Saturday, June24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Raleigh, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 8:36PM Saturday June 24, 2017 1:30 AM EDT (05:30 UTC) Moonrise 5:39AMMoonset 8:10PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Raleigh, NC
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location: 35.79, -78.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 240429 rra
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
1229 am edt Sat jun 24 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure will pass to our northwest, crossing the central
appalachians later tonight into Saturday morning, before moving off
the mid atlantic coast. This will drag a trailing cold front through
central nc late Saturday through Saturday night. High pressure will
follow, bringing cooler and drier air into our region for next week.

Near term through tonight
As of 1225 am Saturday...

there would appear to be a risk of strong to severe storms during
the next several hours over the piedmont, as the current band of
fast-moving, but generally weak convection crossing the foothills
encounters an instability axis of 1000-1500 j kg MLCAPE centered
over central nc. While the consensus of nwp guidance suggests this
activity will further weaken with time and ewd extent, observational
and objective analysis data would indicate otherwise.

The height gradient and associated deep layer wind fields on the
sern periphery of cindy will remain strong for several more hours,
before weakening by around 09z, as the remnant cindy circulation
moves to the mid-atlantic coast. Resultant effective bulk shear and
srh values of 35-40 kts and 200-300 m2 s2, respectively, would
support organized storm modes, including supercells bows, with right-
moving supercells favored owing to strongly-cyclonically-curved
hodographs during the next several hours, before the height wind
field weakens. Damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado or two
may result, mainly west of u.S. Hwy 1. Radar trends indeed support
an uptick in convective intensity and organization from statesville
to gastonia, nc.

As of 950 pm edt Friday...

nothing on radar this evening except for a few sprinkles which is a
nice change from previous days. This is not the case to our west
however as the remnants of cindy have combined with a frontal system
that runs along much of the expanse of the appalachians with the
heaviest rainfall across the ohio valley. A relative minimum in the
rainfall over eastern tennessee will make its way eastward overnight
but continuing to die out as it does so. It is possible to have some
showers into the triad between 6-9z but should die out by 12z.

As far as stratus is concerned, some MVFR ceilings are possible in
the triad but further east conditions should remainVFR. Part of the
reason for this is that forecast soundings show good mixing down to
the surface overnight and we have already seen some gusts to 15 kts
start to make their way into the observations. This is expected to
continue overnight and will likely increase in frequency and
coverage.

Temperatures across the area remain the the upper 70s to lower 80s
with dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Lows will only reach the
mid 70s.

Short term Saturday through Sunday
As of 135 pm edt Friday...

a cold front will approach the central appalachians from the NW late
tonight. With the remnants of tropical cyclone cindy progged to
track a bit further N NW of central nc than previously anticipated,
the cold front is not expected to progress into central nc until sat
evening night. With central nc on the eastern periphery of the pre-
frontal trough, rich low-level moisture is likely to persist through
the afternoon. Strong insolation and rich low-level moisture are
expected to yield moderate instability by mid late afternoon,
ranging from ~1000 j kg in the NW piedmont to ~2000 j kg in the se
coastal plain, in the presence of 30-40 knots of deep-layer shear.

Convection allowing models suggest scattered convection will develop
within the pre-frontal trough in vicinity of the i-77 corridor by
mid late afternoon (19-20z), then quickly grow upscale into a sw-ne
oriented line that progresses E SE through central nc between 21-00z
(roughly). Though diurnal timing will be optimal, rich boundary
layer moisture relatively low t TD spreads will yield marginal
dcape (500-750 j kg) and line-parallel (southwesterly) deep-layer
shear will not favor new updraft development at the leading edge of
the consolidated cold pool. As a result, the potential for damaging
winds appears relatively marginal isolated . Expect highs ranging
from the mid upper 80s (nw) to lower 90s (se). -vincent
Saturday night and Sunday, a sfc boundary trailing behind a low
pressure system crossing the northern mid-atlantic, will cross
central nc Saturday night and Sunday. This front interacting with a
moisture rich air mass will support the development of scattered-
numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening. Bulk of
convective will dissipate overnight Saturday night though isolated-
scattered showers still probable due to the presence of the front
and available moisture. By Sunday, the main focus for convective
development should be primarily east and south of raleigh as the
front should lie in this vicinity. Nwly flow behind the front will
advect a drier more stable air mass into the piedmont Sunday,
leading to drier conditions. -wss

Long term Sunday night through Friday
As of 305 pm edt Friday...

the drier air mass will overspread the remainder of central nc late
Sunday and Sunday night. Monday shaping up to be warm and dry with
wly flow aloft and a sfc high positioned over the tn valley. A S w
in the northern stream projected to drop sewd across the lower oh
valley Monday night, and cross central nc Tuesday. 12z ECMWF more
adamant about the potential for lift and isolated scattered showers
compared to the drier gfs. Based on the favorable timing, potential
will exists for isolated-scattered showers, primarily late morning
through the afternoon.

A modifying canadian high pressure system will initiate a stretch of
dry and relatively pleasant conditions (ie. Less humid) across
central nc Wednesday into Thursday. By Friday, return flow on the
back side of the retreating high will signal a return to warm and
humid conditions by the end of the week.

No signals noted for extreme heat across our part of the country
through the next 5-7 days. In fact, high temperatures Tuesday and
Wednesday will likely average 3 to 8 degrees below normal. The
modifying air mass Thursday and Friday will permit temperatures to
return to seasonal norms.

Aviation 00z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 810 pm Friday...

the most significant aviation hazard over the next 24 hours will be
gusty winds from the sw, occurring over the next 12-15 hours,
including a strong crosswind at int.

Vfr conditions are expected to dominate central nc terminals through
00z sun. Low pressure, the remnants of what was once tropical storm
cindy, will pass by to our NW and N tonight through Sat morning.

While int gso will likely see a period of MVFR CIGS vsbys in showers
(with a lesser risk of thunder) between 04z and 09z tonight, this
precipitation is expected to dissipate as it approaches rdu, leading
to a much lower chance of MVFR conditions there, and the chance for
sub-vfr conditions at rwi fay is even lower. Surface winds will
increase from the SW through the evening, with sustained speeds
reaching 15-22 kts and gusts as high as 25-35 kts, especially after
midnight, lasting until just before or around daybreak sat. Aviation
interests should use extreme caution at int, as this will present a
significant crosswind at that site, and these winds may induce some
low level turbulence at other locations. As the low shifts off the
mid atlantic coast early sat, it will drag a cold front slowly into
the area, causing a shift of winds to be from the W or wsw with time
sat, but with lower sustained speeds and only sporadic gusts at
most.VFR conditions will dominate sat, although scattered
thunderstorms producing brief sub-vfr conditions and enhanced gusts
are expected near fay Sat afternoon, with a lesser chance of storms
near rdu rwi. Int gso will remain dry.

Looking beyond 00z Sun (sat evening), mid and high clouds will
continue to streak across the area, especially southern and eastern
nc, through sun. Confidence is high thatVFR conditions will hold
through at least wed, with high pressure in control both at the
surface and aloft. -gih

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Mlm gih
near term... Mws ellis
short term... Vincent wss
long term... Wss
aviation... Hartfield


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC10 mi40 minSSW 15 G 2810.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F75°F82%1010.4 hPa
Smithfield, Johnston County Airport, NC22 mi36 minSSW 10 G 1610.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F75°F84%1011.8 hPa
Franklin County Airport, NC23 mi46 minS 10 G 167.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F75°F89%1011.8 hPa

Wind History from RDU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3S5SW4SW9SW6SW9SW9SW8SW12SW14SW15
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1 day agoSW5SW7SW6SW4SW7SW8SW6SW8SW8SW8SW9W8W6W7W10W4SW7SW7SW8SW11SW6SW6SW6SW4
2 days agoSW3SW5CalmW3S4SW4SW8SW5W5SW9SW11W6W8SW6SW7W8W5W5W4SW9SW7SW7W4W4

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Sat -- 04:01 AM EDT     1.69 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:28 AM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:32 PM EDT     1.38 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:04 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:28 PM EDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.81.31.61.71.61.41.10.80.60.2-0.1-0.10.30.81.21.41.41.20.90.60.40.1-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.