Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Duck, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 7:26PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 5:14 AM EDT (09:14 UTC) Moonrise 7:05AMMoonset 8:19PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ658 Coastal Waters From Nc Va Border To Currituck Beach Light Nc Out 20 Nm- 328 Am Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
Through 7 am..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 10 seconds. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Today..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 10 seconds. Patchy fog early in the morning. Patchy fog late in the morning. Vsby 1 nm or less...increasing to 1 to 3 nm late in the morning.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Thu night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers likely in the morning...then showers with a chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms in the evening...then a chance of showers after midnight.
Sat..W winds 10 kt...becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Sat night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Sun..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Winds and seas higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ600 328 Am Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A cold front will push farther offshore today as high pressure builds in from the north. The high pushes offshore late Thursday into Thursday night. Low pressure and another cold front will approach from the west on Friday...then move across the area Friday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Duck, NC
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location: 36.18, -75.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 290759
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
359 am edt Wed mar 29 2017

Synopsis
A cold front pushes farther offshore this morning. High
pressure builds across the northeast today, before it retreats
to the northeast on Thursday. A strong system is expected to
impact the region Friday and Friday night. Dry weather returns
for the weekend.

Near term /through tonight/
Latest upper air analysis reveals a dampening upper level trough
now oriented offshore of the mid-atlantic/northeast coast. In
its wake, shortwave ridging continues to build northeast from
the mississippi river valley into the oh/tn valleys. Farther
west, a strong closed low continues to slowly cross the southern
high plains this morning. At the surface, surface trough now
aligned just offshore, with ~1034+ mb sfc high pressure
centered from hudson bay down into western ontario and now
dropping south across the upper great lakes.

As expected, have noted some patchy fog across south central va
into interior NE nc over locations that received between 0.5 and
1" of rainfall Tuesday aftn. As post-frontal nne flow continues
this morning, expect areal coverage to remain limited, but
have accounted for lingering low stratus/patchy fog early this
morning. Otherwise, look for clouds to eventually give way to
a partly/mostly sunny sky as drier air moves in from the n.

Somewhat cooler, but still expecting temperatures near to a
little above average with highs 60-65f near the coast and in
the upper 60s to lower 70s well inland.

Upper ridging pulls overhead tonight as upper trough lifts
across ks/ok late tonight. At the surface, high pressure nudges
south from eastern canada/new england tonight, with low level
flow becoming e-ne and increasing. Lows in the mid 30s to near
40 across far northern zones, low to mid 40s farther south... Mid
to upper 40s along far SE coastal zones. Sky begins mainly
clear, but expect some increasing mid to high clouds toward
morning.

Short term /Thursday through Friday night/
Dry Thursday, with upper ridge in place overhead. However, waa
aloft atop the stable onshore flow will likely result in partly
to mostly cloudy sky Thursday and model bufr soundings continue
to suggest mostly cloudy to overcast conditions inland by 18z
thu (partly sunny eastern sections). Given weak/low mixing and
the increase in clouds, expect a much cooler day with highs
mainly ranging from the lower to mid 50s near the coast to the
upper 50s over interior eastern va/northeast nc.

Models coming into increasing agreement with handling of
previously mentioned upper low currently pushing slowly across
the southern high plains. 00z NAM has come into better agreement
with the gfs/ecmwf solutions, which all feature a strong closed
low lifting across the missouri valley, and taking on a
negative tilt as it lifts across in/oh by Friday morning. Good
model agreement exists with respect to onset of showers and
embedded t-storms late Thursday night/Friday morning from west
to east. Similarly good agreement with respect to potential for
widespread showers/tstms and potential for heavy rain during
fri, which makes sense given the negative tilt, pw values in the
1.25-1.5" range (>150% of normal) and flow aloft parallel to
the encroaching frontal boundary. Quickly expand pops just
before sunrise west of i-95 before increasing to 80% to 90% all
areas during Fri morning.

Categorical pops continue Friday aftn as the upper low tracks
east across the mountains Friday afternoon and night. There
remains every indication that we'll have the chance for some
strong to locally severe storms once again during this time
frame. Given the trend towards the quicker solution, storms will
move out quicker and there will be less time for diurnal
destabilization, so it is certainly a conditional threat.

That said, strong 0-6km shear values, lifted indices of
<-4 deg c coincident with timing of best forcing onset Friday
aftn would at least argue favorably for continued mention of
thunder in grids, especially across the southern 2/3 of the
area. Lowered pops Friday night given quicker timing, with
clearing into Sat morning. As front crosses the area late
Friday. Highs in the 60s to near 70. Lows Sat morning in the low
to mid 50s, with some upper 40s across our far northern tier of
counties.

Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/
Low pressure and associated surface cold front cross the area
Friday night then moves off the coast. Dry wx and high pressure
returns for Sat thru at least Mon morning. Yet another system
will bring the chc for showers back to the area late Mon thru
tue.

Highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s sat, in the 60s to near 70
sun and mon, and in the 60s to lower 70s tue. Lows in the upper
40s to mid 50s Fri night, in the 40s Sat night and Sun night,
and in the mid 40s to lower 50s Mon night.

Aviation /07z Wednesday through Sunday/
PredominateVFR conditions across area terminals, with only
localized visibility/ceiling restrictions in light n-ne flow
this morning at kphf and to the west of kecg. This will result
in some ceilings localized lifr/ifr CIGS for a brief time early
this morning morning with some patchy fog also likely in those
same areas (around/west of ecg and INVOF phf) that picked up ~1"
of rain late Tuesday. Skies will scatter out and lift from
north to south this morning as high pressure slowly builds into
the region from the north.

Outlook: dryVFR conditions through Thursday. However, clouds
will increase on Thursday as another front approaches the
region. Clouds then thicken and lower Thursday night as the next
low pressure system approaches the area. This system should
bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the area
Friday/Friday night as it crosses the mid atlantic states.

Marine
Latest sfc analysis shows a cold front sliding off the carolina
coast with high pres over the great lakes region. The front
will push farther offshore today as the high builds north of the
region. Resulting north winds will increase this morning in
association with weak caa/pres rises. Currently expecting
sustained winds up to ~15 kt with a few gusts up to 20 kt psbl
over the bay... But no SCA hazards issued attm. Also, seas will
build close to 5 ft out 20 nm this aftn but confidence is not
high enough to issue a SCA there also as seas should mainly cap
out around 4 ft there. Conditions just sub-sca again tonight
with NE flow of 10-15 ft over the bay/rivers/sound and 15-20 kt
over coastal waters. Similar conditions into Thu morning with
seas near 5 ft out 20 nm over the coastal waters. Next cold
front then approaches from the west fri, with marginal SCA s/se
flow expected ahead of the front. This front crosses the waters
late Fri night/sat morning.

Akq watches/warnings/advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Mam
short term... Lkb/mam
long term... Tmg
aviation... Mam/jef
marine... Mas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 0 mi44 min N 13 G 13 53°F 47°F1012.9 hPa
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 2 mi44 min 49°F2 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 10 mi39 min 52°F3 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 29 mi44 min N 8.9 G 11 54°F 59°F1012.9 hPa
44095 37 mi56 min 53°F4 ft

Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC18 mi34 minNNE 1110.00 miFair59°F58°F99%1013.2 hPa
Currituck, Currituck County Airport, NC21 mi34 minNNE 910.00 miFair60°F59°F100%1014.6 hPa
Elizabeth City C/G Regional Airport, NC23 mi20 minN 810.00 miA Few Clouds59°F55°F90%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from FFA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9NE10
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN8CalmCalmN3N6CalmN6N8CalmN7----N5N8N7N10
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CalmN8
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Calm
2 days agoW8W10
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CalmNW5NW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for FRF Pier, Duck, North Carolina
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FRF Pier
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Wed -- 03:01 AM EDT     -0.64 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:04 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:06 AM EDT     3.80 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:14 PM EDT     -0.62 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:27 PM EDT     4.23 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.70.6-0.3-0.6-0.40.31.42.53.43.83.62.920.8-0.1-0.6-0.40.21.32.53.64.24.13.6

Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:01 AM EDT     -0.85 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:04 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:02 AM EDT     3.77 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:14 PM EDT     -0.83 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:23 PM EDT     4.19 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.60.4-0.5-0.9-0.60.21.32.53.43.83.52.81.80.6-0.3-0.8-0.60.11.22.43.64.14.13.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.