Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Manns Harbor, NC
May 3, 2024 2:27 PM EDT (18:27 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:07 AM Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 2:34 AM Moonset 1:56 PM |
AMZ131 Alligator River- 1022 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024
Rest of today - W winds around 5 kt, becoming N early this afternoon, then becoming E 10 to 15 kt late. Waves flat, increasing to light chop early this afternoon, then increasing to a moderate chop late.
Tonight - E winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop after midnight.
Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Sat night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Sun - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers.
Sun night - S winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers in the evening.
Mon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue - SW winds around 15 kt, diminishing to around 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
AMZ100 1022 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - Mostly dry backdoor cold front sags S through nern waters this afternoon before stalling over the area where it will linger into early next week. Benign winds/seas through the weekend but shower and tstorm activity to increase. Guidance continues to suggest sea fog development across area waters through at least Saturday.
Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 031425 AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1025 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will continue offshore today and into the weekend.
A slow moving cold front will dip south into North Carolina this afternoon and linger over the area Saturday before retreating northward on Sunday. Thereafter weak troughing across the Eastern Seaboard and warm moist southerly flow will lead to unsettled conditions through early next week. Drier conditions are expected by mid week, but will lead to increasing heat and humidity as ridging builds.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 1000 AM Friday...Fog has lifted this morning, with 10SM visibilities through the CWA Models seem to be underforecasting the wind gusts behind the back door cold front currently over the delmarva peninsula, with observations of 20-25kts observed in NJ and delmarva. Strengthening of the pressure gradient behind the front as it moves south into NC will likely bring wind gusts higher than what models are suggesting. Bumped winds up behind the back door cold front moving through NE portions of the CWA this evening as a result.
Also bumped high temps for OBX to the mid to upper 70s (near 80 for NOBX) with light winds allowing minimal marine influence.
With some increased moisture convergence west of the Pamlico river as the sea breeze pushes inland and encounters the back door cold front, we could see isolated sprinkles in the area of convergence this evening.
Previous Discussion
As of 0400 Friday
Fog that developed overnight lingers into mid morning, but the densest fog will begin eroding with sunrise prompting mixing of the nocturnal inversion. SPS has been issued for the fog. Ridging aloft remains in place over ECONUS and a mostly dry backdoor cold front sags S through the Nern half of the FA this afternoon. The front in conjunction with the sea/sound/river breezes will shift winds Eerly 10-15kt behind it which will bring a noticeable T drop. Afternoon seabreeze developing over Crystal Coast, unimpeded by large scale flow, will penetrate well inland through the afternoon, reaching the I95 corridor by this evening. Previous runs of the typical pessimistic guidance showed scattered showers popping up this afternoon along the boundaries pushing through the FA, but have slightly backed off.
Further, forecast soundings from the same models show quite a bit of dry air through the column. There may be enough convergence and moisture pooling just ahead of where the front and seabreeze meet late this afternoon to spark some showers, but the ridging aloft should act to suppress them. Have increased PoPs in this "convergence zone" but have kept below mentionable in forecast text products. Highs approaching 90 inland with highs along the coast limited to mid to upper 70s by cool air behind the backdoor front and/or seabreeze.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/
As of 1000 AM Friday...no major changes with this update.
Previous Discussion
As of 0400 Friday
The backdoor front stalls out over the FA tonight where it will linger through the first half of the weekend. Another round of fog and/or stratus possible overnight with winds expected to become light and var and ample moisture in the low levels. Muggy lows in the mid 60s for most.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As 315 AM Fri...A weak cold front will dip southward into the Carolinas this weekend with some scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Unsettled weather will continue for the first half of next week as weak troughing lingers over the East Coast and warm moist southerly flow develops. By mid next week drier conditions will return but will be accompanied by an increase in heat and humidity.
Saturday and Sunday...A weak front will remain over ENC Saturday with easterly flow expected most of the day. Stable onshore flow will limit instability development, and with drier air holding on across the area for most of the day, it is looking to be a mostly dry day with the exception of the coastal plain where some isolated shower/thunderstorm development may occur.
Temperatures will remain above normal but a bit cooler than Friday with highs ranging from the upper 70s to low 80s (cooler along the coast with the onshore flow).
Winds will veer to the south Sunday as the front retreats to the north. However this will bring better moisture/instability to the area and allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop Sunday afternoon with the most widespread rain across the coastal plain. Similar temps expected with highs in the 70s to low 80s.
Monday and Tuesday...High pressure will rebuild well offshore early next week while weak troughing remains along the Eastern Seaboard. With a moist and unstable airmass in place, diurnally enhanced showers and thunderstorms will develop with the best chances again over the coastal plain. Highs will reach the upper 70s to low 80s again Monday with increasing low level thicknesses boosting Tuesday's highs into the low to mid 80s.
Wednesday and Thursday...Drier conditions are expected mid week as upper level riding builds back over the Southeast. However, increasing low level thicknesses and continued southerly flow will lead to hot and humid conditions will afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s inland, and the low to mid 80s closer to the coast. Some isolated airmass showers and thunderstorms are also possible each afternoon.
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Friday Night/...
As of 0700 Friday...Mix of VFR and sub VFR flight cats early this morning due to fog. VFR returns after fog dissipates in an hr or so. VFR through the day Friday with light and variable winds which will become predominantly onshore this afternoon behind the seabreeze in the S and Eerly for Nern zones behind a dry backdoor cold front sinking S from VA. Might see FEW-SCT diurnal CU field around FL050 this afternoon ahead of the seabreeze and front. Another round of subVFR flight cats is expected tonight with potential for a fog/stratus event due to moist low levels, light and variable to calm winds, and the front which will stall over the area tonight.
LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 315 AM Fri...Generally VFR conditions are expected through early next week, however increasingly unsettled conditions could lead to moments of sub-VFR conditions each afternoon/evening.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Fri/...
As of 1000 AM Friday...Models seem to be underforecasting the wind gusts behind the back door cold front currently over the delmarva peninsula, with observations of 20-25kts observed in NJ and delmarva. Strengthening of the pressure gradient behind the front as it moves south into NC will likely bring wind gusts higher than what models are suggesting. Bumped winds up behind the back door cold front moving through NE portions of the CWA this evening as a result. MWS is likely to be issued for Albemarle/Croatan/Roanoke sounds and the Alligator River, along with coastal waters from Duck to Oregon Inlet this evening for a quick wind shift from westerly to easterly and gusty conditions behind the front. Potential exists for infrequent gusts of 30kts between 5-8pm today for the Albemarle sound, as easterly flow results in funneling. As we get into tonight winds will diminish due to a loss of heating.
Previous Discussion
As of 0400 Friday
Sub- SCA conditions through the period. Light and variable winds early become Swerly late morning 5-10kt. Mostly dry backdoor cold front sags S through the Nern waters this afternoon, shifting winds Eerly 10-15G20kt behind it. Some gusts may approach 25kt over Albemarle Sound, but not expecting SCA criteria gusts to persist. Winds become more Serly 10-15kt over Sern waters where the seabreeze circulation can be felt. Seas only 1-2 ft throughout.
Fog threat persists into the weekend for coastal waters, sounds, and rivers once again.
LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 315 AM Fri...Decent boating conditions are expected this weekend with slightly worsening conditions developing early next week.
Winds will be easterly Saturday at 5-10 kts and then come around to the south of Sunday at 5-15 kts. SW winds then develop Monday through most of next week with winds increasing to 10-20 kts.
Seas will be generally 2-4 ft through Monday and then increase to 3-5 ft Tuesday.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1025 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will continue offshore today and into the weekend.
A slow moving cold front will dip south into North Carolina this afternoon and linger over the area Saturday before retreating northward on Sunday. Thereafter weak troughing across the Eastern Seaboard and warm moist southerly flow will lead to unsettled conditions through early next week. Drier conditions are expected by mid week, but will lead to increasing heat and humidity as ridging builds.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 1000 AM Friday...Fog has lifted this morning, with 10SM visibilities through the CWA Models seem to be underforecasting the wind gusts behind the back door cold front currently over the delmarva peninsula, with observations of 20-25kts observed in NJ and delmarva. Strengthening of the pressure gradient behind the front as it moves south into NC will likely bring wind gusts higher than what models are suggesting. Bumped winds up behind the back door cold front moving through NE portions of the CWA this evening as a result.
Also bumped high temps for OBX to the mid to upper 70s (near 80 for NOBX) with light winds allowing minimal marine influence.
With some increased moisture convergence west of the Pamlico river as the sea breeze pushes inland and encounters the back door cold front, we could see isolated sprinkles in the area of convergence this evening.
Previous Discussion
As of 0400 Friday
Fog that developed overnight lingers into mid morning, but the densest fog will begin eroding with sunrise prompting mixing of the nocturnal inversion. SPS has been issued for the fog. Ridging aloft remains in place over ECONUS and a mostly dry backdoor cold front sags S through the Nern half of the FA this afternoon. The front in conjunction with the sea/sound/river breezes will shift winds Eerly 10-15kt behind it which will bring a noticeable T drop. Afternoon seabreeze developing over Crystal Coast, unimpeded by large scale flow, will penetrate well inland through the afternoon, reaching the I95 corridor by this evening. Previous runs of the typical pessimistic guidance showed scattered showers popping up this afternoon along the boundaries pushing through the FA, but have slightly backed off.
Further, forecast soundings from the same models show quite a bit of dry air through the column. There may be enough convergence and moisture pooling just ahead of where the front and seabreeze meet late this afternoon to spark some showers, but the ridging aloft should act to suppress them. Have increased PoPs in this "convergence zone" but have kept below mentionable in forecast text products. Highs approaching 90 inland with highs along the coast limited to mid to upper 70s by cool air behind the backdoor front and/or seabreeze.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/
As of 1000 AM Friday...no major changes with this update.
Previous Discussion
As of 0400 Friday
The backdoor front stalls out over the FA tonight where it will linger through the first half of the weekend. Another round of fog and/or stratus possible overnight with winds expected to become light and var and ample moisture in the low levels. Muggy lows in the mid 60s for most.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As 315 AM Fri...A weak cold front will dip southward into the Carolinas this weekend with some scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Unsettled weather will continue for the first half of next week as weak troughing lingers over the East Coast and warm moist southerly flow develops. By mid next week drier conditions will return but will be accompanied by an increase in heat and humidity.
Saturday and Sunday...A weak front will remain over ENC Saturday with easterly flow expected most of the day. Stable onshore flow will limit instability development, and with drier air holding on across the area for most of the day, it is looking to be a mostly dry day with the exception of the coastal plain where some isolated shower/thunderstorm development may occur.
Temperatures will remain above normal but a bit cooler than Friday with highs ranging from the upper 70s to low 80s (cooler along the coast with the onshore flow).
Winds will veer to the south Sunday as the front retreats to the north. However this will bring better moisture/instability to the area and allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop Sunday afternoon with the most widespread rain across the coastal plain. Similar temps expected with highs in the 70s to low 80s.
Monday and Tuesday...High pressure will rebuild well offshore early next week while weak troughing remains along the Eastern Seaboard. With a moist and unstable airmass in place, diurnally enhanced showers and thunderstorms will develop with the best chances again over the coastal plain. Highs will reach the upper 70s to low 80s again Monday with increasing low level thicknesses boosting Tuesday's highs into the low to mid 80s.
Wednesday and Thursday...Drier conditions are expected mid week as upper level riding builds back over the Southeast. However, increasing low level thicknesses and continued southerly flow will lead to hot and humid conditions will afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s inland, and the low to mid 80s closer to the coast. Some isolated airmass showers and thunderstorms are also possible each afternoon.
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Friday Night/...
As of 0700 Friday...Mix of VFR and sub VFR flight cats early this morning due to fog. VFR returns after fog dissipates in an hr or so. VFR through the day Friday with light and variable winds which will become predominantly onshore this afternoon behind the seabreeze in the S and Eerly for Nern zones behind a dry backdoor cold front sinking S from VA. Might see FEW-SCT diurnal CU field around FL050 this afternoon ahead of the seabreeze and front. Another round of subVFR flight cats is expected tonight with potential for a fog/stratus event due to moist low levels, light and variable to calm winds, and the front which will stall over the area tonight.
LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 315 AM Fri...Generally VFR conditions are expected through early next week, however increasingly unsettled conditions could lead to moments of sub-VFR conditions each afternoon/evening.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Fri/...
As of 1000 AM Friday...Models seem to be underforecasting the wind gusts behind the back door cold front currently over the delmarva peninsula, with observations of 20-25kts observed in NJ and delmarva. Strengthening of the pressure gradient behind the front as it moves south into NC will likely bring wind gusts higher than what models are suggesting. Bumped winds up behind the back door cold front moving through NE portions of the CWA this evening as a result. MWS is likely to be issued for Albemarle/Croatan/Roanoke sounds and the Alligator River, along with coastal waters from Duck to Oregon Inlet this evening for a quick wind shift from westerly to easterly and gusty conditions behind the front. Potential exists for infrequent gusts of 30kts between 5-8pm today for the Albemarle sound, as easterly flow results in funneling. As we get into tonight winds will diminish due to a loss of heating.
Previous Discussion
As of 0400 Friday
Sub- SCA conditions through the period. Light and variable winds early become Swerly late morning 5-10kt. Mostly dry backdoor cold front sags S through the Nern waters this afternoon, shifting winds Eerly 10-15G20kt behind it. Some gusts may approach 25kt over Albemarle Sound, but not expecting SCA criteria gusts to persist. Winds become more Serly 10-15kt over Sern waters where the seabreeze circulation can be felt. Seas only 1-2 ft throughout.
Fog threat persists into the weekend for coastal waters, sounds, and rivers once again.
LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 315 AM Fri...Decent boating conditions are expected this weekend with slightly worsening conditions developing early next week.
Winds will be easterly Saturday at 5-10 kts and then come around to the south of Sunday at 5-15 kts. SW winds then develop Monday through most of next week with winds increasing to 10-20 kts.
Seas will be generally 2-4 ft through Monday and then increase to 3-5 ft Tuesday.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 | 19 mi | 70 min | SE 6G | 67°F | 30.05 | |||
| 44056 - Duck FRF, NC | 21 mi | 62 min | 64°F | 1 ft | ||||
| ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC | 26 mi | 70 min | ESE 9.9G | 69°F | 70°F | 30.09 | ||
| 44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) | 28 mi | 58 min | 66°F | 65°F | 1 ft | |||
| 44086 | 30 mi | 62 min | 65°F | 1 ft | ||||
| 44095 | 38 mi | 62 min | 65°F | 1 ft | ||||
| 41082 | 45 mi | 148 min | ESE 3.9 | 65°F | 65°F | 30.07 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMQI DARE COUNTY RGNL,NC | 15 sm | 17 min | E 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 75°F | 64°F | 69% | 30.05 | |
| KFFA FIRST FLIGHT,NC | 17 sm | 17 min | E 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 75°F | 63°F | 65% | 30.04 | |
| KECG ELIZABETH CITY CG AIR STATION/RGNL,NC | 22 sm | 33 min | E 13 | 10 sm | Clear | 82°F | 68°F | 62% | 30.03 |
Kitty Hawk (ocean)
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:33 AM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 03:37 AM EDT 3.39 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:07 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 10:00 AM EDT 0.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:54 PM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 04:12 PM EDT 3.51 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:52 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 10:33 PM EDT 0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:33 AM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 03:37 AM EDT 3.39 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:07 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 10:00 AM EDT 0.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:54 PM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 04:12 PM EDT 3.51 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:52 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 10:33 PM EDT 0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.5 |
| 1 am |
| 2.2 |
| 2 am |
| 2.9 |
| 3 am |
| 3.3 |
| 4 am |
| 3.4 |
| 5 am |
| 3.1 |
| 6 am |
| 2.4 |
| 7 am |
| 1.7 |
| 8 am |
| 1 |
| 9 am |
| 0.4 |
| 10 am |
| 0.2 |
| 11 am |
| 0.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 1 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 3.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 3.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.2 |
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
FRF Pier, Duck, North Carolina, Tide feet
Wakefield, VA,
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