Thursday, July19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Raleigh, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:11AMSunset 8:29PM Thursday July 19, 2018 1:53 AM EDT (05:53 UTC) Moonrise 12:23PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Raleigh, NC
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location: 35.79, -78.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 190123
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
922 pm edt Wed jul 18 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will build into our region from the north through
Thursday, then drift east and weaken on Friday.

Near term through tonight
As of 905 pm Wednesday...

surface high pressure continues to build into the area from the
north this evening, with the surface front that moved through the
area this morning now settling to the south and east of central nc.

This will allow for a dry night, with low temps generally falling
into the 60s areawide, with perhaps a few readings dropping to
around 60 degrees. Low temps will be the warmest across far southern
portions of the area, where we could see a period of low stratus
develop early Thursday morning, given the main low level frontal zone
still resides nearby across sc.

Short term Thursday through Thursday night
As of 220 pm Wednesday...

for Thursday, a quiet day is expected with no precipitation in the
forecast. In fact, much of the day should be mostly sunny. Winds
will obtain a more easterly component during the afternoon and
increasing clouds, especially in the western portion of the forecast
area are likely. Temperatures are expected to be much like today as
well with upper 80s to low 90s during the day and lows in the 65 to
70 degree range.

Long term Friday through Tuesday
As of 315 pm Wednesday...

the long term will be characterized by a rather active pattern
with precipitation in the forecast for almost the entire period
and temperatures near normal for this time of year. The latest
runs of the GEFS and geps continue to show below normal height
anomalies across the area this weekend and near normal heights
for the following work week.

On Friday an upper level shortwave embedded in the longwave
pattern will be diving southeast across the ohio valley.

Simultaneously a mid-level ridge will be amplifying over texas.

Friday evening a piece of energy will pull northeast out of the
gulf of mexico wrapping up with the upper level low over ohio.

The cmc, ecmwf, and GFS all show this in one form or another.

The general consensus is for surface cyclogenesis to occur near
the southeast north carolina coastline Friday evening. Models
are all trying to show higher QPF totals along the PVA maximum
with very little in the way of QPF in between the surface low
and upper level low. Looking at the rh fields this makes sense
given the dry air being wrapped into the upper level low. For
now have kept pops highest towards the coastline and across the
western zones with a bimodal QPF footprint.

During the day Saturday the stacked upper level low will become
detached from the main flow and drift southeast. Saturday night
into Sunday, global models are hinting at a wedge of pva
rotating around the upper level low and swinging through the
region. Pwats by this time will surge to around 1.9" (2"
according to the GFS and 1.8" according to the ecmwf).

Instability wise, mid-level lapse rates will be more than
sufficient given the proximity of the cold core low. Due to the
instability, moisture, and lift have raised pops Saturday
evening into Sunday.

Monday and Tuesday the upper level low that was over the ohio
valley will be squeezed southwest between and amplifying mid-
level ridge and a retrograding low moving in from the east. With
the forecast area sitting in between these two systems and
pwats remaining around 2.00" the chance of showers and
thunderstorms will continue. For now have kept the pops at
chance, but this will likely have to be raised if this trend
continues.

Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
As of 800 pm Wednesday...

there is a high probability ofVFR conditions through thu, under the
influence of dry high pressure that will continue to ridge swd into
nc, as it migrates from the great lakes to the middle atlantic and
northeast states. One exception will be a risk of fog and stratus
over far SRN and ERN nc, and more so over sc, late tonight-early thu
morning, in closer proximity to a frontal zone and more abundant low
level moisture.

Outlook: that same front will retreat nwd as a warm front into ern
and cntl nc late Fri through sat. The retreat of the front and
accompanying influx of richer low level moisture will increase the
probability of low stratus over SRN nc (including fay) early fri,
then area-wide Fri night-early sat. Mainly afternoon and early
nighttime showers and storms will also accompany the front during
that time, with that threat then expected to continue amidst a
moist, unstable, and perturbed pattern through early to mid next
week.

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Rah
near term... Bsd
short term... Ellis
long term... Haines
aviation... Mws


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC10 mi63 minE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F57°F54%1016.1 hPa
Franklin County Airport, NC23 mi59 minno data10.00 miFair64°F60°F88%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from RDU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N3NE5NE10NE9NE11NE10
G14
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E7NE65E7--NE8NE7NE7NE5NE4E7E7
1 day agoSW9SW7SW6SW7SW4SW6SW9SW8SW9SW12SW12
G15
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G20
W8W3W4W5S8SE9S6SE4Calm
2 days agoSW10SW10SW7SW6SW8SW6SW4SW4SW5SW4SW8W7SW9S8S84S9S10SW9S7S5S4S5SW9

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Thu -- 12:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:58 AM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:28 AM EDT     1.40 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:53 PM EDT     First Quarter
Thu -- 04:28 PM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:13 PM EDT     1.41 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.60.40.100.20.611.21.41.41.20.90.70.40.2-0-00.30.711.31.41.4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.