Monday, October22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Raleigh, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 6:30PM Monday October 22, 2018 3:30 AM EDT (07:30 UTC) Moonrise 4:49PMMoonset 4:12AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Raleigh, NC
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location: 35.79, -78.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 220720
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
320 am edt Mon oct 22 2018

Synopsis
Chilly high pressure will extend across the region this morning then
drift offshore this afternoon. A dry cold front will cross the area
Tuesday night followed by another high pressure system which will
build into the region on Wednesday.

Near term through tonight
As of 320 am Monday...

tranquil weather pattern to start the work week with an area of high
pressure at the surface extending across the region early this
morning. Early morning temperatures will be close to freezing across
parts of the piedmont with the normally colder locations likely
around 30 degrees. Abundant sunshine and a dry air mass will warm
temperatures quickly through the 40s and 50 this morning, with mid
afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 60s likely. There is the
potential for a few patches of cirrus this afternoon but should be
thin enough to permit strong insolation.

Tonight, the sfc high will reside offshore, resulting in a return
sly flow over the region. The atmosphere will remain quite dry, so
expect mainly patchy cirrus overhead. The exception will be the far
southeast counties where decent onshore flow around the high into
south carolina will permit the formation of a stratocu layer which
may spread into our far SE late tonight early Tuesday morning. It
will be milder tonight with overnight temperatures mainly in the 40-
45 degree range.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
As of 320 am Monday...

Tuesday, a S W exiting the great lakes and crossing southern new
england will drive a sfc cold front toward central nc. This boundary
will glide sewd across our region Tuesday night. The atmosphere
ahead of the front will be stable and relatively dry. Thus, not
expecting much with the front aside from a few patches of cirrus and
may be a thin layer of stratocu across our SE counties. The warm sw
low level flow ahead of the front will aid to boost afternoon
temperatures back to near normal levels, varying from around 70-
lower 70s across the north, and solidly in the lower 70s across the
south.

Low level cold air advection commences behind the exiting sfc front
late Tuesday night and continues into Wednesday. Building sfc high
pressure will result in sunny skies. It will be notably cooler
Wednesday compared to Tuesday with afternoon temperatures averaging
6-7 degrees cooler. Highs Wednesday near 60 to the lower 60s north,
and mid-upper 60s south. And a brisk nly wind. Chilly Wednesday
night with lows ranging from the mid-upper 30s north to the lower
40s south.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
As of 215 pm Sunday...

through Thursday: cool, dry weather will continue through mid-week.

The surface high will continue to ridge westward into the carolinas.

An upper level shortwave trough is expected to pass over the region
on Tuesday Tuesday night, but the only impact expected is some
increased cloud coverage. The dry surface cold front will push
through as well, bringing a reinforcing shot of cold air into the
region Wednesday night Thursday. Temperatures will be near normal on
Tuesday, with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s and lows Tuesday night
in the low to mid 40s, but will depend on the progression of the
cold front into the NW portions of the area. (for reference, normal
highs are in the upper 60s to low 70s and normal lows are in the mid
to upper 40s). Temperatures will then decrease once again Wednesday
and Thursday in response to the canadian high ridging southward into
the region. Highs in the low to mid 60s Wednesday and mid to upper
50s on Thursday. Lows will generally hold steady in the mid 30s
north to low 40s south.

Thursday night through Saturday night: increasing likelihood of wet
and cool weather for this part of the forecast period. Forecast
confidence is still not very high. Generally, expect a shortwave
aloft to swing through the southeast us Thursday into Friday night
while a trailing wave low strengthens as it dives south through the
northern high plains and midwest, toward the gulf coast. The
deepening trough and closed low are expected to be to our west on
Saturday, while the axis of moisture precipitation is expected to
shift eastward over the atlantic. At the surface, the low over the
gulf (associated with the initial S W aloft) will strengthen as it
migrates eastward along the gulf coast then northeast along the se
us coast. Although the timing is off between the models, consensus
is that it will stay along or just off the mid-atlantic coast. The
surface high will continue ridging south-southwestward into nc, thus
strengthening the pressure gradient and amplifying winds over the
area. Temperatures will depend greatly on the placement of the low
and the cloud cover and precipitation, but generally expect below
normal temperatures to continue, cooler NW and warmer SE and slightly
moderating through the period.

Aviation 06z Monday through Friday
As of 140 am Monday...

there is a high confidence thatVFR parameters will occur across
central nc through Tuesday. A large area of high pressure will
extend across the region this morning , then drift offshore this
afternoon and tonight. The position of the sfc high offshore will
initiate a return sly flow over central nc later today, though wind
speeds will remain less than 10kts.

Sfc winds will increase slightly Tuesday ahead of a sfc cold front
that will cross central nc Tuesday night. Since the atmosphere will
remain quite dry, just patchy cirrus will occur with the frontal
passage. Another high pressure system will build into central nc
from the north on Wednesday in the wake of the cold front.

WhileVFR parameters will occur Tuesday night through Thursday, a
developing area of low pressure across the northern gulf will lift
northeast toward the SE u.S. Thursday night into Friday. This
weather system will bring an increased risk for rain, subVFR
ceilings, and breezy windy conditions to central nc Friday, and more
so Friday night into Saturday.

Rah watches warnings advisories
Freeze warning until 9 am edt Monday for ncz007-021>024-038>040-
073>076-083-084.

Frost advisory until 9 am edt Monday for ncz028>011-025>028-041>043-
077-085-086.

Synopsis... Wss
near term... Wss
short term... Wss
long term... Kcp
aviation... Wss


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC10 mi40 minNE 310.00 miFair36°F35°F97%1025.8 hPa
Smithfield, Johnston County Airport, NC22 mi51 minN 010.00 miFair36°F35°F100%1026.1 hPa
Franklin County Airport, NC23 mi51 minno data7.00 miFair34°F33°F100%1026.7 hPa

Wind History from RDU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9
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NW5NW6NW4N6NW9
G18
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W955CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3
1 day agoSW6S7SW6SW8SW7SW10SW8SW10W9W6SW8SW8W10W10SW9SW5SW4W5W5W5NW8
G18
W5W66
G16
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE4SW6S5W7SW5S7SW8CalmS3S3CalmS5SW4SW6SW4SW6

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Mon -- 02:30 AM EDT     1.45 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:14 AM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:48 PM EDT     1.44 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:38 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.31.41.41.310.70.40.200.10.50.91.21.41.41.31.10.80.50.30.10.10.3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.