Saturday, May26, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Southern Shores, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:49AMSunset 8:14PM Saturday May 26, 2018 12:26 AM EDT (04:26 UTC) Moonrise 4:24PMMoonset 3:18AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ150 S Of Currituck Beach Light To Oregon Inlet Nc Out 20 Nm- 936 Pm Edt Fri May 25 2018
Overnight..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds.
Sat night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds.
Sun..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds.
Sun night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Showers likely.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely.
Tue..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southern Shores, NC
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location: 36.1, -75.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 260143
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
943 pm edt Fri may 25 2018

Synopsis
Dry weather is expected through tonight under the influence of
high pressure off the mid-atlantic coast. Low pressure over the
gulf of mexico will gradually bring a return of moisture through
the upcoming holiday weekend, mainly in the form of afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
As of 930 pm edt Friday...

made a few tweaks to dew points and cloud cover. Delayed
increasing clouds unti later tonight per current satellite
imagery. Otherwise, no changes needed to afternoon forecast.

Previous discussion... High pressure has shifted a bit further
offshore this afternoon allowing a return of ssw flow over the
local area and warmer temps. Other than scattered CU in parts of
the area this afternoon, the weather is otherwise quiet with
all shower activity relegated to the carolinas and the mountains
of SW va. Little change is expected in the weather tonight with
the high offshore and light ssw winds in place. Mainly clear
with lows in the 60s to around 70. Higher dew pts and SW flow
should mostly preclude fog formation early Saturday morning.

However, it cannot be completely ruled out for locations such as
phf akq ecg.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Monday
As of 330 pm edt Friday...

weak upper ridging aloft and southerly low-level flow will be
our predominate weather pattern through memorial day. This will
result in a continued increase in humidity locally through
Sunday, due to sustained southerly flow from the gomex, and a
mainly diurnal chance of showers and thunderstorms both Saturday
and Sunday. By Monday there are indications that a little
deeper feed of sub-tropical moisture will make a run at
central eastern nc and perhaps far southern portions of va.

While locally heavy rain will be possible with the strongest
tstms Sat Sun (pws 1.75-2.00"), the best opportunity for
widespread moderate heavy downpours and potential flooding
should hold off until Monday for the aforementioned areas as a
more pronounced area of sub-tropical moisture (pws increasing
to 2.0-2.3") arrives. As far as pops go, will carry high chc to
likely (50-60%) along west of a line from emv-xsa-cge Sat aftn,
lowering to slight chc (~20%) for coastal NE nc. Similar pops
Sunday but with highest pops oriented a bit more N ne. High
chc likely pops (50-65%) along north of a line from fvx-fyj-wal,
lowering to slight chc (~20%) over the northern obx. By Monday,
will generally have chc pops everywhere (30-50%), but likely
pops (55-65%) along south of va hwy 58.

Temps will remain warm Sat Sun with highs generally in the
mid upr 80s, except upr 70s to low 80s immediate coast. A bit
cooler Monday with increased cloud cover and pcpn chances. Highs
in the mid 70s to low 80s. Lows remaining in the 60s to low 70s.

Long term Monday night through Friday
As of 330 pm edt Friday...

this period to be governed by the moisture and remnant low track of
sub-tropical storm alberto. After stalling across the gulf states
mon, the system is progged to drift slowly NE into the tn valley
tue Wed with the remnant low pushing NE along or just east of the
applach mts Thu fri.

Kept low chc pops (20-40%) across the region Mon nite thru tues nite
then increased to high chc pops (40-50%) Wed thru fri. Highs tues
mid-upr 80s, low-mid 80s Wed Thu fri. Lows mid 60s-lwr 70s.

Aviation 02z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 730 pm edt Friday...

vfr conditions anticipated through the 00z TAF period. Light
s winds overnight will increase and become a bit gusty on
Saturday, but gusts should remain in the 15-20 kt range. Patchy
fog (MVFR vsby?) is possible at kphf kecg early Saturday
morning, but confidence is low, with most guidance suggesting
potential is a bit better in the piedmont. However, with dew
points increasing and light winds, it cannot be ruled out.

Outlook... Expect moisture to increase for the upcoming holiday
weekend with scattered showers t-storms possible each
afternoon evening from sat-mon. Periodic flight restrictions
will be possible in around tstms.

Marine
As of 330 pm edt Friday...

no flags as SW winds around the bermuda high dominate through the
holiday weekend. Expect some south channeling at times across
the ches bay, otw winds AOB 15 kts. Seas 2-3 ft with 1-2 ft
waves.

Flow becomes more SE by mid week in advance of alberto's remnant
low, the SW behind the lows departure. Speeds below SCA levels.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 330 pm edt Friday...

south channeling up the ches bay will likely have levels
topping out just below minor flooding at bishops head. Thus,
went ahead and issued a coastal flood statement for this
evening's high tide there.

Climate
As of 330 pm edt Friday...

* ric monthly rainfall total through 5 24 is 10.25" which now
ranks as the wettest may on record. (breaking the old record
of 9.79" in 2016). (precipitation records date back to 1880).

* sby monthly rainfall total through 5 24 is 8.63" which
already ranks as 3rd wettest may on record (wettest is 10.38"
in 1948). (precipitation records date back to 1906).

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jdm
near term... Jdm wrs
short term... Jdm mam
long term... Mpr
aviation... Jdm wrs
marine... Mpr
tides coastal flooding...

climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 6 mi39 min SSW 16 G 19 76°F 68°F1015.3 hPa
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 7 mi57 min 72°F2 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 13 mi42 min 72°F2 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 23 mi45 min S 17 G 19 77°F 80°F1016.1 hPa
44095 31 mi39 min 71°F2 ft
41062 39 mi87 min 9.7 G 12 1017.7 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Duck, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC6 mi57 minSSW 710.00 miFair74°F69°F85%1015.9 hPa
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC12 mi52 minSW 1110.00 miFair75°F69°F85%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from FFA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5SE4SE8S6S6S6
G14
S6S6S7S3SW4CalmSW7
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmN6NE3N6N7N5NE6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSW5SW4SW7SW6SW7SW8
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CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:17 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 05:50 AM EDT     3.01 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:59 AM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:19 PM EDT     3.78 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.30.91.72.42.932.82.31.50.70.1-0.10.10.81.72.73.43.83.73.22.41.40.6

Tide / Current Tables for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina
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Duck Pier
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:02 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:17 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:00 AM EDT     3.05 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:00 PM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:29 PM EDT     3.85 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.20.81.62.42.93.12.92.31.50.70.1-0.10.10.71.62.63.43.83.83.42.51.50.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.