Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Creswell, NC
May 1, 2024 6:32 AM EDT (10:32 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:09 AM Sunset 7:54 PM Moonrise 1:28 AM Moonset 11:34 AM |
AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 307 Pm Edt Thu Apr 4 2019
Tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Fri night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Sat - W winds around 5 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Sun - N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night - SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
AMZ100 558 Am Edt Wed May 1 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - A weak surface trough will move through the area today. High pressure then builds in for a couple of days before yet another cold front impacts the area over the weekend.
Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 010824 AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 424 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024
SYNOPSIS
A weak surface trough will move through the area today. High pressure then builds in for a couple of days before yet another cold front impacts the area over the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH EARLY EVENING/
As of 200 AM Wednesday...
A weak upper level shortwave will move slowly east across the Coastal Carolinas today. At the SFC, a weakening trough/cold front will approach ENC from the NW through the day. Early this morning, modest elevated moisture transport and weak large-scale forcing with the shortwave will support scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Weak effective shear should keep the risk of strong thunderstorms low, with the greatest thunderstorm risk focused offshore.
By this afternoon, modest moisture advection ahead of the front and upper level wave should allow dewpoints to rise into the mid 60s. Heating of the moist boundary layer should support moderate instability, on the order of ~1000 j/kg SBCAPE. Early in the afternoon, deep layer shear is forecast to be weak (~20kt). However, by mid to late afternoon, the flow aloft will become northwesterly atop a southerly SFC wind. This will give a little curvature to the hodograph, and will lead to a modest increase in deep layer shear to around 25-30kt. At face value, this type of environment is generally supportive of multicell clusters capable of gusty winds of 30-50 mph. The severe weather threat in an environment like this is low (<10% chance), but isn't zero. I suspect the "best" chance of seeing a marginally severe thunderstorm would be during the mid to late- afternoon period as the deep layer shear increases. Storm motions will tend to be erratic today, focusing along outflow boundaries and the seabreeze. The upper level steering flow will be changing through the day as well, which may lead to a mean southeasterly flow with time.
One caveat with the thunderstorm coverage and intensity today is questionable forcing. Low-level convergence with the above- mentioned cold front is forecast to weaken with time as it approaches the coastal plain. Meanwhile, a seabreeze is expected to develop, and this may end up being the best focus of low- level convergence. Between the weakening front, the seabreeze, and some weak support with the upper level shortwave, there still appears to be a decent signal for scattered thunderstorms focused in the 12pm-7pm timeframe. I didn't stray too far from the previous forecast regarding coverage today, but it should be noted that the lack of stronger forcing shows up in some short- term guidance with a lower coverage. I suspect the seabreeze will be the primary driver of convection today, with the surface front adding some support. The lack of stronger forcing should also help to keep the severe weather risk at bay as this will tend to lower the risk of deeper, more sustained, updrafts.
Where thunderstorms occur, rainfall amounts are forecast to average in the 0.25-0.75" range. With an initially weak steering flow, slow storm motions may support rainfall amounts as high as 1-3" for some. Even where the highest rainfall amounts occur, flooding is not expected to be a big impact, primarily due to the lack of appreciable rainfall of late.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 200 AM Wednesday...
Thunderstorm activity should be diurnally-driven, with a downward trend in coverage and intensity after 7pm this evening. In the wake of the thunderstorms, winds will be very light, or even calm, and skies will attempt to clear out. This plus whatever rain falls today should support an increased fog potential tonight. There is some uncertainty with how much clearing will occur, but the pattern, plus model guidance, supports a risk of dense fog.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 4 AM Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGES
- Quiet until this weekend when conditions become more unsettled through early next week
- Best rain chances on Sunday
FORECAST DETAILS
Thursday...A ridge building overhead will send temps well into the 80s across the coastal plain while the beaches hang back in the low 70s. The afternoon seabreeze could support the development of a few showers as it moves inland.
Friday...A passing shortwave embedded within the ridge will cause a slight bump in winds and an increase in cloud cover. Additionally, a dry cold front to our north will dip south into our northern counties. Temps will reach their warmest marks of the week before the cold front moves through with the coastal plain topping out in the upper 80s and the beaches in the mid 70s.
Saturday-Tuesday...The mid-level ridge remains over the eastern US Saturday but weakens as a complex series of shortwave troughs and surface lows move toward the area, resulting in unsettled conditions that will persist into the beginning of next week. Chances for showers and storms start to increase Saturday morning and peak Sunday (30-50%). Shower and storm chances hang around through the period due to the lingering nature the front, but they will be decreasing as we progress into next week (25-30% Monday, 15-20% Tuesday). Saturday's high temps will be a few degrees cooler than Friday due to the dry cold front that will dip south (low 80s coastal plain, low 70s beaches). Temps remain around the same Sunday before rebounding next week with highs expected to reach back into the mid to upper 80s across the coastal plain Tuesday.
AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 06z Thursday/...
As of 130 AM Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGES
- TSRA risk on Wednesday
- BR/FG likely late Wednesday evening (60-80% chance)
FORECAST DETAILS
A weak upper level wave, and an associated surface trough, will move slowly east across the coastal Carolinas over the next 24 hrs. These features will combine with a moistening and destabilizing environment, leading to an increased risk of SHRA and TSRA. Overnight, the TSRA risk looks to be highest offshore and perhaps as far inland as KMRH and KNJM. That is also the area that stands the best chance of low VFR CIGs (3-5k ft) over the next several hours. With continued low-level moistening, there will be a window of opportunity for a period of MVFR CIGs along and east of a line from OAJ to EWN. Guidance isn't sold on the lower CIGs , so for now I've opted to go with a SCT020 layer to reflect the potential.
On Wednesday, afternoon heating plus the seabreeze and the above- mentioned front and upper wave will likely lead to scattered SHRA/TSRA, with a focus in the 17z-23z timeframe.
Where TSRA occur, sub-VFR conditions are likely (VIS and CIGs ).
The strongest TSRA will be capable of gusty/erratic winds to 40kt+. At this time, though, the risk of 50kt+ winds looks low (<5% chance at any one terminal). In the wake of the TSRA, light winds, clearing skies, and recent rainfall should support an increased risk of sub-VFR VIS due to BR/FG. The greatest BR/FG impacts are expected to hold off until after the current TAF cycle.
LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 4 AM Wednesday...Pred VFR expected through Friday.
Conditions become more unsettled this weekend through early next week due to a series of disturbances moving across the area.
There will be multiple chances for showers and storms with Sunday having the greatest threat (30-60%). Periods of lower CIGs and VIS as well as gusty winds if near any storms can be expected.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 200 AM Wednesday...
A weak cold front will move slowly southeast across the ENC waters late this afternoon through tonight. Because of the weak nature of the front, I do not expect a significant northerly wind surge to develop. In fact, a weakening gradient around the front is expected to keep winds light (5-15kt) for most of the day and into tonight. Seas of 3-4 ft are forecast to slowly lay down through tonight. However, the ongoing long-period ENE swell of 3-4 ft at 12-13s hasn't been modeled as well, and seas may not lay down as quick as forecast.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will impact the central and southern waters this morning, associated with an upper level wave approaching from the west. During the afternoon hours, the thunderstorm threat will shift inland with the seabreeze, mainly impacting inland rivers and sounds. Some of those thunderstorms may work back towards the coastal waters this evening, but confidence in this is low. Once the thunderstorms dissipate, there will be an increased risk of fog. The potential exists for a period of sub 1SM visibilities during this time, and we'll monitor this in later forecasts in case a Marine Dense Fog Advisory is needed.
LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 4 AM Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGES
- Sub-SCA conditions with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms
FORECAST DETAILS
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through the period but multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms could create hazardous boating conditions. Sunday presents the best opportunity for showers and storms (30-40%). Winds will be 5-10 kt out of the NE on Thursday but will veer to the southwest by early Friday. A dry cold front will sag south into northern counties on Friday.
North of Cape Hatteras, 5-10 kt winds will be out of the E by the afternoon. South of Cape Hatteras, winds will be 5-10 kt out of the ESE. Winds and seas pick up Saturday-Sunday as a front approaches. Winds will be ESE around 10-15 kt Saturday and then southerly by Sunday. Seas remain around 2 ft until Saturday when they will increase to 2-4 ft.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 424 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024
SYNOPSIS
A weak surface trough will move through the area today. High pressure then builds in for a couple of days before yet another cold front impacts the area over the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH EARLY EVENING/
As of 200 AM Wednesday...
A weak upper level shortwave will move slowly east across the Coastal Carolinas today. At the SFC, a weakening trough/cold front will approach ENC from the NW through the day. Early this morning, modest elevated moisture transport and weak large-scale forcing with the shortwave will support scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Weak effective shear should keep the risk of strong thunderstorms low, with the greatest thunderstorm risk focused offshore.
By this afternoon, modest moisture advection ahead of the front and upper level wave should allow dewpoints to rise into the mid 60s. Heating of the moist boundary layer should support moderate instability, on the order of ~1000 j/kg SBCAPE. Early in the afternoon, deep layer shear is forecast to be weak (~20kt). However, by mid to late afternoon, the flow aloft will become northwesterly atop a southerly SFC wind. This will give a little curvature to the hodograph, and will lead to a modest increase in deep layer shear to around 25-30kt. At face value, this type of environment is generally supportive of multicell clusters capable of gusty winds of 30-50 mph. The severe weather threat in an environment like this is low (<10% chance), but isn't zero. I suspect the "best" chance of seeing a marginally severe thunderstorm would be during the mid to late- afternoon period as the deep layer shear increases. Storm motions will tend to be erratic today, focusing along outflow boundaries and the seabreeze. The upper level steering flow will be changing through the day as well, which may lead to a mean southeasterly flow with time.
One caveat with the thunderstorm coverage and intensity today is questionable forcing. Low-level convergence with the above- mentioned cold front is forecast to weaken with time as it approaches the coastal plain. Meanwhile, a seabreeze is expected to develop, and this may end up being the best focus of low- level convergence. Between the weakening front, the seabreeze, and some weak support with the upper level shortwave, there still appears to be a decent signal for scattered thunderstorms focused in the 12pm-7pm timeframe. I didn't stray too far from the previous forecast regarding coverage today, but it should be noted that the lack of stronger forcing shows up in some short- term guidance with a lower coverage. I suspect the seabreeze will be the primary driver of convection today, with the surface front adding some support. The lack of stronger forcing should also help to keep the severe weather risk at bay as this will tend to lower the risk of deeper, more sustained, updrafts.
Where thunderstorms occur, rainfall amounts are forecast to average in the 0.25-0.75" range. With an initially weak steering flow, slow storm motions may support rainfall amounts as high as 1-3" for some. Even where the highest rainfall amounts occur, flooding is not expected to be a big impact, primarily due to the lack of appreciable rainfall of late.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 200 AM Wednesday...
Thunderstorm activity should be diurnally-driven, with a downward trend in coverage and intensity after 7pm this evening. In the wake of the thunderstorms, winds will be very light, or even calm, and skies will attempt to clear out. This plus whatever rain falls today should support an increased fog potential tonight. There is some uncertainty with how much clearing will occur, but the pattern, plus model guidance, supports a risk of dense fog.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 4 AM Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGES
- Quiet until this weekend when conditions become more unsettled through early next week
- Best rain chances on Sunday
FORECAST DETAILS
Thursday...A ridge building overhead will send temps well into the 80s across the coastal plain while the beaches hang back in the low 70s. The afternoon seabreeze could support the development of a few showers as it moves inland.
Friday...A passing shortwave embedded within the ridge will cause a slight bump in winds and an increase in cloud cover. Additionally, a dry cold front to our north will dip south into our northern counties. Temps will reach their warmest marks of the week before the cold front moves through with the coastal plain topping out in the upper 80s and the beaches in the mid 70s.
Saturday-Tuesday...The mid-level ridge remains over the eastern US Saturday but weakens as a complex series of shortwave troughs and surface lows move toward the area, resulting in unsettled conditions that will persist into the beginning of next week. Chances for showers and storms start to increase Saturday morning and peak Sunday (30-50%). Shower and storm chances hang around through the period due to the lingering nature the front, but they will be decreasing as we progress into next week (25-30% Monday, 15-20% Tuesday). Saturday's high temps will be a few degrees cooler than Friday due to the dry cold front that will dip south (low 80s coastal plain, low 70s beaches). Temps remain around the same Sunday before rebounding next week with highs expected to reach back into the mid to upper 80s across the coastal plain Tuesday.
AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 06z Thursday/...
As of 130 AM Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGES
- TSRA risk on Wednesday
- BR/FG likely late Wednesday evening (60-80% chance)
FORECAST DETAILS
A weak upper level wave, and an associated surface trough, will move slowly east across the coastal Carolinas over the next 24 hrs. These features will combine with a moistening and destabilizing environment, leading to an increased risk of SHRA and TSRA. Overnight, the TSRA risk looks to be highest offshore and perhaps as far inland as KMRH and KNJM. That is also the area that stands the best chance of low VFR CIGs (3-5k ft) over the next several hours. With continued low-level moistening, there will be a window of opportunity for a period of MVFR CIGs along and east of a line from OAJ to EWN. Guidance isn't sold on the lower CIGs , so for now I've opted to go with a SCT020 layer to reflect the potential.
On Wednesday, afternoon heating plus the seabreeze and the above- mentioned front and upper wave will likely lead to scattered SHRA/TSRA, with a focus in the 17z-23z timeframe.
Where TSRA occur, sub-VFR conditions are likely (VIS and CIGs ).
The strongest TSRA will be capable of gusty/erratic winds to 40kt+. At this time, though, the risk of 50kt+ winds looks low (<5% chance at any one terminal). In the wake of the TSRA, light winds, clearing skies, and recent rainfall should support an increased risk of sub-VFR VIS due to BR/FG. The greatest BR/FG impacts are expected to hold off until after the current TAF cycle.
LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 4 AM Wednesday...Pred VFR expected through Friday.
Conditions become more unsettled this weekend through early next week due to a series of disturbances moving across the area.
There will be multiple chances for showers and storms with Sunday having the greatest threat (30-60%). Periods of lower CIGs and VIS as well as gusty winds if near any storms can be expected.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 200 AM Wednesday...
A weak cold front will move slowly southeast across the ENC waters late this afternoon through tonight. Because of the weak nature of the front, I do not expect a significant northerly wind surge to develop. In fact, a weakening gradient around the front is expected to keep winds light (5-15kt) for most of the day and into tonight. Seas of 3-4 ft are forecast to slowly lay down through tonight. However, the ongoing long-period ENE swell of 3-4 ft at 12-13s hasn't been modeled as well, and seas may not lay down as quick as forecast.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will impact the central and southern waters this morning, associated with an upper level wave approaching from the west. During the afternoon hours, the thunderstorm threat will shift inland with the seabreeze, mainly impacting inland rivers and sounds. Some of those thunderstorms may work back towards the coastal waters this evening, but confidence in this is low. Once the thunderstorms dissipate, there will be an increased risk of fog. The potential exists for a period of sub 1SM visibilities during this time, and we'll monitor this in later forecasts in case a Marine Dense Fog Advisory is needed.
LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 4 AM Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGES
- Sub-SCA conditions with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms
FORECAST DETAILS
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through the period but multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms could create hazardous boating conditions. Sunday presents the best opportunity for showers and storms (30-40%). Winds will be 5-10 kt out of the NE on Thursday but will veer to the southwest by early Friday. A dry cold front will sag south into northern counties on Friday.
North of Cape Hatteras, 5-10 kt winds will be out of the E by the afternoon. South of Cape Hatteras, winds will be 5-10 kt out of the ESE. Winds and seas pick up Saturday-Sunday as a front approaches. Winds will be ESE around 10-15 kt Saturday and then southerly by Sunday. Seas remain around 2 ft until Saturday when they will increase to 2-4 ft.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 | 44 mi | 44 min | SW 12G | 68°F | 29.94 | |||
| ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC | 46 mi | 44 min | SW 8G | 67°F | 69°F | 29.98 | ||
| 44056 - Duck FRF, NC | 47 mi | 36 min | 57°F | 2 ft |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KEDE NORTHEASTERN RGNL,NC | 18 sm | 27 min | SW 04 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 68°F | 68°F | 100% | 29.96 |
Kitty Hawk (ocean)
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:24 AM EDT 3.44 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:25 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 06:09 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT Last Quarter
Wed -- 08:01 AM EDT 0.51 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:30 PM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 02:02 PM EDT 3.01 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:50 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 08:12 PM EDT 0.46 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:24 AM EDT 3.44 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:25 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 06:09 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT Last Quarter
Wed -- 08:01 AM EDT 0.51 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:30 PM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 02:02 PM EDT 3.01 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:50 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 08:12 PM EDT 0.46 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 3.1 |
| 1 am |
| 3.4 |
| 2 am |
| 3.4 |
| 3 am |
| 3 |
| 4 am |
| 2.5 |
| 5 am |
| 1.8 |
| 6 am |
| 1.1 |
| 7 am |
| 0.7 |
| 8 am |
| 0.5 |
| 9 am |
| 0.7 |
| 10 am |
| 1.1 |
| 11 am |
| 1.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 2 pm |
| 3 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 1 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.7 |
Duck Pier
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:28 AM EDT 3.47 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:26 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 06:09 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT Last Quarter
Wed -- 08:01 AM EDT 0.48 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:30 PM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 02:06 PM EDT 3.03 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:51 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 08:12 PM EDT 0.44 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:28 AM EDT 3.47 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:26 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 06:09 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT Last Quarter
Wed -- 08:01 AM EDT 0.48 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:30 PM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 02:06 PM EDT 3.03 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:51 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 08:12 PM EDT 0.44 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina (2), Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 3.1 |
| 1 am |
| 3.4 |
| 2 am |
| 3.4 |
| 3 am |
| 3.1 |
| 4 am |
| 2.5 |
| 5 am |
| 1.8 |
| 6 am |
| 1.1 |
| 7 am |
| 0.7 |
| 8 am |
| 0.5 |
| 9 am |
| 0.6 |
| 10 am |
| 1.1 |
| 11 am |
| 1.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 2 pm |
| 3 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 1 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.6 |
Morehead City, NC,
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