Wednesday, June19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kitty Hawk, NC

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Sunrise 5:45AMSunset 8:26PM Wednesday June 19, 2019 1:29 PM EDT (17:29 UTC) Moonrise 9:29PMMoonset 6:43AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ131 Alligator River- 118 Pm Edt Wed Jun 19 2019
This afternoon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Showers and tstms likely.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the evening.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming s. Waves light chop.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kitty Hawk, NC
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location: 36.04, -75.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 191342
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
942 am edt Wed jun 19 2019

Synopsis
A weak trough will push across the area today. High pressure
offshore will then dominate ahead of a weak front that will
cross the region early Friday. Settled weather will return later
Friday into the weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 940 am wed... Early morning complex of showers has moved
offshore at this hour, with some stratiform showers moving in
from the west. Widespread cloud cover today will limit temps and
instability, though deep layer shear of around 25 kts, will keep
things interesting. Expect scattered to eventually widespread
showers and thunderstorms to develop later this morning and
lasting through the afternoon hours. Will monitor trends, but it
looks like storms should stay sub-severe today, and have high
temps reaching the mid to upper 80s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Thursday
As of 245 am Wednesday... Shortwave energy and the surface
trough move well away from the area tonight and expect shower
and thunderstorm activity to diminish through the evening with
loss of surface heating with mainly dry conditions after
midnight. Temps will remain mild with lows in the low to mid
70s.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
As of 315 am Wednesday... Unsettled weather is expected Thursday
ahead of a weak cold front before a somewhat more benign
pattern develops Friday into Saturday. Periodic chances for
isolated showers and thunderstorms return to start next week.

Thursday... A strong mid-level shortwave forecast to approach the
mid-atlantic u.S, combined with deep moisture as indicated by
forecast pwats of around 2 inches, point to the best chance for
showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening, and
have moved pops up to likely mainly west of hwy 17. 0-6 km bulk
shear of around 20-25 knots supports the idea of a few more
organized stronger storms capable mainly of some gusty winds.

Some localized heavy rainfall is also possible especially with
any storms that manage to train. SPC has our western tier of
counties in a marginal risk during this period. A weak surface
trough inland sharpens ahead of the front during the day,
leading to a tightening gradient and gusty SW winds during the
day.

Forecast 850 mb temps around +19 c point to surface highs in
the low to potentially mid 90s. Combined with dew points in the
low 70s, heat indices are expected to reach 100+ degrees
Thursday afternoon.

Friday and Saturday... The front and mid-level energy quickly
progress offshore with weak ridging building in their wake Friday
morning with a marginally drier airmass advecting from the
northwest. It will still be quite warm however, with highs
approaching or at 90 both days.

Sunday through Tuesday... Southerly to southwesterly flow will
help aid renewed moisture advection into the region to start the
next week with chances for a few showers and thunderstorms to
fire mainly along the seabreeze. There are a couple mid-level
weaknesses in the ridge that could help aid in somewhat more
scattered coverage, but model spread in the timing of these
features precludes anything higher than low-chance pops.

Currently the best chance appears to be Tuesday with a mid-
level shortwave forecast to lift into the great lakes which
would dampen the ridge, but confidence in the timing of this
feature is low. Monday and Tuesday will be the warmest days with
highs approaching the mid 90s, and heat indices approaching 100
each day.

Aviation 14z Wednesday through Sunday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 730 am Wednesday... Periods of sub-vfr conditions likely
across rtes today as a mid level shortwave and weak surface
trough moves across the region serving to enhance showers and
thunderstorm activity across rtes. Coastal areas will have a
better chance of seeing convection through mid-morning, then
inland areas will have a better chance late morning through
early evening. Convection expected to dissipate through the
evening as the shortwave pushes east of the area and instability
decreases. Most guidance is keepingVFR conditions tonight, but
elevated low level moisture remains and cannot rule out low
stratus for fog developing late tonight.

Long term Thursday through Sunday ...

as of 400 am Wednesday... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected Thursday ahead of an approaching front with periods of
sub-VFR conditions. A few storms could potentially be strong
with gusty winds and lowered visibility due to heavy rainfall.

Gusty SW winds are expected Thursday and Thursday night,
becoming W on Friday. PredominantVFR conditions expected Friday
into Sunday as dry air filters in behind cold front.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 315 am Wednesday... A weak coastal trough will push across
the waters today bringing S to SW winds around 10-20 kt,
strongest across the southern and central coastal waters, with
seas around 2-4 ft northern waters and 3-5 ft central and
southern waters. The trough moves well offshore tonight with
gradients tightening and expect SW winds to increase to 15 to
25 kt with seas building to 2-5 ft northern waters and 4-6 ft
central and southern waters. Continue the SCA for the coastal
waters south of oregon inlet and pamlico sound but adjusted the
start time by a few hours as 00z guidance is a bit slower in
bringing winds seas up.

Long term Thursday through Sunday ...

as of 400 am Wednesday... The pressure gradient is expected to
tighten Thursday between retreating high pressure and a
sharpening surface trough inland. SW winds of 15-25 knots are
expected especially Thursday afternoon into the overnight hours,
with gusts up to 30 knots possible especially for the outer
cntrl waters. SCA conditions are likely with seas building to
6-9 feet. Winds veer westerly Friday and diminish to around 15
knots, before veering north and becoming light with weak high
pressure to the north. These conditions are expected until
Saturday night as the high once again shifts offshore. S ssw
winds Sunday expected to increase to around 10-15 knots Sunday
with a tightening thermal gradient.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 6 am edt
Thursday for amz135-231.

Small craft advisory from 11 pm this evening to 2 pm edt
Friday for amz154.

Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 2 pm edt Friday
for amz156-158.

Small craft advisory from 11 pm this evening to noon edt
Friday for amz152.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Sgk
short term... Sk
long term... Ms
aviation... Sk ms
marine... Sk ms


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 16 mi60 min SW 8.9 G 11 81°F 66°F1010.2 hPa
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 18 mi90 min 73°F2 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 26 mi30 min 75°F2 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 29 mi66 min S 8 G 8.9 79°F 81°F1011 hPa
44086 30 mi35 min 74°F3 ft
44095 40 mi44 min 78°F3 ft

Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC17 mi50 minno data10.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F72°F72%1010.5 hPa
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC17 mi50 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F75°F86%1010.8 hPa
Elizabeth City C/G Regional Airport, NC18 mi36 minW 810.00 miFair83°F73°F72%1010.3 hPa

Wind History from FFA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:43 AM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:36 AM EDT     3.07 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:34 PM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:53 PM EDT     3.63 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:27 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.31.40.60.1-00.311.82.5332.72.11.30.60.20.20.51.32.12.93.53.63.4

Tide / Current Tables for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina (2)
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Duck Pier
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:43 AM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:40 AM EDT     3.09 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:34 PM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:57 PM EDT     3.65 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.41.40.60.1-00.311.82.533.12.72.11.30.60.20.10.51.22.12.93.53.73.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.