Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Duck, NC
May 7, 2024 12:35 PM EDT (16:35 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:03 AM Sunset 7:59 PM Moonrise 4:30 AM Moonset 6:46 PM |
ANZ658 Coastal Waters From Nc Va Border To Currituck Beach Light Nc Out 20 Nm- 925 Am Edt Tue May 7 2024
Rest of today - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se late. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 11 seconds and S 2 ft at 6 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms late this morning, then a chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the late evening and overnight. Seas around 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 2 ft at 11 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms early in the evening.
Wed - SW winds 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 2 ft at 11 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 2 ft at 11 seconds. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers.
Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 4 seconds and E 2 ft at 11 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then showers and tstms likely in the afternoon.
Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: sw 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 foot at 10 seconds. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the evening.
Fri - W winds 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat - N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft.
Sat night - SE winds 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 925 Am Edt Tue May 7 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a weak front meanders just to the north of the area today. A series of low pressure systems will pass along that front to the north, resulting in chances for showers and storms each day through midweek. Outside of any Thunderstorm influences, marine conditions are expected to be mainly benign through Thursday. A stronger cold front looks to pass through late Friday into early Saturday.
a weak front meanders just to the north of the area today. A series of low pressure systems will pass along that front to the north, resulting in chances for showers and storms each day through midweek. Outside of any Thunderstorm influences, marine conditions are expected to be mainly benign through Thursday. A stronger cold front looks to pass through late Friday into early Saturday.
FXUS61 KAKQ 071356 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 956 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
Summer-like conditions with daily showers and storms are expected through Thursday, with a cold front expected to push through the region late Thursday through Friday. An upper level trough will keep a chance for showers late Saturday into Sunday, with dry conditions expected Monday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 955 AM EDT Tuesday...
Late morning WX analysis indicates sfc high pressure well off the east coast, with a weak sfc trough across the local area.
Aloft, a strong upper low is spinning over the northern/central high plains, leading to an amplifying upper ridge into the lower OH Valley and central Great Lakes. A nearly zonal flow is in place over the mid-Atlantic with a weak shortwave passing through the area. Earlier fog over the NW has generally dissipated, leaving a broken or overcast low cloud deck over these areas. Expect this to gradually thin out over the next few hrs with increasing sfc heating. Temps have risen into the upper 60s-low 70s (except in the mid 60s where that low cloud deck remains).
For today, the FA is in a Marginal SVR risk with the primary threats being wind and hail. Low level lapse rates will be a little steeper today compared to the past few days with the expectation of seeing increasing amts of sun later this morning into the aftn. This will lead to decent instability by aftn as upper level flow becomes NW and the upper ridge W of the Appalachians amplifies. Shear will avg ~30kt. Given the overall weaker forcing, expect the storm coverage to be a bit less but still in the chc range this aftn (mainly 30-40%), with a bit lower coverage (20%) over the SW zones. Latest HRRR places the highest coverage of storms in the I-64 corridor, along with a secondary area over the MD Eastern Shore. Thinking is that sea breezes and/or remnant boundaries may serve as the primary focus for shower/storm activity this aftn. The best instability will over the SE (just inland from the coast) this aftn, and this is where there is the best chance of a localized damaging wind gust. Highs will range from the low- mid 80s across most of the region, though temperatures near the coast may drop off by later aftn as the weak sfc pattern allows for some backing of the winds near the coast. Storms should diminish in coverage this evening, with manly dry conditions overnight. There is a decent signal for marine fog along the ern shore and this could affect the entire ern shore later tonight. Warm with lows mainly in the 60s.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 410 AM EDT Tuesday...
The pattern remains active Wed-Thu, with a strong upper low shifting E towards the Great Lakes Wed, then slowly dropping SE Thu/Thu night. Both Wed and Thu will be warm and somewhat humid for the time of year (dew pts in the mid/upper 60s during peak heating). SPC has placed the CWA in a a Marginal risk for Wed and a Slight risk for Thu. With that said, Wed will still feature ample instability (ML CAPE to 1000-2000 J/Kg), and decent shear (0-6km bulk shear and increasing shear ~40kt). The limiting factor will be a WSW low level flow that may lead to a limited storm coverage. Hot Wed with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Again the main threat will be wind and hail in any storms that develop, primarily late in the aftn into the evening (actually may see the higher coverage during the evening). For Thu, we will continue to see decent shear, and with decreasing heights aloft as the upper trough moves in from the NW, a higher storm coverage. Some of the CAMs are suggesting some morning shower/tstm activity and this could mess with the aftn instability to some extent. Still, the overall pattern is favorable enough to support the Slight risk as it appears now.
Not as warm on Thu with highs mainly in the low 80sW to the upper 80s SE. Showers/storms diminish overnight with drier air moving in from W to E. Slightly cooler with lows in the upper 50s W to low-mid 60s SE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 420 AM EDT Tuesday...
Fri starts off mainly dry, but scattered showers are expected to redevelop as the upper trough swings through and the associated shortwave moves across either VA or the Carolinas. There will be limited sfc-based instability but the cold pool aloft could set off some tstms, mainly across the southern 1/2 of the CWA Highs on Fri will be cooler, mainly in the lower to mid 70s. The weekend weather pattern remains a bit uncertain as the models show yet another upper trough diving SE from the Great Lakes and passing off the mid-Atlantic coast Sat night through Sunday. The airmass will be cooler and fairly dry but will continue w/ 20-30% PoPs (highest N) for Sat night through early Sun aftn. It looks dry from late Sunday through Monday with seasonable temperatures (highs in the 70s with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s).
AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 700 AM EDT Tuesday...
Showers taper off over the ern shore over the next few hrs, though an isolated shower still could affect VA zones over the next few hrs as well. Conditions vary from LIFR in the piedmont (both CIGs and VSBYs) to mostly MVFR across the SE. Expect to see flight restrictions improve to VFR by later morning/early aftn and should remain that way through the aftn outside of scattered aftn/early evening tstms. Have included VCTS in the TAFs from 17/18Z through ~22/23Z. Brief heavy rain (with IFR VSBYs) and gusty winds can be expected in any shower/tstm this aftn. There continues to be a strong signal that a marine layer pushes inland over the Eastern Shore this evening through Wed morning with IFR/LIFR CIGs and fog possible at SBY. Winds remain generally light and variable overnight apart from SW winds 5-10 kt across SE VA/NE NC. Winds become SW 5-10 kt late today, but may shift to the SE near the coast between 18-21Z. Light winds tonight.
Outlook...A warmer, more summerlike pattern will prevail Wed through Thu, with chances for storms mainly during the aftn/evening.
The highest coverage is expected to be Thursday as a slow moving cold front moves through the area. Mainly VFR Fri, but there will be a chc for showers redeveloping Fri aftn into fri evening. Mainly dry Sat.
MARINE
As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday...
Quiet conditions early this morning across the local waters. Surface analysis shows high pressure off the SE CONUS with strong low pressure noted over the northern Plains. Winds are generally SW 5-10 kt with waves 1-2 ft in the bay and seas 2-3 ft offshore.
A weak front is located north of the local waters and it may sag southward into the northern Ches Bay this afternoon before lifting back northward this evening. High pressure remains anchored well offshore through mid week, resulting in sub-SCA S or SW flow. A series of upper waves will traverse north of the area in the speedy westerly flow aloft through Thursday. These disturbances will bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms, generally favoring the afternoon into the early overnight hours. Locally enhanced winds/waves/seas could accompany the stronger storms. A stronger low late Friday into the first half of the weekend may lead to a stronger frontal passage and the potential for SCA conditions but confidence in strength and timing of the relevant features are low.
Waves generally 1-2 ft with seas 2-4 ft through the end of the work week.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...
Continued ebb tides at the mouth of the bay have resulted in decreasing tidal anomalies across the area (generally less than 1 foot in the mid and upper bay and around 1 foot for the southern bay/lower James gauges). Some nuisance to localized low-end minor flooding (Bishops Head) will be possible with the higher diurnal astronomical tides early Wednesday morning. Guidance suggests borderline minor to low-end moderate tidal flooding is possible across bay-side portions of the MD Eastern Shore early Thursday morning as SW flow combines with increasing astronomical tides as we approach the new moon phase.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 956 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
Summer-like conditions with daily showers and storms are expected through Thursday, with a cold front expected to push through the region late Thursday through Friday. An upper level trough will keep a chance for showers late Saturday into Sunday, with dry conditions expected Monday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 955 AM EDT Tuesday...
Late morning WX analysis indicates sfc high pressure well off the east coast, with a weak sfc trough across the local area.
Aloft, a strong upper low is spinning over the northern/central high plains, leading to an amplifying upper ridge into the lower OH Valley and central Great Lakes. A nearly zonal flow is in place over the mid-Atlantic with a weak shortwave passing through the area. Earlier fog over the NW has generally dissipated, leaving a broken or overcast low cloud deck over these areas. Expect this to gradually thin out over the next few hrs with increasing sfc heating. Temps have risen into the upper 60s-low 70s (except in the mid 60s where that low cloud deck remains).
For today, the FA is in a Marginal SVR risk with the primary threats being wind and hail. Low level lapse rates will be a little steeper today compared to the past few days with the expectation of seeing increasing amts of sun later this morning into the aftn. This will lead to decent instability by aftn as upper level flow becomes NW and the upper ridge W of the Appalachians amplifies. Shear will avg ~30kt. Given the overall weaker forcing, expect the storm coverage to be a bit less but still in the chc range this aftn (mainly 30-40%), with a bit lower coverage (20%) over the SW zones. Latest HRRR places the highest coverage of storms in the I-64 corridor, along with a secondary area over the MD Eastern Shore. Thinking is that sea breezes and/or remnant boundaries may serve as the primary focus for shower/storm activity this aftn. The best instability will over the SE (just inland from the coast) this aftn, and this is where there is the best chance of a localized damaging wind gust. Highs will range from the low- mid 80s across most of the region, though temperatures near the coast may drop off by later aftn as the weak sfc pattern allows for some backing of the winds near the coast. Storms should diminish in coverage this evening, with manly dry conditions overnight. There is a decent signal for marine fog along the ern shore and this could affect the entire ern shore later tonight. Warm with lows mainly in the 60s.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 410 AM EDT Tuesday...
The pattern remains active Wed-Thu, with a strong upper low shifting E towards the Great Lakes Wed, then slowly dropping SE Thu/Thu night. Both Wed and Thu will be warm and somewhat humid for the time of year (dew pts in the mid/upper 60s during peak heating). SPC has placed the CWA in a a Marginal risk for Wed and a Slight risk for Thu. With that said, Wed will still feature ample instability (ML CAPE to 1000-2000 J/Kg), and decent shear (0-6km bulk shear and increasing shear ~40kt). The limiting factor will be a WSW low level flow that may lead to a limited storm coverage. Hot Wed with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Again the main threat will be wind and hail in any storms that develop, primarily late in the aftn into the evening (actually may see the higher coverage during the evening). For Thu, we will continue to see decent shear, and with decreasing heights aloft as the upper trough moves in from the NW, a higher storm coverage. Some of the CAMs are suggesting some morning shower/tstm activity and this could mess with the aftn instability to some extent. Still, the overall pattern is favorable enough to support the Slight risk as it appears now.
Not as warm on Thu with highs mainly in the low 80sW to the upper 80s SE. Showers/storms diminish overnight with drier air moving in from W to E. Slightly cooler with lows in the upper 50s W to low-mid 60s SE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 420 AM EDT Tuesday...
Fri starts off mainly dry, but scattered showers are expected to redevelop as the upper trough swings through and the associated shortwave moves across either VA or the Carolinas. There will be limited sfc-based instability but the cold pool aloft could set off some tstms, mainly across the southern 1/2 of the CWA Highs on Fri will be cooler, mainly in the lower to mid 70s. The weekend weather pattern remains a bit uncertain as the models show yet another upper trough diving SE from the Great Lakes and passing off the mid-Atlantic coast Sat night through Sunday. The airmass will be cooler and fairly dry but will continue w/ 20-30% PoPs (highest N) for Sat night through early Sun aftn. It looks dry from late Sunday through Monday with seasonable temperatures (highs in the 70s with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s).
AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 700 AM EDT Tuesday...
Showers taper off over the ern shore over the next few hrs, though an isolated shower still could affect VA zones over the next few hrs as well. Conditions vary from LIFR in the piedmont (both CIGs and VSBYs) to mostly MVFR across the SE. Expect to see flight restrictions improve to VFR by later morning/early aftn and should remain that way through the aftn outside of scattered aftn/early evening tstms. Have included VCTS in the TAFs from 17/18Z through ~22/23Z. Brief heavy rain (with IFR VSBYs) and gusty winds can be expected in any shower/tstm this aftn. There continues to be a strong signal that a marine layer pushes inland over the Eastern Shore this evening through Wed morning with IFR/LIFR CIGs and fog possible at SBY. Winds remain generally light and variable overnight apart from SW winds 5-10 kt across SE VA/NE NC. Winds become SW 5-10 kt late today, but may shift to the SE near the coast between 18-21Z. Light winds tonight.
Outlook...A warmer, more summerlike pattern will prevail Wed through Thu, with chances for storms mainly during the aftn/evening.
The highest coverage is expected to be Thursday as a slow moving cold front moves through the area. Mainly VFR Fri, but there will be a chc for showers redeveloping Fri aftn into fri evening. Mainly dry Sat.
MARINE
As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday...
Quiet conditions early this morning across the local waters. Surface analysis shows high pressure off the SE CONUS with strong low pressure noted over the northern Plains. Winds are generally SW 5-10 kt with waves 1-2 ft in the bay and seas 2-3 ft offshore.
A weak front is located north of the local waters and it may sag southward into the northern Ches Bay this afternoon before lifting back northward this evening. High pressure remains anchored well offshore through mid week, resulting in sub-SCA S or SW flow. A series of upper waves will traverse north of the area in the speedy westerly flow aloft through Thursday. These disturbances will bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms, generally favoring the afternoon into the early overnight hours. Locally enhanced winds/waves/seas could accompany the stronger storms. A stronger low late Friday into the first half of the weekend may lead to a stronger frontal passage and the potential for SCA conditions but confidence in strength and timing of the relevant features are low.
Waves generally 1-2 ft with seas 2-4 ft through the end of the work week.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...
Continued ebb tides at the mouth of the bay have resulted in decreasing tidal anomalies across the area (generally less than 1 foot in the mid and upper bay and around 1 foot for the southern bay/lower James gauges). Some nuisance to localized low-end minor flooding (Bishops Head) will be possible with the higher diurnal astronomical tides early Wednesday morning. Guidance suggests borderline minor to low-end moderate tidal flooding is possible across bay-side portions of the MD Eastern Shore early Thursday morning as SW flow combines with increasing astronomical tides as we approach the new moon phase.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 | 0 mi | 48 min | WSW 11G | 74°F | 29.83 | |||
| 44056 - Duck FRF, NC | 2 mi | 40 min | 57°F | 2 ft | ||||
| 44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) | 10 mi | 36 min | 67°F | 64°F | 3 ft | |||
| 44086 | 21 mi | 40 min | 67°F | 3 ft | ||||
| ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC | 29 mi | 48 min | WSW 7G | 75°F | 75°F | 29.87 | ||
| 44095 | 37 mi | 40 min | 65°F | 3 ft |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KFFA FIRST FLIGHT,NC | 12 sm | 10 min | W 09G14 | 10 sm | Clear | 75°F | 66°F | 74% | 29.82 | |
| KMQI DARE COUNTY RGNL,NC | 18 sm | 10 min | NW 08 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 77°F | 66°F | 69% | 29.84 | |
| KONX CURRITUCK COUNTY RGNL,NC | 21 sm | 10 min | W 05 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 79°F | 64°F | 61% | 29.82 | |
| KECG ELIZABETH CITY CG AIR STATION/RGNL,NC | 23 sm | 2.3 hrs | WSW 10 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 73°F | 66°F | 78% | 29.84 |
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
FRF Pier, Duck, North Carolina, Tide feet
Kitty Hawk (ocean)
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:26 AM EDT -0.44 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:30 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:03 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 07:23 AM EDT 3.48 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:23 PM EDT -0.37 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:45 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 07:46 PM EDT 4.36 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:55 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:26 AM EDT -0.44 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:30 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:03 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 07:23 AM EDT 3.48 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:23 PM EDT -0.37 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:45 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 07:46 PM EDT 4.36 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:55 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.1 |
| 1 am |
| -0.4 |
| 2 am |
| -0.3 |
| 3 am |
| 0.2 |
| 4 am |
| 1.1 |
| 5 am |
| 2.1 |
| 6 am |
| 3 |
| 7 am |
| 3.4 |
| 8 am |
| 3.4 |
| 9 am |
| 2.8 |
| 10 am |
| 2 |
| 11 am |
| 1 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 6 pm |
| 3.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 4.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 4.3 |
| 9 pm |
| 4 |
| 10 pm |
| 3.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 2 |
Wakefield, VA,
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