Sunrise 6:15 AM   Sunset 7:50 PM Moonrise 9:56 PM   Moonset 6:34 AM

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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 307 Pm Edt Thu Apr 4 2019
Tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Fri night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.Sat - W winds around 5 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Sat night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening. Sun - N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.Sun night - SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.

AMZ100 1034 Pm Edt Thu Apr 25 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - Reinforcing northeasterly surge of winds impacts area waters tonight as high pressure builds into the area from the northeast. Sca conditions continue soundside through tonight, while seas remain elevated north of cape hatteras into early Sat morning. Benign coastal conditions likely through the rest of the period.

FXUS61 KAKQ 260549 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 149 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

SYNOPSIS
Strong high pressure will anchor itself over the Northeast through Friday, before shifting offshore this weekend. A significant warm up begins Sunday and last through the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
As of 150 AM EDT Friday...

Onshore flow has resulted in a stratus layer over NE NC and far S VA early this morning. While some redevelopment of this stratus layer is possible (mainly across NE NC), satellite trends suggest CAMs are overdoing sky cover with most areas currently under clear skies along the coast. A mixture of cirrus and stratus continues to develop inland with mostly cloudy to partly clear skies expected to continue tonight. Given the cloud cover inland and onshore flow along the coast, lows early this morning in the low-mid 40s inland and upper 40s along the coast are expected. Inland portions of the lower Maryland Eastern Shore should see clearing late tonight and with decoupling winds, could see lows in the mid to upper 30s this morning.
This could result in patchy frost in typically cooler, more sheltered areas, but don't think it will be widespread enough for a Frost Advisory.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
As of 325 PM EDT Thursday...

High pressure will settle over New England on Friday, keeping a weaker onshore flow regime in place. This portends another cool day Friday, with highs similar to those of today (50s at the coast, low to mid 60s inland). Look for a mostly sunny sky near the coast and a partly to mostly cloudy sky across the Piedmont. It will be a little bit milder Friday night as the airmass modifies, with lows staying in the mid 40s inland.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 325 PM EDT Thursday...

A high amplitude upper ridge axis will be in place over the eastern seaboard to begin the day on Saturday, with surface high pressure settling in just off the New England/northeast coast.
Meanwhile, a low pressure center will weaken as it drifts north across the upper midwest, sending a warm front across the Ohio River Valley and into the northern Mid-Atlantic Saturday morning. It may extend just far enough south to give us a slight chance of a rain shower, particularly across the northwest section of the CWA Elsewhere, expect a partly to mostly cloudy sky and slightly higher temperatures. Highs in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees inland, and in the low to mid 60s along the coast.

As high pressure builds offshore and settles in the western Atlantic late in the weekend through early next week, expect temperatures to quickly trend back up above normal through the period; highs jump into the 70s along the coast to low 80s inland on Sunday, with highs in the mid to upr 80s for most locations away from the immediate coast on Monday through Wednesday, before the upper ridge finally starts breaking down by the middle of next week. The next front approaches from the west Mon/Tue next week. Our next chance for showers and isolated storms will be possible with the frontal passage itself by Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 140 AM EDT Friday...

Generally light and variable winds inland and NE winds 5-10 kt along the coast continue until sunrise with E/ENE winds increasing to 5-10 kt inland and 10-15 kt with some gusts to 20 kt after mid morning today. Given the onshore flow, a low stratus layer continues to linger across far S VA and mainly NE NC early this morning with IFR CIGs . Satellite trends suggest this cloud deck will continue to move SW with CAMs suggesting some redevelopment is possible near ECG. As such, have a TEMPO for IFR CIGs at ECG through 10z with prevailing MVFR conditions (~1000 ft CIGs ). Elsewhere, CIGs were generally VFR/MVFR with additional stratus possible at RIC/PHF/ORF through mid-late morning. Clouds push W of I-95 by this afternoon with VFR conditions returning under mostly sunny skies for the local terminals (partly cloudy at RIC).

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through the weekend.

MARINE
As of 940 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs remain in effect for the lower bay, lower James, Currituck Sound, and all coastal water zones (extended the headline through 1 am Fri for the lower James).

- A prolonged period of elevated seas/waves due to onshore flow is expected into Friday night.

Large high pressure situated over the NE CONUS is building in over the local area this afternoon as last night's cold front pushes south and away from the area. There is enough of a pressure gradient between these features to allow for gusty onshore winds today.
Latest obs show NE winds of 10-15kt in the upper bay and upper rivers with 15-20kt elsewhere. Buoy obs show seas of 5-7 ft across the coastal waters. Winds will gradually diminish to 10-15kt in the bay/rivers and ~15kt over the coastal waters through the evening and overnight as the pressure gradient slackens. These conditions are expected to continue through the day Friday, then diminishing further Friday night. Continuous onshore flow means that seas will be slow to comes down under 5ft. Therefore, SCAs for the coastal waters (and mouth of the bay) likely continue into late Friday evening.

Regarding the rest of the forecast period, high pressure will build into the area this weekend before being suppressed to the south later in the week. Onshore flow persists through Sat as the high will be centered to the N. As the high pushes offshore and then south, the winds become southerly Sun, then SW Mon-Wed, at 10-15kt.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 845 PM EDT Thursday...

-Added a Coastal Flood statement for the middle peninsula and northern Neck to cover the upcoming high tide cycle. Water levels may potentially reach minor flood thresholds (or at least should be withing a few tenths) at Lewisetta, Windmill Pt, West Point, and Tappahannock.

A prolonged period of NE flow is expected to last into the weekend. Mainly nuisance flooding is possible across the lower bay, James River, VA Atlantic- facing beaches, eastern Currituck County, and Dorchester County with tonight's high tide. As such, Coastal Flood Statements are in effect for these locations. Locally minor flooding is possible along the S/W portion of the James River during this evening's high tide due to a favorable fetch of swell given NE winds. Smithfield will likely reach minor flood stage (potentially high-end minor) with Sewell's Point also showing the potential for reaching minor flood stage. As such, a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for these areas.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for VAZ089-093-095>097.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ634-656.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650- 652-654.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ658.

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Currituck Beach Light
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:14 AM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:06 AM EDT     3.37 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:02 PM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:19 PM EDT     4.04 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Currituck Beach Light, North Carolina, Tide feet

Duck Pier
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:12 AM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:06 AM EDT     2.89 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:00 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:23 PM EDT     3.79 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina, Tide feet

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