Sunday, June24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Jamesville, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 8:30PM Sunday June 24, 2018 12:38 PM EDT (16:38 UTC) Moonrise 4:20PMMoonset 2:32AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 1134 Am Edt Sun Jun 24 2018
Rest of today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the morning.
Mon night..NE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue night..SE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jamesville, NC
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location: 35.76, -76.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 241556
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1156 am edt Sun jun 24 2018

Synopsis
An inland trough offshore high pattern will prevail over the
area today. A cold front will approach from the northwest
tonight and move through the area Monday into Monday night.

High pressure will build into the area Tuesday and gradually
move offshore Wednesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 1130 am Sunday... Main change with update was to increase
pops to 30% over all but coastal secions with wording of
scattered tstms for 2-8 pm period. Latest NAM and hrrr support
scattered activity moving into area from w-sw late afternoon
into early evening. With capes near 3500 and 20-30 kt of shear,
isolated wet microbursts will be possible again per SPC day 1
outlook upgrade to marginal severe risk for area. Temps on track
and no change to heat advisory.

Previous discussion
as of 615 am Sunday... Outside of the canadian model, there is a
strong consensus in the other operational and high resolution
models that there will be a minimum in diurnal convection today
through 5 or 6 pm so will continue with isolated to low end
scattered coverage low chance to slight chance afternoon pops.

The most impactful weather will be the combination of heat and
humidity which will produce dangerous heat index values at or
above 105 degrees this afternoon. The coastal plain counties
tend to have deeper mixing and thus lower dewpoints, so heat
index values there will be in the 100-104 degree range and will
leave them out of the heat advisory which is in effect today for
the counties mainly east of highway 70. Highs will be in the
mid 90s inland and around 90 beaches.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Monday
As of 310 am Sunday... The cold front will push into the area
tonight and combined with low amplitude shortwave energy, will
lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Will keep pops in
the 40-50% range in line with met mav mos. Main threat will be
locally heavy downpours. Lows will generally be in the mid to
upper 70s but rain cooled air could briefly produce a few
readings in the low 70s.

Long term Monday through Saturday
As of 345 am Sunday... A cold front will push through the area
Monday bringing showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will
build into the region from the north Tuesday, then the center of
the high off the mid-atlantic coast Wednesday and extend over
the region through next weekend.

Monday... A broad trough will persist over the area, while a
cold front pushes south and stall along the southern counties of
the forecast area. Ahead of the frontal boundary, CAPE values
are expected to reach AOA 3000-4000 j kg and 0-6 kt to 20-25 kt
by Monday afternoon. This will result to scattered showers and
thunderstorms across eastern nc, especially around the counties
bordering onslow county where SPC day 2 outlook has a marginal
risk for severe weather. Possible threats are locally strong
damaging winds and hail.

Tuesday-Wednesday... The cold front is forecasted to be to the
south of the area as high pressure builds in from the north
Tuesday and off the mid-atlantic coast Wednesday. Expect a
typical summer pattern, where enough residual moisture and
instability behind the front to warrant low chance pops each day
for a few mainly diurnally driven showers or storms. Temps will
be closer to normal values in the low to mid 80s.

Thursday-Sunday... The high pressure will extend over the area
from the western atlantic while a piedmont trough develops
inland. A southernly flow returns bringing warm humid airmass
across the area. This will allow for diurnally driven scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the area for each day. Expect
highs in back into the 90s inland and mid upper 80s along the
obx.

Aviation 16z Sunday through Thursday
Short term through 12z Monday ...

as of 615 am Sunday... Consensus of the models is for only
widely scattered convection before 6 pm today thus will forecast
prevailingVFR conditions through 22z and vcts thereafter.

After 00z forcing associated with an approaching cold front is
expected to trigger more numerous shower and thunderstorm
activity.

Long term Monday through Thursday ...

as of 345 am Sunday... VFR conditions will persist through the
period, except for Monday as the cold front pushes through the
area; bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms resulting to
occasional sub-vfr conditions. Additional showers and
thunderstorms are expected each day as high pressure builds in
from the north.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 1130 am Sunday... No changes with update. Winds have
diminished to 15-20 kt as expected this morning but latest
guidance supports increasing winds again this afternoon into
tonight.

Previous discussion
as of 615 am Sunday... Small craft advisory conditions will
continue across the waters through tonight in prefrontal sw
flow. SW winds currently diminished 10 to 15 kt with a few gusts
around 20 kt. Winds are forecast to increase to 20-25 kt late
this afternoon into tonight ahead of the approaching cold front.

Winds will then diminish back to 15 kt around dawn Monday. Seas
will be 3 to 5 ft for most of today, building to 4 to 6 ft late
today and tonight.

Long term Monday through Thursday ...

as of 345 am Sunday... A cold front will push through the coastal
waters Monday. Winds will shift from the wsw W 10-20 knots to
ne and diminish to 5 to 15 kt behind the front. NE 10-15 kt
will continue Tue as high pressure builds in from the north,
then veering SE Wed and becoming S 5-15 kt Thursday. Seas
subside 3-4 ft by Monday afternoon, then 2 to 4 ft through the
rest of the period.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz045>047-080-
081-092>095-098-103-104.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Monday for amz135.

Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Monday for amz152-154-156-
158.

Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for amz150.

Synopsis... Jme
near term... Jme jbm
short term... Jme
long term... Bm
aviation... Jme bm
marine... Jme jbm bm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 68 mi57 min SW 9.9 G 14 83°F 71°F1012.7 hPa
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 70 mi39 min 74°F2 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 72 mi63 min SSW 15 G 16 84°F 84°F1013.4 hPa

Wind History for Duck, NC
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SE14
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S24
G31
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N9
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W14
G19
N7
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Washington, Warren Field Airport, NC15 mi64 minSW 810.00 miFair89°F70°F55%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from OCW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW10SW10W14
G23
CalmS8
G15
S10S13
G19
S9
G16
NW3S5S5S4S3CalmCalmS5CalmS3S4SW9SW9W9W5W8
1 day agoSW10
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S6SE7S6S7S6S8S8S6CalmCalmS3S4S3S6SW7SW8SW6S7SW9
G16
2 days agoSW4W6CalmCalmSW6SW5SW9E3E8S4SE4NE5SE6E8SE5SE4S3CalmS4S3SW3S3S7S8

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:13 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:53 AM EDT     1.85 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:07 PM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:21 PM EDT     2.31 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.10.20.511.41.71.81.71.410.50.20.10.20.51.11.62.12.32.321.61

Tide / Current Tables for Ocracoke, Ocracoke Island, North Carolina
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Ocracoke
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:29 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:37 AM EDT     0.83 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:22 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:18 PM EDT     1.10 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.10.30.50.70.80.80.70.60.40.20.10.10.10.30.50.811.11.10.90.70.50.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.