Monday, May20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Raleigh, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 8:17PM Monday May 20, 2019 4:35 PM EDT (20:35 UTC) Moonrise 9:15PMMoonset 6:33AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Raleigh, NC
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location: 35.79, -78.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 201858
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
257 pm edt Mon may 20 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will cross central nc tonight. High pressure will build
into the region from the north Tuesday and Wednesday, providing a
temporary break from the heat. Hot temperatures will return for the
later half of the work week as high pressure aloft builds over the
se u.S.

Near term through tonight
As of 257 pm Monday... A mostly dry cold front moving into western
tn will cross the area late this evening and through the overnight
hours. Regional mosaic radars showers a pre-frontal band of
convection forming along a pre-frontal sfc trough and vorticity
shear axis extending across the western carolinas. This band is
forecast to fill in as it advances east into the nc piedmont this
afternoon and early evening, followed by gradual weakening as the
convection advances into the sandhills and coastal plain during the
late evening early overnight.

Greatly limited by marginal shear parameters of only 15 to 20 kts,
severe threat will be quite low this afternoon early evening with
the best chance of an isolated strong storm or two occurring across
the nc piedmont counties, prior to 00z before nocturnal
stabilization begins.

The cold front will cross the triad region around midnight and will
exit our far southeastern counties around daybreak. Nly winds behind
the front will advect a "cooler" though notably less humid air mass
into the area. Overnight temperatures will vary from the near-lower
60s across the NW to the upper 60s se.

Short term Tuesday and Tuesday night
As of 257 pm Monday...

downstream of the mature upper low lifting north through the central
plains, the sub-tropical ridge quickly re-establishes itself across
our region by Tuesday night. This gives concern that the cold front
may not clear the far southern zones entirely on Tuesday. If that
does indeed occur, future forecast updates may have to include some
small pops across the far SE zones. Otherwise, expect dry conditions
to prevail on Tuesday with noticeably less humid conditions.

Temperatures will feature a fairly sharp north-south gradient
ranging from upper 70s near 80 NE to near 90s south.

The arrival of more prominent surface pressure rises from the north
Tuesday evening night will prove the needed force to push the front
into sc overnight. Nely low-level maritime flow Tuesday could advect
an area of sub-vfr ceilings across much of the area. Min
temperatures ranging from lower mid 50s NE to lower mid 60s sw.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
As of 230 pm Monday...

still hot and dry for much of the long term forecast but a few
shortwaves to look at with respect to possible precipitation this
week. The first will be on Thursday as a low pressure system moves
across southern ontario and northern new york. Models are in fairly
good agreement with regards to the location and strength of this
features, but not with respect to moisture. The strength of the
upper ridge comes into play and the ECMWF solution is still in favor
of what is probably the more likely solution in that the ridge
remains strong and any adverse weather has trouble penetrating
southward into the cwa. Will carry slight chance pops across the
north with scattered thunderstorms possible Thursday afternoon and
evening.

The same can be said for a second low pressure system on a similar
track to the first that lays a frontal zone down from east to west
across the mid-atlantic states. Again, the GFS is in favor of a more
southward solution, one that is perhaps ignorant of the strength of
the upper ridge. If the front does make way southward, there could
be another slight chance for showers Sunday night into Monday, and
again Monday afternoon if leftover boundaries remain over the area.

Not a washout by any means and certainly looking like mostly dry
weather for the memorial day weekend but warmer than we are used to
this time of year.

Temperatures will start out cooler on Wednesday in the low to mid 80s
from NE to SW but as the ridge begins to strengthen, thickness
values increase allowing for low 90s across the area on Thursday
afternoon. Temperatures will continue to rise into the mid 90s for
the rest of the period. With dewpoints in the mid 60s, heat indices,
while uncomfortable should stay below advisory criteria with 95-100
degrees expected from Friday through Monday. We do recommend taking
precautions if outside for long periods of time this weekend,
especially for those particularly susceptible to the heat.

Aviation 18z Monday through Saturday
As of 154 pm Monday...

regional mosaic radars showers a pre-frontal band of convection
forming along a pre-frontal sfc trough and shortwave impulse across
western nc. This band is forecast to fill in as it advances east
into the nc piedmont this afternoon and early evening, followed by
gradual weakening as the convection advances into the sandhills and
coastal plain by the late evening early overnight. In proximity of
the stronger storms anticipate MVFR conditions and wind gusts 30-
40kts. Outside of convection, expectVFR conditions through the
period with winds shifting to nwly behind a mostly dry cold frontal
passage passage this evening and overnight.

Nely low-level maritime flow Tuesday night Wednesday morning could
support an area of sub-vfr ceilings across much of the area. There
is also a slim chance for pockets of fog and associated MVFR
parameters early Thursday morning and again early Friday morning.

Otherwise, strong upper level ridging will result in predominately
vfr parameters through the weekend.

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Wss
near term... Cbl
short term... Cbl
long term... Ellis
aviation... Cbl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC10 mi45 minSW 1310.00 miPartly Cloudy87°F64°F48%1012.4 hPa
Smithfield, Johnston County Airport, NC22 mi46 minSSW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy88°F68°F52%1013.2 hPa
Franklin County Airport, NC23 mi56 minSSW 9 G 1710.00 miPartly Cloudy86°F62°F46%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from RDU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW16SW14
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1 day agoNW4W4W6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5S5S5SW4SW5SW5SW7SW10SW10SW13SW10SW12
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2 days agoW8W9W6SW4SW5W3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3335CalmNW5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Mon -- 05:16 AM EDT     1.61 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:23 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:31 PM EDT     1.29 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:07 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-00.20.71.21.51.61.61.41.10.80.50.2-000.40.81.11.31.31.10.90.60.40.2

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.