Sunrise 6:44 AM   Sunset 8:21 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 8:44 AM

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FXUS64 KMRX 290214 AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 1014 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 1007 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Forecast is on excellent track this evening so no serious updates were made except to reduce winds in the valley. Low confidence on the wind advisory in the foothills but left it in place. High-res guidance has indicated some patchy fog late overnight in northeast Tennessee. Otherwise should be a great overnight into another warm and lovely Monday.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Key Messages:

1. Dry and warm conditions continue.

2. Another night of gusty winds in the mountains and adjacent foothills seems on tap. Gusts of 40-45 mph seems reasonable.

Discussion:

An upper trough will lift northeast from the central plains this afternoon, into the upper midwest by tomorrow afternoon and evening.
Ridging aloft will hang in there over the southeast through late tonight before height falls begin to spread east across TN tomorrow as the effects of the midwest trough begin to be seen. Overall, not a lot of change in the sensible weather locally through the short term period. We'll remain dry across the forecast area as rain holds off until the first parts of the long term period. And we should see another day of above normal temperatures tomorrow, with highs in the low 80s expected.

Admittedly, did not see the advisory level winds coming last night.
Cove Mountain gusted to around 50 mph last night, which was quite a bit more than I would have expected. I noticed high resolution guidance showing some downslope flow, but 40-50 mph winds were not expected. Given tonight is virtually a carbon copy, am inclined to hoist up another wind advisory for portions of the east TN mountains again tonight. Once the boundary layer decouples and resulting H85 flow strengthens, guidance indicates we'll see a repeat of this situation, with high resolution model output once again showing gusty winds spreading into the mountain wave-prone areas. Additional support comes in the form of the SPC HRRR output, which shows ensemble mean wind gusts of 35-40mph in those same areas, and ensemble max gusts in the 45 mph range. Certainly not a slam dunk, but given what's occurred the last two days, it seems reasonable to issue another advisory.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Key Messages:

1. Continued above normal temperatures through the upcoming week.

2. Active weather pattern to bring chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Friday through early next week.

Discussion:

The period begins Monday night with a cold front knocking on our door from the west. Showers and some thunderstorms will increase in coverage late Monday into Tuesday. SPC currently does not have us under any convective threat besides general thunderstorms, but that could change. I wouldn't rule out any storm becoming strong, however. Currently, CAPE values are much better towards the Gulf Coast. Precipitation amounts to no more than three quarters of an inch across our area. Low to mid 80 highs Monday will cool to around climatological norms Tuesday.

Much of Wednesday into Thursday should be mostly dry with surface high pressure just off the southeast coast and ridging extending up from the Gulf. As a result, highs will push into the low to mid 80's Wednesday until the week's end. Possibly upper 80's on Thursday. For many, that is approximately 10 degrees above normal for the end of April.

The end of the week and into early next week becomes a bit out of focus as a system that develops over the middle country sends a low pressure system towards the Great Lakes with an attached cold front.
Chances for precip exist much of the weekend as the system potentially stalls just to our southeast after moving through the area around Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler over the weekend.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 730 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Mainly VFR through the period with two caveats. First, potential for a few hours of MVFR at CHA around daybreak. Second, potential for fog, potentially dense, briefly at TRI before daybreak.
Clouds and fog will scatter out after 13z and return to all VFR thereafter. Medium confidence on gusty winds at CHA overnight, winds elsewhere will remain light, especially at TRI.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 83 64 77 / 0 0 70 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 83 62 76 / 0 0 40 80 Oak Ridge, TN 56 83 62 76 / 0 0 50 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 82 56 75 / 0 0 30 80

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for Blount Smoky Mountains- Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.

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