Tuesday, August21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rocky Mount, NC

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Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 7:54PM Tuesday August 21, 2018 8:18 AM EDT (12:18 UTC) Moonrise 3:51PMMoonset 1:15AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ131 Alligator River- 711 Am Edt Tue Aug 21 2018
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt late. Waves light chop, increasing to a moderate chop late. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tonight..SW winds around 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..N winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..NE winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rocky Mount, NC
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location: 35.97, -77.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 211209
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
809 am edt Tue aug 21 2018

Synopsis
A front will remain quasi-stationary over northern nc this morning.

The front will then retreat northward across the middle atlantic
states today, ahead of an upper level trough that will sweep
eastward across our region tonight. A strong cold front will usher
unseasonably cool high pressure east of the appalachians late
Wednesday night and Thursday.

Near term through tonight
As of 400 am Tuesday...

earlier convection has diminished, though near term guidance
suggests an upstream vort MAX in SW flow aloft may trigger scattered
showers as it shears newd and interacts this morning with a low
level frontal zone over cntl NRN nc. That front will otherwise remain
quasi-stationary until morning overcast primarily along and N of the
boundary lifts scatters, and any showers that develop move out,
thereby allowing the boundary to retreat nwd into va by midday. The
growing warm sector over cntl nc will favor warming temperatures
mainly into the mid-upr 80s.

There may then be a lull in convective activity for a good portion
of the afternoon, given the nwd retreat of the low level frontal
zone out of cntl nc, and lack of additional triggering mechanisms
until late this afternoon into the early nighttime hours, when
strengthening 850 theta-e advection and forcing for ascent preceding
an approaching mid-upr level trough overspread cntl nc. This forcing
will support the ewd maintenance of a broken band or two of showers
and storms across cntl nc during that time, with the most favorable
diurnal timing over the NW piedmont, where cam solutions suggest the
convection may arrive as early as 21-22z. Severe potential will
consequently be maximized there, with a primary threat of damaging
wind gusts. Nocturnal cooling should otherwise support a general
weakening trend as the convection spreads east across the remainder
of cntl nc through the mid to late evening hours, with low
temperatures in the upr 60s to lwr-mid 70s.

Short term Wednesday and Wednesday night
As of 310 am Tuesday...

in the wake of the S W passage Tuesday night, the upper level trough
will pivot through nc Wednesday into Thursday. Meanwhile, the
piedmont trough will linger across the region through late
morning early afternoon Wednesday, pushing eastward offshore as the
cold front pushes into and through central nc late Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Depending on the timing of the fropa, some showers
or storms could develop, primarily across the east, during the
afternoon. Temperatures will be determined by the front progression
as well, but for now expect highs in the mid 80s NW to around 90
degrees se. The cold front should move through the area entirely by
12z Thursday, with cool northerly flow and subsidence as the high
builds into the area from the west-northwest. As a result, expect
clearing and drying in the wake of the front, with lows in the low
60s NW to upper 60s SE are expected.

Long term Thursday through Monday
As of 320 am Tuesday...

high pressure at the surface will build into nc on Thursday and
Thursday night, possibly continuing to wedge southwestward into the
region as the center of the high shifts off the northeast us coast
through Saturday, possibly through Sunday as well. Aloft, weak
ridging will commence Thursday while the high remains centered well
to the southwest through Friday night and Saturday. Another upper
level low will develop and swing through the northern high plains
and midwest Friday night, swinging through the great lakes and into
new england over the weekend. The latest medium-range guidance
suggests the high may be strong enough to keep the wave from
bringing much precipitation into central nc over the weekend. As a
result, expect a primarily dry forecast through much of the extended
forecast period, though the best chances for showers storms will be
limited to the aft eve across the south and southeast over the
weekend. With the relatively cool high pressure in place, expect
much more comfortable, albeit moderating, temperatures Thursday
through Saturday. Highs around 80 degrees across the north to mid
80s across the south on Thursday will gradually increase back into
the mid to upper 80s on Sunday. Similarly, lows in the upper 50s
north and NW to mid 60s south will gradually increase back into the
mid to upper 60s by Sunday. A return to more south-southwesterly
flow Sunday night through Monday night will result in a return to
highs around 90 degrees and lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 800 am Tuesday...

(l)ifr ceilings, most pervasive in the vicinity and particularly
north of a stationary front draped across NRN nc this morning, will
gradually lift and disperse toVFR through the midday to early
afternoon hours - latest at piedmont sites. Otherwise, an
unseasonably strong and at least occasionally gusty swly surface
wind in the 10-15 kt range, with some gusts into the upr teens to
near 20 kts, will develop once the early low clouds diminish, and
the mixed layer deepens. Convective coverage is likely to be at a
minimum for much of the day, given a lack of forcing mechanisms once
the front retreats nwd into va. Thereafter, the approach of an upr
level trough will support the ewd progression of a broken band of
showers and storms across cntl nc this evening-early tonight,
perhaps as early as 21-22z at WRN sites (int gso), weakening with
time and ewd extent as they move across the remainder of cntl nc
between 02-06z.

Outlook: another round of widely scattered showers and storms will
move east across cntl nc Wed aft and eve, followed by unseasonably
cool and dry high pressure --and associated high probability ofVFR
conditions-- for the remainder of the period.

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Mws
near term... Mws
short term... Kc
long term... Kc
aviation... Mws


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 98 mi31 min S 2.9 G 5.1 77°F 83°F1016 hPa

Wind History for Money Point, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rocky Mount, Rocky Mount-Wilson Regional Airport, NC8 mi26 minS 510.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F73°F97%1017 hPa

Wind History from RWI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalm3S4353W6CalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmSE3S5SW7--SE3S3S3CalmCalmS5
1 day agoSW4SW5W6W5W4W6SW7S3SW6SW5CalmSW3CalmCalmE3SE4CalmS4SW8CalmNW4CalmW4N5
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Tide / Current Tables for Suffolk, Nansemond River, Virginia
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Suffolk
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:44 AM EDT     0.85 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:47 AM EDT     3.39 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:42 PM EDT     0.72 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:23 PM EDT     4.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.410.91.11.72.32.93.33.43.12.61.91.30.80.711.62.43.23.84.14.13.72.9

Tide / Current Tables for Suffolk, Virginia
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Suffolk
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:52 AM EDT     0.86 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:49 AM EDT     3.45 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:41 PM EDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:21 PM EDT     4.21 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.510.91.11.62.32.93.33.43.22.721.30.90.81.11.72.53.33.94.24.13.73

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.