Sunrise 6:02 AM   Sunset 8:00 PM Moonrise 5:09 AM   Moonset 8:04 PM

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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 307 Pm Edt Thu Apr 4 2019
Tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Fri night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.Sat - W winds around 5 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Sat night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening. Sun - N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.Sun night - SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.

AMZ100 805 Pm Edt Wed May 8 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - A cold front moves through the area on Friday, followed by high pressure over the weekend. Another front will come through around the middle of next week.

FXUS61 KAKQ 090019 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 819 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

SYNOPSIS
Summer-like conditions with daily showers and storms are expected through Thursday, with a cold front expected to push through the region late Thursday through Friday. An upper level trough will keep a chance for showers late Saturday into Sunday, with dry conditions expected Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 815 PM EDT Wednesday...

Storm activity has been widely scattered this evening (as expected) despite fairly decent instability (1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and ~35 knots of deep layer shear due to a lack of any substantial forcing. Any remaining showers/storms will come to an end over the next couple of hours due to a lack of daytime heating, with dry weather then expected for much of the night.
As we approach morning, rain chances (and potentially a few thunderstorms, especially North Carolina) increase as a decaying MCS (the activity currently over Tennessee) approaches from the west. Mild tonight with low temperatures in the mid to upper 60s (lower 60s Eastern Shore).

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 3 PM Wed...The remnants of a decaying MCS will move through the area Thursday morning and produce scattered showers and storms. The threat for storms to become strong to severe remains on the table, mainly south of I64, given 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE, 45-50 kt of deep layer shear, and mid-level lapse rates slightly greater than 7 C/km. SPC has the entire CWA under a Slight Risk (2/5) for severe weather with the main hazard of concern being damaging wind gusts. PoPs will then start to die off as we approach the evening hours. Highs will reach nearly 90 across the southern half of the FA with the northern half remaining closer to 80.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 315 PM EDT Wednesday...

There remains some uncertainty for the weekend, but overall the model agreement is improved compared to yesterday's 12Z runs.
The main weather maker will be yet another shortwave dropping SE and pushing across the mid Atlantic late Sat through Sunday.
This pattern favors increasing clouds Sat afternoon, with low chance PoPs pushing into the NW by late afternoon, spreading through the region Sat night/early Sunday. The airmass will be cooler and fairly dry so not expecting much QPF with this system (unless the trough and shortwave were to push farther S than any of the guidance currently shows). Will keep ~30% PoPs over the N Sat night into early Sunday, with PoPs only ~10% in NC.
The models start to differ more on Sunday, with the deterministic ECMWF the southern outlier regarding the track of the upper trough. The NBM as well as the GFS and Canadian are drier so will only keep PoPs around 20% through Sun aftn over the north. It looks dry from late Sunday through midday Tuesday with some low chc PoPs possible by later Tuesday as the next upper trough approaches from the lower MS/TN Valley. Temps will be near to slightly below normal Sat-Sun (highs upper 60s to mid 70s), warming a bit by Mon-Tue (highs mid/upper 70s).

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 815 PM EDT Wednesday...

Outside of any widely scattered showers or thunderstorms this evening, VFR conditions are expected this evening through most of tonight. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Thursday morning and again Thursday evening into Thursday night. Any showers/storms may produce brief periods of reduced VIS and CIGs . Storms Thursday evening could be on the stronger side and produce gusty winds.

Outlook: Drying out from W to E Thursday night, then VFR Friday, but there will be a chance for showers/isolated tstms redeveloping Friday afternoon and evening. Mainly dry Saturday, but another chance for showers Saturday night into Sunday.

MARINE
As of 3 PM Wed...The main feature of note during the period will be the chance for strong to severe thunderstorms this evening through tomorrow morning. Winds will generally be 10-15 kt out of the southwest until tomorrow afternoon when they start to back to the east. Waves will be 1-3 ft through the period.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 315 PM EDT Wednesday...

A combination of high astronomical and flood tides at the mouth of the bay will lead to areas of nuisance to minor coastal flooding on tonight's high tide cycle. Water levels along bay- facing portions of the MD Eastern Shore will approach or exceed minor flood thresholds tonight and a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effort for these areas. Locations along and adjacent to the tidal Potomac (Lewisetta/Windmill Pt) will approach but fall short of minor flood thresholds. Therefore, a Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for these areas late tonight. Elsewhere, nuisance tidal flooding is possible but not expected to be impactful enough for additional statements.

CLIMATE
As of 815 PM EDT Wednesday...

Elizabeth City tied its record high of 91 degrees today, which was set back in 1964. All other climate sites fell short of their record high temperatures today.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

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Currituck Beach Light
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:21 AM EDT     -0.49 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:16 AM EDT     3.64 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:15 PM EDT     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:39 PM EDT     4.58 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:01 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Currituck Beach Light, North Carolina, Tide feet

Duck Pier
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:23 AM EDT     -0.56 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:15 AM EDT     3.29 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:10 PM EDT     -0.53 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:39 PM EDT     4.51 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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