Sunday, September24, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Raleigh, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 7:08PM Sunday September 24, 2017 10:41 PM EDT (02:41 UTC) Moonrise 10:11AMMoonset 9:05PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Raleigh, NC
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location: 35.79, -78.64     debug

Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 250118
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
915 pm edt Sun sep 24 2017

High pressure centered over the great lakes and northern mid
atlantic states will extend south into our region through Monday.

Hurricane maria is forecast to move north through the western
atlantic, paralleling the SE coast through midweek.

Near term through tonight
As of 915 pm Sunday...

forecast is in good shape. Exhaust cirrus emanating from hurricane
maria continues to spread northwestward into nc, propelled by a 40-
50 kt upper jetlet. Otherwise, the column remains very dry and
stable, bringing dry weather. Isolated lower clouds are possible
late tonight over the SE sections where a little low level atlantic
source moisture may work in, but any such clouds are unlikely to
become broken. Latest high res guidance continues to suggest lows
from 60 to 66. -gih

Short term Monday and Monday night
As of 259 pm Sunday...

deep layer ridging centered over ny will prevail across the region
on Monday, before weakening breaking-down Monday evening night as
maria continues to move north-northwest, paralleling the carolina
coast. Expect a gradual increase of high level cloudiness throughout
the day as the outer outflow cirrus bands push west into the area,
which should be sufficiently opaque along and east of i-95 to temper
afternoon heating. Highs ranging from lower 80s in the east to
mid upper 80s sw. The pressure gradient between the high to our
north and maria will also begin to tighten, producing wind gusts in
the mid to upper teens.

Strengthening nely low-level flow will advect some atlantic maritime
moisture in the form of low clouds stratus into the eastern half of
the forecast area Monday night. Owing to the increase in
clouds moisture, low temps Monday night will be a few degrees warmer
than past recent nights. Lows in the mid to upper 60s.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
As of 345 pm Sunday...

tue through Thu night: hurricane maria is expected to drift slowly
northward off the nc coast tue-wed, before getting caught up in the
westerlies and taking a turn NE and out to sea thu. The official
forecast track follows the op GFS more closely than the ecmwf, which
tracks maria's center a bit closer to the nc and about 18 hrs slower
than the GFS by thu. Will hew more closely to the op GFS for
sensible weather. Based on the latest NHC wind radii forecasts, we
are very unlikely to see tropical storm force winds into our
forecast area. However, momentum transfer noted on forecast
soundings suggests that frequent gusts to 20-25 kts are likely in
our eastern third, especially when maria's center makes its closest
approach wed. Skies Tue should trend to fair west, with streaks of
thin high clouds streaming off the top of maria northwestward over
nc, with partly to mostly cloudy skies east where greater low level
influx of atlantic moisture should result in scattered to broken
stratocu. As maria tracks up to and north of the latitude through
central nc, the backing of low level winds to be from a more
northerly or northwesterly direction should help draw drier air back
in, such that clouds should thin out wed, and likely be primarily
partly cloudy through thu. Shower chances appear to be small, with
models generally confining small chances of measurable precip to the
east. Will continue with isolated shower pops Tue through early thu,
as far outer bands may work into the coastal plain at any time.

Highs 80-86 Tue and 81-89 wed, with narrow ridging aloft NW and then
w of maria and thicknesses 10-15 and 15-20 m above normal
respectively. By Thu thu night, broad mid level troughing over much
of noam (all but the far S and w) begins to dig over the upper
midwest, pushing a moisture-starved cold front to the se, over the
nc mountains and through the state late Thu through Thu night.

Expect highs of 83-90 Thu with thicknesses likely to be nearly 20 m
above normal. Lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s Tue night and wed
night, slipping to the low-mid 60s post-front Thu night.

Fri through sun: the digging mid level trough shifts eastward over
the weekend, while cool high pressure drifting from the upper
midwest across the great lakes to the northeast ridges down through
nc. The GFS develops a baroclinic zone near the SE coast, along
which low pressure tracks. While this is far from certain to occur,
given some disagreement in the models, will still leave in a low
chance of showers over the se, mainly late Sat through Sat night,
still below climatology. Otherwise, expect fair to mostly sunny
skies. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s fri, then in the 70s
sat sun, making for a pleasant fall weekend. -gih
.Aviation 00z Monday through Friday
as of 740 pm Sunday...

vfr conditions are expected through the TAF period but a minor
exception could be some MVFR fog at krwi overnight. Winds are
expected to remain a few knots overnight which would mitigate the
fog threat but if they were to go calm, then fog would be more
likely at krwi only. Otherwise expect some lower MVFR clouds to
begin creeping into the east Monday afternoon with some wind gusts
of 15-20 kts otherwise no significant weather is expected.

Long term: the closer approach of hurricane maria to the coast will
bring chances for some shower activity as well as some lower
ceilings to the eastern portions of the forecast area Monday night
through Thursday.

Rah watches warnings advisories

Synopsis... Cbl
near term... Hartfield
short term... Cbl
long term... Hartfield
aviation... Ellis

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC10 mi50 minENE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F61°F71%1016.4 hPa
Smithfield, Johnston County Airport, NC22 mi56 minN 010.00 miFair68°F68°F100%1015.9 hPa
Franklin County Airport, NC23 mi61 minN 010.00 miFair64°F60°F88%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from RDU (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmNE3NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3N4NE6NE8NE9NE9NE9NE11NE10NE6E7NE5E3NE4E5
1 day agoCalmNE3CalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N4NE5NE7E9N12
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4N4NE6NE4NE734NE5NE4NE3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Sun -- 01:34 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:52 AM EDT     1.43 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:46 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:25 PM EDT     1.49 feet High Tide
Sun -- 10:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.