Thursday, July27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elizabeth City, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 8:15PM Thursday July 27, 2017 8:50 PM EDT (00:50 UTC) Moonrise 9:38AMMoonset 10:11PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 645 Pm Edt Thu Jul 27 2017
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then showers and tstms likely in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Sat..W winds around 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the morning.
Sat night..NW winds around 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Sun night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft, then 1 ft.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elizabeth City, NC
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location: 36.25, -76.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 272359
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
759 pm edt Thu jul 27 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure affects the region Friday through Saturday... With
a cold front pushing across the region Friday night. Low
pressure lingers near the mid atlantic coast Sunday through at
least Monday night.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
Latest regional radar mosaic depicts a line of showers and
thunderstorms pushing into the piedmont, just on the edge of the
forecast area. This area of convection is associated with a
shortwave pushing into the mid-atlantic region. Air mass remains
warm and unstable over the local area, with mixed-layer cape
values of 1000-1500 j kg. Latest hi-res guidance continues to
indicate the line of showers thunderstorms will diminish in
coverage dissipate as it pushes across the piedmont into central
virginia as the instability wanes, the convection outruns the
deepest moisture coming over the mountains, and downslope flow
impacts the storms. Have lowered pops central virginia toward
the coast this evening so 30-50%, keeping likely pops confined
to the piedmont. Some re-development is possible late this
evening through the overnight period near the coast, as outflows
interact with increasing moisture and the shortwave drops over
the region. Based on the warm moist air mass, and energy
embedded in the northwest flow, will keep chance pops through
the overnight period inland. Mild tonight with plenty of cloud
cover and a light southwest breeze. Lows in the low to mid 70's.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Sunday
Potent shortwave compact upper low currently over southwest
ontario, digs across the great lakes region into the ohio valley
Friday. An associated area of low pressure deepens and tracks
from the ohio valley into northern virginia Friday afternoon.

The trailing cold front is expected to sweep across the central
appalachians late Friday, with a pre-frontal trough over the
piedmont Friday afternoon. The air mass over the local area will
be warm and quite moist with dewpoints in the low to mid 70's
and precipitable waters in excess of 2 inches (+2 standard
deviations). While mid-level lapse rates again will be rather
modest, theta-e advection and temperatures in the 80's result in
mixed layer CAPE values of 1000-15000 j kg. Mid-level flow
increases ahead of the shortwave, resulting in deep layer shear
of 25 to 30 knots. Expect scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms to spread over the northern local area Friday
morning through the afternoon as the low tracks into the region.

Some mid-level drying expected Friday morning into the
afternoon across central and southern virginia, resulting in
some breaks in the clouds and plenty of opportunity to warm into
at least the mid 80's. Latest short term guidance indicates
scattered to numerous showers developing ahead of the pre-
frontal trough mid afternoon, and quickly pushing eastward.

Another area of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
possible along the cold front as it pushes through the region
Friday evening. Given the increasing mid level flow,
broken bowing convective segments are possible with damaging
wind gusts possible. SPC maintains a slight risk for severe
weather across the region. Meanwhile, an extended period of
showers thunderstorms expected across the northern local area as
the low stalls and deepens. There still remains some spatial
differences in the short term guidance with respect to the
surface low, but general consensus is across the delmarva. The
canadian remains a southern outlier. Given the pivot point and
strong 850mb u components over the delmarva, expect periods of
heavy rainfall Friday afternoon through Friday night over the
maryland eastern shore. Given 3 hour flash flood guidance of 2-3
inches and inter-office coordination, have hoisted a flash
flood watch for the maryland eastern shore for Friday afternoon
through Saturday afternoon. Flooding could be exacerbated during
periods of high tide.

Mid-level dry air entrainment across inland virginia late
Friday night will result in drying conditions inland. However,
likely pops persist along the coast. The surface low slides just
offshore Saturday as the upper low digs over the mid-atlantic.

Deepest moisture pushes offshore Saturday morning, but the
combination of strong upper level dynamics and plenty of remnant
moisture (precipitable waters of 1.5 to 1.75 inches) will
result in ongoing showers and embedded thunder through the day
Saturday. Best coverage again from the northern neck to the
maryland eastern shore. Below normal temperatures forecast due
to clouds, showers, and a northwest winds of 10-15 mph. Highs
only in the upper 70's to mid 80's. Model consensus centers the
upper low along the mid-atlantic coast early Sunday morning,
with ongoing chances for showers along the coast, especially the
maryland eastern shore. Cool Saturday night, with lows in the
low to mid 60's.

Sunday temperature forecast will be a challenge given the
uncertainty in the guidance. Strong cold advection expected as
850mb temps drop to around 10-12c. Add in considerable
cloudiness, and daytime temperatures will be near 2 standard
deviations below normal. Highs forecast now in the mid to upper
70's. If the GFS mex guidance pans out, a few record low max
temperatures may be in jeopardy. North to northeast winds could
gust to 25-30 mph near the coast Sunday afternoon. Chance pops
linger along the coast.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
Low confidence forecast early next week as the models continue to
offer up different solutions on just how slow and far off the coast
the cut off low tracks. Favoring a ECMWF track ivof the gulf stream,
combined with lingering upper level energy, decided to hold onto chc
pops generally along and east of i95 Sun night Mon as the low slowly
lifts NE along the coast. Rather breezy over eastern sections with
continued marine issues early next week. Otw, high pressure over the
mts keeps the rest of the fa dry. Lows Sun nite from the upr 50s nw
to near 70 se. Highs Mon in the upr 70s-lwr 80s except mid 70s at
the beaches. Lows in the 60s to nr 70 sern beach areas.

High pressure builds across the region for the mid week period.

Highs Tue in the mid-upr 80s except upr 70s at the beaches. Lows in
the mid 60s-lwr 70s. Highs Wed thus 85-90. Moisture returns from the
west thurs afternoon. Added slght chc diurnal pops to the
piedmont.

Aviation 00z Friday through Tuesday
Rather unsettled weather can be expected over the next 24-48
hours as a series of disturbances move across the region.

Showers and thunderstorms currently over the mountains will move
into the piedmont and coastal plain this evening and tonight.

A few light showers may affect ric early while there will be a
chance for some patchy heavier rain during the overnight. Expect
only a slight chance for a thunderstorm at any of the TAF sites
tonight. MVFR CIGS will be possible late tonight into early
fri, then a chance for MVFR ifr CIGS and rain as a series of
weak disturbances move through during the day. A stronger
disturbance moves into the area from the NW by Friday
afternoon evening, potentially bringing strong to severe storms
into the region.

This next disturbance low pressure system will slow down just
off the coast for the weekend. This will allow for steady rain
especailly at sby and expected MVFR or ifr CIGS for much of the
weekend. Improving weather for early next week.

Marine
Some southerly channeling noted across the bay tonight but will keep
wind speeds below SCA levels for now. SW winds AOB 15 kts continue
through Fri nite ahead of a cold front.

A fairly strong cold front (by mid summer standards) will cross the
area early Sat shifting the winds to the N by the afternoon then ne
at nite. A decent surged noted behind this feature which will result
in SCA level winds late Sat sat nite. Meanwhile, another area of low
prs progged to develop along this boundary but uncertainity remains
as to this features speed and track. Will hold off on any headline
attm given a late 4th period starting time. Although some of the
data across the northern coastal waters Sun and Sun nite is rather
impressive for the summer, have capped gusts below gale force for
now. Plenty of time to adjust (higher or lower) if needed. Seas
build into the SCA range as well, but capped heights across the
northern coastal waters at 8 feet.

Contitions slowly improve by mid week but lingering NE swell will
likely result in marine issues through mid week.

Tides coastal flooding
Water levels in the upper bay (mainly eastern side adjacent to
the md eastern shore) approached minor flooding thresholds
early this morning and will continue the coastal flood
statement mainly for cambridge through 10 am. An additional
statement may be needed for tonight.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Flash flood watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday
afternoon for mdz021>025.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Bmd sam
near term... Sam
short term... Sam
long term... Mpr
aviation... Mrd jef
marine... Mpr
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 25 mi50 min S 14 G 17 82°F 73°F1013 hPa (-0.5)
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 27 mi50 min 74°F3 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 33 mi45 min 73°F3 ft
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 37 mi50 min S 5.1 G 7 84°F1012.3 hPa (-0.3)
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 45 mi50 min SSW 7 G 9.9 84°F 1012.2 hPa (-0.4)
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 47 mi50 min SSW 16 G 18 82°F1014.1 hPa (-0.4)
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 48 mi50 min 81°F1012.3 hPa (-0.5)
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 48 mi50 min S 8 G 11 83°F

Wind History for Duck, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Elizabeth City C/G Regional Airport, NC2 mi56 minS 810.00 miFair82°F73°F77%1013.3 hPa
Currituck, Currituck County Airport, NC15 mi55 minS 310.00 miFair83°F71°F69%1013.5 hPa
Edenton, Northeastern Regional Airport, NC24 mi65 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F74°F73%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from ECG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7E7E6SE6CalmSE3SE3S3CalmS3SW3CalmS5SW7SW8W9S9S8SW9S8
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1 day agoNE9NE8NE8NE7NE8E5E4NE6NE5NE5CalmNE6E9NE8E8E7E9E8E8E7E6E7E9E9
2 days agoSW5SW6SW7SW7SW8SW5SW7SW7SW8W6W7NW6N9NE10N5N8NE7NE12NE10E9E9NE10NE13NE11

Tide / Current Tables for Currituck Beach Light, North Carolina
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Currituck Beach Light
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:08 AM EDT     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:35 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:22 AM EDT     4.04 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:27 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:09 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:32 PM EDT     3.95 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.93.120.9-0-0.3-0.20.51.52.73.643.93.52.61.60.70.20.20.71.52.53.43.9

Tide / Current Tables for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina
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Duck Pier
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:14 AM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:35 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:25 AM EDT     3.71 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:32 PM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:09 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:35 PM EDT     3.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.7320.90.2-0.2-0.10.41.32.43.23.73.63.22.51.50.70.30.30.61.32.23.13.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.