Wednesday, January23, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Wake Forest, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 5:32PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 4:44 PM EST (21:44 UTC) Moonrise 8:40PMMoonset 9:19AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wake Forest, NC
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location: 35.97, -78.52     debug

Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 232034
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
333 pm est Wed jan 23 2019

A warm front drifts north across central nc today ahead of a
stronger cold front set to introduce a period of heavy rain and
gusty winds tonight into early Thursday. Behind the front, drier and
colder weather arrives to end the week.

Near term tonight through Thursday
As of 332 pm Wednesday...

19z surface analysis shows a warm front draped SW to NE across
central nc, continuing to chug northwestward across the central
piedmont as of Wednesday afternoon. Southeast of this boundary, sfc
moisture continues to increase, allowing dewpoints to rapidly climb
into the mid 50s across the piedmont and coastal plain counties.

Northwest of this boundary, including the triad, a residual wedge of
cooler and drier conditions remains in place, however, some retreat
of the low clouds has been witnessed via the latest GOES east
imagery. Some uncertainty remains on just how far northwest this
boundary will be able to push today, although, a warming and
moistening trend is expected to continue well into the overnight
hours. This afternoon, temperatures ranged from the mid 30s (nw) to
upper-60s (se), with the true daily high temp across the NW piedmont
likely to take place just prior to the end of the climate day late
this evening.

Tonight, an amplifying shortwave trough will push west to east
across the carolinas, dragging a dynamic cold front through the
region. Ahead of this boundary, southerly flow will strengthen,
leading to breezy and mild conditions through the midnight hour. A
few synoptic showers will be possible in the warm sector, however,
coverage will be minimal through roughly 04z 12am Thursday prior to
the fronts arrival on our doorstep. As the front passes through, at
times moderate to heavy rainfall (qpf values near 1" likely) and
intermittent wind gusts (35kts - 40kts) will be prevalent, with the
precipitation likely lasting roughly 4 - 6 hours over any given
point. Arrival times: triad (06z 1am), triangle (09z 4am), i-95
corridor (12z 7am). A rumble of thunder or two will be possible
along and east of i-95 corridor, however, an utter lack in available
cape will keep this isolated to the eastern coastal plain tidewater
regions. Biggest threats with this system will be possible downed
trees and power lines due to the strong wind gusts along with
reduced visibilities on area roadways during Thursday's morning

Behind the front on Thursday evening, gradual clearing will commence
and gusty westerly northwesterly winds will filter into the region.

This will allow for little to no daytime heating, resulting in
daytime highs likely to occur prior to sunrise and the arrival
of a predominant CAA regime.

Short term Thursday night through Sunday night
As of 333 pm Wednesday...

within the broad cyclonic flow across the eastern two-thirds of the
conus, a few rather robust shortwaves will rotate through the
region, resulting in periodic mid and high level cloudiness, but
little to no precipitation east of the mountains. Downstairs,
canadian high pressure building east into the area through Saturday,
will result in chilly, below normal temps through the weekend.

The strong post-frontal CAA Thursday night will continue through the
first half of the day on Friday with some occasional gustiness of 15
to 18 kts. Highs Friday and Saturday ranging from lower 40s north to
upper 40s south, which is a solid 7 degrees below normal.

Favorable radiational conditions Friday night should allow lows to
bottom out in the lower to mid 20s. Airmass will begin to undergo
slight moderation on Sunday, with more seasonable temps expected.

Highs in the mid upper 40s north to lower 50s south. Lows in the
upper 20s to lower 30s.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 333 pm Wednesday...

a closed vortex diving south out of canada will lead to the
reloading of the broad long wave trough in place across the eastern
us late Tuesday and into Wednesday. Models have trended wetter with
the passage of the attendant cold front into the area late Tuesday
and Tuesday night. At this time, it looks like a mostly rain event,
with models still hinting at the potential for a brief change over
to some snow before ending. Will continue to monitor with minimal
to no impacts expected at this time. In advance of this reload,
rising heights aloft combined with the moderating sfc high across
the SE us will support slightly above normal temps early next week,
with cold below normal temps returning late week.

Aviation 18z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 1230 pm Wednesday...

sub-optimal aviation conditions expected over the next 24 to 36
hours as a series of fronts impact the central north carolina
terminals. Currently,VFR conditions have prevailed across the
eastern terminals while ifr lifr cats continue at kint kgso, which
remains locked into a pocket of cold air wedging south along the
blue ridge mountains. Luckily, with surface temperatures now
situated above freezing, the surface icing event has concluded at
the aforementioned terminals, however, the low CIGS and varying
vsbys will likely persist most of the afternoon and evening
(especially at kint).

Boundary layer moisture is expected to increase rapidly this
afternoon and evening as a warm front spreads northwest through the
forecast area. In response, CIGS will gradually lower as the period
continues, likely to become sub-vfr by nightfall with intermittent
ifr lifr readings likely during the overnight hours as light rain
showers and drizzle arrive. Vsbys will also become more variable, at
times becoming less that 2sm.

The primary cold front and heaviest showers will likely impact
kint kgso between 06z - 12z, krdu between 08z - 14z, and kfay krwi
between 09z - 16z. During which time, winds will likely peak, with
gusts reaching as high as 30kts at the surface while the heaviest
bands push through. Southerly winds will begin to gust before dusk
on Wednesday, before veering to more westerly northwesterly behind
the front on Thursday, with gusts likely to continue into Thursday
night. Llws will also be a concern, with gusts as strong as 50kts
possible as low as 2kft off the surface.

Vfr parameters expected across central nc Thursday afternoon into
the weekend. The exception will be a small threat for high end MVFR
ceilings in vicinity of the triad Fri morning with the passage of a
mid level shortwave, and again Sunday as another S W approaches from
the west.

Rah watches warnings advisories

Synopsis... Jjm
near term... Jjm
short term... Cbl
long term... Cbl
aviation... Jjm wss

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Franklin County Airport, NC11 mi64 minno data10.00 miPartly Cloudy63°F50°F64%1021 hPa
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC15 mi1.9 hrsS 14 G 2310.00 miOvercast64°F50°F60%1020.6 hPa

Wind History from LHZ (wind in knots)
Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.