Manns Harbor, NC Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Manns Harbor, NC

May 7, 2024 5:51 AM EDT (09:51 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:03 AM   Sunset 7:59 PM
Moonrise 4:31 AM   Moonset 6:47 PM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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AMZ131 Alligator River- 316 Am Edt Tue May 7 2024

Today - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms this morning, then a chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.

Tonight - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the evening.

Wed - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.

Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.

Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the morning, then showers and tstms likely in the afternoon.

Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the evening.

Fri - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers.

Fri night - NW winds around 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers.

Sat - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.

Sat night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 316 Am Edt Tue May 7 2024

Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - High pressure will continue to strengthen offshore while weak troughing continues for the next few days, as warm moist southerly flow leads to unsettled conditions. A strong frontal system will move through Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manns Harbor, NC
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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 070749 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 349 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will continue to strengthen offshore while weak troughing continues for the next few days, as warm moist southerly flow leads to unsettled conditions. A strong frontal system will move through Friday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 3 AM Tue...Latest analysis shows high pressure anchored offshore, troughing inland and mid level shortwave moving through the Carolinas. Sct showers and iso tstms ongoing early this morning over central NC, moving towards the coastal plain, with additional activity beginning to blossom over the Gulf Stream.

Today still looks to be a conditional severe weather day across Eastern NC, with likely less coverage than yesterday, but a more favorable environment. Convection may be ongoing right along, or just off, the coast this morning associated with a weak mid-level wave moving through. Expect there to be a brief period of subsidence in its wake. Additionally, mid/upper level ridging will be approaching from the west, adding to the potential for subsidence. Strong heating of a moist boundary layer will support MLCAPE climbing as high as 1000-1500 j/kg this afternoon, while mid/upper level northwesterly flow aloft atop a southerly low- level flow will lead to an increase in deep layer shear, the 25-35kt. Overall, the environment will be more supportive of severe weather than yesterday, however, modest subsidence plus questionable low-level forcing may limit svr potential and coverage. The seabreeze will likely be the primary focus for convective initiation. If/where thunderstorms develop, there will be an increased risk of severe weather. The environment will support the potential for damaging winds and large hail with any sustained updraft. Mid-level lapse rates aren't forecast to be particularly steep, but NW flow aloft will increase the risk of rotating updrafts, subsequently increasing the potential for hail development.

With the low-level flow taking on more of a westerly component, low-level thicknesses will increase a bit and expect high temps to climb into the upper 70s/low 80s for the beaches and mid to upper 80s inland.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/
As of 3 AM Tue...Any convection that develops should weaken by late evening as the boundary layer stabilizes, and as low-level forcing weakens. Convection likely pushing off the coast by midnight. Another muggy and mild night with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As 330 AM Mon... There have been a few changes in the forecast since the previous update but the overall trend remains the same as ENC will remain unsettled into this weekend with a daily chance for showers and thunderstorms into Friday before potentially drying out on Sat. Highest risk for severe weather still looks to be on Thursday. High pressure ridging finally overspreads ENC early next week.

Wednesday and Thursday... Have made some tweaks to the forecast for Wed and Thurs with the latest data and trends in mind. Upper level zonal flow begins to overspread ENC on Wed out ahead of a positively tilted upper trough which will be located in the Upper Midwest to start the period. Within this zonal flow, guidance has come into better agreement that a weak mid level disturbance will trek across the Carolinas and then offshore Wed evening into Thurs morning. As a result, guidance has come in slightly more aggressive with PoP's for Wed and as such have increased PoP's slightly from the previous update, though POP's still remain at Chc. Severe threat does look like it has increased slightly for Wed as well with warm and moist S'rly flow keeping dewpoints generally in the upper 60s to low 70s allowing MLCAPE to build to around 1500-2500 J/kg in the afternoon. In combination with forcing from the incoming mid level shortwave trough, scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm activity is forecast to develop Wed aftn with an isolated strong to severe storm possible. The limiting factors to the severe threat will be the weak nature of the shortwave and wind shear will be weak with guidance suggesting deep layer shear values closer to 20-30 kts at most. Either way can't rule out a stronger wind gust and some hail in the strongest storms and the SPC has maintained a marginal (level 1 out of 5 risk)
for severe weather Wed.

As the shortwave pushes off the coast, any leftover shower and thunderstorm activity will quickly weaken Wed night into Thurs and push offshore. As we get into Thurs, upper level trough migrates over to the Great Lakes region while a jet streak begins to expand over the Mid-Atlantic increasing lift. At the mid levels a second and stronger mid level shortwave rounds the base of the trough and tracks over the Mid-Atlantic Thurs afternoon/evening while at the surface deepening low pressure system in the Great Lakes tracks NE'wards into the Northeast with its associated cold front nearing western NC and a prefrontal trough setting up over the Coastal Plain Thurs evening. With ample MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg over ENC in the afternoon, stronger wind shear 30-40 kts, and slightly stronger forcing, ENC will once again have another threat for scattered showers and isolated to widely scattered strong to severe tstms. Once again the main hazard within the strongest storms will be damaging winds and hail.
Given the higher risk for severe wx on Thurs ENC is in a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather Thurs afternoon and evening. Highs each day get into the low 90s inland and 80s across the OBX while lows only get down into the 60s.

Friday through early next week... Upper level troughing finally pivots out of the Great Lakes and overspread the Mid-Atlantic on Fri into Sat with the last and likely strongest mid level shortwave rounding this troughs base on Fri. This is where the biggest change in the forecast has been as at the surface, low pressure in the Northeast will continue to trek NE'wards while its associated cold front finally tracks across the region slowing as it pushes offshore. A wave of low pressure develops along this frontal boundary on Fri as well and tracks along or near the coast. The eventual track will have a major impact on whether the area sees thunder on Fri as a low track just offshore keeps us on the cool and more stable side while a low track just inland gives us a threat for additional thunderstorms on Fri. For now kept thunder in the grids for Fri afternoon and evening until we get more clarity on the eventual evolution of the forecast. Either way Friday looks to have the best shot at widespread precip. Through the weekend and into next week general troughing remains over the Eastern Seaboard before gradually ejecting out into the Canadian Maritimes. Will have one more chance at a frontal passage Sun evening into Mon before surface ridging begins to overspread ENC from the west.
Temps do cool over the weekend closer to normal.

AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 3 AM Tue...Mix of VFR and IFR across the terminals early this morning, with patchy stratus moving into the coastal plain.
Guidance indicating the chance for status is a bit lower than last night but still around a 30-50% chance for MVFR cigs late tonight, ~08-12Z, across western terminals, including PGV and ISO. Probs for IFR is much lower but do jump up to 20-40% briefly around daybreak ~10-12z. All terminals will have potential for sub-VFR through 12z this morning. Expect conditions to return to VFR near or shortly after 12z this morning. VFR expected outside of sct showers or tstms, which may impact terminals later this morning and this afternoon.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 330 AM Tue... Expecting primarily VFR conditions outside of any shower and tstm activity each afternoon Wed and Thurs with the best shot at seeing widespread sub-VFR conditions on Fri. VFR conditions then return on Sat across the CWA

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 3 AM Tue...Latest obs show SW winds 10-20 kt with seas 2-4 ft. SW/WSW winds 10-20 kt expected for most of today with seas 3-5 ft. Expect another surge 15-25 kt late this afternoon and into tonight with strengthening thermal gradient. Given how winds overachieved a bit Monday evening, went ahead with a SCA for the central and southern waters late this afternoon into tonight, with potential for a period of frequent gusts to 25 kt along with seas building to 4-6 ft. May need to be extended into the Pamlico Sound as well. Sct showers and tstms expected across the waters today.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 340 AM Mon... Not much change in the forecast overall as unsettled weather will remain in place into the end of the week promoting a daily chance at showers and thunderstorms across our waters each day. Locally enhanced winds and seas will be possible within any thunderstorm that makes its way into the area. Otherwise the background winds remain SW'rly at 10-20 kts on Wed with a few gusts up near 25 kts at times Wed aftn and evening as the thermal gradient sets up. As we get into Thursday, gradient tightens out ahead of an approaching cold front allowing winds to increase closer to 15-25 kts with gusts in excess of 20-30 kts across our waters. Strongest winds will be located across our coastal waters and larger sounds likely necessitating a SCA for Thurs across portions of ENC. As the front nears and begins to push offshore on Fri winds decrease closer to 10-15 kts and become more W'rly on Fri before becoming NW'rly and increasing slightly to 15-20 kts Fri night behind the frontal passage. NW'rly winds continue through Sat before winds return to a S'rly direction towards the end of the weekend. 3-5 ft seas along our coastal waters on Wed increase to 4-7 ft on Thurs as the winds increase with some 8 ft seas possible along the Gulf Stream waters. Seas gradually ease over the weekend as winds ease down to 2-4 ft.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154-156-158.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 19 mi51 min WSW 12G15 69°F 29.84
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 21 mi55 min 57°F2 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 26 mi51 min WSW 12G16 71°F 75°F29.88
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 28 mi51 min 65°F 62°F3 ft
44086 30 mi25 min 64°F4 ft
44095 38 mi25 min 63°F4 ft
41082 45 mi171 min WSW 7.8 67°F 63°F29.86


Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KMQI DARE COUNTY RGNL,NC 15 sm26 minWSW 0710 smClear68°F66°F94%29.86
KFFA FIRST FLIGHT,NC 17 sm26 minSW 0610 smClear68°F66°F94%29.84
KECG ELIZABETH CITY CG AIR STATION/RGNL,NC 22 sm57 minWSW 0610 smPartly Cloudy66°F64°F94%29.85
Link to 5 minute data for KMQI


Wind History from MQI
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
   
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
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Tue -- 01:26 AM EDT     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:30 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:23 AM EDT     3.48 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:23 PM EDT     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:46 PM EDT     4.36 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina, Tide feet
12
am
0.1
1
am
-0.4
2
am
-0.3
3
am
0.2
4
am
1.1
5
am
2.1
6
am
3
7
am
3.4
8
am
3.4
9
am
2.8
10
am
2
11
am
1
12
pm
0.1
1
pm
-0.3
2
pm
-0.3
3
pm
0.3
4
pm
1.3
5
pm
2.5
6
pm
3.5
7
pm
4.2
8
pm
4.3
9
pm
4
10
pm
3.1
11
pm
2


Tide / Current for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina
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Duck Pier
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Tue -- 01:32 AM EDT     -0.51 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:30 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:25 AM EDT     3.37 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:23 PM EDT     -0.56 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:46 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:50 PM EDT     4.52 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina, Tide feet
12
am
0.1
1
am
-0.4
2
am
-0.5
3
am
0
4
am
0.9
5
am
1.9
6
am
2.9
7
am
3.3
8
am
3.3
9
am
2.8
10
am
2
11
am
0.9
12
pm
-0
1
pm
-0.5
2
pm
-0.5
3
pm
0.1
4
pm
1.1
5
pm
2.4
6
pm
3.6
7
pm
4.3
8
pm
4.5
9
pm
4.2
10
pm
3.4
11
pm
2.2


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