Sunrise 6:05 AM   Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 3:31 AM   Moonset 4:19 PM

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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 307 Pm Edt Thu Apr 4 2019
Tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Fri night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.Sat - W winds around 5 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Sat night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening. Sun - N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.Sun night - SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.

AMZ100 330 Am Edt Sun May 5 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - Front that has lingered over the area since Friday retreats nward while becoming more diffuse. Benign winds/seas into the early week but shower and tstorm activity is expected.

FXUS62 KMHX 050841 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 441 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will rebuild offshore while weak troughing continues across the Eastern Seaboard for the next few days, but warm moist southerly flow will lead to unsettled conditions.
Drier but hotter conditions briefly expected Wednesday, before an approaching strong frontal system brings unsettled weather back to the area Thursday and Friday and potentially into the beginning of next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 0330 Sunday...High pressure remains just offshore this morning. Ongoing moisture advection continues to increase with low level flow becoming more SSEerly. Precip continues along a fairly narrow band from Eern Carteret county Nward along the Inner Banks through the overnight, generally aligned along the remnant Eern portion of the front as well as an area of favorable nocturnal speed convergence. There is some discrepancy with where it will line up exactly however, with some of the Wern-most solutions approaching the hwy 17 corridor. Have opted to keep this band closer to the Eern solutions. While most of the shower activity overnight will generally be light, there could be some spots that receive a decent amount of QPF, esp. in areas where training occurs and could see a narrow band of 1-1.5"+ as depicted by some hi-res models.

Shower and tstorm activity will increase from the W this afternoon with the support of a passing shortwave with more iso-sct showers possible elsewhere. Chc PoPs cover the area through the morning with a period of LKLY in the afternoon for the far Wern edge of the FA CAPE will be sufficient but shear will be lacking once again, so tstorms remain possible but the severe threat is low. Mostly cloudy to OVC skies expected through the day due to convection and debris clouds which will limit MaxTs Sunday; approaching 80 away from the coast, low 70s beaches.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/
As of 0345 Sunday...SFC high off the NECONUS gets shunted S by a front working through New England tonight which will slowly veer winds through the period to become SSWerly in the early morning hours MON. Precip potential wanes overnight with mid and upper level flow becoming more zonal as high shifts Sward.
However, moisture content remains relatively high, near the 90th percentile of climatology which means that ISO to widely SCT showers cannot be completely ruled out. Mostly Serly flow and mostly cloudy skies keeps MinTs warm and muggy, generally mid 60s, upper 60s beaches.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As 330 AM Sun...Unsettled weather will continue for the first half of the week as weak troughing lingers over the East Coast and warm moist southerly flow develops. By Wednesday drier conditions will briefly return but will be accompanied by an increase in heat and humidity. Then an approaching strong frontal system will bring unsettled weather back to the area late Thursday through Friday and possible into Saturday.

Monday through Wednesday...Winds will veer to the SW Monday and Tuesday as high pressure rebuilds offshore. Despite this, a combination of weak troughing inland and deep moist southerly flow will bring fairly unsettled conditions through Tuesday.
Showers and convection will be diurnally enhanced and will target the NC coastal plain. Temperatures will be in the upper 70s to low 80s Monday, and the low to mid 80s Tuesday.

Drier conditions are briefly expected Wednesday as upper level riding builds back over the Southeast. Increasing low level thicknesses and continued SW flow will result in hot and humid conditions with afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s inland, and low to mid 80s along the coast.

Thursday through Saturday...Weak upper level troughing will again redevelop overhead Thursday with a large trough looming across the Great Lakes. This will bring a more conducive environment for afternoon/evening shower and thunderstorm development with hot and humid conditions expected again.
However, questions remain about the quickness with which troughing will develop locally and have will limit precip chances to around 50% at this time range.

A robust shortwave trough will swing southward into the area on Friday with a surface cold front also surging south from the Mid-Atlantic. Ahead of this front a moist and unstable airmass will persist, and the initial impression of this weather pattern indicates severe weather will be possible, with potential for a significant event if all ingredients come together. That being said, much can change at this time scale but we will continue to monitor this potential.

The front will push through the area sometime Friday night or early Saturday, with mostly dry conditions expected by Saturday.
A more seasonable airmass will move in behind the front with highs near to just below normal.

AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Saturday night/...
As of 0100 Sunday...CIGs expected to lower to MVFR across NW sections late tonight (around 06-08z) which could impact PGV and ISO. In addition, a band of showers is expected to lift N across Eern rtes late this evening through the overnight with periods of sub-VFR conditions likely. Some of the showers could be locally heavy bringing occasional IFR/LIFR conditions.
Generally expect this line to remain E of the TAF sites, but may approach EWN late tonight. With plenty of low level moisture in place, could see MVFR cigs linger through Sunday morning as LCL's rise with daytime heating. Pred VFR expected Sunday afternoon but scattered showers and thunderstorms will bring periods of sub-VFR conditions with greatest chances occuring across the Wern coastal plain.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sun...Generally VFR conditions are expected through mid next week, however unsettled conditions every day except Wednesday could lead to moments of sub-VFR conditions each afternoon/evening.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 0400 Sunday...Winds slowly veer through the short term, SEerly 10-15kt through the morning, Serly overnight still 10-15kt but outer waters near GStream 15-20kt. Seas will be 2-4 ft. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through the period but the severe threat is low.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sun...Decent boating conditions will continue early this week. Worsening conditions are expected by mid week with Small Craft conditions likely developing across portions of the coastal waters.

Winds Monday will generally be SW 10-15 kts, and then increase to 15-20 kts Tuesday. By Tuesday night, winds will strengthen slightly more, which will lead to occasional 25 kt gusts across the coastal waters through Wednesday. SW winds will increase further Thursday as the gradient increaes ahead of a cold front, and SW winds will become 20-30 kts.

Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft through Tuesday morning, and will then increase to 3-5 ft. Late Tuesday night some 6 foot seas will develop across portions of the coastal waters through Wednesday. Seas will increase to 5-7 ft Thursday in response to strengthening winds.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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