Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Southern Shores, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 4:58PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 11:33 PM EST (04:33 UTC) Moonrise 12:25PMMoonset 10:56PM Illumination 46% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ150 S Of Currituck Beach Light To Oregon Inlet Nc Out 20 Nm- 1001 Pm Est Wed Nov 14 2018
.gale warning in effect through Thursday afternoon...
Overnight..E winds 25 to 30 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt late this evening and early morning. Seas 6 to 8 ft, building to 7 to 10 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. A slight chance of drizzle late this evening and early morning. A chance of showers.
Thu..E winds 25 to 35 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Thu night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W 25 to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 7 to 10 ft. NEar shore, seas 7 to 9 ft, subsiding to 6 to 7 ft after midnight. Dominant period 9 seconds. A slight chance of showers.
Fri..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 9 ft, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft in the afternoon. NEar shore, seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 4 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 4 ft.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southern Shores, NC
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location: 36.1, -75.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 150240
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
940 pm est Wed nov 14 2018

Synopsis
A complex area of low pressure over the southeast affects the
region Thursday. High pressure and dry conditions return Friday
into the weekend.

Near term through Thursday
As of 930 pm est Wednesday...

hi pres was located INVOF new england this evening while complex
lo pres (one area INVOF tn oh valleys... The other near coastal
sc) will beginning to spread pcpn NE toward the mid-atlantic
region. Cold relatively dry air remains locked over the local
area as CIGS gradually lower and the pcpn is beginning to
spread in. All sfc based wet bulbs remain above freezing
attm... However W dew points mostly in the 20s... As -ra
begins... Temps wet bulbs expected to fall a bit. Given light
intensity to the initial few hours of pcpn... Have expanded -ip
mention E into more of central scentral va overnight - though
won't discount very short period W -ip just about anywhere when
pcpn starts. Will leave the winter wx advisory for the areas
from prince edward- western louisa as those areas will have the
highest potential for -zr light glaze (esp on elevated surfaces.

At this time, wintry precip is not expected in the
immediate ric metro... Except for perhaps a very brief period of
sleet at the onset. Still... It will be a cold rain in the metro,
with temps only expected in the mid-upr 30s Thu morning.

Otherwise, across the remainder of the area expect moderate to
locally heavy rain to fall late tonight through tomorrow with many
areas seeing 1-2 inches. The heaviest rain will fall across the far
east near the best frontogenetic forcing and low pres track. Latest
eps and GEFS guidance suggests that the probability is quite low for
>2 inches of rain, however with the already saturated ground, it
will not take much for minor flooding and will continue the flood
watch for the entire area. Thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled
out across far NE nc with that area being near the low track, but
for now will leave out given the relatively poor lapse rates and
being a very small chance. Latest guidance suggests that the rain
will start to move out late Thu aftn as a dry slot moves in from the
sw.

Lastly, it will become quite windy especially at the coast with
strong e-ne winds developing in the pres gradient between the
low to the south and the strong high over the NE states. Will
issue a wind advisory for much of the area close to the coast
for Thursday.

Lows tonight will range from around 32 degs f NW to the l40s
se. Highs Thursday will range from the mid-upr 30s far NW to
temps in the mid-upr 60s across the far se.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday
As of 315 pm est Wednesday...

after the low moves out Thu night, expect high pressure to build in
for Friday and into Saturday with mostly sunny skies. Temps will
still be cooler than average with the mean trough and lower than
average heights over the east coast. Temps will rise into the
50s during the day and drop to 30s at night.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
As of 315 pm est Wednesday...

much quieter weather expected during the extended period. Sfc high
pressure centered over the area early Sunday morning weakens during
the day on sun, with dry seasonable weather expected throughout the
area. A weak upper-level shortwave approaches the area on late
Sunday-Monday (coupled with a sfc cold front). Not much in the way
of rain expected with the fropa, but have pops of 15-30% for eastern
portions of the area late Sun night-mon (best rain chances will be
in coastal NE nc). NW flow aloft will prevail from Mon pm through at
least midweek, with mainly dry weather and temperatures a few
degrees below seasonal averages. Another weak upper level shortwave
may swing through the mid-atlantic on wed. The GFS is showing a few
showers moving across the area, but the ECMWF cmc keep us dry.

Decided not to add any mention of rain to the forecast attm.

Forecast highs Sunday range from the low-mid 50s NW to around 60 in
in SE va NE nc. The cooler air lags behind the front a bit, so highs
on Mon will still be in the 50s to near 60. Cooler on Tue wed, with
highs in the upper 40s to near 50 north mid 50s south. Lows Sunday
night in the mid-upper 30s inland low-mid 40s near the coast. Cooler
on both Monday and Tuesday night with lows ranging from ~30 NW to
~40 in coastal SE va NE nc.

Aviation 03z Thursday through Monday
As of 645 pm est Wednesday...

vfr conditions everywhere (w bkn-ovc CIGS above 10k feet) this
evening with sfc ridging extending from ERN pa southward into
va nc. Low pressure over the southeast will move toward the
region tonight and track across the area on Thursday. Moderate
to occasionally heavy rain will quickly overspread the terminals
between 08-13z Thu and will last through at least late aftn.

This will cause rapidly deteriorating conditions throughout the
entire region by Thu morning. Visibilities will be in the
MVFR ifr range due to the ra, with widespread prevailing ifr
cigs during the day on Thursday. May even see lifr CIGS at times
(most likely at ric). A line of +ra (w a slight chc of an
embedded tstm) may affect ecg Thursday aftn right before the
rain ends. Went with prevailing +ra from 19-22z to reflect this.

Elsewhere, expect the rain to end from SW to NE during the late
aftn evening. In addition, east to northeast winds will gust to
as high as 35 kt near the coast as the low approaches. NE winds
will still gust to ~20 kt inland.

Outlook... The low moves out Thu night with improving conditions
by Friday.VFR conditions expected for all sites Fri through
the weekend.

Marine
As of 415 pm est Wednesday...

high pressure centered N of the region has temporarily allowed
the pressure gradient to slacken enough for winds to now avg
10-15 kt except for 15-20 kt over southern waters. Conditions
will rapidly deteriorate later tonight from S to N however as
secondary area of low pressure intensifies along the carolina
coast and lifts nne with strong sfc high over new england.

Replaced the ramp-up SCA headlines with gale warnings (and
upgraded to gales for the york rappahannock river). The only
zone remaining in SCA is the upper james. With pressure falls of
~15 mb in 6 hrs progged from 15 to 21z thu, winds are expected
to reach gale force by early Thursday morning over the south and
by mid late morning farther north. E NE winds will likely gust
to 35-40 kt in the bay and southern coastal waters, and a little
higher to 40-45 kt on the ocean N of CAPE charles. Seas will
increase to 8-12 feet south and to 10-15 ft by late thu
aftn evening off the eastern shore. Bay waves will avg 4 to 6
feet with higher waves at the mouth of the bay.

A brief lull in the winds is expected late Thursday night as
the low moves off the mid-atlc coast. Winds turn to the W nw
Thursday night into Friday morning and potentially gust to gale
force once again over the coastal waters. Have extended the
gales N of CAPE charles through 10 am Fri morning for now
(elsewhere it looks more marginal so did not extend the gales
beyond thu). Winds will remain in the 20 to 30 knot range into
Friday afternoon. Winds and seas will remain stirred up into
early Saturday morning, likely requiring additional sca
headlines. Calmer conditions return for the weekend as high
pressure settles over the region.

Hydrology
As of 315 pm est Wednesday...

river flood warnings remain in effect for stony creek on the
nottoway, and mattoax on the appomattox, lawrenceville on the
meherrin and sebrell on the nottoway. Expect additional rises
and possible warnings on local rivers given the expected
rainfall Thursday.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 415 pm est Wednesday...

issued high surf advisories along the entire coast on thu.

Strong surge of E NE winds on Thu will bring cause tidal
departures to rapidly increase Thu morning. However, tidal
departures are currently minimal (and actually negative in upper
portions of the bay). Thus, even with 1.5 to 2 ft rises in
departures from current levels, most locations will only
approach or just barely get to minor flood thresholds. The high
tide of concern will not be until Thu aftn (or perhaps the
following tide early Fri morning for the ocean side of the md
eastern shore). Will continue to watch trends overnight and thu
morning but have not issued any coastal flood advisories at this
time.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Flood watch from 7 am est Thursday through Thursday evening
for mdz021>025.

High surf advisory from 10 am Thursday to midnight est
Thursday night for mdz025.

Wind advisory from 10 am to 7 pm est Thursday for mdz024-025.

Nc... Flood watch from 7 am est Thursday through Thursday evening
for ncz012>017-030>032-102.

High surf advisory from 4 am to 7 pm est Thursday for ncz102.

Wind advisory from 4 am to 1 pm est Thursday for ncz017-102.

Va... Flood watch from 7 am est Thursday through Thursday evening
for vaz048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-
509>525.

Winter weather advisory from 2 am to 10 am est Thursday for
vaz048-060-061-509.

Wind advisory from 7 am to 4 pm est Thursday for vaz095-098-
100-525.

High surf advisory from 4 am to 7 pm est Thursday for vaz098.

High surf advisory from 10 am Thursday to midnight est
Thursday night for vaz099-100.

Wind advisory from 10 am to 7 pm est Thursday for vaz099.

Marine... Gale warning until 10 am est Friday for anz650-652-654.

Gale warning until 7 pm est Thursday for anz630>636-656-658.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm est Thursday for anz637.

Gale warning until 4 pm est Thursday for anz638.

Synopsis... Mrd
near term... Alb
short term... Mrd
long term... Eri
aviation... Eri mrd
marine... Lkb
hydrology...

tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 6 mi34 min ENE 22 G 25 52°F 59°F1029.7 hPa (-0.6)
FRFN7 6 mi154 min 5 ft
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 7 mi34 min 61°F7 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 13 mi49 min 62°F6 ft
44086 17 mi39 min 63°F7 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 23 mi34 min NNE 18 G 23 1029 hPa (-0.6)
44095 31 mi48 min 64°F7 ft
41062 39 mi34 min 23 G 27 1029 hPa (-0.9)

Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC6 mi54 minENE 10 G 1610.00 miOvercast51°F39°F66%1029.8 hPa
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC12 mi54 minENE 14 G 2110.00 miOvercast51°F40°F68%1030.1 hPa

Wind History from FFA (wind in knots)
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S3CalmCalmSW5SW5W7W6W5W5NW4CalmN5N7N4N5N7N7
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3NE5CalmE4E3E3NE4E3CalmCalmE4E3SE5SE3SE5SE7

Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:28 AM EST     0.83 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:38 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:46 AM EST     3.32 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:25 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:25 PM EST     0.80 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:56 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.92.62.11.61.10.90.91.21.72.32.93.23.33.12.72.11.51.10.80.81.11.62.22.6

Tide / Current Tables for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina (2)
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Duck Pier
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:28 AM EST     0.78 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:38 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:50 AM EST     3.35 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:25 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:25 PM EST     0.75 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:56 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.92.62.11.61.10.80.81.11.72.32.93.23.33.22.72.11.510.80.81.11.62.22.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.