Monday, July24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kill Devil Hills, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 8:18PM Monday July 24, 2017 4:52 PM EDT (20:52 UTC) Moonrise 6:22AMMoonset 8:17PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ150 S Of Currituck Beach Light To Oregon Inlet Nc Out 20 Nm- 316 Pm Edt Mon Jul 24 2017
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late this evening and overnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Dominant period 5 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds, decreasing to 5 seconds in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms, then showers and tstms likely.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Showers and tstms likely, then a chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kill Devil Hills town, NC
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location: 36.02, -75.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 242008
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
408 pm edt Mon jul 24 2017

Synopsis
A weak cold front will sag into the region Tuesday and
Wednesday. The front will lift north of the area late in the
week. Another cold front will stall over the region next
weekend.

Near term tonight
As of 345 pm Monday...

a less than impressive radar at the moment with only a few
isolated showers trying to pop up along the sea breeze. With
this update we continue to lower chances for thunderstorms
through evening. Higher resolution guidance would suggest only
around a 20% chance through evening. We may be too high with
30-50% chances everywhere where in reality these may be confined
to near the sea breeze as our best shot. Convection should die
down after 02z. We remain in a general thunder risk for severe
weather. Still can't rule out a pulse thunderstorm with damaging
winds with mlcapes approaching 3000 j kg but based on radar
trends and the sea breeze being our only lifting mechanism, this
is looking doubtful by the hour.

Short term Tuesday
As of 345 pm Monday...

a cold front that is to our north over the mid atlantic now will
slowly move into the forecast area Tuesday, increasing chances
for showers and storms. Coverage should be higher than today
with the added lift of the front. Much like the past few days
moderate instability could lead to a few isolated damaging
winds but overall severe threat low with weak mid level shear.

Highs in the 90s and dewpoints in the 70s will lead to heat
indices near 100 again mainly inland.

Long term Tuesday night through Monday
As of 245 pm mon... A cold front will stall over, or just south,
of the region later this week as separate waves of low pressure
ride along it. This will result in a prolonged period of
unsettled weather through early next week.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... A backdoor cold front will
finally slide south of the area Tuesday night turning winds out
of the east. Mostly dry conditions are expected through
Wednesday afternoon, when some scattered showers or
thunderstorms could develop along the southern coast and coastal
plain. High temps on Wednesday are expected to be in the upper
80s inland, and mid 80s near the coast.

Thursday... Cold front will weaken on Thursday and high pressure
will briefly influence our weather with mostly dry conditions
expected. High temps are expected to be in the upper 80s to low
90s inland and the mid upper 80s along the coast.

Friday through Monday... A stronger cold front will approach
from the west on Friday and showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop over the region later in the day. Only have
high chance pops in forecast due to some timing differences
between the euro and gfs. High temps on Friday will reach the
low 90s inland and upper 80s along the coast.

Some crucial differences exist between the latest GFS and euro
Saturday through Monday. The GFS stalls the front over eastern
nc which enables several low pressure pulses to travel over the
region. Widespread showers and heavy thunderstorms are likely
in this solution, with some flooding possible. The euro stalls
the front just to the south of the region near CAPE fear, and
has waves of low pressure that ride up just off the nc coast.

This limits the heavy rain threat to the southern coast with
mostly dry conditions along the northern tier.

So, have gone with likely pops over most of the region Saturday
and across the southern tier Sunday morning where the highest
confidence exists for rain. Then have high chance for the rest
of the day Sunday and Monday. High temps for this period will be
a bit cooler, mostly in the upper 80s inland and low 80s near
the coast.

Low temps in the long term will be mostly in the low 70s inland,
with mid to upper 70s expected along the coast.

Aviation 19z Monday through Saturday
Short term through Tuesday ...

as of 140 pm Monday... MainlyVFR through the end of the taf
period with the exception of convection through this evening.

Most likely terminals for convection would be kiso and koaj with
a tempo MVFR group here and just vcts elsewhere through 02z.

Overnight short term computer models hint at moisture underneath
an inversion, which could produce MVFR CIGS like last night.

However most model guidance only hints at this and without
enough confidence this was left out of the tafs.

Wind southwest 5 kts through the period.

Long term Tuesday night through Friday ...

as of 315 pm mon... MostlyVFR conditions are expected though
Friday, when more widespread rain and thunderstorms are
expected. Some low ceilings are possible Wednesday as a backdoor
cold front crosses the region with E NE winds behind it.

Marine
Short term through Tuesday ...

as of 345 pm... With winds below 25 kts much of the day we
dropped the small craft for the pamlico sound and north of
oregon inlet with this update. This was well warranted with a
long duration of gusts under 25 kts. With that said I wouldn't
be shocked to see a few gusts to 25 kts over the pamlico during
the peak winds of the evening and added this mention to the text
forecast manually.

Farther south impressive seas at diamond buoy with waves up to 9
feet earlier with the persistent strong southwest flow. Winds
over the central and southern waters have decreased to under 25
kts, but seas remain at 4 to 7. Will continue the small craft
here through tonight, and through mid Tuesday morning across the
central waters mainly for seas of 6 feet or greater. From time
to time however a few gusts to 25 kts are also possible
especially tonight.

The big story on the waters Tuesday will be a decrease in wind
and waves along with a wind shift over the northern waters as a
front approaches. Seas will generally be 2 to 5 feet with winds
of 10 to 20 kts. From ocracoke north winds will back toward the
west and even north to northeast up off oregon inlet as a front
moves through the waters. South of ocracoke winds will remain
out of the southwest.

Long term Tuesday night through Friday ...

as of 315 pm mon... A backdoor cold front will turn winds to ene
early Wednesday morning around 10-15 kts. Winds continue to blow
out of the ene through Thursday, although they will weaken to
5-10 kts. Winds veer to the SW later Thursday and then increase
to 15-20 kts Friday. Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft through the
period.

Climate
Record MAX temps for 07 24 (mon)
location temp year
new bern 99 1952 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 90 2016 (khse asos)
greenville 99 2011 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 96 1999 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 101 1952 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 97 1995 (knca awos)

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz095-
098-103-104.

Marine... Small craft advisory until noon edt Tuesday for amz152-154.

Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Tuesday for amz156-158.

Synopsis... Eh
near term... Eh
short term... Eh
long term... Sgk
aviation... Eh sgk
marine... Eh sgk
climate... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 11 mi52 min WSW 9.9 G 16 84°F 62°F1011.4 hPa (-0.4)
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 12 mi52 min 72°F2 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 18 mi47 min 78°F3 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 18 mi52 min SSW 20 G 22 83°F 82°F1011.9 hPa (-0.3)
44095 27 mi64 min 69°F5 ft
41062 37 mi112 min WSW 14 G 18 78°F 80°F1012.9 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Duck, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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SE4
G9
SE11
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SW23
G28
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SW15
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G24
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SW14
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G20
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G25
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G19
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N19
G28
2 days
ago
S5
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G11
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G14
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G18
SW16
SW13
G17

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC2 mi67 minWSW 710.00 miFair86°F74°F67%1011.8 hPa
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC7 mi67 minW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy87°F74°F67%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from FFA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6
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W6W4SW6SW3SW6W6W7SW4SW6SW9
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SW8W6SW6SW8W7
1 day agoSW9
G14
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SW7SW7SW7
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G18
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SW7W8
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W7SW7W6NW7
2 days agoS5CalmS3SW4S8S7CalmCalmSW7SW5SW4CalmSW8CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmSW3SW6SW6
G16
SW8
G14
SW7
G14
SW7
G18

Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:49 AM EDT     -0.73 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:22 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:44 AM EDT     3.62 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:51 PM EDT     -0.59 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:04 PM EDT     4.31 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.30.2-0.5-0.7-0.40.51.72.83.53.63.32.51.40.3-0.4-0.6-0.20.61.83.144.34.13.4

Tide / Current Tables for Jennetts Pier (ocean), North Carolina
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Jennetts Pier (ocean)
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:46 AM EDT     -0.51 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:22 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:44 AM EDT     3.73 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:53 PM EDT     -0.45 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:07 PM EDT     4.23 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:16 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.40.3-0.3-0.5-0.10.81.92.93.63.73.32.51.50.5-0.2-0.4-0.10.81.933.94.243.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.