Saturday, September23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Williamston, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 7:05PM Saturday September 23, 2017 2:21 PM EDT (18:21 UTC) Moonrise 9:08AMMoonset 8:22PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 115 Pm Edt Sat Sep 23 2017
This afternoon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Mon night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue..Tropical storm conditions possible.
Tue night..Tropical storm conditions possible.
Wed..Tropical storm conditions possible.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Williamston, NC
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location: 35.82, -77.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 231708
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
108 pm edt Sat sep 23 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will extend into the area over the weekend.

Hurricane maria is expected to track off the southeast coast
late this weekend and next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 108 pm Saturday... High pressure will continue to build
south over eastern nc this afternoon with sunny skies and very
warm temperatures well into the 80s for the first official day
of fall.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Sunday
As of 4 am Saturday... Dry again tonight with high pressure still
in control of our weather. The gradient between high pressure to
our north and maria off the sc coast will be a bit stronger
tonight. This should allow enough mixing to prevent as much fog
as we have experienced the past few nights. Lows again in the
60s inland to near 70 along the coast.

Long term Sunday through Friday
As of 4 am Saturday... High pressure centered over the great
lakes will extend down into the southeast through midweek, while
we continue to monitor hurricane maria. Increasing uncertainty
continues regarding the track of maria as the latest models have
shifted westward. Eastern nc residents and interested parties
should continue to monitor the latest official forecasts from
nhc.

Sunday through Monday night... Surface high pressure and upper
ridge will continue to build in from the north early next week,
as the remnants of jose weakens well off the NE coast. Pred dry
weather expected Sunday but could see some showers pushing
onshore as early as Monday as maria lifts north off the
southeast coast. Low level thickness values support above
normal temps with highs in the mid 80s inland to around 80 along
the coast. Overnight lows expected in the mid 60s coastal plain
to upper 60s low 70s along the coast.

Tuesday through Friday... Hurricane maria is currently forecast
to slowly lift north off the SE coast through mid week. Eventual
track will be determined by several factors including the
strength of the upper ridge and the timing of a shortwave trough
and attendant cold front expected to push across the mid-
atlantic states mid to late week. It is still too soon to
determine specific impacts for eastern nc, which will be very
dependent on the track how close to the coast it gets.

Discouragingly, the 12z model guidance continues to shift the
track westward and have slowed the system down and may impact
the area through Thursday. Regardless of the exact track, rough
surf and dangerous rip currents are likely through much of next
week, as large long period southeast swells build. Gusty N nw
winds, minor coastal flooding, and ocean overwash erosion will
be also possible, with the greatest threat along the outer
banks. Continue slight chance to chance pops through mid week,
highest eastern sections. The next frontal system will approach
the area late week aiding to maria pushes further ene offshore.

Temps through the period, near to slightly above normal with
highs in the 80s and lows in the mid 60s low 70s.

Aviation 18z Saturday through Thursday
Short term through Sunday ...

as of 108 pm Saturday... Main concern is the potential for sub
vfr conditions late tonight in fog low clouds. Looks like winds
should decouple well inland but only briefly as the pressure
gradient tightens late. In addition moisture profiles remain
very shallow. Not seeing a strong signal in the aviation
guidance supporting subVFR so will just include a brief 9-13z
period of possible MVFR conditions due to low confidence but
with a nod toward persistence as we have had 3 consecutive
nights with subVFR conditions. Any fog low clouds should
dissipate around 13z withVFR conditions prevailing the
remainder of the day.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday ...

as of 4 am Saturday...VFR conditions will dominate through
Monday, though some early morning fg br and low stratus may
develop each night as a ridge of high pressure will be across
the region. Periods of sub-vfr possible Tuesday into Wednesday
with isolated to scattered showers pushing onshore as maria
lifts toward the region.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 108 pm Saturday... Hurricane swell will continue to impact
the nc waters through tonight. 5 to 8 ft seas are currently
being observed at the buoys and this will gradually build to 7
to 10 ft overnight. Light northerly winds this afternoon will
increase out of the northeast tonight to 10 to 20 kts, as the
gradient increases over the waters between high pressure to our
north and maria well off the SE coast.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday ...

as of 4 am Saturday... High pressure centered over the great
lakes will build down into the southeast through the period,
while hurricane maria lifts north off the southeast coast.

Increasing uncertainty continues regarding the track of
hurricane maria as it approaches the region as latest model
guidance continues a westward trend closer to the nc coast as
well as continues to slow it down. Mariners and interested
parties should continue to monitor the latest official forecasts
from nhc. SCA continue for all coastal waters through the
period.

N NE winds 10-20 kt Sun then likely increasing to 15-25 kt mon
and Tue as maria lifts northward. At this time strongest winds
look like Tue and wed. Long period southeast swell will continue
to gradually build through the period, peaking mid week. Have
capped seas at 15-18 ft for the waters next week, though could
end up being much higher if track shifts more westward. Still
too soon to determine specific impacts from maria, but dangerous
seas expected and gusty N NW winds will be possible. Rough surf
and dangerous rip currents are likely.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz095-
098-103-104.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt Wednesday for amz150-152-
154-156-158.

Synopsis... Jme eh
near term... Jme eh
short term... Eh
long term... Sk
aviation... Jme sk
marine... Jme eh sk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 75 mi52 min NNE 8.9 G 11 74°F 76°F1017.1 hPa
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 77 mi52 min 77°F4 ft
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 78 mi52 min NNE 5.1 G 8.9 82°F 77°F1017.5 hPa

Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Washington, Warren Field Airport, NC17 mi37 minN 810.00 miPartly Cloudy85°F64°F52%1017.3 hPa
Pitt-Greenville Airport, NC21 mi27 minN 510.00 miFair84°F62°F48%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from OCW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6NW3N4N4CalmCalmCalmNE3NE5CalmN3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N4N4N8NE5NE4
1 day agoCalmCalmNE4CalmCalmCalmCalmNE6CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4NW4CalmN5
2 days agoW8W6W6NW4NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmE6NE6NE3

Tide / Current Tables for Suffolk, Nansemond River, Virginia
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Suffolk
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:12 AM EDT     4.32 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:11 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:06 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:34 PM EDT     4.69 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:45 PM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:19 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
44.34.13.52.61.50.70.30.51.12.13.24.14.64.64.23.32.31.30.60.50.91.62.5

Tide / Current Tables for Suffolk, Virginia
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Suffolk
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:15 AM EDT     4.43 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:14 AM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:06 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:38 PM EDT     4.82 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:52 PM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:19 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
44.44.33.62.71.60.80.30.51.12.13.24.24.74.84.33.52.41.40.80.50.91.62.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.