Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kill Devil Hills, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 4:55PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 2:41 PM EST (19:41 UTC) Moonrise 3:39PMMoonset 3:44AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ150 S Of Currituck Beach Light To Oregon Inlet Nc Out 20 Nm- 1005 Am Est Tue Nov 20 2018
Rest of today..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. A slight chance of showers late this morning.
Tonight..NW winds around 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds, decreasing to 4 seconds after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds.
Thu..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Fri..E winds around 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..SE winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Showers likely.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kill Devil Hills town, NC
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location: 36.02, -75.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 201707
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1207 pm est Tue nov 20 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will pass through the area today. High pressure
will control the weather across the region Wednesday through
Friday. An area of low pressure will affect the area on
Saturday, followed by another one on Monday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 10 am tue... The latest sfc analysis is showing the a low
pressure system off the new england region with it's trailing
cold front over the western sections of nc this morning. The
cold front will pass through eastern nc this afternoon and will
be off the coast by this evening. A plume of moisture is ahead
of the cold front with good lift in the mid to upper levels
which will allow for isolated to scattered rain showers to
develop. Most of the showers will be on the light sides, and not
expecting a lot of accumulation; less than 0.05 inches. Any
shower activity will end quickly from west to east this
afternoon as the front approaches and then moves off the coast.

Kept pops between 20-30% across the area with the highest along
the coastal half. Increased high temps about 1-3 degrees for
today based on this mornings ua sounding; low level thicknesses
are a little higher than predicted. Expect highs in the to
range low to mid 60s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Wednesday
As of 240 am tue... Forecast soundings and time sections show a
very dry airmass across the region tonight under mostly clear
skies with a light northwest wind. Fog is not forecast. Lows
will range in the mid upper 30s inland to lower mid 40s outer
banks.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
As of 3 am Tuesday... Mostly quiet weather is expected through
Friday as surface high pressure prevails across the area. The
models continue to signal more amplification in the upper flow
beginning this weekend and continuing into next week as a mean
trough is carved out over the northeast. The models spawn a
couple of surface lows, one Friday night into Saturday and
another one Monday but differ on their tracks.

Wednesday through Friday... High pressure will build over the
area from the north through the period producing cool dry
weather across eastern nc mid through late week. Highs Wednesday
will be in the 50s. A reinforcing dry cold front will move
through Wednesday night into early Thursday and 850mb temps
drop below zero across the northern half of the area.

Thanksgiving day looks like the coldest day with highs only in
the mid 40s to around 50, coolest across the northern half of
the forecast area, combined with a brisk nne wind. A hard freeze
inland will be possible Thursday night-early Fri morning. Lows
are progged to be in the mid to upper 20s inland and low to mid
30s coast. Highs Friday warm back into the low to mid 50s. Could
see a few coastal showers late in the day Friday as the flow
becomes easterly and moisture increases along the SE coast ahead
of an approaching coastal warm front.

Friday night through Sunday... A developing surface low is
forecast to impact the area Friday night into Saturday but the
track remains uncertain with some models keeping the low
offshore while others are just inland of the nc coast. Still
looking like a period of heavy rain and strong winds for the
area, with any severe threat dependent on the track of the
system (an inland track would be more favorable for severe
weather). Weak high pressure briefly builds into the area from
the southwest Sunday with dry weather expected. Temps will be
mild this period with highs in the 60s and lows in the mid upper
40s inland to low mid 50s coast.

Monday... Another low pressure system is forecast to impact the
area Monday but there remains significant model differences with
the timing, track and intensity of this system and continue to
keep pops in the low chance range. Mild conditions expected to
persist with the region in the warm sector ahead of the front
with highs in the 60s.

Aviation 17z Tuesday through Saturday
Short term through 18z Wednesday ...

as of 1205 pm Tuesday... Shield of mostly mid-level clouds will
continue to slowly erode from west to east during the remainder
of the afternoon. Any light showers are now mostly south of the
taf sites, and will have no impact on ceiling or visibilities
early this afternoon. The TAF sites should have generally clear
skies overnight. Dewpoints will drop off steadily after 00z,
and coupled with a light wnw NW breeze, should preclude any fog
formation tonight.VFR conditions are expected to persist
through midday Wednesday under mostly clear skies.

Long term Wednesday night through Saturday ...

as of 315 am Tuesday...VFR conditions are expected into Friday
with high pressure over the area. Sub-vfr conditions are
expected Friday night into Saturday as a developing low moves
across the area.

Marine
Short term through tonight
as of 10 am tue... The latest buoy observations are showing wsw
winds 10-20 knots and seas 3-4 ft. A cold front will pass
through the marine zones from the west today. The flow will be
westerly today, averaging 10-15 knots north of CAPE hatteras and
15-20 knots south, with 10-15 knots on the sounds and rivers.

Winds tonight will be northwest to north, averaging 15-20 knots
on the coastal waters and 10-15 knots on the sounds and rivers.

Seas today and tonight will average 2-4 knots north of ocracoke
and 3-5 feet south.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday ...

as of 315 am Tuesday... High pressure ridges into the region
Wednesday with NW to W winds around 5-15 kt and seas around 2-4
ft. A dry cold front will move through the waters Wed night and
early Thursday with strong high pressure building in from the
north behind the front. North winds around 15-25 kt with higher
gusts expected Thursday with winds veering to northeast around
10-20 kt Friday, strongest south of CAPE hatteras. Seas expected
to build Thursday and Thursday night to 5-8 ft northern and
central waters and 3-6 ft southern waters, then gradually
diminish to 3-5 ft by late Friday across all waters. This will
be short-lived however as a strong low pressure system is
expected to impact the area Saturday. There remains significant
uncertainty in the track and strength of the low at this time
but could see strong small craft to low end gale force
conditions ahead of the low Saturday and seas building to around
6-10 ft.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Hsa
near term... Hsa bm
short term... Hsa
long term... Sk
aviation... Ctc sk
marine... Sk hsa bm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 11 mi42 min W 4.1 G 5.1 59°F 60°F1013.2 hPa (-0.8)
FRFN7 12 mi102 min 2 ft
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 12 mi42 min 59°F2 ft
44086 15 mi47 min 60°F3 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 18 mi48 min WNW 5.1 G 7 61°F 58°F1013.5 hPa
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 18 mi27 min 58°F2 ft
44095 27 mi26 min 60°F3 ft

Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC2 mi62 minW 410.00 miOvercast58°F52°F82%1013.2 hPa
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC7 mi62 minNW 510.00 miOvercast59°F52°F79%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from FFA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4CalmCalmW3CalmW6W6
G14
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE3NE4E3CalmNE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
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Tue -- 03:44 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:42 AM EST     3.72 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:04 AM EST     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:38 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 04:58 PM EST     3.39 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:07 PM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.81.62.43.23.63.73.42.821.20.60.40.61.11.92.73.23.43.22.61.810.40.1

Tide / Current Tables for Jennetts Pier (ocean), North Carolina
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Jennetts Pier (ocean)
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:43 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:38 AM EST     3.75 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:03 AM EST     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:38 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 04:54 PM EST     3.42 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:06 PM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.81.62.53.23.73.73.42.821.20.60.40.61.21.92.73.23.43.22.61.810.40.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.