Wednesday, April26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rural Hill, TN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:56AMSunset 7:31PM Wednesday April 26, 2017 6:58 AM CDT (11:58 UTC) Moonrise 6:22AMMoonset 7:53PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rural Hill, TN
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location: 36.13, -86.61     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus64 kohx 261123
afdohx
area forecast discussion
national weather service nashville tn
623 am cdt Wed apr 26 2017

Update
For 12z aviation discussion.

Discussion
Very active weather pattern in the cards for middle tennessee
over the next week with three rounds of potentially severe
storms to round out the month of april. For today, some patchy
fog will be possible this morning over mainly eastern zones, but
nothing widespread like yesterday morning is anticipated. Another
beautiful albeit warm spring day is on the way today as
temperatures soar into the 80s by afternoon under mostly clear
skies. LLJ strengthening up to 60 knots later today will bring
increasingly gusty south winds, possibly to near wind advisory
criteria this evening.

Latest models continue to show development of a qlcs to our west
that will race east across our forecast area tonight into Thursday
morning. 00z guidance has sped up timing of the qlcs, with nam
showing line of storms reaching the tennessee river around
midnight give or take an hour. All models continue to weaken the
qlcs as it moves further into our area and outruns the narrow
instability axis, but line remains intense enough that a few
strong to severe storms may occur especially over west and
southwest zones. Although MLCAPE will be on the low side at around
500 j/kg, very intense low level and deep layer shear may allow
for some damaging winds and possibly even a qlcs tornado with the
line before it diminishes significantly by 12z. With models now
faster with the qlcs, all convection should clear the plateau by
18z on Thursday if not sooner so will remove pops from Thursday
afternoon. Still, cooler temperatures are expected on Thursday and
Thursday night in the wake of this system with highs in the 70s
and lows down into the 50s.

For Friday, models continue to show a warm front lifting
northward across the state during the day with dewpoints rising
well into the humid 60s by late afternoon, creating a very
unstable environment south of the boundary with MLCAPE rising as
high as 2500 j/kg per GFS forecast soundings. Lack of a forcing
mechanism and weak cap now looks to delay convection until very
late afternoon or especially Friday evening as an approaching
shortwave trough from the southern plains interacts with the warm
front, with majority of guidance developing numerous showers and
thunderstorms over northwest half or so of the area. High mlcape
combined with forecast strong low level and deep layer shear
suggests several strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible,
with large hail, damaging winds, and even a couple of tornadoes.

Pwats rising above 1.5 inches also suggests a threat for heavy
rainfall and localized flooding. SPC has now highlighted the
northwest half of our area in a slight risk for Friday/Friday
night, with an enhanced risk over far northwest zones.

Convection looks to diminish or lift northward out of middle
tennessee by 12z Saturday morning. Very warm and humid conditions
still expected on Saturday with highs reaching the mid to upper
80s. Atmosphere will remain quite moist and unstable so cannot
rule out a storm or two Saturday afternoon. Main h5 trough also
still anticipated to eject out into the tennessee valley on
Sunday into Sunday night, although latest 00z ECMWF is
considerably slower than previous runs and the 00z gfs. Despite
timing differences, synoptic pattern indicates likely pops are
warranted during this timeframe, with numerous showers and storms
anticipated for all zones. Although MLCAPE will be weaker with
this system versus Friday, strong deep layer shear will still
support yet another risk for potentially severe thunderstorms
this forecast period. Pwats also rising to near the daily maximum
of 1.6 inches indicate heavy rainfall will also be possible on
Sunday into Sunday night. Cooler and drier conditions still look
to return for Monday and Tuesday, but gfs/ecmwf suggest another
system may impact the area by the middle of next week.

Aviation
12z TAF discussion.

Flying conditions will beVFR until showers and storms begin to
affect the terminals tonight. South winds will increase through
the day and by the evening winds will be sustained around 20 kts
with gusts near 30 kts at ckv and bna. Low level jet will increase
to around 50 to 60 kts which would bring ckv and bna near low
level wind shear threshold. Since it is close, mention of wind
shear was left out for now. A weakening line of showers of storms
will begin to affect ckv around 05z. Mentioned -tsra and ckv and
bna. Only mentioned -shra at csv due to the weakening nature of
the line.

Ohx watches/warnings/advisories
None.

Discussion... ... Shamburger
aviation... ... ..Reagan


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Nashville, Nashville International Airport, TN4 mi66 minS 510.00 miA Few Clouds55°F54°F96%1006.5 hPa
Smyrna, Smyrna Airport, TN10 mi63 minSSE 38.00 miFair53°F52°F96%997.3 hPa

Wind History from BNA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS3CalmCalmCalmSE7E8E3S10S6SW7S7SE6S6S4S4S5S6S4S4CalmCalmS4S5
1 day agoN3N6N6N7N4N9
G15
NW3NW6NW6CalmNE6NE4E3CalmCalmCalmS3W3CalmCalmNW5CalmW3Calm
2 days agoNE10N7N13N85NE7N11N12N12N7NW5N10N13
G19
N10N13N12
G20
N8N7N8N5N7NE7N7N7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Nashville, TN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.