Kitty Hawk, NC Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kitty Hawk, NC

May 8, 2024 10:06 PM EDT (02:06 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:02 AM   Sunset 8:00 PM
Moonrise 5:07 AM   Moonset 8:02 PM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 307 Pm Edt Thu Apr 4 2019

Tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.

Fri night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.

Sat - W winds around 5 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.

Sat night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening.

Sun - N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.

Sun night - SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Mon - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.

Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.

AMZ100 805 Pm Edt Wed May 8 2024

Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - A cold front moves through the area on Friday, followed by high pressure over the weekend. Another front will come through around the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kitty Hawk, NC
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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 090027 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 827 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front moves through the area on Friday, followed by high pressure over the weekend. Another front will come through around the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
As of 800 PM Wednesday...MCS is pushing across SE NC this evening bring strong to severe storms. Strongest storms presently south of Hwy 70 and are expected to gradually weaken as they push offshore over the next hour or two. The Severe Thunderstorm watch continues for Duplin Co but will be allowed to expire at 10 pm, if not cancelled sooner. Once this MCS pushes offshore expect quiet conditions through the rest of the overnight but another MCS, currently pushing across TN will be approaching the area late. Latest guidance showing it reaching our western counties around 7-8am and pushing across the FA through the morning.

Previous discussion...A well-defined, but small, MCS is ongoing around the Charlotte metro at this time, and has produced widespread wind damage, as well as some large hail up to 1" size. The downstream airmass across southern NC is moderately unstable (MLCAPE of 2000-2500 j/kg), and deep layer shear is around 30-40kt. The mean 850-300mb flow is westerly, and the MCS may tend to travel a bit more east than southeast with time. On this current trajectory, and assuming no weakening, the MCS would reach the far southern counties of ENC in the 7-10pm timeframe. That said, the boundary layer will eventually "cool" some with the loss of daytime heating, which may eventually lead to a weakening trend. Given the current trends on radar and satellite, and considering the downstream airmass, I expect the MCS to make it to the coast with at least some severe potential (mainly in the form of gusty/damaging winds). In collaboration with SPC, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch (#207) has been issued, and for now only includes Duplin County. Extensions in time/area may be needed later if confidence in the severe risk along the coast increases.

Unrelated to the MCS, a weak confluence zone has supported some weak attempts at initiation over the past hour, but it appears a lack of stronger forcing is limiting further intensification.
We'll continue to monitor that area, as well as the seabreeze, for isolated development prior to the arrival of the MCS.

Once this initial round of convection pushes offshore, guidance is in generally good agreement keeping the weather quiet for several hours (possibly for much of the overnight period). Later this evening, an MCS is forecast to develop well upstream across the TN Valley, and this may provide the next opportunity for thunderstorms late tonight or very early Thursday morning.
This also could pose a risk of severe weather (gusty/damaging winds), although stronger inhibition may tend to increase the odds of any MCS weakening as it approaches our area.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 400 PM Wednesday...

As we get into Thurs, upper level trough over the Great Lakes begins to pivot to the south and east while a jet streak begins to expand over the Mid-Atlantic increasing lift. At the mid levels a fairly potent mid level shortwave rounds the base of the trough and tracks over the Mid-Atlantic Thurs afternoon/evening while at the surface deepening low pressure system in the Great Lakes tracks NE'wards into the Northeast with its associated cold front nearing western NC and a prefrontal trough setting up over the Coastal Plain Thurs evening. With this in mind, early morning shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast to clear out before additional development is forecast in the afternoon with activity likely beginning to the west and quickly moving E'wards into the FA.
Out ahead of the trough and approaching cold front the environment across ENC appears rather supportive for severe weather. Model soundings and latest Hi-Res guidance suggest ample MLCAPE (1000-2000 J/kg) as well as ample DCAPE (700-900 J/kg) and inverted V soundings across the region. In addition to this, deep layer wind shear of 30-40 kts, slightly stronger forcing, and mid level lapse rates closer to 6.5- 7.0 C/km all suggest we will have another threat for strong to severe thunderstorms on Thurs afternoon and evening with storms bringing a threat for damaging wind gusts and hail given the environment. ENC remains in a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather Thurs afternoon and evening.

One potential failure mode for the Thurs threat would be what happens with tonight's convective activity. While it seems to be the outlier, some of the CAM guidance does suggest more robust tstm activity tonight with a MCS moving to our south Thurs morning. If this were to occur, we could see lower instability values and thus a potentially lower severe threat as ENC gets robbed of more robust dynamics and moisture from the MCS to the south. With this in mind, current thinking is this solution has a 20% or less chance of occuring with an 80% chance for strong to severe thunderstorm activity on Thurs and the current forecast reflects this. Stay tuned to the forecast as we continue to refine it on the coming updates to see how this threat trends. Highs get into the low 90s inland and 80s across the OBX while lows only get down into the 60s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As 315 AM Wed...ENC then dries out over the weekend as high pressure ridge builds in from the west and remains over the area into early next week. Next potential round of unsettled weather begins to approach the area around midweek next week.

Friday through early next week... Upper level troughing finally pivots out of the Great Lakes and overspreads the Mid-Atlantic on Fri into Sat with the last and likely strongest mid level shortwave rounding this troughs base on Fri. At the surface, low pressure in the Northeast will continue to trek NE'wards while its associated cold front finally tracks across the region slowing as it pushes offshore. A wave of low pressure then develops along this frontal boundary on Fri as well and tracks along or near the coast. Once again kept thunder in the grids for Fri as HRRR and NBM probs continue to highlight the potential for about 250-500 J/kg of SBCAPE to remain over the area. Either way Friday looks to have the best shot at widespread precip. Through the weekend and into next week general troughing remains over the Eastern Seaboard before gradually ejecting out into the Canadian Maritimes as upper level ridging begins to overspread the Southeast. Dry frontal passage currently forecast Sun evening into Mon before surface ridging begins to overspread ENC from the west on Mon. Temps do cool over the weekend closer to normal.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 800 PM Wednesday...Pred VFR conditions expected through the TAF period but there will be a couple of opportunities for sub-VFR. The first will be between 00-02z this evening as strong to severe thunderstorms push across southern rtes, mainly south of Hwy 70 impacting OAJ and potentially EWN. Once that pushes offshore pred VFR expected through the rest of the overnight but another MCS will be approaching the area toward daybreak that is expected to bring another round of showers and storms around 11-16z. Strong wind gusts and large hail will be possible in the stronger thunderstorms this evening, and potentially for the Thursday morning storms, but those will be reaching the area during a relative minimum in instability and may not be as strong as the storms this evening.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 315 AM Wed...Main concern for sub-VFR conditions would be within any shower or thunderstorm activity that impacts ENC Thursday afternoon and evening with a slightly higher potential for widespread sub VFR conditions on Friday as a cold front moves through the area and more widespread shower activity is forecast. As we get into the weekend and into early next week VFR conditions are then forecast for the rest of the period as high pressure ridging gradually builds in from the west.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Thursday night/...
As of 400 PM Wednesday...

Breezy southwesterly winds of 10-20kt will continue through this evening, followed by gusty/erratic winds associated with a complex of thunderstorms moving offshore. Those thunderstorms will be capable of hail and 40kt+ gusts. The background southwesterly flow will eventually redevelop late tonight or during the day Thursday, but another round of thunderstorms will be possible, with a disruption to the background flow.
Confidence in 25kt winds is still high enough to keep the SCA going, especially with a strengthening pressure gradient on top of the expected thermal gradient. Seas of 3- 4ft will build to 4-6 ft, and last into tonight.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 315 AM Wed...Still expecting a cold front passage Fri morning with shower and thunderstorm activity out ahead of the front Thurs afternoon and evening. Additional shower and thunderstorm activity possible once again on Fri across all waters as the front pushes offshore and a weak wave of low pressure develops along the front. Locally enhanced winds and seas will be possible within any thunderstorm that impacts our waters. Drier weather then expected this weekend and into early next week.

Otherwise we start the period out under SCA conditions from Oregon Inlet south and across the Pamlico Sound as SW'rly winds out ahead of the cold front quickly increase after daybreak on Thursday to 15-25 kts with gusts in excess of 25-30 kts.
Elsewhere across the northern waters and sounds as well as the inland rivers, slightly lighter winds will persist closer to 15-20 kts with a few gusts up around 25 kts, though will have to monitor trends in case inclusion of SCA's becomes necessary especially along the N'rn coastal waters and Neuse river. As the front nears and eventually pushes offshore Fri morning SW'rly winds then decrease down to 10-15 kts, thus ending SCA's across all waters. Behind the front winds gradually turn to a W and then NW direction at 10-15 kts. By Sat light and variable winds are forecast as high pressure ridge gradually builds in from the west with W'rly flow at 10-15 kts returning Sun into early next week. 3-5 ft seas along our coastal waters to start the period quickly increase on Thurs to 5-8 ft. Seas then lower just as quickly on Fri morning back down to 3-5 ft and then to 2-4 ft by Fri evening remaining at these heights into early next week.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday evening for NCZ195-196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ135.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ150-152-154.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ156-158.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 16 mi49 min W 11G14 82°F 29.73
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 18 mi41 min 68°F2 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 26 mi67 min 73°F 68°F2 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 29 mi49 min SW 17G20 75°F 80°F29.78
44086 30 mi41 min 67°F3 ft
44095 40 mi41 min 66°F3 ft
41082 46 mi127 min WSW 9.7 71°F 67°F29.72


Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KFFA FIRST FLIGHT,NC 17 sm21 minSW 0410 smClear81°F68°F66%29.73
KMQI DARE COUNTY RGNL,NC 17 sm21 minWSW 0910 smClear79°F73°F84%29.76
KECG ELIZABETH CITY CG AIR STATION/RGNL,NC 18 sm12 minWSW 0710 smClear79°F70°F74%29.74
Link to 5 minute data for KMQI


Wind History from MQI
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
   
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
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Wed -- 02:17 AM EDT     -0.46 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:12 AM EDT     3.43 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:11 PM EDT     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:35 PM EDT     4.32 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina, Tide feet
12
am
0.9
1
am
-0
2
am
-0.4
3
am
-0.3
4
am
0.3
5
am
1.3
6
am
2.3
7
am
3.1
8
am
3.4
9
am
3.3
10
am
2.7
11
am
1.8
12
pm
0.8
1
pm
0
2
pm
-0.3
3
pm
-0.2
4
pm
0.5
5
pm
1.5
6
pm
2.7
7
pm
3.7
8
pm
4.2
9
pm
4.3
10
pm
3.8
11
pm
2.9


Tide / Current for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina
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Duck Pier
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Wed -- 02:23 AM EDT     -0.56 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:15 AM EDT     3.29 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:10 PM EDT     -0.53 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:39 PM EDT     4.51 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina, Tide feet
12
am
0.9
1
am
-0
2
am
-0.5
3
am
-0.5
4
am
0.1
5
am
1
6
am
2.1
7
am
2.9
8
am
3.3
9
am
3.2
10
am
2.6
11
am
1.7
12
pm
0.7
1
pm
-0.1
2
pm
-0.5
3
pm
-0.3
4
pm
0.3
5
pm
1.4
6
pm
2.6
7
pm
3.7
8
pm
4.4
9
pm
4.5
10
pm
4
11
pm
3.2


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of east us   
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