Thursday, February21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rural Hill, TN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 5:34PM Thursday February 21, 2019 3:41 PM CST (21:41 UTC) Moonrise 9:10PMMoonset 9:00AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rural Hill, TN
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location: 36.13, -86.61     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus64 kohx 212100
afdohx
area forecast discussion
national weather service nashville tn
300 pm cst Thu feb 21 2019

Potentially life-threatening flash flooding possible...

Discussion
While Sun was seen by many this morning north of i-40, showers have
already started to stream into middle tn this afternoon. This isn't
great news because an earlier arrival of the rains means even more
we don't need. Flood advisories have already started flowing out in
our far southern counties and for this reason, we're going to move
up the start time of the flash flood watch with the issuance of this
afternoon's forecast package.

This isn't a forecast discussion I write lightly. After yesterday's
widespread flooding across all of middle tn, even with the 18 hour
break in rainfall, the addition of even another 1 to 1.5 inches is
going to create some major issues. The problem is, we're now
forecasting 1 to 3 inches of rain just through tomorrow afternoon
and a total of 3 to 5 inches from tonight through Saturday night.

The highest amounts are currently thought to fall across southwest
portions of middle tn, basically west of i-24 and south of i-40.

While there were already swift water rescues yesterday, this amount
of rainfall is likely to cause more of the same and probably even
cause some people to be thinking about a plan to evacuate. This
needs to be your focus prior tonight. If you live near a stream or
a creek or a river that you know floods easily, you need to have a
plan in place to evacuate and get to higher ground in the event
waters begin to rise as this has the makings of a life-threatening
situation. The main time of concern begins early tomorrow morning,
runs right through most of the day tomorrow and probably won't let
up much, if at all, tomorrow night.

While there is a severe weather threat Saturday evening across the
mid-state, the focus right now needs to be the extreme amount of
rainfall we're expecting. Please don't take this lightly. Have a
plan in place now so you can evacuate to higher ground quickly, if
need be.

Now, for the severe weather threat. Models continue to show an
intense system developing upstream from the tn river valley Saturday
morning. This system will increase winds fields to the point where
we're looking at significant low-level helicities (on the order
of 500 0-1 km) by Saturday evening. The question will be the
amount of instability that can be realized. A strong low-level jet
will try to strengthen the warm air advection ahead of what is
likely to be at least a broken, if not solid, line of convection
for Saturday evening. Here's the major issue with this: even if we
only get strong wind gusts out of this system (40-50 mph), with
as wet as the ground already is, trees are going to fall very
easily. This is something folks need to keep in mind as we go into
Saturday evening. The main concern right now is damaging straight
line winds, but with the low-level helicities expected, i
wouldn't be surprised to see rotation in many of these storms.

Again, the flash flooding threat is the main concern in the next
24-36 hours, but then we need to watch this closely.

With all of that said, models are hinting at the possibility of at
least 3 days of dry weather after Saturday night. This will be a
welcomed change after the next couple of days.

Aviation
18z TAF discussion.

MainlyVFR through this afternoon, except lingering MVFR CIGS at
csv. For tonight, showers return to the area, so CIGS vsbys will
fall to MVFR overnight with some ifr at times. Winds will be nne
6-10kt through the period.

Preliminary point temps pops
Nashville 43 53 51 69 49 90 90 100 90 90
clarksville 42 52 48 69 46 90 90 100 100 90
crossville 41 52 49 63 48 100 100 100 70 90
columbia 44 53 52 70 48 100 100 90 80 90
lawrenceburg 45 55 53 70 49 100 100 90 70 90
waverly 42 51 50 70 46 90 90 100 100 90

Ohx watches warnings advisories
Flash flood watch through Saturday evening for bedford-cannon-
cheatham-clay-coffee-cumberland-davidson-de kalb-dickson-
fentress-giles-grundy-hickman-houston-humphreys-jackson-lawrence-
lewis-macon-marshall-maury-montgomery-overton-perry-pickett-
putnam-robertson-rutherford-smith-stewart-sumner-trousdale-van
buren-warren-wayne-white-williamson-wilson.

Discussion... ... Unger
aviation... ... ..13


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Nashville, Nashville International Airport, TN4 mi49 minN 610.00 miOvercast52°F37°F59%1021.9 hPa
Smyrna, Smyrna Airport, TN10 mi46 minENE 410.00 miLight Rain50°F42°F74%1019.3 hPa

Wind History from BNA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr6
G18
S6S5SW6W4W7NW6NW7NW6NW8N10N5CalmCalmN4N4NE4N8N10NE6NE5N6NE5N6
1 day agoE6E11E7NE9NE7E8NE8E8SE9SE10SE15
G21
S11S14NW5E5NE4E7S93S12S22
G26
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G29
S17
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G25
2 days agoN12
G22
N12N8N7NE15
G21
NE13N11N8N9NE8NE8NE7NE9NE9NE8NE6NE11NE11NE10E7E10E9NE6E6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Nashville, TN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.