Wednesday, April25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rocky Mount, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 7:54PM Wednesday April 25, 2018 2:17 PM EDT (18:17 UTC) Moonrise 2:32PMMoonset 3:07AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ131 Alligator River- 100 Pm Edt Wed Apr 25 2018
This afternoon..S winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. Scattered showers and tstms.
Tonight..W winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. Scattered showers with isolated tstms in the evening.
Thu..N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves flat, increasing to light chop in the afternoon.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A slight chance of tstms in the morning. A chance of showers.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rocky Mount, NC
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location: 35.97, -77.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 251755
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
155 pm edt Wed apr 25 2018

Synopsis
An upper level low, and related surface low pressure system, will
track northeastward across central nc and southeastern va through
this afternoon. A weak cold front will cross the region late this
afternoon and tonight. Another low pressure system will approach
from the west Thursday, and cross our area late Thursday night
and Friday.

Near term through tonight
As of 1020 am Wednesday...

little change required to the near term update.

12z upper air analysis and water vapor imagery depict a well defined
mature cyclone overhead. Perturbations rotating around this feature
enhancing low level convergence, triggering bands of showers,
primarily over the western piedmont this morning. Mid level lapse
rates not too shabby with the upper low as the gso sounding has 700-
500mb lapse rates around 7 deg c km. Visible satellite imagery
depicts a few breaks in the low stratus over sections of the
sandhills at mid-morning. This pocket of drier air should lift newd
into the coastal plain by mid day. This modest heating will aid to
destabilize the lower half of the atmosphere while at the same time
the cool pool aloft drifts over the eastern piedmont and coastal
plain. This available energy should result in scattered-numerous
showers and isolated t-storms this afternoon. The melting layer
about 3000ft lower today compared to Tuesday, hovering around 8500
ft. Thus, any showers storms with updrafts of appreciable
depth duration should produce small hail. The stronger updrafts
associated with the storms may be capable of producing marginally
large hail.

The caveat to the scenario above is if the low stratus remains over
the eastern counties well into the afternoon, limiting insolation
and maintaining a stable air mass, updrafts will be weaker, limiting
the hail production. Also, some near term models depict drier air
enveloping the mid-upper levels of the atmosphere by mid-late
afternoon. If this occurs, shower coverage will be no worse than
isolated-scattered.

High temperatures this afternoon dependent upon cloud shower
coverage. Still appears that partial Sun across the far south should
warm this region into the mid 70s. High temperatures become more
questionable farther to the north where thicker clouds more showers
will limit temperature recovery.

Tonight, the upper level low pressure system will weaken open up and
lift to the ne. This should lead to a drier weather and a gradual
decrease in cloud coverage. Minimum temperatures in the low-mid 50s.

Short term Thursday through Friday
As of 350 am Wednesday...

a dry backdoor cold front will briefly sag south in the wake of the
departing low as it lifts north into new england. This front will
stall across the northern tier of central nc, stalling highs in the
the upper 60s north, while the southern tier will reach mid 70s. The
front will be quickly lifted back north of the area ahead of a
vigorous southern stream closed low which will be moving east across
the southern plains into the tennessee valley Thursday night. This
low will be accompanied by a rather impressive elevated mixed layer
featuring mid level lapse rates of 6-7 k km and at least modest
upper diffluence complements of a 90kt jetlet. Showers and scattered
thunderstorms are expected to break out Thursday evening in the
western piedmont, with coverage increasing as the system lifts
northeast up the appalachians. As such, will raise pops to likely
(~60%) category and transition the pops from the western piedmont
Thursday evening into the east after midnight. Activity will quickly
taper off to scattered Friday morning as the system lifts northeast
and is absorbed into the larger scale long wave trof migrating into
the eastern conus. Should see some breaks in cloudiness on Friday
with highs reaching low to mid 70s after mild morning lows in the
mid 50s.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
As of 155 pm Wednesday...

the forecast is expected to be dry during this period, with near to
slightly below normal temperatures through Monday, moderating to
around to slightly above normal by Wednesday.

As the shortwave low moves away from the area, getting absorbed in
the longwave trough, another shortwave will swing through the deep
south gulf coast Friday night and out over the atlantic by Saturday
aft eve. Meanwhile, the parent low will swing through the great
lakes and into new england through Sunday. The longwave trough axis
will extend southward, moving over the atlantic by Sunday night. The
general northwest flow pattern and a reinforcing dry cold frontal
passage Saturday Saturday night will result in temperatures near to
slightly below normal for late april. High pressure will remain over
the region through Monday, shifting offshore Tuesday. As a result,
expect a return to more southerly flow and increasing temperatures
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Aviation 18z Wednesday through Monday
As of 125 pm Wednesday...

aviation conditions will gradually improve across central nc through
this evening. Current MVFR low endVFR ceilings will gradually lift
and dissipate through 22z, with mostly clear-partly cloudy skies
expected tonight. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue to drift to the east-northeast across the eastern piedmont
and most of the coastal plain through 22z. The heavier showers and
isolated storms will be accompanied by small hail. This hail threat
appears to be highest immediately north of the krdu and krwi
terminals.

MostlyVFR parameters expected later tonight through Thursday.

Another low pressure system will affect central nc Thursday night
into Friday with MVFR ceilings and scattered-numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms. The convective coverage appears to be
highest late Thursday evening through early Friday morning.

A cold front will cross central nc Friday afternoon. A drier and a
more stable air mass will overspread the region, leading toVFR
parameters through the weekend and into early next week.

Rah watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Synopsis... Wss mws
near term... Wss
short term... Mlm
long term... Kc
aviation... Wss


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 98 mi48 min W 8 G 12 70°F 60°F1005 hPa

Wind History for Money Point, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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SE16
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E9
G14
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G11
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G9
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G16
SE14
G18
SE12
G16

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rocky Mount, Rocky Mount-Wilson Regional Airport, NC8 mi25 minWSW 710.00 miOvercast67°F59°F76%1006.2 hPa

Wind History from RWI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E5CalmE5E3E43443SE4CalmS4SE3S4S4S3S3SW4SW5S3S7SW8SW7
1 day agoE11
G22
SE9
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6E7E7E7E7NE76E53E766
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E85
2 days ago3Calm--3SE443SE34CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE5NE4Calm5E56
G19
E8
G17
E10
G15
SE10
G20
E8
G18

Tide / Current Tables for Suffolk, Nansemond River, Virginia
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Suffolk
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:19 AM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:47 AM EDT     4.12 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:56 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:16 PM EDT     4.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.20.30.81.72.63.444.13.8321.10.40.10.41.12.133.84.143.42.5

Tide / Current Tables for Suffolk, Virginia
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Suffolk
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:24 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:50 AM EDT     4.06 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:02 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:20 PM EDT     4.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.20.20.71.52.53.33.94.13.732.11.10.40.10.311.92.93.6443.42.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.