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AMZ131 Alligator River- 351 Am Edt Sat May 4 2024
.dense fog advisory in effect until 9 am edt this morning - .
Today - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Areas of dense fog early this morning. Tonight - SE winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight. Sun - SE winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms in the afternoon. Sun night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight. Mon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Mon night - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Tue - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Tue night - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Wed - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. Wed night - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 351 Am Edt Sat May 4 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - Cold front stalled over the area where it will linger into early next week. Benign winds/seas through the weekend but shower and tstorm activity to increase. Guidance continues to suggest sea fog development across area waters through at least Saturday.

FXUS62 KMHX 040541 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 141 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will continue offshore today and into the weekend.
A slow moving cold front will linger over the area Saturday before retreating northward on Sunday. Thereafter weak troughing across the Eastern Seaboard and warm moist southerly flow will lead to unsettled conditions through early next week. Drier conditions are expected by mid week, but will lead to increasing heat and humidity as ridging builds.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
As of 10 PM Friday... Stalled front remains draped over our northern tier as of this update bringing plenty of low stratus and even some fog across the NOBX and portions of mainland Dare as of this update. As a matter of fact we currently have ongoing marine dense fog advisories going through 11PM and an SPS for fog in the NOBX including Manteo through 12AM for the threat for patchy areas of fog with visibilities of less than 1/2 mile at times. Will reevaluate later this evening to see if these need to be extended. Do think fog should lift in the next few hours, but stratus should remain through the rest of tonight. Current expectation is for stalled front to remain in place but for patchy fog and low stratus to continue to march SW'wards this evening eventually encompassing the entire forecast area as low level moisture continues to increase and a low level inversion sets up. We remain dry overall as lows get into the low to mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/
As of 300 PM Friday...Saturday will start off cloudy, low cloud cover slowly rising with the help of daytime heating. Weak cold front will remain over ENC with east/southeasterly flow expected most of the day. Stable onshore flow will limit instability development, and with drier air holding on across the area for most of the day, it is looking to be a mostly dry day with the exception of the coastal plain where some isolated shower/thunderstorm development may occur. Temperatures will remain above normal but a bit cooler than Friday with highs ranging from the upper 70s to low 80s (cooler along the coast with the onshore flow).

LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As 315 AM Fri...A weak cold front will dip southward into the Carolinas this weekend with some scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Unsettled weather will continue for the first half of next week as weak troughing lingers over the East Coast and warm moist southerly flow develops. By mid next week drier conditions will return but will be accompanied by an increase in heat and humidity.

Sunday...Winds will veer to the south Sunday as the front retreats to the north. However this will bring better moisture/instability to the area and allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop Sunday afternoon with the most widespread rain across the coastal plain. Similar temps expected with highs in the 70s to low 80s.

Monday and Tuesday...High pressure will rebuild well offshore early next week while weak troughing remains along the Eastern Seaboard. With a moist and unstable airmass in place, diurnally enhanced showers and thunderstorms will develop with the best chances again over the coastal plain. Highs will reach the upper 70s to low 80s again Monday with increasing low level thicknesses boosting Tuesday's highs into the low to mid 80s.

Wednesday and Thursday...Drier conditions are expected mid week as upper level riding builds back over the Southeast. However, increasing low level thicknesses and continued southerly flow will lead to hot and humid conditions will afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s inland, and the low to mid 80s closer to the coast. Some isolated airmass showers and thunderstorms are also possible each afternoon.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 0115 Saturday...SubVFR flight cats overnight with fog/stratus in place. At best, IFR expected inland with coastal sites experiencing VLIFR VIS and CIGs . Fog is expected to dissipate by 13Z, but subVFR CIGs will linger into at least the late morning with IFR CIGs lifting from W to E between 13-16Z and MVFR ceilings then lifting to VFR conditions by Sat afternoon. Could see an iso shower or tstm especially across ISO/PGV Sat afternoon as well but confidence is too low to include this in the TAFs.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/...
As of 315 AM Fri...Generally VFR conditions are expected through early next week, however increasingly unsettled conditions could lead to moments of sub- VFR conditions each afternoon/evening.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 1010 PM Friday... Only update since the previous one was to include a marine dense fog advisory for portions of the NOBX coastal waters and the Croatan and Roanoke Sounds as latest webcam imagery and obs have shown continued visibilities of 1 NM or less here. Will reevaluate within the next hour or so but this marine dense fog advisory may need to be extended further depending on what obs look like.

Prev Disc...MWS has been issued for Albemarle/Croatan/Roanoke sounds and the Alligator River, along with coastal waters from Duck to Oregon Inlet this evening for a quick wind shift from westerly to easterly and gusty conditions behind a back door cold front. Potential exists for infrequent gusts of 30kts between 5-8pm today for the Albemarle sound, as easterly flow results in funneling. As we get into tonight gusts will lessen to 10-15kts behind the front. Winds will remain east/southeasterly tomorrow, sustained 10 kts gusting to 15 kts.
Seas are calm today, starting to build from the north overnight into Saturday. By Saturday evening, waves will be 2-4ft for coastal waters, highest north and east of Hatteras.

Fog threat persists into the weekend for coastal waters, sounds, and rivers once again.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 315 AM Fri...Decent boating conditions are expected this weekend with slightly worsening conditions developing early next week.

Winds will come around to the south of Sunday at 5-15 kts. SW winds then develop Monday through most of next week with winds increasing to 10-20 kts. Seas will be generally 2-4 ft through Monday and then increase to 3-5 ft Tuesday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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