Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rocky Mount, NC
May 6, 2024 4:17 PM EDT (20:17 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:11 AM Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 4:07 AM Moonset 5:40 PM |
AMZ131 Alligator River- 358 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of tstms this evening. A chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the evening.
Wed - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then showers and tstms likely in the afternoon.
Thu night - SW winds around 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the evening.
Fri - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night - NW winds around 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Sat - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Sat night - SE winds around 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
AMZ100 358 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - High pressure will rebuild offshore while weak troughing continues across the eastern seaboard for the next few days, but warm moist southerly flow will lead to unsettled conditions. Drier but hotter conditions briefly expected Wednesday, before an approaching strong frontal system brings unsettled weather back to the area Thursday and Friday and potentially into the beginning of next weekend.
FXUS62 KRAH 062009 AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 409 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024
SYNOPSIS
A series of mid to upper-level disturbances will interact with an unseasonably moist airmass as they move across NC through Thursday, while sub-tropical high pressure will otherwise extend across the South Atlantic states. A cold front will move across the region on Friday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 405 PM Monday...
Continued unseasonably humid conditions, with above average chances of showers and storms --with heavy downpours and water-loaded wind gusts up to 45 mph-- will continue through tonight.
Regional satellite and radar data depict multiple MCVs stretching from, the most pronounced one along the KY/IN border, sewd and across the srn Appalachians and Carolinas. Each will continue to move generally ewd across the srn Middle Atlantic, with associated 30-40 meter 500 mb height falls over cntl NC, through tonight.
At the surface, a well-developed cold pool and outflow boundary stretched at 1945Z from near MTV to INT to SVH and was moving eastward at its leading edge at close to 30 kts. This feature should continue ewd across the nrn Piedmont with an accompanying risk of wind gusts of 30-40 mph through ~22Z, before probably weakening as it encounters rain-cooled and more-stable conditions from around HBI to RDU. The swrn flank of this boundary has slowed and nearly stalled across the srn Appalachians and Middle TN. Upstream convection may track along at boundary and move into the srn NC Piedmont this evening. A separate outflow boundary and ongoing, bowing convective cluster was moving across the ern Sandhills and srn Coastal Plain, where it will soon merge with the sea breeze and outflow convection, and a maximum in instability driven by surface temperatures in the mid 80s, through the remainder of the NC Coastal Plain.
Continued unseasonably humid and weakly unstable conditions will otherwise favor a continued slight to small chance of showers/storms overnight, and also the likely redevelopment of areas of low stratus late tonight-Tue morning. Lows will be in the 60s.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 340 PM Monday...
Tuesday and Tuesday night: Aloft, as the s/w moves east and off the mid-Atlantic coast, a brief period of omega blocking will set up as the sub-tropical ridge builds northward through the Southeast US, central Appalachians, OH Valley and western Great Lakes. To the east of the block, a low will progress eastward through Quebec and Newfoundland Tue, then out over the northern Atlantic Tue night. To the west, a large low will sit over the northern Plains as several s/w disturbances rotate around it. The eastern low progressing eastward Tue night will weaken the block, allowing a leading s/w moving through the OH Valley around the western low to push the ridge slightly eastward and suppress it southward. At the surface, a warm front will lift newd through the area early Tue, with a Piedmont trough setting up east of the mtns and strengthening through Tue night as a low develops over the southern Great Lakes.
Expect continued advection of warm, moist air into the area, with PWATS starting the day around 1.7 inches, decreasing slightly with daytime mixing, but remaining largely in the 1.4-1.6 inch range. The 12Z NAM and 12Z GFS both have MLCAPE values of about 1000-2000 J/Kg (GFS lower than the NAM) across all of central NC Tue aft/eve, with effective shear around 30 kts. The SPC has included just about all of central NC in a marginal risk for Tue. The big question will be the presence of a forcing mechanism to get storms firing. Look for showers/storms to largely form along the developing lee trough and/or differential heating boundaries if they are present. An isolated strong to severe storm is possible, with the primary threat of damaging wind gusts and possibly hail. As for temperatures, highs should top out in the mid to upper 80s, while lows in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees are expected.
Wednesday and Wednesday night: Aloft, the leading s/w will continue eastward through the Northeast US toward the eastern low, while the western low finally begins to migrate slowly eastward. A second s/w will swing through the Plains and the MS Valley Wed/Wed night. At the surface, the surface low will move slowly eastward through the Northeast US Wed and offshore Wed night. Another low will develop along the front over the southern Plains early Wed, lifting newd into the upper MS Valley through Wed eve before drifting eastward into the OH Valley Wed night. The trough over central NC will weaken and lift northward out of the area as the low move east and offshore Wed night. The frontal zone between the two lows should generally remain north of the area through Wed night, with continued swly flow over the area. Expect continued advection of warm, moist air into the area, with PWATS largely in the 1.4-1.7 inch range. The 12Z NAM and 12Z GFS both have MLCAPE values of about 1500-2500 J/Kg across all of central NC Tue aft/eve, maximized over the eastern Piedmont and Coastal Plain, with effective shear again around 30 kts. The SPC has included all of central NC in a marginal risk for Wed. The forcing mechanism will likely be the lee trough as it moves eastward through the area. An isolated strong to severe storm will once again be possible. As for temperatures, highs should be about a category higher than Tue, topping out in the upper 80s to low 90s. Lows should be in the upper 60s to low 70s.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 202 PM Monday...
Thursday/Friday: There is good consensus amongst models supporting an upper trough moving east from the Great Lakes/Midwest across the eastern seaboard Thursday into Friday. This feature will promote increasingly swly flow and deep moisture advection into the southeast with PWAT rising to 150 to 200 % of normal.
At the sfc, a weak low initially over IN/OH Thursday morning, will deepen some as it progresses east into the Mid-Atlantic through Thursday night. An associated cold front will approach the Southern Appalachians Thursday night, before passing through central NC on Friday. Given high humidity and temperatures reaching the upper 80s/lower 90s on Thursday, moderate instability is expected to develop across our area ahead of the approaching front.
Aloft, increasing mid-level height falls and associated perturbations will help to generate widespread pre-frontal showers and storms which should grow in coverage/intensity Thursday afternoon. Additionally, severe parameters including bulk-layer shear (30 to 40 kts), 0-1 km shear (15 to 25 kts), mid-level lapse rates (>7 C/km), and even helicity (200 to 300 units) will all be elevated. As such, there still appears to be a good chance for severe weather (potentially widespread) Thursday and Thursday night.
Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and isolated tornadoes would all be possible. The SPC has outlined our entire area with a 15% chance for severe storms four days in advance, increasing confidence that Thursday could be a complex severe weather day.
Depending on the eventual evolution of the cold front, some guidance does show instability forming ahead of the front as it moves through our area on Friday. As such, maintained thunder in the forecast for those south of Raleigh on Friday. Additionally, the upper trough will swing through on Friday which could generate additional showers/storms into the evening period. Highs on Friday may be a bit tricky given uncertainty wrt to the advancing cold front. For now, highlighting mid to upper 70s north to lower to mid 80s south.
Saturday through Monday: The cold front will have pushed east of the area by Saturday morning, behind which considerably drier and cooler air will filter across central NC. An additional weak perturbation aloft will pass over later Saturday which may generate a few showers across our northern areas, but overall the area should stay mostly dry. Similar conditions are expected Sunday through Monday, with dry and cooler temps in the upper 70s.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 235 PM Monday...
Patches of MVFR ceilings from earlier lower ones may linger for another hour or two but otherwise lift to VFR this afternoon.
Scattered to locally numerous showers/storms --and associated brief downpours, flight restrictions, and gusty surface winds-- will then pose the primary aviation concern through early tonight.
Continued unseasonably humid air will also favor the redevelopment of areas of IFR-MVFR stratus late tonight-Tue morning. Associated ceilings should then lift and scatter and yield to a gusty swly surface wind by ~14-16Z Tue.
Outlook: There will be a chance of mainly afternoon-evening showers and storms throughout cntl NC through Thu, then ahead of a passing cold front, mainly at FAY, on Fri.
CLIMATE
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
May 8: KGSO: 66/1938 KRDU: 68/1930 KFAY: 70/2003
May 9: KGSO: 68/2002 KRDU: 70/1936 KFAY: 71/2009
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 409 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024
SYNOPSIS
A series of mid to upper-level disturbances will interact with an unseasonably moist airmass as they move across NC through Thursday, while sub-tropical high pressure will otherwise extend across the South Atlantic states. A cold front will move across the region on Friday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 405 PM Monday...
Continued unseasonably humid conditions, with above average chances of showers and storms --with heavy downpours and water-loaded wind gusts up to 45 mph-- will continue through tonight.
Regional satellite and radar data depict multiple MCVs stretching from, the most pronounced one along the KY/IN border, sewd and across the srn Appalachians and Carolinas. Each will continue to move generally ewd across the srn Middle Atlantic, with associated 30-40 meter 500 mb height falls over cntl NC, through tonight.
At the surface, a well-developed cold pool and outflow boundary stretched at 1945Z from near MTV to INT to SVH and was moving eastward at its leading edge at close to 30 kts. This feature should continue ewd across the nrn Piedmont with an accompanying risk of wind gusts of 30-40 mph through ~22Z, before probably weakening as it encounters rain-cooled and more-stable conditions from around HBI to RDU. The swrn flank of this boundary has slowed and nearly stalled across the srn Appalachians and Middle TN. Upstream convection may track along at boundary and move into the srn NC Piedmont this evening. A separate outflow boundary and ongoing, bowing convective cluster was moving across the ern Sandhills and srn Coastal Plain, where it will soon merge with the sea breeze and outflow convection, and a maximum in instability driven by surface temperatures in the mid 80s, through the remainder of the NC Coastal Plain.
Continued unseasonably humid and weakly unstable conditions will otherwise favor a continued slight to small chance of showers/storms overnight, and also the likely redevelopment of areas of low stratus late tonight-Tue morning. Lows will be in the 60s.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 340 PM Monday...
Tuesday and Tuesday night: Aloft, as the s/w moves east and off the mid-Atlantic coast, a brief period of omega blocking will set up as the sub-tropical ridge builds northward through the Southeast US, central Appalachians, OH Valley and western Great Lakes. To the east of the block, a low will progress eastward through Quebec and Newfoundland Tue, then out over the northern Atlantic Tue night. To the west, a large low will sit over the northern Plains as several s/w disturbances rotate around it. The eastern low progressing eastward Tue night will weaken the block, allowing a leading s/w moving through the OH Valley around the western low to push the ridge slightly eastward and suppress it southward. At the surface, a warm front will lift newd through the area early Tue, with a Piedmont trough setting up east of the mtns and strengthening through Tue night as a low develops over the southern Great Lakes.
Expect continued advection of warm, moist air into the area, with PWATS starting the day around 1.7 inches, decreasing slightly with daytime mixing, but remaining largely in the 1.4-1.6 inch range. The 12Z NAM and 12Z GFS both have MLCAPE values of about 1000-2000 J/Kg (GFS lower than the NAM) across all of central NC Tue aft/eve, with effective shear around 30 kts. The SPC has included just about all of central NC in a marginal risk for Tue. The big question will be the presence of a forcing mechanism to get storms firing. Look for showers/storms to largely form along the developing lee trough and/or differential heating boundaries if they are present. An isolated strong to severe storm is possible, with the primary threat of damaging wind gusts and possibly hail. As for temperatures, highs should top out in the mid to upper 80s, while lows in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees are expected.
Wednesday and Wednesday night: Aloft, the leading s/w will continue eastward through the Northeast US toward the eastern low, while the western low finally begins to migrate slowly eastward. A second s/w will swing through the Plains and the MS Valley Wed/Wed night. At the surface, the surface low will move slowly eastward through the Northeast US Wed and offshore Wed night. Another low will develop along the front over the southern Plains early Wed, lifting newd into the upper MS Valley through Wed eve before drifting eastward into the OH Valley Wed night. The trough over central NC will weaken and lift northward out of the area as the low move east and offshore Wed night. The frontal zone between the two lows should generally remain north of the area through Wed night, with continued swly flow over the area. Expect continued advection of warm, moist air into the area, with PWATS largely in the 1.4-1.7 inch range. The 12Z NAM and 12Z GFS both have MLCAPE values of about 1500-2500 J/Kg across all of central NC Tue aft/eve, maximized over the eastern Piedmont and Coastal Plain, with effective shear again around 30 kts. The SPC has included all of central NC in a marginal risk for Wed. The forcing mechanism will likely be the lee trough as it moves eastward through the area. An isolated strong to severe storm will once again be possible. As for temperatures, highs should be about a category higher than Tue, topping out in the upper 80s to low 90s. Lows should be in the upper 60s to low 70s.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 202 PM Monday...
Thursday/Friday: There is good consensus amongst models supporting an upper trough moving east from the Great Lakes/Midwest across the eastern seaboard Thursday into Friday. This feature will promote increasingly swly flow and deep moisture advection into the southeast with PWAT rising to 150 to 200 % of normal.
At the sfc, a weak low initially over IN/OH Thursday morning, will deepen some as it progresses east into the Mid-Atlantic through Thursday night. An associated cold front will approach the Southern Appalachians Thursday night, before passing through central NC on Friday. Given high humidity and temperatures reaching the upper 80s/lower 90s on Thursday, moderate instability is expected to develop across our area ahead of the approaching front.
Aloft, increasing mid-level height falls and associated perturbations will help to generate widespread pre-frontal showers and storms which should grow in coverage/intensity Thursday afternoon. Additionally, severe parameters including bulk-layer shear (30 to 40 kts), 0-1 km shear (15 to 25 kts), mid-level lapse rates (>7 C/km), and even helicity (200 to 300 units) will all be elevated. As such, there still appears to be a good chance for severe weather (potentially widespread) Thursday and Thursday night.
Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and isolated tornadoes would all be possible. The SPC has outlined our entire area with a 15% chance for severe storms four days in advance, increasing confidence that Thursday could be a complex severe weather day.
Depending on the eventual evolution of the cold front, some guidance does show instability forming ahead of the front as it moves through our area on Friday. As such, maintained thunder in the forecast for those south of Raleigh on Friday. Additionally, the upper trough will swing through on Friday which could generate additional showers/storms into the evening period. Highs on Friday may be a bit tricky given uncertainty wrt to the advancing cold front. For now, highlighting mid to upper 70s north to lower to mid 80s south.
Saturday through Monday: The cold front will have pushed east of the area by Saturday morning, behind which considerably drier and cooler air will filter across central NC. An additional weak perturbation aloft will pass over later Saturday which may generate a few showers across our northern areas, but overall the area should stay mostly dry. Similar conditions are expected Sunday through Monday, with dry and cooler temps in the upper 70s.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 235 PM Monday...
Patches of MVFR ceilings from earlier lower ones may linger for another hour or two but otherwise lift to VFR this afternoon.
Scattered to locally numerous showers/storms --and associated brief downpours, flight restrictions, and gusty surface winds-- will then pose the primary aviation concern through early tonight.
Continued unseasonably humid air will also favor the redevelopment of areas of IFR-MVFR stratus late tonight-Tue morning. Associated ceilings should then lift and scatter and yield to a gusty swly surface wind by ~14-16Z Tue.
Outlook: There will be a chance of mainly afternoon-evening showers and storms throughout cntl NC through Thu, then ahead of a passing cold front, mainly at FAY, on Fri.
CLIMATE
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
May 8: KGSO: 66/1938 KRDU: 68/1930 KFAY: 70/2003
May 9: KGSO: 68/2002 KRDU: 70/1936 KFAY: 71/2009
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA | 98 mi | 47 min | WSW 7G | 79°F | 69°F | 29.94 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KRWI ROCKY MOUNTWILSON RGNL,NC | 8 sm | 24 min | SW 07 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 82°F | 72°F | 70% | 29.95 |
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Suffolk, Nansemond River, Virginia, Tide feet
Suffolk
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:51 AM EDT -0.36 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:01 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 06:06 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 09:59 AM EDT 4.10 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:54 PM EDT -0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:35 PM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 07:59 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 10:23 PM EDT 5.04 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:51 AM EDT -0.36 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:01 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 06:06 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 09:59 AM EDT 4.10 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:54 PM EDT -0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:35 PM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 07:59 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 10:23 PM EDT 5.04 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Suffolk, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 3.1 |
| 1 am |
| 1.9 |
| 2 am |
| 0.7 |
| 3 am |
| -0.1 |
| 4 am |
| -0.4 |
| 5 am |
| 0 |
| 6 am |
| 0.9 |
| 7 am |
| 2 |
| 8 am |
| 3.1 |
| 9 am |
| 3.8 |
| 10 am |
| 4.1 |
| 11 am |
| 3.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 3 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 0 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 3.4 |
| 9 pm |
| 4.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 5 |
| 11 pm |
| 4.9 |
Raleigh/Durham, NC,
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