Sunrise 5:46 AM   Sunset 7:38 PM Moonrise 4:14 AM   Moonset 5:04 PM

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FXUS64 KOHX 051756 AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1256 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

After some patchy morning fog, the area has cleared up with ample sunshine allowing things to feel a little summer-humid-like. A few showers have developed across the Plateau region so far and this will be the weather story for a good chunk of the day. Although we aren't expecting anything decently organized until later tonight when an upper level impulse rolls through, a few isolated showers and maybe some rumbles of thunder will pop up through this afternoon. Most outdoor events should be good, but always keep an eye on that radar in case you don't want to get wet. With all that said, today is shaping up to be a fairly dry one.

As mentioned above, an upper level system will be the main focus for convection tonight as the bulk of the precipitation can be expected after sunset and later. A few storms could produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds, but think this bulk of storms will push through before sunrise. With plenty of moisture around, some showers and a a rumble of thunder will be possible during the day on Monday, but no impacts are expected with Highs a little cooler than today with the extra cloud cover.

LONG TERM
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Tuesday through Wednesday Night is really the main focus for this forecast period as strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated.
Although things are somewhat unclear how they will play out in exact timing and location, scattered storms will develop across the area Tuesday afternoon. However, think the threat for anything strong to potentially severe would come from whatever develops to our northwest and makes it to Middle Tennessee Tuesday Evening and Night. The biggest concern with these storms would be damaging winds and localized flash flooding with any heavy rainfall.

Now how things evolve will be the ultimate question come Wednesday morning as some leftover convection hangs around and upper level forcing moves closer to the area. The best forcing however will be well to the north leaving almost zonal winds aloft. So the timing of things combined with the best instability and shear Wednesday afternoon and evening will be the ultimate question.
Regardless, think this set up for Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday Night is the best set-up for strong to severe thunderstorms that we've had in a month, so definitely something to keep an eye on in the short term. At the very least, there's a damaging wind and flooding threat with a potential tornado threat in the mix as well.

To top things off, although ensembles have very low probabilities of any one location receiving greater than 4 inches during this 3 day timeframe, the ground is wet and any location that gets a training set-up may have some issues with flooding. Luckily by Thursday, this system pushes to the south and ushers in probably our true last taste of spring On Friday just in time for Mother's Day Weekend, before the taste of summer returns and probably remains. So, let's enjoy it!

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Although certainly tstms could occur in vcnty or at terminals before or after these time windows, emphasized thru use of 4 hr TEMPO group time window best tstm impacts at mid state terminal sites thru 06/18Z. Other than CKV where not enough confidence presently because of a greater potential of isolated convection occurrence, mentioned vcnty shwrs at all terminals at least thru 06/03Z with prevailing shwrs then thru 06/18Z. Wind variability probable. Emphasized mean wind direction/speed.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Nashville 66 82 68 85 / 80 70 50 60 Clarksville 65 79 67 83 / 80 80 60 70 Crossville 61 77 62 79 / 50 80 70 70 Columbia 65 82 66 84 / 80 70 50 60 Cookeville 63 79 64 81 / 60 80 60 70 Jamestown 61 77 62 81 / 50 80 70 80 Lawrenceburg 65 82 67 84 / 80 60 50 60 Murfreesboro 65 84 66 85 / 70 70 50 60 Waverly 64 80 67 83 / 80 80 50 70

OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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