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FXUS64 KTSA 200121 AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 821 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

New SHORT TERM

SHORT TERM
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 821 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Severe thunderstorms currently across northwest Oklahoma are expected to congeal over the next hour or so as they move into north-central Oklahoma. This activity will likely continue to be severe as it moves into Osage and Pawnee counties before weakening as it moves into a less favorable environment in place across the remainder of the area. Wind gusts to around 70 mph will be the main concern as storms move into the region late this evening. Made some minor adjustments to the forecast for tonight to reflect the latest trends in observations and short-term guidance. Otherwise, current forecast for tonight is on track.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

The dryline likely stays capped on Monday, so the main focus for storms will be the front across KS, and this activity should remain north of the state line thru Monday night.

Focus then turns to Tuesday and Wednesday, the days which appear to have the greatest severe potential this week. The system off the coast of SoCal/Baja will be ejecting into the central Plains Tuesday afternoon and evening, optimally timed with max diurnal heating. At the surface, a cold front will be approaching from the north and a dryline will be mixing farther east closer to the I-35 corridor. Mid level temps will be warm, but the glancing influence from the upper wave should weaken the cap enough to allow for at least isolated storm development north of I-40 Tuesday afternoon. With H5 flow expected to be greater than 50kts, deep layer shear should be plenty strong for supercells. The initiation zone will be closer to our area, so any cells that develop will be maturing as they move across E OK and possibly into NW AR and will be capable of producing higher-end severe weather. Low level shear will increase by evening, increasing the tornado threat with any ongoing discrete cells. Storms will also begin to develop along the front across NE OK during the evening, though these storms will be more multicell and linear, and not as high of a severe threat as they spread southeast Tuesday night.
The slowly sagging front will be the focus for more storms on Wednesday as the airmass destabilizes with daytime heating, mainly to the south and east of I-44. A severe wind/hail threat will continue with these storms as they track southeast.

The front never really clears our area, meanders over the region and interacts with the next wave to produce another round of storms Wednesday night into Thursday. It is during this time when severe threat maybe wanes a bit and locally heavy rainfall and flooding threat increases. We may get a break in the action for much of Friday before storm chances increase toward next Sunday with the next system moving across the central Plains.

Lacy

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Decaying thunderstorm complex is forecast to move into portions of northeast Oklahoma in the 05-06Z time frame. Strong/gusty winds will be likely with any of the stronger storms. This activity could move into northwest Arkansas late tonight but overall coverage will likely be greatly diminished and was handled with PROB30 groups for now. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with southerly winds increasing during the day Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 67 90 74 88 / 60 10 0 20 FSM 69 91 70 90 / 20 10 0 0 MLC 70 90 72 86 / 20 0 0 10 BVO 65 89 70 89 / 70 10 0 20 FYV 66 88 69 89 / 20 10 0 10 BYV 66 88 69 89 / 20 20 0 10 MKO 67 89 72 88 / 30 10 0 10 MIO 66 88 71 88 / 60 20 0 20 F10 68 89 72 87 / 40 10 0 20 HHW 67 88 70 85 / 10 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
AR...None.

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