Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Southern Shores, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 5:16PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 2:25 AM EST (07:25 UTC) Moonrise 6:45AMMoonset 5:03PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
AMZ150 S Of Currituck Beach Light To Oregon Inlet Nc Out 20 Nm- 104 Am Est Tue Jan 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Patchy freezing fog. Patchy fog late. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Patchy fog and freezing fog in the morning. A slight chance of rain in the morning, then a chance of rain in the afternoon. Vsby 1 nm or less in the morning.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. A chance of rain, mainly in the evening.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds. Rain likely or a chance of snow in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Snow or rain likely in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southern Shores, NC
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 36.1, -75.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kakq 160624
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
124 am est Tue jan 16 2018

Synopsis
Arctic high pressure will extend south into the region tonight.

A cold front crosses the area Wednesday morning with low
pressure moving northeast along the coast Wednesday afternoon
and night. A second surge of arctic air pushes across the area
Wednesday night and Thursday before temperatures moderate into
next weekend.

Near term through today
Latest wx analysis features strong sfc high pressure lifting ne
across atlantic canada, with the surface ridge still down into
interior portions of va nc. A sfc trough is still situated just
off the nc va coast and continues to keep low clouds in place
over eastern sections of the CWA this evening. Earlier snow
showers across the eastern shore have ended, with the main
challenge for the overnight forecast being with clouds and
potential for fog. In general, the model output showing
widespread vsbys less than 1sm over eastern and SE va appears
way overdone given all of the cloud cover that will be slow to
diminish (if at all). Have added some 3 to 5 sm vsbys E of i-95
later tonight but unless all of the low clouds scatter out,
dense fog looks unlikely even though winds will be rather light.

As for overnight lows, it will be much colder west of i-95 where
dew pts are significantly lower and skies stay mostly clear for
much of the night, expect lows 15-20 f over much of the
piedmont. Lows will avg 20-25 f across the i-95 corridor and a
few counties on east, with 25-30 f more likely near the coast
in clouds and a light NE flow.

Another weak low progged to lift north just off the coast tue
with a cold front approaching from the west. The local area
will be in btwn these features as weak high drifts toward the
carolina coast. Although weak, the return flow results in a
short lived warm-up across the region as temps rise into the
low- mid 40s.

Short term tonight through Thursday
Closed upper low over western great lakes will be the main
weather maker in the short term period. Emerging model agreement
with the 12z suite of models that the system will slide east, as
a progressive, positively tilted trough by Wednesday. This
system will eventually shunt a stalled frontal boundary east,
ramping up snow chances late Tue night and Wed as better
lift dynamics arrive into later Tue night.

Have trended toward blended 12z ECMWF nam solution with the fcst
package. This is a slightly slower solution, but maintains the
open wave aloft. In turn, this allows the development of the
sfc low slightly closer to the coast, albeit still offshore. It
also allows a stronger piece of the shortwave to push across
the local area into Wednesday aftn. Forecast confidence has
improved enough to nudge much of the CWA up into likely pop,
with the exception for the far NE zones. Overall, timing has
slowed slightly, but still on track for late Tue night across
the piedmont, towards sunrise Wed metro ric, and Wed morning
tidewater. Likely pops then continue Wed across the piedmont as
the upr lvl moisture tracks se. Will need to watch for
sharpening axis of f-gen oprh depicted by the high-res nam... As
it may portend to a period of moderate snow even into hampton
roads Wed aftn. Have accordingly bumped snow accums up there
slightly. Highs 30-35.

Pcpn exits off the coast Wed evening with decreasing clouds after
midnite. Cold as yet another shot of arctic air overspreads the
area so would think any snow or water from the storm freezes
solid. Lows 15-20 except lwr 20s sern coastal zones.

Qpf has nudged up slightly ~.10 east of the i95 corridor, .10
to .25 i-95 corridor and west. Expect varying slr's across the
fa as well ranging from arnd 10:1 across the SE to as much as
15:1 over the piedmont. This translates mainly to an advsry
level event with amts ranging from inch or less east of i95, 1-2
inches along the i95 corridor, 2 to 4 inches across the
piedmont (given the higher slrs). Will hold off on headlines for
one more cycle, as it appears models are starting to click into
agreement. Advisories will likely be needed for a good part of
the CWA given timing.

Behind the system, departing upper trough will usher in another
quick burst of arctic air for Wed night into Thursday. Lows
Wednesday night back down into the teens to around 20. Could see
some high single digits possible inland Wed night.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
Pattern change looks to occur during the medium range period with a
significant warmup expected through the upcoming weekend early next
week. It will still be on the cold side Thu night with sfc high
pressure centered across the deep south, and one last upper trough
moving SE through the great lakes and off the new england coast fri
morning. Mostly clear skies will prevail over the local area with
lows mainly in the 20s though depending on remaining snow cover,
some upper teens will be possible across interior southern va.

Latest gfs ECMWF cmc depict the upper trough moving well off the new
england coast Fri with a broad upper level ridge building over the
eastern CONUS Fri aftn through the weekend. Expect continued dry
conditions with warming temperatures, highs in the upper 40s lower
50s fri, rising well into the 50s (possibly near 60f) sat, and into
the 60s (except at the immediate coast eastern shore) for sun. Lows
fri night Sat am in the mid 20s to mid 30s, and Sat night Sun am in
the 30s to around 40f. Some timing differences arise by sun
night mon, but overall expect increasing clouds ahead of the next
front Sun night and will carry a chc for showers Mon mon night. Mild
with lows in the 40s and highs Mon mainly in the 60s.

Aviation 07z Tuesday through Saturday
Wide variety of conditions tonight with primarily ifr to lifr
ceilings for the eastern half of the CWA and mainly clear
skiesVFR west of i-95. Fog has also formed mainly east of i-95
across the area of low ceilings, fog may be locally dense at
times. Conditions slowly improve during the day today with lower
ceilings expected to linger near the coast through the early
afternoon. Conditions will deteriorate once again Tuesday night
as a potent upper level trough brings thickening and lowering
clouds. Light winds will average 5 knots or less for the most
part which will tend to keep an onshore flow at the immediate
coast, but shifting to the S well inland.

Outlook: expect flight restrictions on Wed with snow showers as
clipper and associated cold front crosses the region. Clearing
wed night with breezy N winds near the coast. PredominateVFR
then likely Thu Fri as the trough ejects NE offshore.

Marine
Late this aftn, ~1048mb high pressure is centered over ern
canada, and was ridging to the ssw along the piedmont. Also,
weak low pressure was well off the mid atlc coast. This
combination was still resulting in a nne wind of 10-20 kt
acrs the waters, with a few gusts near 25 kt just off the NE nc
coastal waters. Seas were ranging fm near 4 ft nearshore, to as
high as 8 ft out around 20 nm. Scas are in effect until 7 pm
this evening for the mouth of the ches bay and currituck snd,
and until 15z Tue for seas for the coastal waters. The wind
should diminish by tue, as a weak surface ridge settles near
the coast. A surface cold front crosses the coast Tue night,
with strong CAA lagging behind until the upper trough arrives
wed evening into early thu. The wind is expected to become n
10-20 kt wed, and then NW 15-25 kt Wed night into early thu.

Sca conditions are likely for wind and seas. High pressure
settles over the area by Thu aftn and Thu night, and then
slides off the southeast coast fri.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Dense fog advisory until 10 am est this morning for anz632>634-
636>638.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est this morning for anz650-
652-654-656-658.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Lkb mam
short term... Mam
long term... Lkb
aviation... Ajb lkb
marine... Tmg


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 6 mi37 min N 11 G 13 36°F 38°F1029.3 hPa
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 7 mi25 min 40°F5 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 13 mi40 min 42°F6 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 23 mi43 min NNW 8 G 13 37°F 41°F1029.2 hPa
44095 31 mi37 min 46°F8 ft
41062 39 mi85 min 14 G 19 49°F1029.1 hPa (-0.9)

Wind History for Duck, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
Last
24hr
N20
G26
N21
G27
N25
N24
G29
N25
N24
N23
N20
N21
N23
N19
G23
N20
N18
N18
N21
N18
G22
N17
N17
N17
N16
N16
N13
G16
N11
N12
1 day
ago
N25
G31
N27
N28
N22
G31
N24
G30
N23
G28
N24
N21
G26
N22
N23
G28
N23
N20
N20
G25
N20
G26
N20
G26
N23
G29
N22
G29
N25
N21
G27
N22
G27
N19
G29
N23
N22
G27
N23
G29
2 days
ago
SW13
G19
SW12
G15
SW13
SW11
G14
SW13
G16
SW10
G13
W9
G13
N23
N24
N25
N28
N25
N26
N22
G27
N21
N22
N20
N20
G26
N24
N25
N26
G32
N30

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC6 mi30 minno data0.75 miFog/Mist0°F0°F%1029.1 hPa
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC12 mi30 minN 80.50 miFog35°F35°F100%1029.8 hPa

Wind History from FFA (wind in knots)
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
Last 24hrN10
G20
N9
G18
N9
G17
N10
G19
N8
G17
N10
G23
N10
G17
N10
G16
----------Calm--------------------
1 day agoN11
G21
N11
G19
N11
G20
N11
G22
N12
G22
N10
G21
N9
G17
N14
G21
N9
G16
N10
G17
N13
G23
N8
G22
N11
G20
N7
G19
N8
G20
N10
G20
N12
G20
N10
G18
N11
G20
N12
G20
N9
G18
N11
G18
N9
G19
N10
G19
2 days agoSW8
G19
SW8SW5CalmSW3SW6SW6SW6W8W7N10
G17
N10
G20
N12
G19
N8
G17
N8
G22
N9
G20
N8
G18
N9
G20
N9
G18
N10
G17
N11
G18
N9
G21
N10
G20
N10
G23

Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Kitty Hawk (ocean)
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:27 AM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:44 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:50 AM EST     3.49 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:20 PM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:03 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:12 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:05 PM EST     2.67 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0-00.311.92.83.33.53.22.71.80.90.3-000.41.11.92.52.72.52.11.50.7

Tide / Current Tables for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Duck Pier
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:31 AM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:44 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:55 AM EST     3.64 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:23 PM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:03 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:12 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:11 PM EST     2.78 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.10.41.122.93.53.63.42.921.10.400.10.51.11.92.52.82.72.31.70.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (2,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.