Sunrise 6:07 AM   Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 2:34 AM   Moonset 1:56 PM

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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 307 Pm Edt Thu Apr 4 2019
Tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Fri night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.Sat - W winds around 5 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Sat night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening. Sun - N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.Sun night - SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.

AMZ100 646 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - Mostly dry backdoor cold front sags S through nern waters this afternoon before stalling over the area where it will linger into early next week. Benign winds/seas through the weekend but shower and tstorm activity to increase. Guidance continues to suggest sea fog development across area waters through at least Saturday.

FXUS62 KMHX 031110 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 710 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will continue offshore today and into the weekend.
A slow moving cold front will dip south into North Carolina this afternoon and linger over the area Saturday before retreating northward on Sunday. Thereafter weak troughing across the Eastern Seaboard and warm moist southerly flow will lead to unsettled conditions through early next week. Drier conditions are expected by mid week, but will lead to increasing heat and humidity as ridging builds.

NEAR TERM /TODAY/
As of 0400 Friday...Fog that developed overnight lingers into mid morning, but the densest fog will begin eroding with sunrise prompting mixing of the nocturnal inversion. SPS has been issued for the fog. Ridging aloft remains in place over ECONUS and a mostly dry backdoor cold front sags S through the Nern half of the FA this afternoon. The front in conjunction with the sea/sound/river breezes will shift winds Eerly 10-15kt behind it which will bring a noticeable T drop. Afternoon seabreeze developing over Crystal Coast, unimpeded by large scale flow, will penetrate well inland through the afternoon, reaching the I95 corridor by this evening. Previous runs of the typical pessimistic guidance showed scattered showers popping up this afternoon along the boundaries pushing through the FA, but have slightly backed off. Further, forecast soundings from the same models show quite a bit of dry air through the column. There may be enough convergence and moisture pooling just ahead of where the front and seabreeze meet late this afternoon to spark some showers, but the ridging aloft should act to suppress them.
Have increased PoPs in this "convergence zone" but have kept below mentionable in forecast text products. Highs approaching 90 inland with highs along the coast limited to mid to upper 70s by cool air behind the backdoor front and/or seabreeze.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/
As of 0400 Friday...The backdoor front stalls out over the FA tonight where it will linger through the first half of the weekend. Another round of fog and/or stratus possible overnight with winds expected to become light and var and ample moisture in the low levels. Muggy lows in the mid 60s for most.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As 315 AM Fri...A weak cold front will dip southward into the Carolinas this weekend with some scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Unsettled weather will continue for the first half of next week as weak troughing lingers over the East Coast and warm moist southerly flow develops. By mid next week drier conditions will return but will be accompanied by an increase in heat and humidity.

Saturday and Sunday...A weak front will remain over ENC Saturday with easterly flow expected most of the day. Stable onshore flow will limit instability development, and with drier air holding on across the area for most of the day, it is looking to be a mostly dry day with the exception of the coastal plain where some isolated shower/thunderstorm development may occur.
Temperatures will remain above normal but a bit cooler than Friday with highs ranging from the upper 70s to low 80s (cooler along the coast with the onshore flow).

Winds will veer to the south Sunday as the front retreats to the north. However this will bring better moisture/instability to the area and allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop Sunday afternoon with the most widespread rain across the coastal plain. Similar temps expected with highs in the 70s to low 80s.

Monday and Tuesday...High pressure will rebuild well offshore early next week while weak troughing remains along the Eastern Seaboard. With a moist and unstable airmass in place, diurnally enhanced showers and thunderstorms will develop with the best chances again over the coastal plain. Highs will reach the upper 70s to low 80s again Monday with increasing low level thicknesses boosting Tuesday's highs into the low to mid 80s.

Wednesday and Thursday...Drier conditions are expected mid week as upper level riding builds back over the Southeast. However, increasing low level thicknesses and continued southerly flow will lead to hot and humid conditions will afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s inland, and the low to mid 80s closer to the coast. Some isolated airmass showers and thunderstorms are also possible each afternoon.

AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Friday Night/...
As of 0700 Friday...Mix of VFR and sub VFR flight cats early this morning due to fog. VFR returns after fog dissipates in an hr or so. VFR through the day Friday with light and variable winds which will become predominantly onshore this afternoon behind the seabreeze in the S and Eerly for Nern zones behind a dry backdoor cold front sinking S from VA. Might see FEW-SCT diurnal CU field around FL050 this afternoon ahead of the seabreeze and front. Another round of subVFR flight cats is expected tonight with potential for a fog/stratus event due to moist low levels, light and variable to calm winds, and the front which will stall over the area tonight.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 315 AM Fri...Generally VFR conditions are expected through early next week, however increasingly unsettled conditions could lead to moments of sub-VFR conditions each afternoon/evening.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Fri/...
As of 0400 Friday...Sub-SCA conditions through the period. Light and variable winds early become Swerly late morning 5-10kt.
Mostly dry backdoor cold front sags S through the Nern waters this afternoon, shifting winds Eerly 10-15G20kt behind it. Some gusts may approach 25kt over Albemarle Sound, but not expecting SCA criteria gusts to persist. Winds become more Serly 10-15kt over Sern waters where the seabreeze circulation can be felt. Seas only 1-2 ft throughout.

Fog threat persists into the weekend for coastal waters, sounds, and rivers once again.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 315 AM Fri...Decent boating conditions are expected this weekend with slightly worsening conditions developing early next week.

Winds will be easterly Saturday at 5-10 kts and then come around to the south of Sunday at 5-15 kts. SW winds then develop Monday through most of next week with winds increasing to 10-20 kts.
Seas will be generally 2-4 ft through Monday and then increase to 3-5 ft Tuesday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Duck Pier
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Fri -- 03:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:37 AM EDT     3.33 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:59 AM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:19 PM EDT     3.35 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:33 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
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Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina, Tide feet

Kitty Hawk (ocean)
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Fri -- 03:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:37 AM EDT     3.39 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:00 AM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:12 PM EDT     3.51 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:33 PM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
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Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina, Tide feet

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