Tuesday, June27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Southern Shores, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:48AMSunset 8:28PM Tuesday June 27, 2017 1:31 PM EDT (17:31 UTC) Moonrise 8:43AMMoonset 10:25PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ150 S Of Currituck Beach Light To Oregon Inlet Nc Out 20 Nm- 115 Pm Edt Tue Jun 27 2017
This afternoon..Variable winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the evening.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds.
Wed night..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds.
Thu..S winds around 5 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southern Shores, NC
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location: 36.1, -75.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 271718
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
118 pm edt Tue jun 27 2017

Synopsis
A weak cold front will cross the area later today into tonight.

High pressure will build over the area Wednesday, then slides
off the coast for Wednesday night into Friday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Broad trough aloft slides fm the ERN great lakes oh valley e
through the NE CONUS and mid atlc region this aftn into this
evening. A relatively potent S W aloft will track acrs the local
area this aftn early evening. Despite relatively dry airmass,
this system could prove strong enough to squeeze out isolated to
sctd showers tstms, esply along and E of I 95. Will carry
20-30% pops, with the highest pops over extrm SE va and NE nc.

Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Thursday
Sfc hi pres will finally build into over the region tonight
through wed... Providing dry weather and comfortable conditions
under a mainly clear sky. Lows tonight in the l-m50s inland... To
the u50s to l60s at the coast. Highs on Wed ranging in the
l-m80s... Mainly 70s at the beaches.

The high will slide off the coast for Wed night and thu... Maintaining
dry wx. A little more humidity returns as ssw flow starts to
dominate again (dewpoints return to more climo normal levels (in
the 60s) by Thu afternoon). Lows Wed night in the u50s-l60s
inland... L-m60s at the coast. Highs Thu 85-90f... Except l80s at
the beaches.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
Long term period will begin mainly dry Thu night Fri as the
models remain in good agreement with the pattern of high
pressure at the sfc and aloft centered off the mid-atlc se
coast. Highs Fri look to warm into the upper 80s lower 90s with
dew pts increasing to the upper 60s lower 70s. An isolated late
day TSTM possible over the far W and for interior NE nc but have
genly kept pops <15%. A little better chance for rain arrives
sat aftn Sat night as somewhat deeper moisture develops along a
lee trough. Will cap pops at 20-30% in the aftn evening under
partly-mostly sunny skies as any more significant forcing stays
w of the mtns closer to an approaching cold front. Lows mainly
70-75 f with highs again primarily in the upper 80s to lower
90s. Sunday will see a further increase in pops to ~40% by
aftn evening as the cold front gets closer to the local area.

With this several days out will cap pops at 40% for now, but may
raise pops for this in future updates if the timing holds. Mon
will see the front slow or stall across mainly southern portions
of the area with ~40% pops S to 20-30% elsewhere. Lows upper
60s to lower 70s and highs 85-90 f.

Aviation 17z Tuesday through Saturday
Vfr conditions through the 18z TAF period. A weak cold front
will pass through the region late this afternoon tonight.

Additional isolated scattered shwrs tstms are possible this
afternoon and evening, especially E of I 95. Latest hi-res
guidance suggests ksby has the best chance, but not high enough
to include in TAF at this time. Winds will be variable and under
10kts until frontal passage, then become N NE post frontal
passage. Otherwise...VFR conditions expected for much of the
week... As sfc hi pres builds over the region, then slides off
the coast on Thursday. Next chance for ceiling vsby
restrictions will be late Friday Saturday in scattered
showers tstms.

Marine
10 am update... Have increased winds waves through the rest
of the morning as observations show brief northerly surge moving
down the middle lower bay. Winds should subside to 10 kt or
less around or shortly after noon. In addition, hi res models
suggest another northerly surge overnight into early Wednesday
morning behind secondary cold front. Winds could approach sca
criteria for a brief period, before again subsiding by late
morning. Rest of forecast unchanged at this time.

Previous discussion... Generally a quiet pattern through wed
night with a weak pressure gradient, although there will be a
few brief wind shifts W weak frontal passages early this
morning and with pressure rises Wed morning as sfc high pressure
builds into the region from the nw. Weak CAA today will only
bring N NW winds behind the front of 10-15 kt, diminishing by
aftn to 5-10 kt. Sfc high pressure returns for Wednesday aftn
leading to an aftn sea breeze 10 kt or less. Waves over the bay
only 1-2 ft with seas over the coastal waters 2-3 ft thru wed.

High pressure slides well off the coast Thursday Friday with
return flow resulting in increasing s-sw winds to 15-20 kt.

Waves 2-3 ft on the bay and seas possibly building to 4-5 ft
north of parramore island (genly more like 2-4 ft for southern
coastal waters). A few SCA headlines may be needed late Thu thu
night, but they will be marginal events.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Tmg
near term... Tmg
short term... Alb tmg
long term... Lkb
aviation... Wrs
marine... Jdm lkb wrs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 6 mi43 min ESE 6 G 7 80°F 70°F1015.9 hPa
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 13 mi56 min 74°F1 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 23 mi43 min E 6 G 8
44095 31 mi43 min 76°F1 ft
41062 39 mi91 min NNW 1.9 G 1.9 78°F 77°F1017.4 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC6 mi46 minN 010.00 miFair83°F55°F39%1016.3 hPa
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC12 mi46 minNNE 310.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F61°F51%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from FFA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4NE3E5CalmE3E4E3CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4CalmNW4CalmNW4
1 day agoNW3CalmW3SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5NW4NW3NW4NW5NW3N3NW4N6N5N7NE3N4NE5
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmE3CalmS5CalmSW4SW5W3CalmCalmSW5W3SW4W3W5W4W4W4W7W5W4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
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Tue -- 04:51 AM EDT     -0.75 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:50 AM EDT     3.47 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:57 PM EDT     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:06 PM EDT     3.91 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:25 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.52.51.30.2-0.6-0.7-0.40.41.52.63.33.53.22.51.60.6-0.1-0.3-0.10.61.72.83.63.9

Tide / Current Tables for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina
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Duck Pier
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:53 AM EDT     -0.51 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:58 AM EDT     3.53 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:56 PM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:13 PM EDT     4.07 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:25 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.72.81.50.4-0.3-0.5-0.20.51.52.63.33.53.32.71.70.70.1-0.20.10.71.72.83.74.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.