Tuesday, March28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manns Harbor, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 7:25PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 5:36 PM EDT (21:36 UTC) Moonrise 6:26AMMoonset 7:11PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ131 Alligator River- 317 Pm Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw late. Waves light chop. A chance of showers and tstms this evening.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Wed night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Thu..NE winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming E after midnight. Waves light chop...diminishing to flat after midnight.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves light chop...increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Showers likely with a chance of tstms in the evening... Then showers likely after midnight.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manns Harbor, NC
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location: 35.98, -75.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 281908
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport/morehead city nc
308 pm edt Tue mar 28 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will cross the region later tonight. High pressure
will build in from the north late Wednesday into Thursday. A
warm front will move through from the southwest Friday. A cold
front will move through early Saturday. Another cold front will
approach the area early next week.

Near term /through tonight/
As of 300 pm Tuesday... Remaining showers now moving off the
coast. Areas to the west of hwy 17 have been clear for the last
few hours and many locations have risen into the upper 70s with
dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Current CAPE values look to be
between 1000 and 2000 j/kg and climbing. Some thunderstorms
have developed upstream in SW virgina and central nc. Confidence
is growing that a broken line of showers and thunderstorms, with
some storms being severe, will move into eastern nc later this
afternoon and evening.

Cold front eventually moves through overnight, with low temps
remaining mild in the upper 50s and low 60s.

Short term /Wednesday/
As of 1240 pm Tuesday... Dry weather expected for Wednesday as
high pressure ridges in from the sw. Winds will be out of the
north, and it will be a bit cooler. High temps will still reach
the low to mid 70s except for the dare county and the nobx where
the winds will blow off the still cold ocean, and temps will
only reach the low to mid 60s.

Long term /Wednesday night through Monday/
As of 230 pm Tuesday...

Wednesday night through Thursday... Ridging at the surface and
in the mid-levels will keep the region dry with a n/ne wind flow
providing slightly cooler temperatures. Seasonal temps
Wednesday night with lows generally in the mid to upper 40s. Nne
flow will keep NRN coast chilly Thursday with mid 50s rest of
the area will be in the 60s.

Thursday night through Sunday night... Moisture will start to
spread east from the mountains Thursday night with a few showers
reaching the far western CWA toward morning Friday. A deep 500
mb trough which will become negatively tilted... Coupled with
advection of deep moisture into eastern nc ahead of cold front
will lead to a rather wet Friday and have continued previous
forecasts of likely pops Friday into Friday evening. QPF totals
expected to be in the 1/2 to 1 inch range and could top an inch
in some spots. Will continue mention of thunder in the forecast
for Friday and Fri evening. Instability is not very impressive
in the latest model runs... But with negatively tilted upper
trough and plentiful moisture... A few thunderstorms will be
quite possible. Highs Friday will range from the mid 60s outer
banks to lower 70s inland. Small chc of lingering shra coast
early Sat then dry and mild rest of the weekend with high pres
crossing to the N and ridge aloft over the area. Highs Sat and
sun will range from the the upper 50s to lower 60s NE cst to
low/mid 70s sw.

Monday through tue... Another impressive SRN stream short wave
will impact the area with good cvrg of shra and a few tsra late
mon into tue. Given uncertainty of timing this far out will
keep pops in chc range but did add some tsra as area shld be in
warm sector. Highs will be in the 70s inland to 60s beaches.

Aviation /18z Tuesday through Sunday/
Short term /through 18z wed/...

as of 305 pm Tuesday... An area of weak convection currently
exists just east of the TAF sites with conditions improving to
vfr for all locations. GenerallyVFR expected this afternoon
then move convection initializing well northwest of the area
will move into the region later this evening. SW winds expected
to gust to around 15-20kt this afternoon. Depending on the
coverage and strength of these showers/storms, brief periods of
sub-vfr conditions may be possible but confidence is low as they
move into eastern nc. If these storms become severe, there is a
possibility of strong wind gusts and hail if sufficient
instability is realized. Improving conditions expected late
evening, however guidance continues to indicate we could see a
low stratocumulus deck advect into northern sections late
tonight as winds shift north. Return toVFR expected by mid
Wednesday morning.

Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...

as of 230 pm Tuesday... With ridging in place at the surface and
in the mid- levels... ExpectVFR conditions into Thursday evening.

Widespread sub-vfr conditions are likely Friday and Friday
night as numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will occur
with slow moving cold front. Improving conditions to mostlyVFR
later Saturday and Sunday with surface and mid-level ridge
again building over eastern nc.

Marine
Short term /today and tonight/...

as of 305 pm Tuesday... Sw winds now around 10-20kt are expected
to continue and strengthen a bit more later this evening. Winds
will diminish tonight after a cold front moves through, but are
expected to pick up again out of the N around 15-20 kt by
Wednesday morning. Seas are expected remain 4-6 ft across the
central and southern waters and build up to 7 ft overnight with
contribution from swell produced by a low pressure area lifting
north across the western atlantic. Will continue the SCA for
the waters south of oregon inlet.

Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...

as of 230 pm Wednesday... Nne winds will grad diminish to 10 to
15 kts most areas later Wed night into Thu as high pres builds
in from the n. Seas are expected to subside below 6 feet all
waters by early thu. Winds will veer to ese 10 to 15 kts on
backside of high Thu night with seas 3 to 5 feet. Ssw winds will
ramp up to 15 to 25 kts Fri into Fri evening ahead of a
low/cold front. These winds will lead to seas reaching 6 to 8
feet late Fri and Fri night. The cold front will push offshore
by early Sat with wnw winds 10 to 20 kts becoming more N late.

Seas will subside to 4 to 6 feet sat. High pres will build in
from the NW Sun with N to NE winds AOB 15 kts and seas mainly 3
to 5 feet... Poss some lingering 6 footers far outer central and
nrn wtrs.

Mhx watches/warnings/advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Thursday for amz152-154.

Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Thursday for amz156-158.

Synopsis... Sk/sgk
near term... Sgk
short term... Sgk
long term... Rf/ctc
aviation... Dag/rf/sgk
marine... Rf/sgk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 19 mi49 min SSW 9.9 G 12 66°F 48°F1010.3 hPa
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 21 mi37 min 50°F3 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 26 mi49 min SSW 13 G 15

Wind History for Duck, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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SE12
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G17
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G17
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G16
S8
G11
SW9
G12
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G15
SW12
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G16
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SW7
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SE7
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G12
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S8
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G11
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SW5
G8
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ago
S5
S11
G14
S12
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S11
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G13
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SW7
SW8
SW7
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W4
--
SE7
SE8
SW6
SE9
SE11
SE7
E7
SE7
G10

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC15 mi57 minSSW 610.00 miOvercast65°F60°F84%1011.5 hPa
Elizabeth City C/G Regional Airport, NC22 mi43 minSSW 1210.00 miA Few Clouds71°F60°F68%1010.5 hPa

Wind History from MQI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS11SW11S7S6SW6S7SW8SW6SW6SW4SW3SW6SW6SW5SW8SW8SW9W11
G16
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G16
W12
G21
W11W9SW8S6
1 day agoS7SE5SE6SE6SE6SE6SE4S7S7S7S3SW3CalmCalmCalmSW4SW5S7S6S7S11S13S13
G20
S14
G19
2 days agoSW19SW13SW9SW7SW4SW4SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW4S7S9S10S11
G15
S11
G15
S8

Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
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Tue -- 02:13 AM EDT     -0.74 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:25 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:16 AM EDT     3.79 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:29 PM EDT     -0.77 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:10 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:37 PM EDT     4.08 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.6-0.3-0.7-0.60.11.12.33.33.83.63.12.11-0.1-0.7-0.7-0.10.92.13.3443.62.7

Tide / Current Tables for FRF Pier, Duck, North Carolina
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FRF Pier
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:13 AM EDT     -0.56 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:25 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:20 AM EDT     3.83 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:29 PM EDT     -0.58 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:10 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:41 PM EDT     4.12 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.8-0.1-0.5-0.40.21.22.33.33.83.73.22.31.10.1-0.5-0.5012.23.344.13.72.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.