Saturday, February24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kill Devil Hills, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 5:56PM Saturday February 24, 2018 12:56 PM EST (17:56 UTC) Moonrise 12:22PMMoonset 1:51AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ150 S Of Currituck Beach Light To Oregon Inlet Nc Out 20 Nm- 1010 Am Est Sat Feb 24 2018
Rest of today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds.
Sun..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Showers likely in the evening.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kill Devil Hills town, NC
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location: 36.02, -75.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 241732
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1232 pm est Sat feb 24 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will continue offshore over the weekend with
continued very warm temperatures. A cold front will move through
the area Sunday night into early Monday, followed by high
pressure Tuesday into Wednesday. Another system will impact the
area late Wednesday night into Thursday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 1010 am sat... Iso showers continue to stream northeast
along the nc coast, and have a 20 pop through the rest of the
morning for this activity. By afternoon, weak convergence along
the sea breeze will mean a transition of these iso showers to
the sea breeze zone along the hwy 17 corridor. Otherwise, dry
and warm conditions today with low stratus mixing out to a sct
strato CU deck by afternoon.

Previous discussion... As of 7 am sat... Latest sfc analysis
shows the warm front has lifted north this morning, leading to
skies clearing briefly before low clouds and patchy fog
redeveloped this morning. Low level clouds and fog will
dissipate by mid morning... Leading to sct bkn cu.

The return of warm SW flow as offshore high pressure dominates the
region. Hi-res models are showing isolated showers developing today
as an increase of moisture returns... Therefore added 20% pop
along the coastal areas, but otherwise think will be mostly dry.

Expect temperatures to increase into the mid 70s to around 80
degrees inland and lower 70s along the beaches.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Sunday
As 3 am sat... Ssw winds will prevail as offshore high pressure
continues to dominate the region. Models show good agreement
with low clouds developing with possible fog. If winds remain
light overnight... This can preclude the development of fog.

Expect overnight temperatures in the upper 50s in the NE section
to low 60s se.

Long term Sunday through Saturday
As of 340 am Saturday... A warm day on Sunday will be followed by
showers and possible a thunderstorms late Sunday and fairly
widespread rain Monday. After a couple of dry days Tuesday and
Wednesday, unsettled weather is expected for late next week as
strong low pressure impacts the area.

Sunday... Gusty southwest winds and high thickness values support
a very warm day for Sunday. Highs at some of the normally warmer
inland locations may push 85 degrees with mid 70s on the outer
banks. Some weak instability will be present during the
afternoon and given increasing moisture ahead of cold front,
will include a small chance of thunder with scattered showers
Sunday.

Sunday night through Monday night... The GFS and ECMWF continue
to show a wet period Sunday night and especially Monday across
eastern nc. QPF totals of one quarter to one half inch with
local amounts to one inch, especially inland and northern cwa
can be expected. We will be on the cold side of the boundary by
late Sunday night with maximum temperatures Monday only in the
mid 60s to lower 70s. Have pops in the likely range Sunday night
and Monday, before rapid drying kicks in at or before midnight
Monday night as strong high pressure builds in from the
northwest.

Tuesday and Wednesday... With strong dry high pressure in
control, some cooler, though above normal temperatures, expected
Tuesday into Wednesday. Highs both days will be in the low mid
60s with lows in the low mid 40s with lower 50s outer banks.

Wednesday night through Friday... A closed upper level low will
pull out of the desert southwest and move quickly east late next
week. Strong low pressure will develop and track across the
upper south into the carolinas Thursday into Friday. The GFS is
much faster with this system and actually has the strong cold
front offshore by early Friday, while the much slower ecmwf
keeps Friday wet with the front not moving offshore until later
on Friday. With so much uncertainty this far out, will include
high chance pops for Thursday and Thursday night, with a chance
pop for Friday. Temperatures will remain above normal for this
period.

Aviation 18z Saturday through Thursday
Short term through 18z Sunday ...

as of 1225 pm sat... MainlyVFR thru bulk of period. May see MVFR
cigs linger for an hour or so longer than CU shld lift and sct
a bit this aftn. Mostly clear thru the evening then may see some
low stratus develop late tonight. Not expecting much fog
tonight as unlike last few night will have decent ssw breeze all
night. Whatever low clouds develop tonight shld erode quickly
sun morn withVFR from mid morning on. Ssw winds wl gust 15 to
20 kts thru later this aftn and will likely gust AOA 20 kts mid
to late Sun morn thru the aftn.

Long term 18z Sunday through Wednesday ...

as of 350 am Saturday... Periods of sub-vfr conditions are
likely later on Sunday through the day Monday as widespread
showers occur and perhaps a TSTM or two Sunday evening. High
pressure will bring in drier air andVFR conditions for Tuesday
and Wednesday.

Marine
Short term today and tonight ...

as of 1010 am sat... Only chg was to to remove marine dense fog
adv, as fog has mixed out to lows stratus this morning.

Previous discussion... As of 7 am sat... Marine dense fog
advisory will continue through noon for the northern waters and
albemarle and discontinued over the pamlico and central waters
this morning. Overall, the latest buoy observations are showing
s SW 5-15 knots with the highest over the central waters and
seas 3-5 ft. Gradient will tighten a bit under a ssw flow
reaching 15 knots this afternoon. The gradient will continue to
tighten with the approach of the cold front, expect SW winds
15-20 kt tonight. Seas will mostly be 2-4 ft with 3-5 ft along
the central waters.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday ...

as of 350 am Saturday... No major changes to the marine forecast
thinking this morning. With gusty SW winds of 15-25 knots Sunday
and Sunday night, expect seas to build to as high as 6 feet and
a small craft advisory will be needed. Behind the front Monday,
nw N winds of 10-15 knots and seas of 3-5 feet should prevail
through midweek.

Climate
Record high temps for 02 24 (Saturday)
location temp year
new bern 84 1962 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 76 2017 (khse asos)
greenville 81 1985 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 77 1996 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 84 1930 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 86 1982 (knca asos)
record high temps for 02 25 (Sunday)
location temp year
new bern 80 2017 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 74 2017 (khse asos)
greenville 81 2017 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 76 2017 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 84 1930 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 78 2017 (knca asos)

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 7 am Sunday to 7 am est Monday for
amz152-154-156-158.

Synopsis... Bm
near term... Tl bm
short term... Bm
long term... Ctc
aviation... Rf ctc
marine... Ctc tl bm
climate... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 11 mi39 min SW 12 G 16 65°F 46°F1021.2 hPa
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 12 mi57 min 47°F3 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 18 mi72 min 47°F3 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 18 mi45 min S 15 G 17 63°F 54°F1022.3 hPa
44095 27 mi39 min 49°F3 ft
41062 37 mi57 min 9.7 G 14 53°F1023.7 hPa (-1.2)

Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC2 mi82 minSW 7 G 1410.00 miPartly Cloudy70°F68°F96%1022.3 hPa
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC7 mi82 minW 1010.00 miOvercast70°F60°F74%1023 hPa

Wind History from FFA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W11
G15
SW8
1 day agoW4W6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5
G18
N5N3N5N6N5N5N7N6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW6CalmS3S6S4S5CalmS3S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4W5SW6Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
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Sat -- 01:30 AM EST     3.44 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:51 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:39 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:08 AM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:22 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:56 PM EST     2.70 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:52 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:11 PM EST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.93.43.43.12.51.81.10.50.20.30.71.322.52.72.52.11.50.80.1-0.2-00.41.2

Tide / Current Tables for Jennetts Pier (ocean), North Carolina
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Jennetts Pier (ocean)
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:30 AM EST     3.36 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:50 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:38 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:11 AM EST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:21 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:58 PM EST     2.75 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:52 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:12 PM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.93.33.332.41.710.40.20.30.81.42.12.62.82.62.11.40.70.1-0.1-00.51.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.