Tuesday, May21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rocky Mount, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 8:15PM Tuesday May 21, 2019 6:32 PM EDT (22:32 UTC) Moonrise 10:07PMMoonset 7:17AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 307 Pm Edt Thu Apr 4 2019
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rocky Mount, NC
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location: 35.97, -77.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 211919
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
315 pm edt Tue may 21 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will build briefly into the region from the north
tonight and into the day on Wednesday, providing a temporary break
from the heat. Hot temperatures will return for the later half of
the work week as high pressure aloft builds over the SE u.S.

Near term tonight
As of 300 pm Tuesday...

the arrival of more prominent surface pressure rises from the north
as the surface high ridges south into the area will bring
increasingly drier and cooler air overnight for northern and central
portions of the forecast area. However across the far southern
counties, a more esely component will advect a plume of higher
dewpoints and shallow maritime layer from SE to NW overnight.

Based on model soundings, the saturated layer appears too shallow to
support any measurable precip, but cannot rule out some very patchy
drizzle across the far southern southwestern zones. This
maritime stratus layer will also result in a rather sharp NE to sw
temperature gradient across the area overnight. Lows ranging from
lower mid 50s NE to mid upper 60s south.

Short term Wednesday and Wednesday night
As of 300 pm Tuesday...

surface high pressure centered over the region Wednesday morning
will move off the mid-atlantic coast during the afternoon. Meanwhile
the upper ridge over the deep south and southeast will continue to
amplify with it's axis drifting toward the carolinas.

The evolution of the morning stratus layer extending SE to NW from
the southern coastal plain sandhills region up into the western
piedmont will make for a challenging temperature forecast on
Wednesday. Aided by a sely upslope component east of the mountains,
some of the hi-resolution model guidance suggest that these low
clouds, especially across the western piedmont, could linger well
into the afternoon. The 12 km NAM is especially keen into holding
onto low clouds ceilings through late in the diurnal cycle, keeping
afternoon temps down into the lower 70s. While not quite ready to go
that bold, have lowered afternoon highs down into the mid to upper
70s across the NW piedmont. Otherwise, highs in the lower 80s.

Additionally, nearby stalled frontal zone across upstate sc will
setup a nice tmb and instability axis in proximity to our southern
piedmont counties which could allow for the development of a few
diurnally driven showers.

Sely low-level return around the offshore sfc high could allow for
the re-development or possibly continuation of low clouds stratus
across the western piedmont Wednesday night.

Lows ranging from upper 50s near 60 across the NE to mid 60s
southwest.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
As of 315 pm Tuesday...

confidence is fairly high that this period will be hotter and drier
than what is typical for late may, but it's not a guarantee that
everyone will necessarily stay dry. Large and strong mid level high
pressure will continue to dominate the gulf states and southeast
states, but with a couple bouts of breakdown on its north NE side
resulting from strong shortwaves crossing the great lakes, st
lawrence valley, northeast, and canadian maritimes. The first of
these is on Thu thu night, when the ridge axis gets briefly
suppressed to the ssw with steering flow over nc increasing out of
the nw. Mcvs from upstream organized convection may sweep across va
and NE nc, although models aren't in good agreement on the degree of
moisture present, with the GFS fv3 much wetter than the NAM ecmwf
families Thu into Thu night. Will maintain small chance pops across
the far N and NE CWA for now. As this initial trough moves out over
the NW atlantic, ridging aloft builds back in Fri into sun, and dry
conditions should again dominate. The next ridge breakdown comes
late Sun through Mon night, when energy ejecting from the strong
west coast low combines with deepening low pressure over SE canada
to tamp down heights aloft. Mid level perturbations tracking along a
surface frontal zone beneath strengthening mid level NW flow from
the ohio valley across the mid atlantic will bring our next chance
of showers storms, again primarily across the N and E cwa, where the
frontal zone may dip into central nc. But once again the
availability of deep moisture is in question, and deep layer shear
will be rather weak, so it's far from a slam dunk that any mcvs will
track into or over our area. Will hold onto low chance pops, mainly
across the ne, for Sun evening through Mon night. Ridging aloft
builds back in for tue, so dry conditions are expected. Thicknesses
will generally be 20-25 m above normal each day, although some
relative cooling-down is possible in the NE Tue into Wed if the
front does indeed drop into the area. After a modestly warm day thu
(upper 80s-lower 90s), highs will be solidly in the 90s Fri through
mon, with Sun looking like the hottest day. Hot temps should hold
over the SW tue, but NE sections should "cool off" into the upper
80s for highs. -gih

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
As of 157 pm Tuesday...

drier air advecting into the area in the wake of the cold front
settling south of the area will supportVFR conditions through the
evening. There is increasing confidence that increasing esely
onshore low-level flow late this evening and overnight will support
the development of mostly MVFR ceilings across fay, gso, and int
overnight, with the potential for sub-vfr ceilings to linger well
into the afternoon on Wednesday. Confidence is lowest at rdu, where
models keep the stratus low clouds just south southwest of the area.

So for now, will keep conditions through the period. At krwi, closer
to the dry air ridge axis, confidence is fairly high than conditions
will remainVFR through the forecast period.

After 18z wed... Sub-vfr ceilings at kgso, kint and kfay could lift
to low endVFR during the mid to late afternoon on Wednesday.

Another round of ceiling and visibility restrictions will be
possible Wednesday night early Thursday morning. Otherwise, strong
upper level ridging will result in predominatelyVFR parameters
through the weekend.

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Np
near term... Cbl
short term... Cbl
long term... Hartfield
aviation... Cbl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 98 mi39 min NE 5.1 G 11 73°F 76°F1015.8 hPa

Wind History for Money Point, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rocky Mount, Rocky Mount-Wilson Regional Airport, NC8 mi40 minN 710.00 miFair86°F55°F35%1014.2 hPa
Tarboro-Edgecombe Airport, NC15 mi53 minNNE 510.00 miFair85°F56°F38%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from RWI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S8S5S6CalmS4S5SW5SW4SW6SW5CalmCalmCalmNW5N6N7NW85N93N5N5NW6
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2 days ago--CalmCalmCalmE4SE4CalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S10S9SW7S10SW9S10
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Tide / Current Tables for Suffolk, Virginia
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Suffolk
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:02 AM EDT     4.62 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:24 AM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:27 PM EDT     3.74 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:17 PM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.34.64.43.62.51.40.4-0.1-00.51.42.43.23.73.73.12.31.30.50.10.20.81.72.7

Tide / Current Tables for Hollidays Point (bridge), Virginia
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Hollidays Point (bridge)
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:16 AM EDT     3.69 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:52 AM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:41 PM EDT     2.98 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:45 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.73.63.12.31.40.60.1-0.10.20.81.62.42.932.72.11.30.60.20.10.411.92.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.