Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 8:18 AM

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AMZ131 Alligator River- 149 Am Edt Sun Apr 28 2024
Rest of tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Sun - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves light chop, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. Sun night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Mon - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Mon night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Tue - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Wed - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves light chop, diminishing to flat in the afternoon. Wed night - NE winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. Thu - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Thu night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.

AMZ100 149 Am Edt Sun Apr 28 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - High pressure gradually builds in from the northeast, remaining in control through much of next week. Late in the period, a cold front may attempt to move through the area.

FXUS62 KRAH 280707 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 307 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will slowly drift southward off the mid-Atlantic coast today, settling off the Southeast United States tonight through Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
As of 250 AM Sunday...

Central NC will remain under the influence of a high amplitude upper level ridge through tonight. At the surface, high pressure will slide slowly south off the Carolina coast today and settle off the Southeast US coast tonight, all while ridging wwd to wnwwd into the Carolinas. An area of low pressure is expected to move eastward through the Northeast and northern mid-Atlantic today and tonight, however the attendant surface trough should remain well north of the area as the ridge dominates over central NC. Dry weather and mostly sunny skies are expected through tonight. Above normal temperatures are forecast. Highs today similar to a couple degrees higher than Sat, upper 70s to low 80s. Lows tonight will be continued mild, in mid to upper 50s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 305 AM Sunday...

The upper level ridge will slowly progress eastward to along the East Coast Mon/Mon night as a s/w moves eastward through the lower/mid MS Valley and into the TN Valley. At the surface, high pressure will remain off the Southeast US coast and continue to ridge wnwwd into the Carolinas through Mon night. The weather should remain dry through Mon night. Sunny to mostly sunny skies Mon should give way to some increasing cloudiness from the west late Mon night.
Temperatures should increase a couple/few degrees from today/tonight and remain well above normal with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the mid 50s to around 60 degrees.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 222 PM Saturday...

Monday will see continued ridging aloft while surface high pressure remains off the Southeast coast. This will yield another dry day with highs in the low to mid 80s, while lows will be mild in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Upstream from NC however, a developing southern stream trough is likely to produce showers and thunderstorms across portions of the Deep South on Monday, the remnants of which are likely to make Tuesday's forecast particularly challenging.

The trough will shift eastward Tuesday morning and is likely to cross the mountains into the Piedmont late Tuesday afternoon/evening. Warm/moist advection ahead of the trough will likely allow for MLCAPEs to climb into the 250-500 J/KG range, but there are model scenarios which also bring considerable remnant cloudiness into the area during the day which would limit the amount of instability present. Similarly, other scenarios develop convection along the mountains but show it struggling to maintain itself as it downslopes into the Piedmont. NBM guidance still suggests 20-30 PoPs across the western Piedmont, with lower values to the east, and that fits well with today's 00Z/12Z ensemble data.
Temperatures will be a challenge but even with the potential for increasing clouds throughout the day, highs should easily reach the mid 80s (possibly upper 80s in the southeast).

Weak upper ridging will follow the departing trough across the western Piedmont on Wednesday, although the upper low will be slow to move off the coast and there is the potential for at least some scattered showers across the eastern half of the forecast area during the day Wednesday. Temps remaining above normal in the mid/upper 80s.

Forecast confidence begins to decrease for the Thursday - Saturday period as an upper low ejects from the Central Rockies and broad southwesterly flow takes hold over the southeastern CONUS. A series of weak waves embedded within the flow are likely to move through the area Thursday and Friday, ahead of a sharper longwave trough axis on Saturday. Ensemble solutions with respect to rainfall timing vary quite a bit, but all generally agree that amounts will be light. 20-40 PoPs will be maintained primarily during diurnally favored time periods Thursday through Saturday, along with above normal temperatures in the low to mid 80s.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 307 AM Sunday...

24 hour TAF period: Fairly high confidence VFR conditions will prevail through the 24-hr TAF period, with the exception of a brief period of MVFR cigs possible at KINT/KGSO. Skies should be mostly clear through this morning, with just a few mid and high clouds overhead. A few/sct mid clouds may develop invof KRDU/KFAY mid-day.
Winds mainly in the 3-8 kt range overnight should increase by 2-5 kts late this morn/early aft and veer 20-40 degrees. Winds should then decrease a couple/few kts after sunset.

Outlook: Some medium-range guidance is still hinting at some moisture in the low levels invof KRWI and KFAY Mon and Tue mornings, however it does not appear saturated enough to result in any restrictions at this time. Otherwise, largely VFR conditions are expected through Tue. Generally dry weather is expected through Mon.
The next chance for showers will be diurnal convection Tue (mainly west) and Wed (mainly east.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Suffolk
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Sun -- 12:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:03 AM EDT     4.37 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:33 AM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:31 PM EDT     3.47 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:21 PM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Suffolk, Virginia, Tide feet

Petersburg
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Sun -- 12:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:08 AM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:18 AM EDT     3.51 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:17 PM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:06 PM EDT     2.92 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia, Tide feet

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