Monday, March18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hertford, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 7:15PM Monday March 18, 2019 11:33 AM EDT (15:33 UTC) Moonrise 3:37PMMoonset 4:47AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 1012 Am Edt Mon Mar 18 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 8 pm edt this evening through late tonight...
Today..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers late.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt early, increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Tue..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hertford, NC
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location: 36.18, -76.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 181408
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1008 am edt Mon mar 18 2019

Synopsis
Weak low pressure moves across the area through this afternoon.

High pressure builds across the area on Tuesday before sliding
offshore of new england on Wednesday. The next low pressure
system impacts the region on Thursday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 1005 am edt Monday...

a combo of a weak upper level trough moving across the mid-
atlantic region and weak sfc lo pres tracking E across nc will
provide vrb clouds-partly cloudy conditions W isold-sct
shras... ESP nrn and ERN areas of the fa. Pops 15-25% late this
morning... Then 30-40% this afternoon. Highs from the m-u40s near
the bay and on the ERN shore to the m-u50s far SRN va NE nc.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Wednesday
As of 355 am edt Monday...

this pcpn ends for all but far SE va coastal NE nc by 00z 19
and out of the entire area by 03-06z 19. Clearing and drying
out once again in subsidence behind the departing wave tonight
and Tuesday, as high pressure rebuilds from the west. Chilly
tonight with lows from the mid-upr 20s coldest inland locations
to the mid 30s immediate coast. Mostly sunny Tuesday with highs
from the mid-upr 40s eastern shore to the low- mid 50s inland.

Surface high pressure slides offshore of new england for
Wednesday. With a coastal trough sitting offshore of the
carolinas. The ec brings moisture north into NE nc with the
coastal trough by late Wednesday which is something we will have
to watch. For now, think this is a bit too aggressive and will
lean more toward the consensus of models keeping this dry. Did
increase clouds a bit more on Wednesday, especially se. Highs
in the mi-upr 50s inland (low 50s along the coast) after lows
Tuesday night Wed morning in the upper 20s inland to mid 30s
immediate coast.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
As of 355 am edt Monday...

the extended period will generally feature troughing over the
eastern united states with moisture starved shortwave disturbances
dipping into the region from the north. The highest chances for any
rain will occur on Thursday as one of these disturbances dips
down into the region and moisture potentially spreads northward
from a coastal low trough. Temperatures will be near average
through the extended period.

High pressure will be well offshore of new england Wednesday
night allowing for a weak disturbance to approach from the north
during the day on Thursday. Have a slight chance of pops,
mainly across the north and east. In addition, the major models
all suggest the potential for a coastal low trough to spread
moisture northward on Thursday. Fv3-gfs and ECMWF are the most
aggressive with this feature while the GFS and cmc are less
impressive. If the fv3 ECMWF are on to something, then wed
night Thursday will turn out wetter for eastern areas with pops
needing to be adjusted up. Temperatures will be near average on
Thursday with highs ranging from the upper 50s to low mid 60s.

Another cold front dips into the region late Friday, but once again
this should be a dry frontal passage. Highs on Friday will still
remain near average with temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Surface high pressure builds back into the region on Saturday
allowing for a continued dry period for next weekend. Temperatures
will be on the increase Sunday into early next week.

Aviation 14z Monday through Friday
As of 655 am edt Monday...

high mid level clouds will overspread the area this morning as a weak
upper level impulse tracks across the northern mid atlantic.

Airmass ahead of this system is dry so most of the moisture
associated with this feature will go into moistening the column
rather than reaching the ground. A stronger shortwave will track
across the area this afternoon with most of its moisture along
and east of i-95. Model guidance becoming more bullish with sct
showers this afternoon for all TAF sites, so have included a
period of -shra from about 18z mon-01z tue, staring earliest at
ksby ric and ending latest at kecg. Will also have borderline
MVFR CIGS at ksby this afternoon. Winds will remain NE or E less
than 10 kt through the day. Clearing out tonight.

Outlook...

high pressure andVFR conditions return tonight through
midweek. The next system may bring a chance of rain on Thursday.

Marine
As of 410 am edt Monday...

latest sfc analysis indicates a weak area of sfc low pressure
along the carolina coastal plain with sfc high pressure now well
off the coast. Light E SE winds this morning at 5-10 kt over
the waters with waves on the bay have diminished to 1-2 ft or
less and seas of 1 to 2 ft N 2 to 3 ft s.

As the area of low pressure moves offshore of the carolina coast
later this aftn and this evening with sfc high pressure over
the midwest building into the mid-atlc, the pressure gradient
will tighten. At this time it appears that this will be enough
to lead to 15-20 kt winds through tonight and into Tue over at
least the nc coastal waters and the currituck sound. Have raised
sca headlines in these 2 zones (seas should build to 4-5 ft in
nc coastal waters). A secondary cool air surge is progged to
move in from the N early Tue with though winds outside of the nc
waters will likely avg only around 15 kt since the sfc high
builds over va rather quickly. Sub-sca conditions return by tue
night (and likely last through wed) as high pressure returns to
the region. However, the latest 00z suite of models are in some
disagreement as to how close to the carolina coast the NW fringe
of the sfc low off the fl coast will get. A closer track like
the ECMWF would quickly bring SCA conditions back to the nc (and
possibly southern va waters) on Wed due to a tightening
pressure gradient between the low and the area of high pressure
that is progged to move off the northern mid-atlc coast. Models
are actually in better agreement late in the week as a stronger
cold front is progged to cross the area late Thu into fri,
potentially leading to about a 6-12 hr period of SCA conditions
for all zones.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 am edt
Wednesday for anz658.

Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 pm edt
Tuesday for anz633.

Synopsis... Jdm
near term... Alb
short term... Jdm
long term... Ajb
aviation... Jdm
marine... Eri lkb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 38 mi39 min NE 8 G 8 48°F 48°F1022.5 hPa
FRFN7 39 mi93 min 2 ft
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 40 mi33 min 48°F2 ft
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 42 mi39 min SE 8 G 11 51°F 52°F1022.7 hPa
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 47 mi48 min 47°F2 ft
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 49 mi39 min ESE 8.9 G 11 50°F 1022.9 hPa

Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Edenton, Northeastern Regional Airport, NC12 mi53 minESE 810.00 miFair56°F39°F55%1023 hPa
Elizabeth City C/G Regional Airport, NC16 mi39 minE 810.00 miFair55°F34°F45%1022.8 hPa

Wind History from EDE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6S3S7S5S5S5SE5E8E8E6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE7E7
1 day agoNW8W6NW5NW6NW8NW4NW4E6E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE5NE5NE4NE4NE7NE7NE8
2 days agoSW15
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Tide / Current Tables for Currituck Beach Light, North Carolina
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Currituck Beach Light
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:53 AM EDT     4.03 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:18 PM EDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:33 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:18 PM EDT     3.68 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.20.31.22.23.23.843.73210.2-0.2-0.10.51.42.43.23.73.63210.1

Tide / Current Tables for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina (2)
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Duck Pier
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:53 AM EDT     3.82 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:14 PM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:33 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:18 PM EDT     3.50 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.20.31.12.133.63.83.52.81.90.90.2-0.2-0.10.51.42.33.13.53.42.81.90.90.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.