Sunday, April23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kill Devil Hills, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 7:47PM Sunday April 23, 2017 3:43 PM EDT (19:43 UTC) Moonrise 3:41AMMoonset 3:41PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ150 S Of Currituck Beach Light To Oregon Inlet Nc Out 20 Nm- 311 Pm Edt Sun Apr 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon...
Tonight..E winds 15 to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds, increasing to 12 seconds after midnight. Showers likely. A slight chance of tstms late.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Dominant period 12 seconds. A slight chance of tstms. Showers.
Mon night..E winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft, building to 9 to 12 ft after midnight. Dominant period 7 seconds. Showers with isolated tstms.
Tue..SE winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to around 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 to 11 ft, subsiding to 6 to 9 ft in the afternoon. Dominant period 9 seconds. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms.
Tue night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Wed night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kill Devil Hills town, NC
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location: 36.02, -75.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 231710
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport/morehead city nc
110 pm edt Sun apr 23 2017

Synopsis
A stationary front will be just south of the area this afternoon
with high pressure building in from the north. The front will
move in along the coast tonight as low pressure moves into south
carolina. The low will slowly move northeast along the coast
Monday and Tuesday. High pressure in the central atlantic will
build in Wednesday through Friday.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
As of 105 pm Sunday... Latest satellite imagery and upper-air
data showing mid-level low spinning over western tennessee.

Patchy showers continue to impact our southern CWA this
afternoon with only spotty rain elsewhere. Current pops reflect
this trend and plan no changes to the forecast at this time.

Minimal risk of thunder this afternoon given surface- based
stability with strong cold-air damming in place. Lowered
afternoon maximum temperatures another degree or two as most
locales should remain in the 60s.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 am Monday/
As of 500 am Sunday... Precip threat expected to become more
widespread overnight as upper low approaching from sw, surface
low moving into sc and warm front lifting in along coast will
produce sufficient lift in moist environment to support good
coverage of showers and possible scattered tstms. Kept previous
forecast trend of pops increasing from likely this evening to
categorical overnight. Min temps ranging from mid 50s north to
mid 60s south with rising temps possible overnight along coast.

Long term /Monday through Saturday/
As of 430 am sun... Heavy rain with a flash flood threat for
swrn sections of the CWA is the main story for the extended,
then a potential late april heat wave develops.

Monday through Tuesday... This period will be more or less a
washout as strong upper level low and sfc reflection advance
towards the area. Have issued a ffa for swrn counties as this
area has best potential of receiving copious rainfall. Poor
man's ensemble of the operational 23/00z global model suite
(gfs/ecmwf/nam/cmc) all indicate best axis for deep
moisture/fgen/uvv has shifted generally west of the cwa, though
close enough to warrant the watch for the swrn zones. Have
generally tapered back rainfall totals to 2 to 4 inches, with
heaviest amounts across the respective watch area. Locally
higher amounts due to convective elements warrant the watch as
training cells are possible. Marginal threat for severe as high
shear and low CAPE will be present on Monday. Threat will be
mainly damaging winds though an iso tornado cannot be completely
ruled out.

Synoptic regime will feature strong and compact upr low that
gets closed off from the westerlies slowly pivoting through ga
on Monday then off the sc coast Monday night. At the sfc, area
of low pressure will move northward from the fl straits and
bahamas. Sfc cyclogenesis will also occur in tandem with the upr
low off the sc coast Monday night. Tropical moisture will get
entrained into the region per model layer streamlines converging
on southeastern nc. Model x-sections indicate the heaviest rain
threat would occur Monday afternoon through evening as area of
uvv moves across. Low pres moves ashore across E nc Tuesday
morning as it becomes vertically stacked with strong upr low.

This will end the heavy rain threat as deep moisture gets
shunted off to the north and east. There may even be some
pockets of sunshine on Tuesday so have raised temps a few
degrees into the mid/upr 70s. With upr low overhead though
sunshine would act to destabilize the atms with potential for
at least sct showers across the fa ESP in the afternoon and
early evening. Have maintained 40-70 pops through the day and
into Tue early eve.

Wednesday through Saturday... A building heat wave is expected
following the departure of the upr low as hts/thicknesses soar
above climo. In fact model fields indicate heights up to 2
standard deviations above normal by late in the week as massive
ridge of high pressure develops over the eastern conus. If this
verifies record high temps would certainly be threatened with
temps in the upr 80s to lower 90s. Mainly dry conditions with
only isolated threat for sea breeze convection each afternoon,
more typical of mid summer vs late april.

Aviation /17z Sunday through Thursday/
Short term /through 18z Monday/
as of 105 pm Sunday... Ifr to low-end MVFR ceilings should
prevail through the remainder of the afternoon as frontal
inversion holds in strong cold-air damming regime with low-level
northeast flow. Some lifting of ceilings may occur tonight as
warm front moves north later tonight and early Monday as
precipitation increases... But visibility will in turn drop to at
least MVFR levels. NE winds at 10-15 knots will continue tonight
then increase to 10-20 knots and gusty for Monday.

Long term /Monday through Thursday/...

as of 430 am sun... Poor flying conditions continue Monday into
Monday night as widespread rain showers and MVFR/ifr CIGS will
be prevalent ahead of a strong low pressure area. The low will
move through on Tuesday with low clouds and widespread rain
ending and a return toVFR. However sct showers will still be a
threat into Tue evening. High pressure and skc expected Wed into
thur.

Marine
Short term /through tonight/...

as of 110 pm Sunday... Winds continue nne/ne at 15-25 knots
across most of the coastal waters with seas hovering around 5 to
6 feet with higher values likely offshore. This pattern will
continue for the afternoon then winds will decrease this
evening as low pressure moves into sc. Then stalled front lifts
back in along coast overnight, producing increasing SE winds
over southern half of waters by morning. Winds will drop below
20 kt all waters this evening and seas may drop below 6 feet,
but will be short-lived and keeping SCA up for outer waters with
rough conditions persisting into Wednesday. Latest guidance
shows that gale warnings may be needed later today.

Long term /Monday through Thursday/...

as of 430 am sun... Poor boating conditions through mid week as a
strong low pressure area impacts the waters. Winds increase out
of the SE on Monday and could reach a period of gales Monday
night ahead of the low pressure area slowly moving towards the
area. Seas will build to 8-12 ft or higher late Monday and peak
Monday overnight into Tue morning. Winds diminish on Tue though
high seas will linger into Wednesday. High pres builds off the
coast with winds becoming SW late Wed through the end of the
week.

Hydrology
As of 430 am sun... Flash flood watch for swrn sections of the
cwa as this area has best chance of seeing upwards of 4 inches
of rain with locally higher amounts. Heaviest rain will occur
Monday afternoon through early Tuesday morning ahead of
advancing strong low pressure.

Mhx watches/warnings/advisories
Nc... Flash flood watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday
morning for ncz079-090>092-098.

Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz103.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for amz130-
131-135.

Small craft advisory until 2 pm edt Wednesday for amz150-152-
154-156.

Small craft advisory from 4 am Monday to 4 am edt Wednesday
for amz158.

Synopsis... Jbm
near term... Ctc
short term... Jbm
long term... Tl
aviation... Ctc/tl
marine... Ctc/jbm/tl
hydrology... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 11 mi44 min NNE 23 G 27 55°F 63°F1016.3 hPa (-1.0)
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 12 mi44 min 60°F5 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 18 mi44 min N 14 G 20 56°F 59°F1016.2 hPa (-0.6)
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 18 mi39 min 56°F6 ft
44095 27 mi56 min 56°F6 ft

Wind History for Duck, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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W10
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S12
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC2 mi49 minNNE 5 G 1410.00 miOvercast56°F52°F89%1016.6 hPa
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC7 mi49 minNE 17 G 2210.00 miOvercast56°F52°F87%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from FFA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS6N3N8
G16
N12
G20
NE7
G19
NE6N9
G14
NE6NE7N7N7
G18
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NE10
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N4
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NE4NE5NE6CalmNE10NE3N5
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1 day agoCalmCalmS3S6SW8SW7SW7SW6SW7SW8SW8
G16
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G14
SW6
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G16
SW8SW6CalmCalmSW6
G15
SW8
G17
SW5
G14
SW6W8Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW5SW4
G14
SW4CalmSW4SW8
G15
CalmW3
G18
CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:41 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:21 AM EDT     3.34 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:36 AM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:47 PM EDT     3.62 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.71.42.22.93.33.32.92.21.30.5-0-0.10.311.92.83.53.63.32.71.90.90.1

Tide / Current Tables for Jennetts Pier (ocean), North Carolina
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Jennetts Pier (ocean)
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:18 AM EDT     3.57 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:37 AM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:44 PM EDT     3.81 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.91.72.53.23.53.532.31.40.70.20.20.61.42.33.13.73.83.52.81.910.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.