind
advisory at this time, but the guidance has 850 mb winds on the
order of 40 kt or so. The trend in the guidance remains slightly
colder with each run, so confidence is high enough now to issue a
freeze watch for all the nc mountains and the higher elevations of
the NRN foothills of nc. In that area, only the little tn river and
french broad river valleys look like they will stay in the mid-30s,
but with the trend, they could easily also get below 32f. Frost
would be prevented by the steady NW wind across the mtns, and
elsewhere. Residual low level moisture will be forced upslope
by the strong NW flow, but moisture looks to be shallow, so the
chances of meaningful precip look low. All the same, a few places
near the tn border will probably have their first snowflakes of
the season. The moisture pulls out by daybreak on Sunday, which
incidentally looks like a crisp and cool autumn day with bright
sun and temps ten degrees below normal. We are set to do the
frost freeze thing all over again Sunday night as the models show
the center of the sfc high moving over WRN nc at daybreak Monday
with what should be ideal radiational cooling conditions. Do not
be surprised if our forecast is 3-5 degrees too warm for early
Monday morning. Have a feeling that a good bit of the nc foothills
and WRN piedmont will also flirt with 32f around daybreak Monday,
with lots of frost east of the mountains. Monday will be another
beautiful autumn day with Sun and cool temps.

Long term Monday night through Friday
As of 215 pm edt Friday: the weather for better part of the week
still looks relatively tranquil with high pressure dominant. A short
wave should bring a dry cold front across the region on Tuesday
to reinforce the high and knock temps back down below normal. The
relatively flat upper flow may become briefly more NW during the
middle part of the week as a ridge moves eastward across the plains
and midwest. From Thursday onward, significant model differences
raise uncertainty. The GFS would move a weak upper system across
the area and keep precip suppressed to the south thru the end of
the period. The ECMWF would still allow for a stronger short wave
to move across the SRN tier, and altho the timing has slipped,
still brings precip back in thurs nite as a sfc wave moves eastward
across the deep south. The fcst generally follows along with the
spirit of the ECMWF as it has better continuity at this point.

Aviation 19z Friday through Wednesday
At kclt and elsewhere: the 18z tafs start out fair with just a few
cirrus and light S to SW winds. Then as a cold front approaches fm
the nw, swly flow will bring low-level moisture and potential MVFR
or lower CIGS across the upstate and possibly kclt tonight. Some of
the guidance keeps CIGS mainly 3500 ft or higher, but based on
current cloud deck across central ga, I think there will be some
MVFR CIGS this evening. From there, the main impact with the fropa
will be a broken line of showers pushing across the nc mountains.

Only a few will survive east of the mountains, so going with prob30
for non-mountain tafs. Kand sees the lowest chance for shra, so no
mention at this time. Winds will shift out of the NW a bit ahead of
the front at kavl during the pre-dawn hours, then become gusty
behind the front by 16z. The front will just be about to push thru
the piedmont sites toward end of 18z TAF period, passing thru kclt
between 21z-00z.

Outlook: gusty NW winds expected Saturday night behind a strong cold
front. High pressure quickly builds in Sunday, allowing winds to
subside and bringing clear conditions.

Confidence table...

18-24z 00-06z 06-12z 12-18z
kclt high 100% high 100% high 95% high 92%
kgsp high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kavl high 100% high 100% high 94% med 63%
khky high 100% high 100% high 97% high 88%
kgmu high 100% high 100% high 92% high 100%
kand high 100% high 93% high 83% high 92%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Morganton-Lenoir Airport, NC6 mi54 minN 010.00 miFair60°F52°F75%1022.3 hPa
Hickory, Hickory Regional Airport, NC9 mi41 minSSW 410.00 miFair59°F48°F67%1019.9 hPa

Wind History from MRN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmSE3SW5SW5S5S3Calm
1 day agoW5W3W6CalmCalmNW7NW12
G16
N6N3CalmCalmCalmE3CalmNE3SE3E3NE4CalmSE4E3CalmCalmE3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmSW5CalmCalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmW4W4SW4W3W6W4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.