Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kill Devil Hills, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 5:22PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 12:49 PM EST (17:49 UTC) Moonrise 8:28PMMoonset 9:07AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ150 S Of Currituck Beach Light To Oregon Inlet Nc Out 20 Nm- 926 Am Est Wed Jan 23 2019
.gale warning in effect from late tonight through Thursday afternoon...
Rest of today..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds.
Tonight..S winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 6 to 9 ft after midnight. Dominant period 7 seconds. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Thu..S winds 25 to 35 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Showers in the morning, then rain likely with a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kill Devil Hills town, NC
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location: 36.02, -75.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 231711
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1211 pm est Wed jan 23 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will approach from the west later tonight into
Thursday, then move offshore Thursday night. High pressure builds in
from the west by Friday into Monday. Another cold front will approach
the area early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 1210 pm Wednesday... No signif changes. Rdr shows some weak
returns near cst and have see some reports of light rain so will
cont slight pop these areas.

Prev disc... Water vapor and IR satellite show mid and high
level clouds continue to increase across the region. Some
patches of lower clouds and fog have also been observed over the
past couple of hours. Clouds will continue to thick and lower
today, but given dry low levels, little in the way of
precipitation is expected through the daylight hours today. As a
result, will keep afternoon pops low. Increased southerly flow
will lead to good warm air advection leading to much milder high
temperatures today into the low mid 60s area wide.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Thursday
As of 350 am Wednesday... Deep moist environment expected across
eastern nc as the area will be in the warm sector with enhanced
lift ahead of oncoming cold front. Low-level wind fields will be
strong with h8 winds of up to 60 knots depicted in high-
resolution models overnight. This will lead to periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall. Embedded thunderstorms are also
possible, but despite the healthy wind fields, limited
instability should keep the threat of any stronger or severe
storms low. Simulated water vapor satellite imagery from the
ecmwf shows nice plume of deep moisture moving across the
eastern carolinas late tonight early Thursday. This will lead to
some localized heavy downpours, with QPF totals likely to be
around an inch and locally up to 1.5 inches. Clouds and
precipitation should hold minimum temperatures in the mild upper
50s tonight.

Long term Thursday through Wednesday
As of 230 am wed... A cold front cross the area Thursday. Then,
drier and colder air return for Friday and the weekend. Rain
chances increase by early next week especially along the coast
as a weak system moves up the coast.

Thursday... A bevy of impacts will be possible Thursday morning
into the afternoon ahead of a cold front. Winds will be very
strong out of the ssw for the first half of the day with wind
gusts of 40-55 mph likely along the outer banks and coastal
carteret and mainland dare counties. A wind advisory has been
issued for these areas. An expansive area of prefrontal rain and
convection also appears likely, which will lead to 1"-1.5" of
rain, with the heaviest amounts along the coast. A few
thunderstorms remain are anticipated, with a few strong to even
severe storms possible, given the strong dynamics present
(including 925 mb winds in excess of 70 kts). Will maintain
categorical pops for the morning hours, and then scale back
pops to chance through the afternoon, as conditions begin to dry
behind the front. Temperatures will be very warm for most of
the day, with readings in the low to mid 60s. Temps will crash
behind the front, dropping into the low to mid 30s overnight.

Friday and Saturday... Behind this storm system a deep longwave
trough will anchor itself over the most of the CONUS centered
over the midwest and deep south. A secondary arctic cold front
will move into the region late Friday, bringing another blast
of frigid weather for the weekend. High temps on Friday will
reach the mid to upper 40s, and then low temps will fall into
the low to mid 20s inland Friday night, with low 30s expected
along the immediate shoreline. Latest model trends don't show as
strong of a cold air blast, and heights will begin building
Saturday morning, which will allow temps to rebound into the mid
to upper 40s by the afternoon.

Sunday through Tuesday... Forecast guidance has backed off of the
idea for a coastal storm in the Sunday to Monday time frame. The
latest guidance shows high pressure ridging into the area from
the SW on Sunday, and then have high pressure shifting offshore
on Monday. A weak area of low pressure is expected to track
somewhere up the east coast on Tuesday ahead of an approaching
cold front. Will now carry dry weather both Sunday and Monday,
and introduce chance pops on Tuesday. Temperatures through this
period will be milder, with highs mostly in the 50s, and
possibly upper 50s on Tuesday. Lows will be around average.

Aviation 17z Wednesday through Sunday
Short term through Thursday ...

as of 1210 pm Wednesday... Still expecting mainlyVFR thru the
night with subVFR developing near daybreak as better cvrg of
shra crosses ahead of front that will cont thru early aftn. Very
strong low lvl jet develops over region late tonight thru thu
morn and expect low lvl wind shear during this time. S winds
will gust up to 25 kt at times thru the night and poss 30 kts or
so Thu morn. Very little instab expected ahead of front so tsra
shld be limited but any that develop early Thu could have very
gusty winds.

Long term Thursday night through Sunday ...

as of 300 am wed...VFR conditions are expected to return by
Thursday evening and last through Sunday.

Marine
Short term today and tonight ...

as of 920 am Wednesday... Winds have shifted sse and will grad
increase thru the day reaching close to 20 kts late with some 6
ft seas twrd evening.

Prev disc... Generally light SE winds continue early this
morning with seas of 2-4 feet. Forecast trends continue to show
the development of a strong low-level jet tonight with h8 winds
as high as 60 knots. With high confidence, have issued a gale
warning for the coastal waters and sounds from around midnight
tonight into Thursday afternoon. Gusts as high as 45 knots will
be possible. Latest local nwps swan model shows seas as high as
10-15 feet tonight, peaking on Thursday.

Long term Thursday through Sunday ...

as of 300 am wed... Gale warnings are now in effect for all the
coastal waters and sounds, except for the inland rivers.

Strong winds are expected Thursday out of the ssw at 30-40 kts
with gusts 40-50 kts, which will allow seas to build to 12-19 ft
across the coastal waters... Largest over the central waters.

Winds turn to the NW at 15-25 kts behind the front Thursday
night, and then continue out of the NW 10-20 kts Friday and into
Saturday morning. Winds become light and somewhat variable from
Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Seas will slowly subside to
5-10 ft by Friday morning, and then to 2-4 ft Saturday and
Sunday.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 300 am wed... Strong winds on Thursday will lead to high
water levels on the soundside of the outer banks north of cape
hatteras, where inundation up to 1 foot will be possible. High
surf is expected across the southern facing beaches with minor
beach erosion possible.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Wind advisory from midnight tonight to 4 pm est Thursday for
ncz047-095-103-104.

High surf advisory from 5 am Thursday to 1 am est Friday for
ncz095-103-104.

High surf advisory from 8 am to 3 pm est Thursday for ncz098.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 4 pm est
Thursday for amz136-137.

Gale warning from 7 pm this evening to 7 pm est Thursday for
amz135-152-154-156-158.

Gale warning from 4 am to 4 pm est Thursday for amz130-131.

Gale warning from 1 am to 4 pm est Thursday for amz150.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Rf ctc
short term... Ctc
long term... Sgk
aviation... Rf sgk
marine... Rf ctc sgk
tides coastal flooding... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 11 mi32 min SSE 18 G 22 57°F 42°F1027.1 hPa
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 12 mi50 min 43°F3 ft
FRFN7 12 mi110 min 2 ft
44086 15 mi25 min 46°F2 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 18 mi35 min 46°F3 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 18 mi38 min SSE 11 G 14 55°F 39°F1028.8 hPa
44095 27 mi34 min 47°F3 ft

Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC2 mi70 minSSE 910.00 miPartly Cloudy60°F40°F48%1028.8 hPa
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC7 mi70 minSSW 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy56°F38°F53%1029.5 hPa

Wind History from FFA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6N4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5SE3S6S5S4S7
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1 day agoNW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:35 AM EST     -0.95 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:54 AM EST     3.94 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:06 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 03:19 PM EST     -0.90 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:19 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:28 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:21 PM EST     3.39 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.7-0.3-0.9-0.9-0.40.61.82.93.73.93.62.81.70.5-0.4-0.9-0.8-0.10.922.93.43.32.7

Tide / Current Tables for Jennetts Pier (ocean), North Carolina
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Jennetts Pier (ocean)
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:34 AM EST     -0.95 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:50 AM EST     3.97 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:05 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 03:18 PM EST     -0.90 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:19 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:27 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:17 PM EST     3.42 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.7-0.3-0.9-0.9-0.30.71.933.843.62.71.60.5-0.4-0.9-0.7-0.112.133.43.32.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.