Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Manns Harbor, NC
May 11, 2024 9:49 AM EDT (13:49 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:59 AM Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 7:37 AM Moonset 11:14 PM |
AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 307 Pm Edt Thu Apr 4 2019
Tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Fri night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Sat - W winds around 5 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Sun - N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night - SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
AMZ100 654 Am Edt Sat May 11 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - Another cold front will move through the waters tonight, followed by high pressure for the remainder of the weekend. Another front will come through around the middle of next week.
Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 111117 AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 717 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024
SYNOPSIS
Another cold front moves through the area tonight, followed by high pressure building into the area early next week. A low pressure system will bring unsettled weather across the area Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure builds in on Thursday but another low pressure system will impact the area late in the week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 715 AM Sat...Shortwave trough is now well offshore this morning, giving way to a weak mid-level ridge building over the mid-Atlantic. Next weather maker (albeit low impact), another well-defined shortwave, continues to dig into the Great Lakes with an attendant surface low mirroring its track. The forecast calls for it to dig further into the Great Lakes region through the short term and stall over the northeastern CONUS.
Surface trough has largely eroded, giving way to weak high pressure ridging in from the west. Cooler conditions prevail today with ongoing CAA in modest northerly flow. Big temperature differences anticipated with extensive strato-cu and cool onshore flow tempering temperatures in the 60s, but inland more breaks of sun allow highs to recover well into the 70s.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/
As of 315 AM Sat...Upper trough and low pressure to our north and west will drop a cold front across the Carolinas overnight.
A few CAMs are showing very spotty shower activity popping up thanks to pre- frontal convergence but given dry sub-cloud layers in model soundings think this will be little more than virga to spotty sprinkles, and opted to keep mentionable PoPs out of the forecast. The front will bring an uptick in low and mid-level cloud cover, and along the coast a rapid veering of winds out of the south and then west by daybreak Sunday.
Overnight lows very similar to this morning, in the low to mid 50s inland and near 60 along the coast.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 4 AM Saturday...Dry and cool weather will continue early next week as high pressure builds across the area. Unsettled weather will impact ENC on Tue/Wed as a deepening low pressure tracks across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. High pressure builds in on Thursday but another low pressure system will impact the area late in the week.
Sunday through Monday night...An upper low will push across the northern Mid-Atlantic states Sunday with an embedded shortwave pushing across the area early in the day. Guidance showing a few coastal showers early in the day but will quickly be overcome by a drying deep layer west-northwesterly downslope flow. High pressure will become centered off the Mid-Atlantic Sunday night then will migrate offshore on Monday while ridging builds aloft.
Temps will be seasonable with highs in the mid to upper 70s on Sunday and in the upper 70s/lower 80s on Monday. Dew points will be much below normal however in the mid 40s to mid 50s making for very comfortable conditions.
Tuesday through Wednesday night...Vertically stacked low pressure will track across the Ohio River Valley on Tuesday and then push across the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday before pushing off the coast Wednesday night. Precip chances increase through the day Tuesday and peak Tuesday night as upper level diffluence and southern stream moisture increases across the area with PWATs peaking around 1.75". Additional showers will push across the area Wednesday as the upper level trough and attendant sfc cold front pushes across the area. Could see a few elevated thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday night but clouds and precip will limit instability and any severe potential appears minimal.
However, Wednesday will have a better chance for stronger storms with better upper level support, colder temps aloft, and greater instability coupled with around 30-40 kt of bulk shear.
Most of the area will likely see a soaking rain with precip amounts around 1-1.5" through the period. Temps will continue to be seasonable with highs in the mid 70s to around 80 Tuesday and low to mid 80s on Wednesday.
Thursday through Friday...There is some disparity among the models with how the mid week system transitions as it moves offshore late Wednesday with most guidance opening the upper low into a wave with the system progressively moving east into the western Atlantic allowing for upper ridging to build aloft bringing a dry forecast. However, some guidance, e.g. the 00z operational ECMWF, maintains a closed low as it tracks across the Mid-Atlantic and stalls the low just off the Delmarva on Thursday keeping cyclonic flow over the area which will bring greater cloud cover with a few showers persisting across the area. Since most guidance keeps a progressive solution have kept PoPs below mentionable for Thursday at this time. Models are in better agreement with another southern stream system quickly moving into the area late in the week but once again guidance differs with how the system evolves as it pushes across the Southeast and off the coast. But despite the differences, most guidance brings another round of descent rainfall amounts across much of the area.
AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 12z Sunday/...
As of 715 AM Sat...Flight conditions remain predominantly VFR this morning across the TAF sites although EWN remains dogged by a coastal strato-cu deck that will continue to hug much of the Outer Banks through today. Band of lower stratus and a couple spotty showers earlier this morning has eroded, and now expect mainly VFR conditions through the rest of the period as high pressure builds in from the west. A weaker cold front, currently pushing across the Ohio Valley this morning, will cross the terminals later this evening but with little fanfare other than an increase in cloud cover and a very slight chance (10% or less) of a stray shower especially for terminals north of OCW.
LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 5 AM Saturday...Pred VFR conditions expected across Sunday through Monday as high pressure builds across rtes. A low pressure system will impact the area Tuesday into Wednesday with deteriorating conditions expected Tuesday with periods of sub- VFR continuing into Wednesday.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/...
As of 315 AM Sat...Small Craft conditions persist across all area waters this morning with increasing northerly flow in the wake of low pressure departing into the open Atlantic. Regional observations show widespread winds of 20-25 kt with gusts of 30+ kt, consequently building seas to a minimum of 5 feet, and as high as 7 feet north of Cape Hatteras. Winds are expected to ease through the day as weak high pressure builds over the waters from the west. By tonight, another weaker cold front will approach and cross the waters from the west, resulting in a rather rapid veering of winds to southerly by midnight and then westerly by daybreak Sunday. The westerly surge will not be as strong as this morning's but will still push winds to 15+ kt.
Local wave guidance, as expected, is not building seas quickly enough north of Hatteras. Leaned on the NBM and WNA wave models to nudge seas here closer to observations. Additionally, models now hold onto elevated seas across the central waters slightly longer than the previous forecast. Extended SCAs for these zones to 00z Sunday, but otherwise left prior headlines intact.
LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 5 AM Saturday...High pressure builds into the waters Sunday and Sunday night, then moves offshore Monday. A low pressure system will impact the waters Tuesday into Wednesday.
Sunday will see Wly winds around 15-20 kt and seas around 3-5 ft, except 2 ft near shore Onslow Bay. A backdoor front will push through Sunday night with easterly winds around 15 kt or less developing Monday with seas around 2-4 ft. Southerly winds increase Tuesday ahead of the low pressure system and expect a period of Small Craft Advisory conditions to develop and continue into Wednesday.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ135- 156-158.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150- 152-154.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 717 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024
SYNOPSIS
Another cold front moves through the area tonight, followed by high pressure building into the area early next week. A low pressure system will bring unsettled weather across the area Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure builds in on Thursday but another low pressure system will impact the area late in the week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 715 AM Sat...Shortwave trough is now well offshore this morning, giving way to a weak mid-level ridge building over the mid-Atlantic. Next weather maker (albeit low impact), another well-defined shortwave, continues to dig into the Great Lakes with an attendant surface low mirroring its track. The forecast calls for it to dig further into the Great Lakes region through the short term and stall over the northeastern CONUS.
Surface trough has largely eroded, giving way to weak high pressure ridging in from the west. Cooler conditions prevail today with ongoing CAA in modest northerly flow. Big temperature differences anticipated with extensive strato-cu and cool onshore flow tempering temperatures in the 60s, but inland more breaks of sun allow highs to recover well into the 70s.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/
As of 315 AM Sat...Upper trough and low pressure to our north and west will drop a cold front across the Carolinas overnight.
A few CAMs are showing very spotty shower activity popping up thanks to pre- frontal convergence but given dry sub-cloud layers in model soundings think this will be little more than virga to spotty sprinkles, and opted to keep mentionable PoPs out of the forecast. The front will bring an uptick in low and mid-level cloud cover, and along the coast a rapid veering of winds out of the south and then west by daybreak Sunday.
Overnight lows very similar to this morning, in the low to mid 50s inland and near 60 along the coast.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 4 AM Saturday...Dry and cool weather will continue early next week as high pressure builds across the area. Unsettled weather will impact ENC on Tue/Wed as a deepening low pressure tracks across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. High pressure builds in on Thursday but another low pressure system will impact the area late in the week.
Sunday through Monday night...An upper low will push across the northern Mid-Atlantic states Sunday with an embedded shortwave pushing across the area early in the day. Guidance showing a few coastal showers early in the day but will quickly be overcome by a drying deep layer west-northwesterly downslope flow. High pressure will become centered off the Mid-Atlantic Sunday night then will migrate offshore on Monday while ridging builds aloft.
Temps will be seasonable with highs in the mid to upper 70s on Sunday and in the upper 70s/lower 80s on Monday. Dew points will be much below normal however in the mid 40s to mid 50s making for very comfortable conditions.
Tuesday through Wednesday night...Vertically stacked low pressure will track across the Ohio River Valley on Tuesday and then push across the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday before pushing off the coast Wednesday night. Precip chances increase through the day Tuesday and peak Tuesday night as upper level diffluence and southern stream moisture increases across the area with PWATs peaking around 1.75". Additional showers will push across the area Wednesday as the upper level trough and attendant sfc cold front pushes across the area. Could see a few elevated thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday night but clouds and precip will limit instability and any severe potential appears minimal.
However, Wednesday will have a better chance for stronger storms with better upper level support, colder temps aloft, and greater instability coupled with around 30-40 kt of bulk shear.
Most of the area will likely see a soaking rain with precip amounts around 1-1.5" through the period. Temps will continue to be seasonable with highs in the mid 70s to around 80 Tuesday and low to mid 80s on Wednesday.
Thursday through Friday...There is some disparity among the models with how the mid week system transitions as it moves offshore late Wednesday with most guidance opening the upper low into a wave with the system progressively moving east into the western Atlantic allowing for upper ridging to build aloft bringing a dry forecast. However, some guidance, e.g. the 00z operational ECMWF, maintains a closed low as it tracks across the Mid-Atlantic and stalls the low just off the Delmarva on Thursday keeping cyclonic flow over the area which will bring greater cloud cover with a few showers persisting across the area. Since most guidance keeps a progressive solution have kept PoPs below mentionable for Thursday at this time. Models are in better agreement with another southern stream system quickly moving into the area late in the week but once again guidance differs with how the system evolves as it pushes across the Southeast and off the coast. But despite the differences, most guidance brings another round of descent rainfall amounts across much of the area.
AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 12z Sunday/...
As of 715 AM Sat...Flight conditions remain predominantly VFR this morning across the TAF sites although EWN remains dogged by a coastal strato-cu deck that will continue to hug much of the Outer Banks through today. Band of lower stratus and a couple spotty showers earlier this morning has eroded, and now expect mainly VFR conditions through the rest of the period as high pressure builds in from the west. A weaker cold front, currently pushing across the Ohio Valley this morning, will cross the terminals later this evening but with little fanfare other than an increase in cloud cover and a very slight chance (10% or less) of a stray shower especially for terminals north of OCW.
LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 5 AM Saturday...Pred VFR conditions expected across Sunday through Monday as high pressure builds across rtes. A low pressure system will impact the area Tuesday into Wednesday with deteriorating conditions expected Tuesday with periods of sub- VFR continuing into Wednesday.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/...
As of 315 AM Sat...Small Craft conditions persist across all area waters this morning with increasing northerly flow in the wake of low pressure departing into the open Atlantic. Regional observations show widespread winds of 20-25 kt with gusts of 30+ kt, consequently building seas to a minimum of 5 feet, and as high as 7 feet north of Cape Hatteras. Winds are expected to ease through the day as weak high pressure builds over the waters from the west. By tonight, another weaker cold front will approach and cross the waters from the west, resulting in a rather rapid veering of winds to southerly by midnight and then westerly by daybreak Sunday. The westerly surge will not be as strong as this morning's but will still push winds to 15+ kt.
Local wave guidance, as expected, is not building seas quickly enough north of Hatteras. Leaned on the NBM and WNA wave models to nudge seas here closer to observations. Additionally, models now hold onto elevated seas across the central waters slightly longer than the previous forecast. Extended SCAs for these zones to 00z Sunday, but otherwise left prior headlines intact.
LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 5 AM Saturday...High pressure builds into the waters Sunday and Sunday night, then moves offshore Monday. A low pressure system will impact the waters Tuesday into Wednesday.
Sunday will see Wly winds around 15-20 kt and seas around 3-5 ft, except 2 ft near shore Onslow Bay. A backdoor front will push through Sunday night with easterly winds around 15 kt or less developing Monday with seas around 2-4 ft. Southerly winds increase Tuesday ahead of the low pressure system and expect a period of Small Craft Advisory conditions to develop and continue into Wednesday.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ135- 156-158.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150- 152-154.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 | 19 mi | 49 min | N 15G | 54°F | 29.84 | |||
| 44056 - Duck FRF, NC | 21 mi | 53 min | 62°F | 6 ft | ||||
| ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC | 26 mi | 49 min | N 13G | 56°F | 66°F | 29.87 | ||
| 44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) | 28 mi | 49 min | 55°F | 60°F | 6 ft | |||
| 44086 | 30 mi | 53 min | 58°F | 7 ft | ||||
| 44095 | 38 mi | 53 min | 59°F | 6 ft | ||||
| 41082 | 45 mi | 169 min | N 18 | 53°F | 59°F | 29.79 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMQI DARE COUNTY RGNL,NC | 15 sm | 24 min | NNE 12G19 | 10 sm | Overcast | 57°F | 45°F | 63% | 29.85 | |
| KFFA FIRST FLIGHT,NC | 17 sm | 24 min | N 05G14 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 55°F | 45°F | 67% | 29.84 | |
| KECG ELIZABETH CITY CG AIR STATION/RGNL,NC | 22 sm | 33 min | NNE 14G20 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 59°F | 46°F | 63% | 29.85 |
Kitty Hawk (ocean)
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:45 AM EDT -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:59 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 08:35 AM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 10:37 AM EDT 3.09 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:36 PM EDT 0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:59 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 11:01 PM EDT 3.70 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:45 AM EDT -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:59 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 08:35 AM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 10:37 AM EDT 3.09 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:36 PM EDT 0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:59 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 11:01 PM EDT 3.70 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 3.3 |
| 1 am |
| 2.4 |
| 2 am |
| 1.5 |
| 3 am |
| 0.7 |
| 4 am |
| 0.1 |
| 5 am |
| 0 |
| 6 am |
| 0.3 |
| 7 am |
| 1 |
| 8 am |
| 1.8 |
| 9 am |
| 2.6 |
| 10 am |
| 3 |
| 11 am |
| 3.1 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 10 pm |
| 3.5 |
| 11 pm |
| 3.7 |
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
FRF Pier, Duck, North Carolina, Tide feet
Wakefield, VA,
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