Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rocky Mount, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 7:32PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 7:07 PM EDT (23:07 UTC) Moonrise 7:14AMMoonset 8:27PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ131 Alligator River- 632 Pm Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Waves a moderate chop...becoming a light chop.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Showers, tstms... Mainly in the afternoon.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming W after midnight. Waves a moderate chop...diminishing to light chop after midnight. Showers and tstms in the evening...then a chance of showers after midnight.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming se 10 to 15 kt. Waves light chop...increasing to a moderate chop. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers...then showers likely. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rocky Mount, NC
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location: 35.97, -77.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 292020
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
420 pm edt Wed mar 29 2017

Synopsis
Weak high pressure will move over central nc today and remain in
control through Thursday before low pressure brings unsettled
weather to the area for Friday and Friday night.

Near term /through tonight/
As of 420 pm Wednesday...

high pressure over northern ontario will wedge south into the area
this evening and overnight. The extensive broken layer of
stratocu(by-product of the morning stratus) may dissipate with loss
of heating. However, low clouds are expected to re-develop
overnight, especially across the western piedmont, as the 925-850mb
sely moist warm air advection, aided by orographic ascent along the
higher terrain will result in areas of stratus across the western
and possibly central piedmont between 06 to 12z. In fact, saturation
is sufficiently deep that the NW piedmont/triad could see some very
light rain and/or sprinkles by daybreak. Lows ranging from the mid
40s NE to mid 50s sw.

Short term /Thursday and Thursday night/
As of 420 pm Wednesday...

continued southerly warm moist air advection ahead of the plains
closed cyclone lifting northward into the mid ms valley, atop the
shallow cool airmass at the surface will result in the development
of cad across the NW piedmont, especially given the potential for
some light rain tomorrow morning. Even without any light rain
Thursday morning, a strong subsidence inversion aloft will help to
lock in the low-clouds, with fcst soundings showing ceilings likely
to remain MVFR in the triad, which will greatly temper daytime
heating. Highs ranging from mid 50s NW to lower 70s se.

Upper ridge aloft will shift east of the area late by mid to late
afternoon as the closed cyclone progresses across the central ms
river valley into the ohio valley. This will give rise to increasing
pops across the western piedmont late in the afternoon/early
evening. Rain chances will increase ten-fold between 06 to 12z, with
increasing potential for elevated showers and thunderstorms within
the strengthening low-level warm advection within the 40-50kt llj.

Low-level kinematics along the northward retreating wedge boundary
will be maximized during this period and a threat for damaging winds
and tornadoes will need to be monitored if storms/updrafts can
become surface base. Stay tune. Lows Thursday night in the 50s north
to lower 60s south.

Long term /Friday through Wednesday/
As of 300 pm Wednesday...

fri-fri night: the 12z gfs/ecmwf are in fairly close agreement
showing the upper low tracking ene through the oh valley during the
day Friday, progressing into western pa late Friday into Friday
night. However, differences in timing persist between the gfs/ecmwf,
and the 12z NAM (an outlier) shows the upper low tracking east
through ky into WV fri/fri night (much closer than the GFS or
ecmwf). Forecast confidence remains lower than normal, ESP given
uncertainty in the evolution of upstream convection across the deep
south thu/thu night in addition to uncertainty in the strength/
extent/evolution of the cad wedge expected to develop over central
nc on thu. Although confidence in precipitation chances remains
high, forecast specifics such as precip amounts, temperatures and
intensity/mode of convection remain relatively low. With the latest
guidance in mind, will indicate highs ranging from the mid 60s in
the triad to the mid 70s in the sandhills/se coastal plain. Expect
precipitation to end from sw-ne as early as late Friday aft/eve,
with skies clearing in the wake of a cold frontal passage Fri night.

Lows Sat morning will depend primarily upon FROPA timing, ranging
from the upper 40s/lower 50s (n/nw) to mid 50s (s/se). The 12z
gfs/ecmwf suggest a lower potential for severe weather given an
upper low track further to the north and a slightly faster
progression of the system. The 12z NAM would suggest a more robust
potential for severe weather due to the closer proximity of the
upper low and slightly slower progression of the system which would
result in favorable diurnal timing, as well. Uncertainty remains too
high to say much more w/regard to the severe weather potential.

Sat-sun night: expect dry conditions and a warming trend over the
weekend as a shortwave ridge builds east across the mid-atlantic and
carolinas. Expect highs in the lower/mid 70s Sat and mid 70s Sunday
as a shortwave ridge aloft tracks across the region from the west.

Mon-wed: expect increasing cloud cover during the day Monday and a
chance for convection Mon night through Tue as the next upper level
low /attendant sfc cyclone/ approach from the west. -vincent

Aviation /18z Wednesday through Monday/
As of 200 pm Wednesday...

24 hour TAF period: high pressure will wedge south into the area
tonight and into the day on Thursday. The stable low-level nely
flow has advected a shallow marine layer into the area, producing
ceilings between 3 to 4kft. Goes-r 16 visible imagery shows these
low-endVFR ceilings quickly morphing into a scattered to broken
stratocu deck.

There is medium confidence to high confidence that an area of MVFR
stratus will at kint and kgso, within the 925-850mb sely upslope
flow along the eastern slopes of the higher terrain. Though
confidence is not as high, ceilings at krdu, krwi and kfay are
expected to remainVFR, with the potential that krdu could be
on the eastern periphery of the sub-vfr ceilings. A strong mid-level
subsidence inversion over the area on Thursday will result in slow
lift/improvement of the stratus layer, with a high likelihood that
sub-vfr ceilings at kgso and kint could linger into the mid to late
afternoon.

Long term: a warm front associated with a low pressure system
tracking through the middle ms valley will bring the chance for
showers and thunderstorms Thursday night late Thursday night through
mid to late morning hours on Friday. High pressure withVFR
conditions should return Friday afternoon and will persist
through the weekend. The next storm system is expected to impact
the area on Monday.

Rah watches/warnings/advisories
None.

Synopsis... Ellis
near term... Cbl
short term... Cbl
long term... Vincent
aviation... Cbl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 98 mi56 min NNE 2.9 G 5.1 61°F 57°F1018.7 hPa

Wind History for Money Point, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rocky Mount, Rocky Mount-Wilson Regional Airport, NC8 mi75 minVar 310.00 miMostly Cloudy70°F53°F55%1017.5 hPa

Wind History from RWI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmNW5NW5N5N4N4N6N8NE9NE10NE12
G17
NE6N7NE743Calm3Calm
1 day agoS4S4S7S8S7S5S6S6S6S8S7S8SW8S6S8S6S9S6SW6SW7SW8SW7W9NE6
2 days agoCalmS5S5S4S4SE4CalmSE3S3S3CalmCalmCalmS4SW6S4S6SW9S10
G20
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SW12S7S4

Tide / Current Tables for Suffolk, Nansemond River, Virginia
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Suffolk
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:05 AM EDT     4.78 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:20 AM EDT     -0.52 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:33 PM EDT     4.43 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:32 PM EDT     -0.53 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:22 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.84.53.72.41.10.1-0.5-0.40.31.42.73.74.34.43.82.71.40.3-0.4-0.50.21.32.63.8

Tide / Current Tables for Suffolk, Virginia
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Suffolk
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:06 AM EDT     4.84 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:20 AM EDT     -0.55 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:32 PM EDT     4.53 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:33 PM EDT     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:22 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.84.63.72.51.10-0.5-0.40.31.42.73.84.44.53.82.71.40.3-0.4-0.40.21.32.63.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.