Thursday, January17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Southern Shores, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 5:16PM Thursday January 17, 2019 3:28 AM EST (08:28 UTC) Moonrise 1:58PMMoonset 3:19AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ150 S Of Currituck Beach Light To Oregon Inlet Nc Out 20 Nm- 101 Am Est Thu Jan 17 2019
Rest of tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 4 ft. Dominant period 11 seconds.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. A chance of showers.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds.
Fri night..NE winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..E winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming S 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..SW winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming nw. Seas 5 to 7 ft, building to 6 to 9 ft. Showers, then a chance of showers and snow.
Mon..NW winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southern Shores, NC
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location: 36.1, -75.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 170720
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
220 am est Thu jan 17 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure tracks through the ohio valley today then onto new
england by Friday. An arctic cold front crosses the area
Sunday, followed by dry and much colder weather Sunday night
through Monday.

Near term through today
As of 215 am est Thursday...

hi pres to the N shifts E into new england today. Onshore low
level flow combined with advancing moisture to the W results
bkn-ovc cigs. Can't rule out a late day patchy -ra w... -ra -sn
far NW areas late as WAA aloft kicks in. Highs around 40f N to
around 50f across interior NE nc.

Short term tonight through Saturday
As of 215 am est Thursday...

lo pres tracks ene from the oh valley tonight then into SRN new
england fri. The advancing warm front lifts N into across the
fa by late tonight early Fri W the trailing cold front pushing
e and off the coast fri. Thermal profiles continue to suggest
possible mixed ptype (ra sn) far N and ne... Little no accum expected
attm. Otw... Occasional -ra expected... Ending Fri morning on the
ern shore. Lows Thu night from the l30s N to the u30s- around
40f in far SE va-ne nc. Vrb clouds or becoming partly sunny fri
w highs in the u40s-around 50f on the ERN shore to the m-u50s
from central va to NE nc.

Saturday will be warm as well with increasing moisture levels and
southerly winds ahead of a powerful area of low pressure approaching
from the west. Generally mid 50s across the south ranging to the low
40s across the northwest. Increasing chances for rain will spread
eastward by Saturday afternoon.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
As of 135 am est Thursday...

sharp amplification of trough aloft translates E through the
ern CONUS Sat night-mon... Bringing the coldest air of the
winter so far into the central ERN conus. Lo pres will track
from the lower ms valley tn valley Sat to the NE CONUS sun... W
a trailing arctic cold front cross the local area (on sun).

Deep layered moisture ahead of accompanying the frontal passage
will bring widespread rain across the local area Sat night into
into early Sun afternoon. 00z 17 gfs ECMWF have similar timing
attm. The cold front reaches the coast by Sun afternoon... W
much colder arctic air crashing into the area... Chasing the
moisture as it heads off the coast. Continuing to up the trend
toward much colder air for Sun afternoon by emphasizing highlighting
sharply falling temperatures. Ra mixing W or changing to a
period of sn (or snsh) from W to E (all the way to the coast)
continues to be a real possibility. Ooz 17 GEFS mean sn accums
avg 0.1-0.5" area wide... Last to fall from the ERN shore
through coastal SE va-ne nc by early Sun evening. Potential
remains high for a "flash freeze" Sun afternoon early evening
due to the rapidly falling temperatures to or blo freezing w
lingering pcpn (sn) and or wet conditions (due to ra).

Lows Sat night around 40f far N and NW to the u40s-l50s
se. Highs Sun in the m40s NW to 55-60f in SE va-ne nc... Though
temperatures are expected to fall in the afternoon... Reaching
the u20s nw... L-m30s in most other places by Sun evening.

Much colder with any pcpn ending arnd midnight Sun night, then
dry, brisk and cold mon. Lows Sun night will range fm the mid
teens to the lower 20s. Highs on Mon only ranging fm the mid 20s
to lower 30s (wind chills down to the single digits to around
20). Dry wx with slight moderation in temps on tue. Lows mon
night 15-20, except lower 20s right along the coast in SE va-
ne nc. Highs on Tue will range fm the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Another low pressure area and associated frontal boundary will
approach fm the west during wed, bringing another chance for
rain showers, esply Wed aftn into Wed night. Lows Tue night in
the upper 20s to mid 30s. Highs on Wed will range fm the upper
40s to upper 50s.

Aviation 07z Thursday through Monday
As of 130 am est Thursday...

vfr CIGS through the balance of the 06z 17 TAF forecast period.

As lo pres tracks through the oh valley in combination W light
onshore lo level flow will result in bkn-ovc CIGS mainly aoa
3-4 kft. Winds 10 kt or less fm the NE will become E or se
during the day. That low pressure area tracks by N of the fa
tonight into fri... Producing mainly -ra W the prob for mixed
ra sn or just a little sn INVOF sby. A stronger cold front
crosses the region Sat night and Sun (accompanied by widespread
rain possibly ending as snow, and flight restrictions due to
cigs vsbys).

Marine
As of 220 am est Thursday...

high pressure builds in from the north today. Winds will be nne 10-
15 kt this morning, then diminish and become ene 5-10 kt this aftn.

Seas will generally be 2-3 ft, with 1-2 ft waves in the bay. A weak
area of low pressure will track across the area Thursday night, with
the wind becoming SE then ssw with speeds of 10-15 kt. The wind
shifts to NW Friday behind the low, and then turns NE Friday night.

A strong low pressure system approaches from the SW Saturday and
tracks immediately N of the area Saturday night. Strong pressure
falls combined with a strong gradient could result in a brief period
where a sse wind increases to 20-30kt, especially n. Strong CAA and
pressure rises then follow this boundary Sunday aftn night into
Monday with gales likely for at least the bay and ocean (gusts to 40
kt), and no less than strong scas for the remaining waters in a nw
wind. Seas build to 5-8ft Sunday into Sunday night. An arctic blast
of cold air will follow the strong cold front Sunday night with low
temps dropping into the low-mid 20s over water. This coupled with
gale force winds will most likely pose a threat of freezing spray.

Conditions slowly improve late Monday into Tuesday.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Alb lkb
near term... Alb
short term... Alb rhr
long term... Alb tmg
aviation... Alb tmg
marine... Ajz jdm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 6 mi59 min NE 17 G 19 43°F 46°F1025.6 hPa
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 7 mi59 min 46°F4 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 13 mi44 min 47°F4 ft
44086 17 mi34 min 48°F4 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 23 mi59 min NNE 13 G 16 44°F 46°F1025.3 hPa
44095 31 mi43 min 47°F4 ft

Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC6 mi49 minNE 710.00 miFair41°F32°F72%1025.4 hPa
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC12 mi49 minENE 1010.00 miFair41°F34°F77%1026.1 hPa

Wind History from FFA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmSW3SW4SW4SW5SW7CalmW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5N4NE4CalmNE4NE5NE4NE4NE8
1 day agoCalmNW3NW4NW4CalmNW3NW4CalmW4N5N3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW10
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CalmNW4NW3NW4CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:19 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:30 AM EST     3.33 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:05 AM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:57 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:52 PM EST     2.68 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:13 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:58 PM EST     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.42.22.93.33.32.92.31.60.80.30.10.20.71.42.12.52.72.41.91.20.4-0.1-0.3-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina
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Duck Pier
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:19 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:36 AM EST     3.57 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:06 AM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:57 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:56 PM EST     2.76 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:13 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:58 PM EST     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.42.233.53.53.22.71.91.10.40.20.30.71.322.62.82.62.11.40.60-0.20

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.