Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Manteo, NC
May 17, 2024 1:44 PM EDT (17:44 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:54 AM Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 1:40 PM Moonset 1:57 AM |
AMZ150 S Of Currituck Beach Light To Oregon Inlet Nc Out 20 Nm- 1050 Am Edt Fri May 17 2024
Rest of today - N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Wave detail: ne 4 ft at 7 seconds and se 2 ft at 6 seconds.
Tonight - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: ne 4 ft at 7 seconds and se 1 ft at 6 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: ne 4 ft at 8 seconds and S 1 ft at 6 seconds. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers.
Sat night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 4 ft. Wave detail: ne 4 ft at 8 seconds. A chance of tstms. Showers likely.
Sun - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave detail: ne 5 ft at 9 seconds and E 3 ft at 5 seconds. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Sun night - NE winds around 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Wave detail: ne 6 ft at 7 seconds and S 1 ft at 5 seconds. A chance of showers.
Mon - NE winds around 20 kt. Seas around 6 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Mon night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
Tue - NE winds around 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Tue night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ100 1050 Am Edt Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - A frontal boundary will stall across the waters today, then shift east tonight as another area of low pressure approaches from the west. That low will impact the area through early next week.
Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 171508 AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1108 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
A frontal boundary will stall across the waters today, then shift east tonight as another area of low pressure approaches from the west. That low will impact the area through early next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 1045 AM Friday...
Surface analysis this morning shows a well-defined low offshore, east of ENC. In the wake of the low, a stationary frontal boundary stretches north to south along the coast of the Mid- Atlantic. Locally, this boundary has reached about as far west as the mouth of the Pamlico River and Ocracoke. This boundary separates mid 70s temps to the west, and low 60s to the east. West of this boundary, a weak area of low pressure was noted over central NC, with a subtle confluence boundary stretching SE to the Crystal Coast.
Boundary layer moistening/destabilization along the above- mentioned confluence zone should support at least an isolated coverage of thunderstorms developing by early this afternoon.
Recent short-term guidance continue to support this potential as well. The ongoing forecast handles this potential well, so significant changes were not needed on the precip side. The main forecast change was to increase cloudcover along the Outer Banks based on recent satellite trends. I also lowered highs along the OBX for today given the potential for clouds lingering longer than originally forecast.
Of note, recent RAP guidance suggests deep layer shear may increase to 35-40kt this afternoon. While instability is forecast to be weak, the increase in shear at least loosely opens the door for a strong storm or two (mainly a gusty wind threat). Overall, though, the risk of severe weather still appears low (<5% chance for the area at large).
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..Upper ridging continues to build in from the SW this morning, resulting in mostly clear skies and light winds for much of mainland ENC. Fog is quickly dissipating this morning, and lows reached the upper 50s to low 60s this morning.
Ridging crests over the area Friday but shortwave energy will be approaching that could aid in initiating a few showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon, generally along the seabreeze as it migrates inland. Instability will be approaching 1kJ/kg for SW portions of the CWA and the ridging aloft keeps kinematics less than impressive, in turn limiting any severe potential. However a rumble of thunder or two from storms that collapse as quickly as they form can't be ruled out. Area of highest moisture convergence and instability in the afternoon and evening Friday continues to be Duplin/Onslow/Jones/Lenoir counties as the sea breeze advances, highlighting this area for the greatest thunder potential. MaxTs a few ticks warmer than Thursday for inland zones, low 80s most. Cooler Ts expected along the coast where marine air will be felt as the seabreeze penetrates further inland than Thurs.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/
As of 700 AM Friday...A southern stream wave will transport ample gulf moisture into the region Friday night into Saturday.
Showers and thunderstorms will slowly move eastward through the short term while a sfc low approaches from our west. Severe potential and heaviest rainfall will be occuring through the day Saturday. See the long term discussion section for more information.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 400 AM Friday...A complex low pressure system will impact the region through the weekend. High pressure builds in from the north for the first half of the workweek. A cold front will approach from the west toward the latter half of the week.
Saturday through Sunday night...A complex low pressure system will impact the region through the weekend. A southern stream wave will transport ample gulf moisture into the region Saturday with sfc low pressure moving across the region late Saturday or early Sunday. An unstable environment will be in place ahead of the low with fcst CAPEs around 1500-2000 J/kg along with 40-50 kt 0-6km bulk shear that could provide support for strong to severe thunderstorms. SPC has upgraded the outlook to include a Slight Risk (2 of 5) of severe storms across areas south of the Pamlico River and continues a Marginal Risk (1 of 5) across the northern portion of the FA. The low will push offshore Saturday night with northerly flow ensuing as high pressure begins to ridge southward across the Mid-Atlantic bringing a more stable environment across the area, however the upper trough will slowly push across the area Sunday continuing to bring showers across the region. Beneficial rainfall is expected with much of the area forecast to receive around 1-2" with locally higher amounts possible through the weekend.
Monday through Thursday...The upper low slowly slides southward early next week with high pressure building across the Mid- Atlantic. There could be a few lingering showers early next week, especially along the coast, but otherwise expect dry conditions through Wednesday. Guidance is a bit slower with a mid level shortwave and attendant cold front approaching the area which now looks to move across the area late Thursday, but moisture continues to appear limited with deep layer westerly flow providing subsidence to the lee of the Appalachians.
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Friday Night/...
As of 715 AM Friday...VFR conditions today with the exception of OBX, where low stratus from the deepening low offshore is keeping conditions sub-VFR. We have a slight chance of thunderstorms developing along and ahead of the sea breeze this afternoon and evening, with temporary sub-VFR conditions possible with the storms. Tonight will bring another round of MVFR becoming IFR conditions as moisture advects in from the west ahead of a sfc low. Showers and slight chance of thunderstorms accompanied by lower vis and low ceilings on tap for tonight into Saturday morning.
LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 430 AM Friday...A low pressure system will impact the area through the weekend bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions Friday night through Sunday. Pred VFR conditions are expected Monday into Tuesday.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/...
As of 1045 AM Friday...
Winds and seas have been a bit higher than forecast this morning, and the forecast has been adjusted to reflect this trend. Both are still on the margins for a Small Craft Advisory, though, and guidance suggests both will lay down by this afternoon. Given all of the above, I'll opt to go with no headlines given the marginal, and expected shorter-duration, of the hazards.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Seas are 2-3ft this morning, with winds generally northerly near 10 kts with the low spinning offshore.
Onslow Bay and Neuse river are more westerly, away from the influence of the low. Seas respond to winds Fri becoming 2-4ft from N to S, 3-5ft over outer central waters. Winds veer to become southeasterly through Friday night as a sfc low approaches from our west.
LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 445 AM Friday...A complex low pressure system will impact the region Friday night through Sunday bringing unsettled weather through the period. Guidance for the most part keeping conditions below SCA criteria through Saturday night as low pressure transits the Southeast. The best opportunity for SCA conditions will develop Sunday and continue through Monday with N to NE winds around 20-25 kt and seas building to 5-8 ft as low pressure deepens as it pulls offshore. Conditions gradually improve Monday night into Tuesday with seas expected to drop below 6 ft during the day Tuesday. There are differences among the models the timing and track of this system, so be sure to follow updates as details come into focus.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1108 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
A frontal boundary will stall across the waters today, then shift east tonight as another area of low pressure approaches from the west. That low will impact the area through early next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 1045 AM Friday...
Surface analysis this morning shows a well-defined low offshore, east of ENC. In the wake of the low, a stationary frontal boundary stretches north to south along the coast of the Mid- Atlantic. Locally, this boundary has reached about as far west as the mouth of the Pamlico River and Ocracoke. This boundary separates mid 70s temps to the west, and low 60s to the east. West of this boundary, a weak area of low pressure was noted over central NC, with a subtle confluence boundary stretching SE to the Crystal Coast.
Boundary layer moistening/destabilization along the above- mentioned confluence zone should support at least an isolated coverage of thunderstorms developing by early this afternoon.
Recent short-term guidance continue to support this potential as well. The ongoing forecast handles this potential well, so significant changes were not needed on the precip side. The main forecast change was to increase cloudcover along the Outer Banks based on recent satellite trends. I also lowered highs along the OBX for today given the potential for clouds lingering longer than originally forecast.
Of note, recent RAP guidance suggests deep layer shear may increase to 35-40kt this afternoon. While instability is forecast to be weak, the increase in shear at least loosely opens the door for a strong storm or two (mainly a gusty wind threat). Overall, though, the risk of severe weather still appears low (<5% chance for the area at large).
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..Upper ridging continues to build in from the SW this morning, resulting in mostly clear skies and light winds for much of mainland ENC. Fog is quickly dissipating this morning, and lows reached the upper 50s to low 60s this morning.
Ridging crests over the area Friday but shortwave energy will be approaching that could aid in initiating a few showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon, generally along the seabreeze as it migrates inland. Instability will be approaching 1kJ/kg for SW portions of the CWA and the ridging aloft keeps kinematics less than impressive, in turn limiting any severe potential. However a rumble of thunder or two from storms that collapse as quickly as they form can't be ruled out. Area of highest moisture convergence and instability in the afternoon and evening Friday continues to be Duplin/Onslow/Jones/Lenoir counties as the sea breeze advances, highlighting this area for the greatest thunder potential. MaxTs a few ticks warmer than Thursday for inland zones, low 80s most. Cooler Ts expected along the coast where marine air will be felt as the seabreeze penetrates further inland than Thurs.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/
As of 700 AM Friday...A southern stream wave will transport ample gulf moisture into the region Friday night into Saturday.
Showers and thunderstorms will slowly move eastward through the short term while a sfc low approaches from our west. Severe potential and heaviest rainfall will be occuring through the day Saturday. See the long term discussion section for more information.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 400 AM Friday...A complex low pressure system will impact the region through the weekend. High pressure builds in from the north for the first half of the workweek. A cold front will approach from the west toward the latter half of the week.
Saturday through Sunday night...A complex low pressure system will impact the region through the weekend. A southern stream wave will transport ample gulf moisture into the region Saturday with sfc low pressure moving across the region late Saturday or early Sunday. An unstable environment will be in place ahead of the low with fcst CAPEs around 1500-2000 J/kg along with 40-50 kt 0-6km bulk shear that could provide support for strong to severe thunderstorms. SPC has upgraded the outlook to include a Slight Risk (2 of 5) of severe storms across areas south of the Pamlico River and continues a Marginal Risk (1 of 5) across the northern portion of the FA. The low will push offshore Saturday night with northerly flow ensuing as high pressure begins to ridge southward across the Mid-Atlantic bringing a more stable environment across the area, however the upper trough will slowly push across the area Sunday continuing to bring showers across the region. Beneficial rainfall is expected with much of the area forecast to receive around 1-2" with locally higher amounts possible through the weekend.
Monday through Thursday...The upper low slowly slides southward early next week with high pressure building across the Mid- Atlantic. There could be a few lingering showers early next week, especially along the coast, but otherwise expect dry conditions through Wednesday. Guidance is a bit slower with a mid level shortwave and attendant cold front approaching the area which now looks to move across the area late Thursday, but moisture continues to appear limited with deep layer westerly flow providing subsidence to the lee of the Appalachians.
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Friday Night/...
As of 715 AM Friday...VFR conditions today with the exception of OBX, where low stratus from the deepening low offshore is keeping conditions sub-VFR. We have a slight chance of thunderstorms developing along and ahead of the sea breeze this afternoon and evening, with temporary sub-VFR conditions possible with the storms. Tonight will bring another round of MVFR becoming IFR conditions as moisture advects in from the west ahead of a sfc low. Showers and slight chance of thunderstorms accompanied by lower vis and low ceilings on tap for tonight into Saturday morning.
LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 430 AM Friday...A low pressure system will impact the area through the weekend bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions Friday night through Sunday. Pred VFR conditions are expected Monday into Tuesday.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/...
As of 1045 AM Friday...
Winds and seas have been a bit higher than forecast this morning, and the forecast has been adjusted to reflect this trend. Both are still on the margins for a Small Craft Advisory, though, and guidance suggests both will lay down by this afternoon. Given all of the above, I'll opt to go with no headlines given the marginal, and expected shorter-duration, of the hazards.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Seas are 2-3ft this morning, with winds generally northerly near 10 kts with the low spinning offshore.
Onslow Bay and Neuse river are more westerly, away from the influence of the low. Seas respond to winds Fri becoming 2-4ft from N to S, 3-5ft over outer central waters. Winds veer to become southeasterly through Friday night as a sfc low approaches from our west.
LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 445 AM Friday...A complex low pressure system will impact the region Friday night through Sunday bringing unsettled weather through the period. Guidance for the most part keeping conditions below SCA criteria through Saturday night as low pressure transits the Southeast. The best opportunity for SCA conditions will develop Sunday and continue through Monday with N to NE winds around 20-25 kt and seas building to 5-8 ft as low pressure deepens as it pulls offshore. Conditions gradually improve Monday night into Tuesday with seas expected to drop below 6 ft during the day Tuesday. There are differences among the models the timing and track of this system, so be sure to follow updates as details come into focus.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC | 10 mi | 57 min | N 11G | 61°F | 67°F | 30.00 | ||
| 44086 | 14 mi | 49 min | 60°F | 5 ft | ||||
| DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 | 19 mi | 57 min | NNE 8.9G | 59°F | 29.97 | |||
| 44056 - Duck FRF, NC | 20 mi | 49 min | 65°F | 4 ft | ||||
| 44095 | 21 mi | 49 min | 60°F | 5 ft | ||||
| 44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) | 24 mi | 75 min | 59°F | 60°F | 5 ft | |||
| 41082 | 28 mi | 165 min | NNE 16 | 57°F | 58°F | 29.94 | ||
| 41083 | 45 mi | 165 min | NNE 16 | 57°F | 58°F | 29.93 | ||
| 44079 | 48 mi | 165 min | N 16 | 56°F | 55°F | 29.93 | ||
| HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC | 48 mi | 57 min | NNE 11G | 64°F | 72°F | 29.97 | ||
| 41120 | 49 mi | 105 min | 64°F | 5 ft |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMQI DARE COUNTY RGNL,NC | 2 sm | 19 min | NNE 08 | 10 sm | Overcast | 63°F | 55°F | 77% | 29.98 | |
| KFFA FIRST FLIGHT,NC | 8 sm | 14 min | N 08 | 10 sm | Overcast | 61°F | 55°F | 82% | 29.96 |
Jennetts Pier (ocean)
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:56 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 03:28 AM EDT 2.88 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:54 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 09:46 AM EDT 0.65 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:39 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 03:59 PM EDT 3.13 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:03 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 10:22 PM EDT 0.69 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:56 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 03:28 AM EDT 2.88 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:54 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 09:46 AM EDT 0.65 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:39 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 03:59 PM EDT 3.13 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:03 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 10:22 PM EDT 0.69 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Jennetts Pier (ocean), North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.6 |
| 1 am |
| 2.1 |
| 2 am |
| 2.6 |
| 3 am |
| 2.8 |
| 4 am |
| 2.8 |
| 5 am |
| 2.6 |
| 6 am |
| 2.1 |
| 7 am |
| 1.6 |
| 8 am |
| 1.1 |
| 9 am |
| 0.7 |
| 10 am |
| 0.7 |
| 11 am |
| 0.9 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 2 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 3 |
| 4 pm |
| 3.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 3 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 7 pm |
| 2 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 1 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.8 |
Roanoke Sound Channel
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:56 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 05:49 AM EDT 0.41 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:55 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 12:13 PM EDT 0.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:39 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 06:20 PM EDT 0.45 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:02 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:56 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 05:49 AM EDT 0.41 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:55 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 12:13 PM EDT 0.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:39 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 06:20 PM EDT 0.45 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:02 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Roanoke Sound Channel, North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.1 |
| 1 am |
| 0.1 |
| 2 am |
| 0.2 |
| 3 am |
| 0.3 |
| 4 am |
| 0.3 |
| 5 am |
| 0.4 |
| 6 am |
| 0.4 |
| 7 am |
| 0.4 |
| 8 am |
| 0.3 |
| 9 am |
| 0.3 |
| 10 am |
| 0.2 |
| 11 am |
| 0.1 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.2 |
Morehead City, NC,
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