Sunrise 6:22 AM   Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 12:04 AM   Moonset 9:25 AM

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FXUS62 KRAH 291025 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 625 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

SYNOPSIS
Surface high pressure will remain centered just off the south Atlantic Coast through mid week and then shift further east. A weakening cold front will approach the area on Tuesday and move across the region on Wednesday. Another cold front is expected to approach the area toward the weekend.

NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
As of 245 AM Monday...

The upper level ridge will slowly progress eastward through the area today and off/along the East Coast tonight as a s/w moves eastward through the lower/mid MS Valley and into the TN Valley. At the surface, high pressure off the Southeast US coast will drift ever so slowly eastward, but continue to ridge wnwwd into the Carolinas through tonight. There is still a chance, albeit with low confidence, that some early morning fog/low stratus could develop over portions of central NC. If it does, it should dissipate after sunrise, with sunny to mostly sunny skies the rest of the day. There may be some additional fog/low stratus again late tonight. Otherwise it should be another dry, warm day across central NC. Temperatures should be well above normal with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the mid/upper 50s to around 60 degrees.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 320 AM Monday...

The s/w aloft will continue to progress eastward from the TN Valley, through the Appalachians and over the Carolinas Tue/Tue night. At the surface, the high will continue to drift very slowly eastward away from the Southeast US Coast, with southerly return flow off the Atlantic acting in confluence with southwesterly flow off the Gulf to increase advection of warm, moist air into the Carolinas Tue/Tue night. A trough will amplify southward into the area from a low tracking along a stalled surface boundary over the Northeast Tue eve/night. Meanwhile, another, weaker surface low may develop over the Southeast below the s/w aloft Tue aft/eve, possibly getting picked up by the surface trough as it progresses eastward Tue night.
A weak front within the trough may slide into the area late Tue night, but it is unclear how far east it will progress before daybreak Wed. While a shower or storm cannot be ruled out during the day, coverage appears minimal at this time. The low-level moisture and forcing aloft are better Tue eve/night, but with the loss of heating chances may be limited overnight. Best chances for a shower or storm appear to be across the southern Piedmont and Sandhills, where some model guidance shows lingering 500-1000 J/Kg SBCAPE. Will keep the chance for showers/storms in the forecast for now. Cloud cover is expected to increase from the west through the day as the s/w approaches, with overcast skies everywhere by Tue eve. Forecast soundings from the medium-range models also suggest possible fog/low stratus developing after sunset late Tue eve. Highs for now should range from low 80s NW to mid 80s east, while lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s are expected Tue night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 255 AM Monday...

* Above average temperatures expected through the long term.
* Generally dry period with a limited chance of mainly light precip amounts Wednesday with a little better chance this weekend.

The upper level pattern at the start of the long term period will feature an energetic short wave trough moving east across the eastern Carolinas and VA on Wednesday morning. Mid and upper level ridging returns to the Deep South on Wednesday night and builds across the Carolinas on Thursday. The ridge axis folds east on Friday and then shifts offshore on Saturday. The mid and upper flow becomes increasingly southwesterly late Saturday into Sunday as troughing moves into the Great Lakes and the subtropical jet becomes enhanced across Mexico and the northern Gulf Coast.

On Wednesday morning, a weakening cold front will be pushing east across the Carolinas and VA before moving off the coast on Wednesday night. While the exact timing is a little tricky, guidance suggest the upper trough axis and cold front will be shifting into eastern NC by the afternoon. This means the best forcing for ascent will likely by moving across central NC during the diurnally unfavorable overnight and morning hours, likely reducing convective coverage and the threat of strong storms in our area. Will still need to monitor the timing. Otherwise, expect Wednesday to start out with a good deal of clouds and a limited threat of showers with the greatest cloud cover, best chance of showers and a risk of thunderstorms across the east. Highs should range in the lower to mid 80s which is about 5 to 10 degrees above average. The front and upper trough will shift east and any threat of rain should end by the evening in the east and the late afternoon in the west. Skies will clear a bit on Wednesday night with lows mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Thursday should feature mainly clear skies with just a little fair weather afternoon cumulus clouds. Even with a light northeast flow, above average temperatures are expected with highs in the lower and mid 80s. Lows again will range mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Expect a bit more high cloudiness on Friday as the ridge axis shifts south and east. Highs may nudge upward a degree or two and it may feel just a touch muggy with highs generally in the lower to mid 80s with overnight lows in the lower 60s.

The upper air pattern becomes more invigorated late Friday into Saturday as a weakening cold front advances east toward the southern Appalachians early Saturday. The front largely dissipates on Saturday into Sunday. However as one upper level disturbance moves across the region on Saturday and another threatens Sunday, a chance of mainly afternoon or evening showers or storms develops. Right now the best chance of rain appears to be on Saturday, especially across the west. Temperatures are expected to range above average with highs in the lower to mid 80s although a few upper 70s are possible near the VA border or parts of the Triad. Lows will generally range in the upper 50s to lower 60s. -Blaes

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 625 AM Monday...

24 hour TAF period: High confidence VFR conditions will prevail through at least 06Z. Some model guidance indicates more fog/low stratus is possible late tonight, mainly at KFAY and KRWI during the 08Z to 12Z time period. Winds should be mainly swly/sly, increasing to 8-12 kts with gusts of 15-20 kts during today, then decreasing once again after sunset.

Outlook: Some medium-range guidance is still hinting at moisture in the low levels again Wed morning, with higher confidence in occurrence than Tue morn. Otherwise, mainly overcast high clouds Tue/Tue night, with restrictions possible where convection occurs Tue/Wed aft/eve. Aside from the concerns listed above, VFR conditions should prevail through Thu. There may be some additional low stratus Fri morning, but confidence is low at this time.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Bannermans Branch
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Mon -- 12:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:15 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:25 AM EDT     1.51 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:23 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:59 PM EDT     1.21 feet High Tide
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Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina, Tide feet

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