Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rocky Mount, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 5:23PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 1:47 PM EST (18:47 UTC) Moonrise 6:53AMMoonset 5:12PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ131 Alligator River- 1005 Am Est Tue Jan 16 2018
.dense fog advisory in effect until 1 pm est this afternoon...
Rest of today..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Areas of fog late this morning.
Tonight..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves a moderate chop, increasing to choppy in the afternoon. A chance of rain in the morning, then snow or rain likely in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves rough. Snow likely in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rocky Mount, NC
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location: 35.97, -77.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 161759
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
100 pm est Tue jan 16 2018

Synopsis
A strong arctic cold front will approach from the west, crossing our
region very late tonight and through Wednesday morning. High
pressure will build into the carolinas Thursday, then remain
anchored over the deep south through the weekend, leading to a
warming trend.

Near term today
As of 1010 am Tuesday...

12z gso depicts a deep SW flow over the region. This flow in
response to an upper level disturbance and associated arctic front
approaching from the west. This SW flow coupled with a dry air mass
will push temperatures this afternoon across central nc well into
the 40s, with lower 50s probable across the southern counties.

Mostly sunny skies this morning will giveway to increase mid-high
level cloudiness from the southwest later this afternoon into this
evening.

Short term tonight through Wednesday night
As of 237 am Tuesday...

Winter weather advisory all of central north carolina 1100 pm
tonight through 7 pm Wednesday for snow...

regardless of the "milder" afternoon, a lingering, very dry
boundary layer associated with the departing arctic high pressure
will set the stage for snow after midnight in the west, spreading
late tonight and early Wednesday.

Moderate to high confidence in 1-3 inches of snow for much of central
nc later tonight through Wednesday.

Models continue to converge on a snow event for much of central north
carolina tonight and Wednesday. A widespread 1 to 2 inches of snow is
expected, with some locally 3 inch totals over the north-central and
northeast piedmont and northern coastal plain. This snow is fairly an
atypical snow event for our region as it will be generated by a
mid upper system with a departing arctic high. Typically, for
accumulating snow to occur with these typically moisture starved
systems, the mid-level vorticity maximum must track just to our south
and east. This appears that it is the case this time, with the models
in good agreement. This will maximize the little moisture available
with strong lift to produce precipitation.

Given the dynamics and the expected evaporative cooling, it should be
a situation that brings efficient snow accumulations, even with low
qpf (0.1 to 0.3 of an inch now forecast). Snow liquid ratios are
forecast to be 10-1 at onset, becoming 15-20 to 1 with strong
cooling aloft and at the surface as the precipitation ends
Wednesday. Ground temperatures will be cold enough too as the
precipitation will start in the west at night, and in the east by
around daybreak.

As far as precipitation type (p-type), the models agree in snow as
being the dominate type, with a very brief period of light rain at
the onset in the se. Even with highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s
today (the very dry and chilly boundary layer will evaporatively
cool quickly with the onset of precipitation in the west later
tonight. Partials in the 1000 850 and 850 700 strongly support this
scenario. The temperatures will quickly wet bulb to below freezing
(20s).

The area that may get more light rain at onset is in the SE coastal
plain at precipitation onset Wednesday morning. This region is
forecast to have a dew point recovery to near 32, with temperatures
forecast in the mid 30s at onset (12z to 15z wed). It may take a few
hours of light rain for the precip to transition to snow in these
areas. However, light snow is then expected as the mid level cool
rapidly with the system moving overhead (dynamic cooling).

The timing of snow in the west is between 100 and 400 am into the
western piedmont, and between 400 am and 700 am in the central, and
700 am and 1000 am in the east. A window of accumulating snow should
last around 6 hours in most areas ending from west (noon or so nw)
and elsewhere mid to late afternoon.

Temperatures should begin warmest as the precipitation starts. So,
highs for the calendar day should end up being before the snow hits
Wednesday. Temperatures should start in the mid to upper 30s tonight
with thickening and lowering clouds. Temperatures (according to wet
bulb forecasts etc... ) should cool into the 20s during the evening.

Readings may recover a degree or two in the yadkin valley (far west)
as skies clear mid to late afternoon. However, the arctic air will
be pouring in on increasing NW winds, so do not expect anything more
than possibly 28 or 30 in the triad around 300 or 400 pm, before
falling quickly again by sunset. Readings in the triangle may not
recover from the mid 20s during the event wed. Afternoon, before
falling into the teens at night.

In the SE coastal plain Wednesday, expect any light rain to quickly
change to snow between 12 and 15z. Then snow is likely through the
day, ending by late afternoon. Highs in the upper 30s at onset,
falling quickly into the lower 30s during the day. So, an advisory
for 1-2 inches is needed all the way through the interstate 95
corridor again.

Alternate scenarios include the potential for lower qpf, as these
systems are often moisture starved. The snow accumulation forecast
uses the most likely outcome when examining all available data.

There is a 20-30 percent chance of lower snow totals, but 1 inch
appears to be the low end for the triangle area, and 0.5 in the
triad, with trace to 0.1 in fayetteville and goldsboro. Conversely,
there is a chance (20 percent) of higher totals that those
officially forecast. This would be 2 to 2.5 inches in the triad, 3-4
from the triangle to halifax, and 1.5 inch in fayetteville and
goldsboro. The p-type is high confidence of snow in all but the se,
with 70 percent chance of accumulating snow in the se, after some
light rain to start.

Wednesday night... Rapidly clear skies along with the gusty NW winds
will bring wind chills into play. Actual lows should be 10- 20 NW to
se, with wind chills zero to 10.

Long term Thursday through Monday
As of 200 am Tuesday...

Thursday and Thursday night will continue to be very cold. Highs
Thursday should be only in the 30s to lower 40s. Lows Thursday night
in the teens to lower 20s. We will undercut MOS guidance by several
degrees given the very low thickness, especially NE zones.

A moderating trend will begin Friday as highs warm into the 45 to 55
range.

This warming trend will continue Saturday through Monday as the upper
level pattern "flips" from cold trough to warm ridge over the se
states.

Lows will moderate into the 20s Friday, 30s Saturday, and mid 30s to
lower 40s Sunday and Monday. Highs will warm into the 50s Saturday,
then mostly 60-65 Sunday and Monday!

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
As of 100 pm Tuesday...

there is a high likelihood thatVFR parameters will persist across
central nc until 03z Wednesday. After 03z, an approaching arctic
cold front will get closer to central nc and cause areas of precip
to develop. This precip falling through the dry sub cloud layer will
initially evaporate before reaching the surface but will aid to
lower ceilings into the MVFR category after 06z Wed in the triad,
and between 09z-13z elsewhere across central nc. The precipitation
will initially start out as rain but will quickly change over to
snow. The snow will pick-up in intensity across the west after 09z,
and across the east after 12z, with visibilities 1-2sm common. The
snow will taper off over the western piedmont after 15z, and by
early-mid afternoon across the eastern counties. Sfc winds will be
light and variable through 10z, then increase out of the north with
gusts 18-23kts probable.

Aviation conditions will improve west-to-east late Wednesday and
Wednesday night as a drier colder air mass overspreads the region.

Vfr parameters expected Wednesday night through Sunday.

Rah watches warnings advisories
Winter weather advisory from 11 pm this evening to 7 pm est Wednesday
for ncz007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

Synopsis... Wss
near term... Wss
short term... Badgett bsd
long term... Bsd
aviation... Wss


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 98 mi48 min NNW 4.1 G 6 37°F 37°F1029.5 hPa (-2.5)

Wind History for Money Point, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rocky Mount, Rocky Mount-Wilson Regional Airport, NC8 mi55 minN 010.00 miFair45°F19°F35%1029.8 hPa

Wind History from RWI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6NW4NW8N6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNE8
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N12NE7NE7N6N7N8N8NE9N7N8N7N8N9N11N7N7N8N8N9N8NW5N5
2 days agoNW10N12NW12N9N9N6NE8NE6N10N10NE13N12N15N16
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Tide / Current Tables for Suffolk, Nansemond River, Virginia
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Suffolk
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:45 AM EST     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:49 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:18 AM EST     3.92 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:29 PM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:05 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:14 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tue -- 10:29 PM EST     3.18 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.21.30.5-0.1-0.20.10.91.82.83.53.93.83.22.31.30.4-0.1-0.10.41.122.73.13.1

Tide / Current Tables for Suffolk, Virginia
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Suffolk
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:44 AM EST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:49 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:17 AM EST     3.97 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:35 PM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:05 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:14 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tue -- 10:32 PM EST     3.23 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.21.30.5-0.1-0.20.20.91.92.93.63.93.83.32.41.40.50-00.41.122.73.23.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.