Friday, July28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Southern Shores, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 8:14PM Friday July 28, 2017 9:07 AM EDT (13:07 UTC) Moonrise 10:35AMMoonset 10:41PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ150 S Of Currituck Beach Light To Oregon Inlet Nc Out 20 Nm- 710 Am Edt Fri Jul 28 2017
Today..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms this morning, then a chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Showers and tstms likely.
Sat..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Showers and tstms likely.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, except 3 to 4 ft near shore. Dominant period 6 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..N winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms, mainly in the morning.
Sun night..N winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..N winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Tue..N winds around 10 kt, becoming s. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southern Shores, NC
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location: 36.1, -75.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 281115
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
715 am edt Fri jul 28 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure affects the region today through Saturday... With a
cold front slowly pushing across the region tonight into
Saturday morning. The front pushes southeast of the area by
Sunday with an upper low sitting overhead through at least
Monday night.

Near term through tonight
Lee trough tightens and develops into a meso-low late in the day
as a cold front drops down from the nnw. Ongoing convection
early this morning should primarily move offshore shortly after
sunrise with pockets of showers lingering through mid morning.

After which, daytime heating within the warm sector ahead of the
front will destabilize the atmosphere and allow more storms to
develop this aftn; initially where shortwave energy interacts
with the lee trough and then as conditions become more unstable.

Meanwhile, an open trough over the upper great lakes will dig
into the ohio valley today and help to slowly push the cold
front across the area from late this aftn through tonight.

Widespread thunderstorms should be anticipated tonight. Slow
movement of the front, weak sfc-upper level winds, small mbe
vectors, and pwats increasing from roughly 1.50 inches to around
2.00 inches (or 150-175 percent of normal) by this evening, all
indicate that heavy rainfall will impact the region.

Additionally as the upper low interacts with the sfc meso-low, a
deformation zone will develop and enhance rainfall rates in an
already moisture- laden atmosphere... Primarily across the
maryland lower eastern shore, northern neck, middle peninsula,
and accomack county in va. Have really ramped up 6hr QPF amounts
in these areas (00z model guidance in better agreement) and
expanded the flash flood watch to include the aforementioned va
areas. While there is still some uncertainty about how far south
the deformation axis will set up, the general trend keeps the
best area for enhancement across the north. Storm total qpf
amounts from today through 18z Sat range from 2.00 to almost
3.50 inches within flash flood watch area. Convective processes
will be capable of pushing these amounts higher locally under
stronger, slow-moving storm cores. SPC now has the mid atlantic
region within a marginal risk for severe storms today tonight.

As such, any thunderstorms that develop in this timeframe will
be capable of producing very heavy rainfall, locally strong wind
gusts, frequent lightning, and localized flooding.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night
The cold front is expected to stall over far SE va NE nc on
Saturday before shifting southeast of the area late Saturday
night. Overall, sfc high pressure builds across the midwest as
the upper low opening trough sits over the mid atlantic coast
through at least Monday night before shifting ewd and away from
the coast. Showers storms will be focused along the coast with
more widely scattered storms possible farther inland due to
elevated lift present with the upper low. Precip chances
expected to wane late Saturday night into Sunday as the front
gets shunted farther se. Once again, primary threats from any
thunderstorms Sat sat night will be moderate to heavy rainfall,
locally strong wind gusts, and frequent lightning.

Widespread precipitation, cloud cover, and cooler canadian air
with the upper trough will keep temperatures 5-10 degrees below
normal Saturday. Highs Sat in the mid-upper 70s NW to
lower 80s se. Low temperatures cool off nicely with lows each
night in the lower 60s NW to mid-upper 60s se.

Long term Monday through Thursday
Low confidence forecast early next week as the models continue to
offer up different solutions on just how slow and far off the coast
the cut off low tracks. Rather breezy over eastern sections with
continued marine issues early next week. Otw, high pressure over
the mts keeps the rest of the fa dry. Highs Mon in the upr 70s-
lwr 80s except mid 70s at the beaches. Lows in the 60s to near
70 sern beach areas.

High pressure builds across the region for the mid week period.

Highs Tue in the mid-upr 80s except upr 70s at the beaches. Lows
in the mid 60s-lwr 70s. Highs Wed Thu 85-90. Moisture returns
from the west Thu afternoon. Added slight chc diurnal pops to
the piedmont.

Aviation 11z Friday through Tuesday
A lee trough tightens and develops into a meso-low late in the
day as a cold front drops down from the nnw. Ongoing convection
early this morning should primarily move offshore shortly after
sunrise with pockets of showers lingering through mid morning.

After which, scattered storms will develop this aftn and become
more widespread tonight as the cold front slowly tracks across
the area. Storm movement will be slow, therefore the main
impacts to airfield operations today will be very heavy
rainfall, locally strong wind gusts, frequent lightning,
localized flooding (best potential at ksby), and ifr CIGS vis
(brief periods of lifr possible under stronger storm cores).

The cold front is expected to stall over far SE va NE nc on
Saturday before shifting southeast of the area late Saturday
night. Overall, sfc high pressure builds across the midwest as
an upper low sits over the mid atlantic coast through at least
Monday night before shifting ewd and away from the coast.

Showers storms will be focused along the coast with more widely
scattered storms possible farther inland due to elevated lift
present with the upper low. Precip chances expected to wane late
Saturday night into Sunday as the front gets shunted farther se.

Once again, primary threats from any thunderstorms Sat sat night
will be moderate to heavy rainfall, locally strong wind gusts,
and frequent lightning. With rainfall intensity waning, any
brief cig vis reductions will likely be MVFR.

Marine
Relatively quiet in the near term for the marine area, some
enhancement of the winds with showers tstms with brief gusts to
20-25 kt, but outside of any convection winds are mainly 15 kt
or less. Similar conditions through today into this evening
with S SW winds mainly 10-15 kt outside of convection, slowly
shifting to the W NW late tonight early sat. Seas avg 2-4 ft and
bay waves up to 2 ft.

The main story continues to be a strong cold frontal passage
sat Sat night (by mid summer standards). Latest nam GFS ecwmf gem
have now trended much closer with respect to timing and the
overall position of the primary features, lending to increasing
confidence in the marine forecast. At least SCA headlines will
be needed, but given that it will be a late 3rd 4th period (and
beyond) event, its too early to issue any SCA headlines with the
morning package. Did issue a gale watch for coastal waters N of
cape charles for late Sat sat night given an area of 850 mb
u-anomaly (easterly) winds of 4 std dev from nj to the delmarva.

If it does occur this would be of the marginal gale variety
(i.E. Sustained winds 25-30 kt with gusts to 35 kt). In any
event, a decent surged noted to develop by Sat aftn from N to s
across the waters as sfc low deepens along just off the delmarva
coast, followed by strong caa, especially Sat night. Seas build
to 7-10 ft for coastal waters by Sat night sun, with 4-5 ft
waves for the bay.

Conditions slowly improve Sun night Monday, but ongoing sca's
will persist due to lingering NE swell will likely result in
marine issues through at least late Mon or tue.

Tides coastal flooding
Water levels have slowly diminished with no additional
statements needed. However, at least minor flooding may be
possible Sunday Mon along the coast and in the lower bay with
the strong N NE flow behind the departing sfc low and associated
cold front.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Flash flood watch from 2 pm edt this afternoon through
Saturday afternoon for mdz021>025.

Nc... None.

Va... Flash flood watch from 2 pm edt this afternoon through
Saturday afternoon for vaz064-075>078-084>086-099-517>522.

Marine... Gale watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night
for anz650-652-654.

Synopsis... Bmd
near term... Bmd
short term... Bmd
long term... Mpr
aviation... Bmd
marine... Lkb
tides coastal flooding... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 6 mi50 min N 5.1 G 6 74°F 62°F1011.9 hPa
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 7 mi68 min 67°F2 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 13 mi63 min 73°F3 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 23 mi56 min SW 12 G 16 80°F 79°F1011.7 hPa
44095 31 mi50 min 76°F3 ft
41062 39 mi68 min SE 14 G 18 79°F 78°F1012.5 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC6 mi83 minN 07.00 miLight Rain77°F72°F86%1011.5 hPa
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC12 mi83 minWSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F73°F88%1011.8 hPa

Wind History from FFA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS7S5SW4SW5S4CalmSW7SW5
G14
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1 day agoE5E8CalmNE3CalmNE6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN8
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NE5NE6CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E4CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:58 AM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:35 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:09 PM EDT     3.51 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:26 PM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:41 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.53.12.51.60.70.1-0.10.10.71.62.63.23.53.432.31.50.80.50.50.91.52.32.9

Tide / Current Tables for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina
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Duck Pier
Click for Map
Fri -- 06:01 AM EDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:35 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:14 PM EDT     3.61 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:29 PM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:41 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.63.32.61.70.80.200.20.71.62.53.33.63.53.12.41.50.80.50.50.81.42.33

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.