Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hertford, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:24AMSunset 7:53PM Thursday August 17, 2017 1:36 PM EDT (17:36 UTC) Moonrise 1:00AMMoonset 3:30PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 112 Pm Edt Thu Aug 17 2017
This afternoon..SE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Tonight..S winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hertford, NC
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location: 36.18, -76.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 171722
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
122 pm edt Thu aug 17 2017

Synopsis
A weak frontal boundary remains over the mid atlantic today as
high pressure builds over the northeast states. The next cold
front affects the area Friday into Saturday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Latest sfc analysis shows a weak stalled frontal bndry over the
area with high pressure over the northeast states. Expect some
patchy fog this morning especially over eastern areas, with
vsbys quickly improving later this morning. Deep layer moisture
increases today, and with the sfc bndry in the vicinity and weak
impulses aloft, there will be a chance of shras tstms especially
inland with dry conditions expected near the coast. Otws, some
increasing cloudiness today with high temps in the upr 80s to
near 90 inland and mid 80s near the coast.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Saturday
Frontal boundary remains in the vicinity tonight. Enough
moisture and support noted to keep slight chc-chc pops across
the area, with the best chance over NRN areas. Low temps in the
low to mid 70s.

Plenty of moisture around the region Friday with a sfc trof providing
the trigger for convection to develop. Not expecting a washout, but
do think the chc for pcpn will be around all day. More humid as
well with heat indices reaching at least 100 in many spots.

Widespread severe wx is not expected at this time, but gusty
winds and locally heavy downpours are possible. Highs upr 80s
to lwr 90s.

Frontal boundary slowly drifts SE across the region Friday night and
Saturday keeping the chc for pcpn going. Drier air behind the front
will likely cut off any convection across nwrn most zones sat. Lows
fri night 70-75. Highs Sat 85-90.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
Cold front remains stalled near the mid atlantic coast sat
night into Sun morning before sagging well south of the area
by Sun aftn. Any showers storms INVOF the front will diminish
as the front moves farther south of the region. For the rest
of Sun into Sun night, sfc high pressure builds north of the
area, and although temperatures should experience little to
no change, dewpoints will drop around 5 degrees thus feeling
a tad cooler. High pressure slides off the coast on mon...

bringing a return to warm air advection and increasingly more
humid conditions. Sfc features rather diffuse during the
early part of next week, however seabreeze boundaries with
plenty of moisture present will keep a chance for
thunderstorms in the forecast during this time.

Highs generally mid-upper 80s to lower 90s; low-mid 80s
beaches. Lows Sat Sun nights generally upper 60s NW to around
75f se. Lows Mon Tue nights generally 70-75f.

Aviation 17z Thursday through Monday
Latest radar shows some shower activity along the i-95 corridor,
mainly south of ric, moving east. The latest guidance suggests
that these showers will dissipate and dive southeast this
afternoon. As such, will keep any mention out of the terminals,
with the exception of ric where I will include vcsh 18-20z.

Otherwise, a weak boundary will move mainly north of the area
later tonight into Friday morning. This may allow for additional
shower activity at ric and sby, but confidence is not high
enough to include in the terminals. Main story will be ifr cigs
and possible vsby at ric late tonight into early Friday morning.

With the wind staying around 5 kt, am expecting more of a lower
stratus event vs. A low vsby event at ric. Elsewhere, it should
remainVFR or MVFR with low probability of ifr expected.

Outlook: a cold front approaches the region Friday into
Saturday bringing another chance for showers, thunderstorms, and
sub-vfr conditions. High pressure builds back into the region
Sunday.

Marine
Latest obs reflect light s-sw flow over the waters this morning. A
weak boundary stalled just north of the waters and extending back
into the ohio valley will lift farther north into the northeast
today, as low pressure crosses the upper great lakes today through
tonight. Pressure gradient begins to tighten today across the local
area as the associated (slow-moving) cold front tracks into the ohio
valley today, eventually crossing the mountains Fri before reaching
the waters late Fri night into Saturday morning. Winds speeds
increase to an average of 10-15kt this aftn... Initially SE and then
veering to s-sw late tonight early Fri morning into Fri evening as
the front approaches. Hi-res models indicate some southerly
channeling late tonight through Friday, bringing winds to near sca
thresholds late tonight thru Fri morning and again Fri aftn.

However, have held winds at 15kt for now with probabilities favoring
predominate sub-sca winds. Some elevated winds possible with t-
storms Friday aftn and night. This surge of winds would be short-
lived and convective in nature and therefore likely better addressed
with targeted smw mws. Seas average 2-3ft through this period, but
may touch 4ft out near 20nm as the front crosses the waters fri
night.

Winds become more w-sw post-frontal with speeds AOB 10kt early sat
morning into Sun morning as the front stalls near the mid atlantic
coast Sat night and early Sunday, and then become more onshore sun
aftn into Mon as the front sags farther south of the area.

Latest data indicating long second periods have largely abated with
distant hurricane gert accelerating farther NE away from the conus,
and well SE of atlantic canada. One more day of elevated (moderate)
rip current risk over northern area beaches, with low rip risk
across SE va NE nc outer banks. Given a mid to late morning low tide
cycle, rip risk should be lower for northern beaches for the
afternoon and evening.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mas
near term... Mas
short term... Mas mpr
long term... Bmd
aviation... Mrd
marine... Mam


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 38 mi49 min ESE 6 G 7 80°F 79°F1017.4 hPa
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 40 mi37 min 80°F2 ft
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 42 mi55 min S 4.1 G 6 86°F 82°F1016.5 hPa
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 47 mi62 min 81°F2 ft
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 49 mi49 min S 6 G 6 87°F 1016.6 hPa

Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Edenton, Northeastern Regional Airport, NC12 mi52 minN 010.00 miFair88°F73°F63%1017.6 hPa
Elizabeth City C/G Regional Airport, NC16 mi43 minESE 810.00 miFair87°F73°F63%1017.2 hPa

Wind History from EDE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3SE4E5SE7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmE7E5CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Currituck Beach Light, North Carolina
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Currituck Beach Light
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:37 AM EDT     3.46 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:41 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:17 PM EDT     4.57 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:51 PM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.32.12.93.43.43.12.51.70.80.20.10.51.22.23.34.24.54.543.12.11.10.40.3

Tide / Current Tables for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina
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Duck Pier
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:39 AM EDT     3.14 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:44 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:22 PM EDT     4.18 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:26 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:56 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.21.92.63.13.12.92.31.60.80.20.10.41.1233.84.24.13.7321.10.50.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.