Tuesday, September26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manns Harbor, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 6:56PM Tuesday September 26, 2017 8:40 AM EDT (12:40 UTC) Moonrise 11:49AMMoonset 10:14PM Illumination 33% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ131 Alligator River- 553 Am Edt Tue Sep 26 2017
.tropical storm warning in effect...
Today..Tropical storm conditions possible. NE winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming N 25 to 30 kt this afternoon. Waves rough, increasing to very rough this afternoon. Patchy fog this morning. A chance of showers this morning, then showers likely this afternoon.
Tonight..Tropical storm conditions possible. N winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Waves very rough. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Wed..Tropical storm conditions possible. N winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves very rough, diminishing to rough in the afternoon. A chance of showers.
Wed night..Tropical storm conditions possible. NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves rough, diminishing to choppy after midnight. A slight chance of showers.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves choppy.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Fri night..E winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sat..E winds around 5 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves flat, increasing to light chop in the afternoon.
Sat night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manns Harbor, NC
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location: 35.98, -75.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 261144
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
744 am edt Tue sep 26 2017

Synopsis
Hurricane maria is expected to track slowly off the north
carolina coast through mid week. A cold front will cross the
area late in the week. Please see the latest official forecasts
from the national hurricane center and local NWS offices.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 730 am Tuesday... No significant changes with update.

Showers have begun to move in along coast and forecast on track.

Previous discussion
as of 330 am Tuesday... Hurricane maria about 225 miles SE of
cape hatteras and moving slowly north. Tropical storm warnings
continue for most of our eastern counties: carteret, craven,
pamlico, tyrrell, outer banks dare and hyde, mainland dare and
hyde. Please see hlsmhx for additional details.

Moist n-ne flow under lowering inversion resulting in widespread
low cloudiness across eastern nc with main band or showers
remaining just offshore. Guidance does support clouds gradually
lifting with heating during the days but generally remaining
cloudy to mostly cloudy. Models in good agreement that offshore
showers will gradually spread in along coast this morning with
additional scattered development possible inland as well, thus
increased pops to categorical for coastal sections from cape
lookout to oregon inlet and likely east of hwy 17. Kept precip
wording as just showers as atmosphere not support of tstms.

Winds expected to increase during the day due to large wind
field around maria, and sustained tropical storm force winds
likely for outer banks and downeast carteret county by late
afternoon and gusts to 40 mph possible rest of TS warning area.

Max temps from mid 70s outer banks to lower 80s inland.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Wednesday
As of 330 am Tuesday... Slowly weakening maria will make closest
approach to area overnight with forecast position about 150
miles east of CAPE hatteras early Wednesday morning. Broad wind
field expected to produce tropical storm conditions for areas
mainly along and east of columbia-new bern-cape carteret line,
with storm surge potential of 2 to 4 feet. See hls for details.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
As of 4 am tue... Long term period will feature continuing
moderate coastal impacts through mid week as maria slowly moves
north off the nc coast, then high pres builds in bringing fall-
like pleasant weather with cooler and drier conditions for late
week into the weekend.

Wednesday into Thursday... Tropical storm force winds will be
ongoing across the obx for Wednesday, with moderate coastal
impacts continuing due to the slow northward movement of maria
off the nc coast. The slow moving nature of this system will
prolong and possibly enhance the impacts that eastern nc does
receive. At this time, the greatest impacts are expected to be
associated with the large surf impacting the coast and
significant beach erosion is likely with ocean overwash probable
in typically flood-prone areas around times of high tide
through Wednesday and likely persisting into Thursday. Highway
12 along the outer banks could be greatly impacted and may
become impassable at times, especially along pea island. Coastal
flooding along the southern pamlico sound is also possible but
the degree of flooding remains dependent upon how close maria
gets before recurving out to sea. The key driver for amount of
inundation from storm surge will be the duration and magnitude
of the northerly winds across the region. The soundside of the
outer banks from buxton to ocracoke, and possibly downeast
carteret county, look to be the most vulnerable locations for
sound side flooding at this time.

Occasional rain showers will continue to pivot in from the east
affecting mainly coastal locales on Wednesday, then mainly dry
thur as maria begins her eastward movement well away from nc. It
will be quite warm with thicknesses around 1410m suggesting
highs in the mid upr 80 both Wed and thu.

Friday through Monday... Pleasant conditions expected as dry high
pres builds in from the north behind shortwave trough. Highs
expected in the 70s, with lows in the 50s interior to low 60s
coast. Could be a small threat for some coastal showers
advecting in off the atlantic by late weekend to early next
week, though will advertise no higher than 20 pop attm.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
Short term through 12z Wednesday ...

as of 730 am Tuesday... Ifr to lifr CIGS widespread inland of
coast with some lowered vsbys as well at areas with lifr cigs.

Guidance continues to indicate slow lifting of CIGS this morning
with MVFR CIGS by 15-16z. MVFR then expected to persist rest of
period but only moderate confidence for tonight as some guidance
indicates repeat of ifr CIGS again. Scattered mainly light
showers possible through period with higher chances at kewn and
koaj. North winds 10-20 kt this morning will gust up to 30 kt
this afternoon and evening.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday ...

as of 4 am tue... Main concern is gusty northerly winds 20 to 30 mph
continuing on Wednesday, though CIGS look to improve to mainly
vfr with ocnl MVFR ifr still possible ESP for kewn and koaj.

Quiet weather and good flying conditions expected thur into the
weekend as high pres will be in control with generally N to ne
winds 5-15 mph.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 730 am Tuesday... No changes with update. Latest buoy obs
show gusts to 35-40 kt over southern and central waters and
pamlico sound. Forecast on track.

Previous discussion
as of 330 am Tuesday... Tropical storm warnings remain in effect
for the coastal waters, sounds and neuse bay rivers. SCA in
effect for the pamlico pungo rivers. Building seas and
increasing winds will remain the story for the nc waters. Maria
will continue to move N through tonight and is forecast to be
150 miles east of CAPE hatteras at 8 am wed. Winds expected to
increase to tropical storm force during the day and persist
tonight. Wave models continue to be slightly overdone with 10-17
feet currently observed at buoys, but still expect heights
building to 15-20 feet late today through tonight.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday ...

as of 4 am tue... Extremely rough boating conditions continue
wed into Thu as maria very slowly moves east of nc. The storm
will accelerate eastward Thursday though high seas will
continue. Conditions improve Friday into Saturday with seas 2 to
5 ft. Indications that NE winds pick up later this weekend as a
cool front moves through and SCA conditions return with 4-6 ft
seas possible.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Tropical storm warning for ncz046-047-081-093>095-103-104.

Beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz098.

High surf advisory until 2 pm edt Wednesday for ncz098.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 2 pm edt
Wednesday for amz136.

Tropical storm warning for amz130-131-135-137-150-152-154-156-
158.

Synopsis... Jbm
near term... Jbm
short term... Jbm
long term... Tl
aviation... Jbm tl
marine... Jbm tl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 19 mi41 min NNE 26 G 30 73°F 76°F1009.8 hPa (+0.7)
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 21 mi41 min 75°F10 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 26 mi41 min NNE 18 G 24 74°F 75°F1008 hPa (+0.3)
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 28 mi36 min 74°F10 ft
44095 38 mi23 min 75°F17 ft
41062 49 mi41 min 25 G 33 74°F 1008 hPa (+0.8)

Wind History for Duck, NC
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NW7
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC15 mi56 minENE 13 G 205.00 miLight Rain73°F72°F99%1009.5 hPa
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC17 mi61 minNNE 12 G 215.00 miFog/Mist71°F71°F100%1009.1 hPa
Elizabeth City C/G Regional Airport, NC22 mi47 minNNE 15 G 233.00 miFog/Mist73°F73°F100%1011.2 hPa

Wind History from MQI (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE9NE8NE8NE9E10NE9NE12
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2 days agoCalmN4N6N7NE6NE11NE10NE8NE7NE7NE6NE5NE6NE7NE7NE6NE8E7E6E3NE4NE4NE5NE4

Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:56 AM EDT     1.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:19 PM EDT     3.54 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:51 PM EDT     1.25 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:13 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
32.82.52.11.61.211.21.52.12.73.33.53.53.22.82.21.71.31.31.41.72.12.5

Tide / Current Tables for FRF Pier, Duck, North Carolina
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FRF Pier
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:56 AM EDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:23 PM EDT     3.58 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:51 PM EDT     0.94 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:13 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
32.82.521.40.90.811.31.92.63.23.53.53.22.72.11.510.91.11.41.92.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.