Monday, September25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rocky Mount, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 7:03PM Monday September 25, 2017 8:21 PM EDT (00:21 UTC) Moonrise 11:03AMMoonset 9:40PM Illumination 28% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ131 Alligator River- 700 Pm Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
.tropical storm warning in effect...
Tonight..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves rough. A chance of showers.
Tue..Tropical storm conditions possible. NE winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves rough, increasing to very rough in the afternoon. A chance of showers.
Tue night..Tropical storm conditions expected. N winds 25 to 30 kt, increasing to 30 to 35 kt after midnight. Waves very rough, increasing to extremely rough after midnight. A chance of showers.
Wed..Tropical storm conditions expected. N winds 30 to 35 kt, diminishing to 25 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves extremely rough, diminishing to very rough in the afternoon. A chance of showers.
Wed night..Tropical storm conditions possible. N winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves rough, diminishing to choppy after midnight. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves choppy.
Thu night..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop in the afternoon.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Sat night..NE winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rocky Mount, NC
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location: 35.97, -77.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 260003 aaa
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
803 pm edt Mon sep 25 2017

Synopsis
High pressure over much of the eastern states will keep things
mainly dry and very warm in central north carolina through Thursday.

Maria is forecast to move northward across the western atlantic,
parallel to the SE coast, through midweek then make a quick turn out
to sea on Thursday.

Near term through tonight
As of 130 pm Monday...

latest satellite pictures showing high clouds continuing to stream
into the area early this afternoon in association with maria, which
is located well off the southeast coast. Meanwhile, surface high
pressure extends from the northeast into the local area. This will
yield a continuation of rain-free conditions, though it will be
partly to mostly cloudy for much of the time. The pressure gradient
between the high to our north and maria will also begin to tighten,
producing wind gusts up to 20 mph.

Low level moisture will increase tonight across the area, especially
eastern portions of the area as maria slowly lifts northward
offshore of the carolinas. This will allow for some low stratus to
spread eastward into central nc, though generally dry conditions are
expected to continue.

Short term Tuesday and Tuesday night
As of 130 pm Monday...

maria is expected to slowly lift northward and remain a couple
hundred miles off the nc coast. Thus, central nc will remain well
west of the track of the hurricane. Most locations across the area
will remain dry, with only a few light showers associated with some
weakening outer bands possible Tuesday-Tuesday night across the far
eastern coastal plain counties. The main impacts will be mostly
cloudy to overcast skies and some breezy conditions, with gusts up
to 30 mph mainly across the coastal plain and eastern sandhills.

High temps are expected to be in the lower to mid 80s and lows in
the upper 60s to near 70.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
As of 310 pm Monday...

unseasonably warm and dry conditions will occur through the first
half of the extended, followed by a return to more seasonable
temperatures by the weekend.

Tropical cyclone maria will make its closest approach to the nc
coast Wednesday and Wednesday night, though still a couple hundred
miles offshore. The difference in pressure between maria and high
pressure anchored over the new england will result in a steady
northerly sfc wind over central nc wed, with sustained winds 9-13
mph, and gusts 20-25 mph confined mostly to the far northeast
piedmont and northern coastal plain. The long NE low level fetch
will pull atlantic moisture into the NE third of central nc,
resulting in variably cloudy skies. Elsewhere, skies will vary
between partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Afternoon temperatures will
run 7-10 degrees above normal for late september, reaching well into
the 80s across the north, and near 90-lower 90s across the south.

While well above normal, these projected high temperatures will be
just shy of record highs for september 27th.

The threat for showers still appears to be minimal as best low level
convergence and deeper moisture will reside well to our east-ne.

Have confined the slight chance pop to an area along and east of a
wilson-roanoke rapids line.

Thursday into Friday, a S W crossing from the great lakes into new
england will propel a cold front sewd toward central nc Thursday,
passing overhead late thu-thu evening. Moisture limited with this
feature and convergence anemic; so will maintain a dry frontal
passage at this time. The approach of this weather feature will
cause maria to turn to the NE and accelerate away from the u.S.

Coast. Prior to frontal passage, expect another unseasonably warm
afternoon with temperatures back into the upper 80s-lower 90s.

Notably cooler air mass will filter into central nc by Friday as
afternoon temperatures will be 7-10 degrees cooler compared to
Thursday.

Another S W will cross southern new england northern mid atlantic
Saturday, propelling another sfc front sewd across central nc. This
front will reinforce the dry air mass already in place. Forcing
associated with the S W may result in a scattered broken stratocu
deck, primarily north and east of raleigh on Saturday, though
moisture appears too shallow to support any showers. The cooling
trend will continue Saturday with high temperatures 75-80.

Canadian high pressure will build into our region Sunday into
Monday, maintaining dry and seasonable conditions. Afternoon
temperatures in the mid-upper 70s, with morning lows generally 50-55
with upper 40s probable in the normally colder locations.

.Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
as of 800 pm Monday...

24 hour TAF period:VFR conditions to start out the TAF period will
fall to MVFR and then ifr at eastern TAF sites overnight as lower
clouds move in from the east with hurricane maria moving closer to
the nc coast. Restrictions should be limited to low ceilings but
there is some indication from models of at least MVFR visibilities
at krdu and kgso prior to ceilings moving it. Low confidence in this
scenario at this time but it is possible. Wind gusts of up to 20 kts
and possibly the occasional higher gust will begin in the east after
sunrise. This activity should continue through the end of the taf
period.

Outlook: showers and wind gusts associated with hurricane maria will
continue at eastern TAF sites through Wednesday with a return toVFR
conditions for the end of the week.

Climate
Record high temperatures across central nc for september 27th and
28th
record MAX (9 27) record MAX (9 28)
rdu 94 1998 95 1998
gso 90 2007 92 1939
fay 94 1986 95 1933

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Franklin
near term... Bsd franklin
short term... Bsd franklin
long term... Wss
aviation... Ellis
climate... Rah


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 98 mi52 min NE 7 G 12 78°F1013.9 hPa

Wind History for Money Point, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rocky Mount, Rocky Mount-Wilson Regional Airport, NC8 mi29 minNE 710.00 miFair74°F68°F82%1013.1 hPa

Wind History from RWI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7NE5NE5NE5CalmNE5CalmNE4NE5NE5NE6N8NE8NE8NE8NE11NE9NE12NE7NE11N8NE11
G18
NE6NE7
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmN4N8N7NE6N9NE9N10NE11NE4NE3NE4NE5
2 days agoNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N4NE4NE5N9N11NE8NE5E5NE3NE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Suffolk, Nansemond River, Virginia
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Suffolk
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:31 AM EDT     3.85 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:31 AM EDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:59 PM EDT     4.32 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:15 PM EDT     0.91 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.73.43.83.83.42.71.91.20.80.71.21.92.83.64.14.34.13.52.71.91.30.911.5

Tide / Current Tables for Suffolk, Virginia
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Suffolk
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:35 AM EDT     4.01 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:31 AM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:59 PM EDT     4.50 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:22 PM EDT     1.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.83.53.943.62.921.30.80.81.222.93.74.34.54.33.72.92.11.411.11.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.