Thursday, April25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wake Forest, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 7:57PM Thursday April 25, 2019 7:42 PM EDT (23:42 UTC) Moonrise 12:20AMMoonset 10:22AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wake Forest, NC
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location: 35.97, -78.52     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 251917
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
315 pm edt Thu apr 25 2019

Synopsis
A weak surface front across virginia will lift northward as a warm
front later today. A stronger cold front will approach from the west
tonight, and cross central nc Friday, triggering numerous showers
and a few thunderstorms. High pressure will build in behind the
front on Saturday.

Near term through tonight
As of 235 pm Thursday...

the southern stream portion of the phasing full-latitude trough
approaching from the W is playing a role in maintaining convection
currently over W al into S ms la. While this convection will
steadily weaken as it heads ene, dampening in response to northern
stream energy digging into the trough base over the mid miss valley,
this initial shot of dpva and the northern portion of this precip
area still appears poised to cross central nc, necessitating chance
pops spreading in overnight. Given the in situ relatively dry air in
the lowest few km this evening, the risk for measurable precip will
remain low through midnight, but will increase w-to-e late with
deepening and strengthening SW flow and resultant increasing moist
upglide and column moistening. Improving large scale ascent toward
morning and minor uptick in forecast MLCAPE with increasingly
favorable deep layer shear may support electrification late and will
include a mention of isolated thunder, mainly w. The increasing
cloud cover, higher dewpoints, and SW breeze overnight as compared
to last night will equate to warmer lows, mainly low-mid 60s. -gih

Short term Friday and Friday night
As of 315 pm Thursday...

showers and scattered storms moving into the W CWA at the start of
this period are expected to grow upscale and strengthen as they head
e through Fri afternoon and encounter increasing diurnal
destabilization within a background of strengthening deep layer
shear. A nose of 50-60 kt mid level winds will spread in during the
afternoon, just behind a 40-45 kt SW 850 mb jet and beneath
strengthening upper divergence along and just ahead of the trough
axis. These improving kinematics in conjunction with marginal to
moderate destabilization should facilitate organization of
convection into a wavy line or bowing segments capable of producing
pockets of straight line wind damage, with a lesser risk of a weak
tornado or two. The primary threat will be in the afternoon,
decreasing by early evening as the surface cold front sweeps to our
e and brings about late-night w-to-e clearing. Highs should range
from the lower 70s nw, a minimal diurnal rise due to the clouds and
precip, ranging to the upper 70s near 80 e. With cold air advection
fri night, lows should be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Frequent
gusts to 25-30 kts are expected with SW surface winds ahead of the
front, with gustiness lingering into early evening immediately
behind the front as winds veer to W and wnw. -gih

Long term Saturday through Thursday
As of 200 pm Thursday...

quiet weather for the majority of the long term with ridging aloft
and surface high pressure building in over the deep south. This
quickly moves offshore of the ga sc coast on by Saturday night as
the upper ridge flattens out and becomes more zonal. This will leave
dry conditions with a westerly component to the winds over the
carolinas resulting in a really nice looking weekend with
temperatures Saturday afternoon in the low to mid 70s and then
climbing to the upper 70s to low 80s for Sunday as the surface winds
swing around to southwesterly. By Sunday afternoon there is a low
pressure system moving north of the area through the mid-atlantic
but it looks like most if not all of the precipitation associated
with this feature will remain north of the va border as a dry cold
front moves across the area Sunday night.

Going into early next week surface high pressure will now be
northeast of the area for Monday and thus some cooler afternoon
highs back into the low to mid 70s. It won't last long though as the
high moves out to sea and sinks southward, brining southwesterly
return flow back to the region and higher temps for Tuesday into the
low to mid 80s. For Wednesday and Thursday, moisture advection does
increase, both off the atlantic and the gulf and some slight chances
move in particularly across the north and west as a frontal zone
begins to approach the area with no real organization to it. An
afternoon shower or thunderstorm will be possible. Highs in the low
80s.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
As of 200 pm Thursday...

vfr conditions are likely to hold through at least this evening
across central nc. While mid and high clouds will continue to stream
over the area, potentially producing a few sprinkles, the low levels
will remain too dry for much wetting of the ground through sunset.

As a potent frontal system approaches from the W this evening and
tonight, clouds will thicken with lowering bases, and MVFR CIGS are
expected to rule after 08z W (int gso), after 10z central (rdu) and
after 12z E (rwi fay), although all terminals should bounce back up
toVFR by late morning. A few showers are possible mainly after
sunset tonight, but greater coverage of showers and storms, some
strong, will arrive late tonight w, continuing through 18z as storms
spread eastward. Isolated gusts up to 12-18 kts are possible this
afternoon. Winds will be light from the SW tonight, then increase by
mid morning Fri to sustained 12-18 kts gusting to 20-27 kts through
the end of the TAF valid period.

Looking beyond 18z fri, numerous to widespread showers and storms
with a good chance of MVFR conditions will be ongoing Fri afternoon,
along with brisk gusty SW winds. A wind shift to W and NW (still
brisk gusty) and clearing is expected as the cold front moves
through central nc in the late Fri afternoon and early evening.

Behind the front,VFR conditions are likely late Fri night through
sun beneath high pressure. Another front approaching from the NW may
bring a risk of sub-vfr conditions late Sun night into Mon as it
briefly stalls over the region. As this front heads back north late
mon and we get back into the warm sector, sub-vfr conditions with
stratus fog may return Mon night Tue morning. -gih

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Wss
near term... Hartfield
short term... Hartfield
long term... Ellis
aviation... Hartfield


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Franklin County Airport, NC11 mi63 minN 010.00 miFair77°F60°F57%1011.2 hPa
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC15 mi52 minS 510.00 miOvercast78°F60°F54%1010.2 hPa

Wind History from LHZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmSE3S3CalmSW4SW3S3CalmSW6SW6SW5CalmW6CalmW3SE3CalmS8SW4S8S5S4Calm
1 day agoS5S5S6SW8S11SW8SW8SW8SW5SW5SW5SW5SW5W4CalmW7W8NW6W5W9W9
G14
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2 days agoCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4SW9SW5SW5S6SW10SW7S9SW7S9S6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.