Sunday, December16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kitty Hawk, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:53PM Sunday December 16, 2018 10:13 PM EST (03:13 UTC) Moonrise 1:07PMMoonset 12:30AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 1001 Pm Est Sun Dec 16 2018
Overnight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt, then diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Waves around 2 ft. Isolated showers late this evening.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night..NW winds around 15 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers.
Fri..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kitty Hawk, NC
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location: 36.04, -75.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 170300
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1000 pm est Sun dec 16 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will briefly build into the region tonight and
tomorrow. Then, a dry backdoor cold front will move trough the
area Monday night with high pressure building over the area
through mid week. Another storm system is forecast to impact the
area Thursday into Friday.

Near term rest of tonight
As of 10 pm sun... Upr low pivoting eastward off the mid
atlantic coast this evening. Piece of vorticity in cyclonic
flow diving SE through va currently, will produce some iso
showers as it moves through the NE portion of the fa this
evening. A few light echoes evident nearing the albemarle sound
attm. Otherwise, clearing skies expected with still relatively
mild overnight lows generally near 40 interior to the mid 40s
beaches.

Previous discussion... As of 200 pm sun... An upper level low
will move off the mid- atlantic coast this evening, with
westerly flow continuing at the surface. High res models
continue to show some widely scattered showers developing
underneath the upper level low later this evening into early
tonight across the albemarle sound and nobx. Have slight chance
pops for these areas for a few hours, and then expect the rest
of the night to be dry with high pressure building in behind the
low.

Temperatures are currently in the upper 50s to low 60s this
afternoon under mostly sunny skies. Temps should cool quickly
after sunset, and drop into the upper 40s to low 50s this
evening. There should be enough wind overnight to prevent most
inland locations from decoupling, but temps will still drop into
the upper 30s inland, low to mid 40s along the coast.

Short term Monday
As of 200 pm sun... High pressure will continue to ridge west
into the region tomorrow, with mostly sunny skies expected. High
temps will be similar to today, perhaps a degree or two warmer
(upper 50s to low 60s).

Long term Monday night through Sunday
As of 315 pm Sunday... High pressure builds over the area
through mid week. Another complex storm system is expected to
impact the area Thursday into Friday, with a return to dry
conditions for the weekend.

Monday night through Wednesday... A strong northern stream jet
digging into the great lakes and northeast will allow the upper
low to quickly lift NE away from the area early this week. A dry
backdoor cold front will push south across the area Monday
night with surface high pressure building back into the region
from the west through mid week. Mid-level wnw downslope flow
continues Monday with highs inland in the low to mid 50s inland,
to mid to upper 50s coast. Northerly flow results in coolest
day of the week on Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 40s
coast to the lower 50s inland. High pressure begins to slide
offshore on Wednesday with return flow beginning to moderate
the airmass. Highs Wednesday will be in the low to mid 50s.

Lows will drop back into the 30s Monday night. Excellent
radiational cooling conditions expected Tuesday night with high
pressure overhead and expect upper 20s inland to upper 30s
coast.

Thursday through Friday... The next storm system is progged to
impact the area the latter half of this week. Fairly good
agreement in the 12z guidance with a strong upper trough digging
into the deep south states Thursday into Friday, then northeast
into new england by the weekend. Will continue likely pops
Thursday through Thursday night. WFO newport only needs a little
more than half an inch of rain to reach 100 inches on the year,
which looks likely based on model QPF for this system. There
was uncertainty in the guidance on how soon the dry air will
move into the area as the system departs so will hang on to
chance pops for for lingering showers into Friday night. Temps
will likely be several degrees above normal ahead of this system
Thursday, with highs climbing back into the 60s with mild
overnight lows. Mild temps to continue Thursday night and Friday
where highs again could reach into the 60s.

Saturday and Sunday... The large upper trough lifts northeast
away from the area by this weekend, while a broad surface ridge
builds into the region from the west. The preliminary forecast
for next weekend looks dry with seasonably cool highs in the 50s
as high pressure builds in from the west.

Aviation 03z Monday through Friday
Short term through 18z Monday ...

as of 7 pm sun... Piece of energy rotating around departing upr
low to the northeast producing some lingeringVFR stratus across
e nc. Bkn 4-5k ft deck will erode through mid evening (02-03z)
as drier air courtesy of building high pres begins to advect
into the region. Mainly clr skies through the rest of the pd
with wrly winds around 10 kt. The winds and drier air expected
to preclude fog development overnight.

Long term Monday night through Friday ...

as of 315 pm Sunday... PredominantlyVFR conditions expected
through Wednesday. A dry cold front pushes across the area
Monday night with high pressure then building across the region
through mid-week. Sub-vfr conditions likely again Thursday
through Friday morning in widespread rain showers.

Marine
Short term through tomorrow night ...

as of 200 pm sun... Small craft advisories continue for all the
coastal waters through the next few days. Winds are currently
ssw 15-20 kts with gusts to around 25 kts across the coastal
waters, and seas are generally 4-6 ft. Winds strengthen briefly
overnight to 20-25 kts with some gusts to 30 kts, but then
become W 15-20 kts through the day tomorrow. Seas may briefly
drop below 6 feet tomorrow, however seas are expected to build
back over 6 ft late tomorrow night.

Long term Monday night through Friday ...

as of 315 pm Sunday... Sca's for the central and northern waters
will be continued through Tuesday. A secondary northerly surge
to 25 kt is expected Monday night into Tuesday following the
passage of a dry cold front through the eastern nc waters. Seas
will build back to 6 ft late Monday night through Tuesday over
the northern and central waters. High pressure builds over the
waters Tuesday night and Wednesday with light northerly winds
Tuesday night becoming light SE Wednesday with seas subsiding
to 3-4 ft Tuesday night and 2-3 ft Wednesday. The approach of
the next storm system Thursday will likely see a return to sca
conditions with se-s flow increasing to 25 kt and seas building
to 5-8 ft. Nwps and latest wavewatch guidance in good agreement
for the medium and extended ranges.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est Tuesday for amz150-152-154.

Small craft advisory until 7 am est Tuesday for amz156-158.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Tl sgk
short term... Sgk
long term... Dag jme
aviation... Dag jme tl
marine... Dag jme sgk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 16 mi56 min WNW 8.9 G 12 50°F 51°F1012 hPa
FRFN7 17 mi194 min 2 ft
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 18 mi44 min 48°F3 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 26 mi59 min 49°F4 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 29 mi62 min WNW 8 G 11 52°F 53°F1012.2 hPa
44086 30 mi49 min 51°F4 ft
44095 40 mi58 min 49°F4 ft

Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC17 mi34 minN 04.00 miRain49°F48°F99%1012.2 hPa
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC17 mi34 minNNW 610.00 miOvercast50°F47°F92%1012.9 hPa
Elizabeth City C/G Regional Airport, NC18 mi20 minWNW 910.00 miOvercast49°F46°F90%1013.4 hPa

Wind History from MQI (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSE9
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SW12SW7S6S8S5S6SW6S9SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3E4CalmS3S6S7Calm
2 days agoCalmE3CalmCalmCalmE4NE3NE6NE7NE7E10E9E8E6E6E5SE5SE6SE6SE9SE8SE8SE11
G16
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G16

Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:29 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 01:23 AM EST     2.86 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:38 AM EST     0.66 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:05 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:35 PM EST     2.85 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:49 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:59 PM EST     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.62.82.82.521.510.70.70.91.422.52.82.82.62.11.50.90.50.30.50.91.6

Tide / Current Tables for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina
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Duck Pier
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:29 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 01:31 AM EST     2.84 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:48 AM EST     0.78 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:05 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:41 PM EST     2.83 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:49 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:06 PM EST     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.82.82.62.31.81.30.90.811.31.82.42.72.82.62.21.71.10.50.30.40.81.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.