Elizabeth City, NC Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elizabeth City, NC

May 3, 2024 9:01 PM EDT (01:01 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:07 AM   Sunset 7:56 PM
Moonrise 2:35 AM   Moonset 1:56 PM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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ANZ633 Currituck Sound- 656 Pm Edt Fri May 3 2024

Tonight - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Patchy fog late this evening and early morning. A slight chance of very light drizzle after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late this evening and overnight.

Sat - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

Sat night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

Sun - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

Sun night - S winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers after midnight.

Mon - SW winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.

Mon night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.

Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.

Tue night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.

Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.

Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 656 Pm Edt Fri May 3 2024

Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
winds remain easterly and elevated behind a backdoor cold front through Saturday night. The front lifts back north Saturday night into Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elizabeth City, NC
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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 032333 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 733 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
A backdoor cold front pushes south and west of the area tonight.
On and off shower chances are expected Saturday and Sunday. Summerlike conditions return to the area for next week with daily chances of showers and storms.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Dropping temperatures expected this afternoon behind a backdoor cold front.

- On and off showers expected tonight through Saturday with the highest coverage inland.

- Becoming dreary for all areas Saturday with extensive low-level cloud cover.

Sfc obs, satellite, and radar data show the backdoor cold front quickly marching W/SW across the area. Behind the front, temps are falling quickly. It's in the 50s on the VA/MD Eastern Shore and in the 60s across Hampton Roads northwards to the Northern Neck. Ahead of the front (over the Piedmont), temps have risen into the mid and upper 80s. Thus, we are currently seeing a very impressive temperature gradient over the area (55 at Ocean City/OXB vs 87 at South Hill/AVC). Extensive low-level clouds are also slowly pushing inland from the ocean and Chesapeake Bay. Expect the front to continue advancing westward for the remainder of this afternoon. A few CAMs show a few pop-up showers or storms developing along the front given building instability (SPC mesoanalysis showing ~500-1000 J/kg across the Piedmont). Will continue a 20% PoP for these areas through the afternoon. Additional shower chances are expected overnight, with the highest coverage expected over the nrn half of the area. Not expecting any thunder tonight. Some patchy fog may also move onshore across SE VA and NE NC, but think visibilities will not get too low given the elevated winds. Lows tonight will be chillier than the previous few nights and around 50 on the MD Eastern Shore to the mid-upper 50s for the rest of the area (lower 60s down along the Albemarle Sound).

The front will be well W/SW of the area by tonight into Saturday.
Sfc high pressure will be left in its wake across New England. This will wedge a cool/moist low-level airmass over the entire area for the day Saturday. This will also keep cloudy conditions in place.
The best forcing/lift and moisture remains across the W, so expecting the highest coverage Saturday mainly W of I-95. Despite this, it will tend to remain unpleasant even towards the coast w/ onshore flow and patchy drizzle. Continue to trend highs lower with temps struggling to reach 60 across the N, with mid 60s-low 70s elsewhere. There is a chance that far SW portions of the CWA (e.g., Northampton/Bertie Counties in NC) reach the upper 70s, but this may even be overdone. These values are still below NBM (especially S).
On and off "showery" rainfall continues overnight Saturday with lows in the 50s N to 60s S. QPF through tomorrow averages from up to 0.50" across the W, 0.1-0.4" central, and 0.00" to a few hundredths of an inch closer to the coast.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Continued unsettled, but warmer, Sunday.

- More humid on Monday with showers and storms areawide.

The front is expected to lift back N Sunday into Monday, shifting the low-level flow to the S. These factors should act to scour out the dreary conditions seen on Saturday. However, still expecting shower redevelopment in the aftn hours as temps warm into the 70s and 80s and the residual front and a weak disturbance aloft remains near the area. An early look at some CAMs show that they are not particularly enthusiastic at widespread rainfall coverage, which makes sense given a lack of any focused areas of lift. Lows Sun night in the 60s.

Upper heights begin building back N for Monday with high temps warming into the low 80s areawide. Despite the warmer temps, a lee trough is expected to develop in the aftn and evening hours.
Combined w/ an approaching shortwave from the OH River Valley, showers and storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain in the afternoon and slide eastward into the evening. Models show around 1000 J/kg of CAPE developing with rather weak shear.
Therefore, the severe threat looks relatively low, but cannot rule out a stronger storm or two. Soundings do show a rather saturated atmospheric column (PWATS potentially reach or exceed 1.5"), which could lead to some heavier downpours. Dew points also increase into the mid-upper 60s so the humidity will make it feel more like early summer. Shower/storm activity diminishes inland after midnight, but may linger closer to the coast overnight. Lows remain mild in the mid 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 335 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages...

- A more summer-like pattern with warmer days and chances for late afternoon and evening showers and storms appears to be on the way for the middle to end of next week.

We get into an almost summertime pattern by Tuesday as the ridge aloft builds overhead with afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms each day being triggered by the lee side trough. The GFS and ECMWF both suggest the ridge breaks down slightly by Wed/Thu with stronger 500mb flow of up to 50 kt by Wed afternoon. Along with this, those models suggest weak shortwaves (likely of mesoscale origin from convection over the Ohio Valley and central plains)
moving through the area. These convective complexes may also move through the region from the NW, but these features are notoriously hard to predict. Although we are talking about days 5-7, the relatively strong upper flow combined with relative steep mid level lapse rates of up to 7-7.5 C/km would suggest the possibility of severe weather. Instability will certainly not be a limiting factor as temps warm into the 80s and 90s every day. At this time, the synoptic pattern for severe looks most favorable Thursday with an approaching trough and the most robust CAPE. The CSU Machine Learning Probabilities have picked up on the aforementioned parameter space and suggest at least a slight risk for severe weather on Wednesday and Thursday for the entire area and Friday for southern/southeast areas. We continue to have plenty of time to monitor this, but the area may become more active by the end of next week.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 730 PM EDT Friday...

Degraded flight conditions are expected to continue through the 00z/04 TAF period as MVFR to LIFR CIGs have already overspread the terminals in the wake of a backdoor cold front (with E-NE winds of 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt). IFR/LIFR CIGs are expected through much of the night with some improvement on Sat (to 1000-2000 ft) with continued onshore flow. In terms of precipitation, mainly dry wx is expected through 03z before more widespread shower activity approaches the W later tonight into Saturday. Cannot completely rule out thunder at RIC overnight, but the chance of this is very low. Areas of drizzle are also possible through Sat AM. Shower chances continue on Saturday (highest PoPs at RIC w/ lesser chances near the coast).

Outlook...Sub-VFR conditions expected at times through the weekend and even into Monday due to an unsettled weather pattern. Scattered showers and tstms are expected on both Sunday and Monday. A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns by Tuesday with chances for storms each afternoon/evening.

MARINE
As of 710 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been extended for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River through Saturday night.

- Small Craft Advisories for the seas north of the Virginia/North Carolina border have been extended until 1 AM Saturday.

- Winds of 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt will diminish a bit later tonight into Saturday morning before increasing Saturday.

Winds behind the backdoor cold front remain 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt this evening (lower across the NC coastal waters).
Winds diminish some overnight but should still gust to 20 kt through the night. Winds ramp back up Sat afternoon into Sat night with gusts to 25 kt. Winds become ESE late Sat night as a warm front lifts N. Waves remain 2-4 ft during this time.
Given the gusts to 20 kt between the two surges, have opted to extend SCAs through Sat night to account for both surges for the Ches Bay and Lower James. Additionally, with seas of 4-6 ft this evening N of the VA/NC border and persistent E flow, seas should be slow to subside to 4 ft tonight. As such, have extended SCAs for all coastal waters N of the VA/NC border until 1 AM Sat.

The front lifts back N on Sunday, shifting winds to the SE/SSE.
SSW winds return for Monday through the middle of next week (but likely remain sub-SCA).Southerly flow looks as though it will persist through most of next week with the next backdoor cold front possible some time Friday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 300 PM EDT Friday...

Have issues a Coastal Flood Statement for locations in the upper Bay as tides increase and approach minor flood levels later on Saturday. Tidal departures will increase overnight due to winds persisting onshore from the E or ENE. Moderate levels are not expected (except perhaps locally at Bishops Head), so no Coastal Flood Watches are anticipated.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ638.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652- 654-656.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 25 mi44 min NE 14G16 58°F 30.09
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 27 mi36 min 61°F4 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 33 mi32 min 58°F 62°F5 ft
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 37 mi44 min ENE 4.1G11 57°F 65°F30.10
44086 45 mi36 min 62°F4 ft
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 45 mi44 min E 13G17 56°F 30.10
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 47 mi44 min NE 7G11 61°F 73°F30.11
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 48 mi44 min E 18G21 55°F 30.12
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 48 mi44 min 63°F30.14


Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KECG ELIZABETH CITY CG AIR STATION/RGNL,NC 2 sm67 minNE 151 smOvercast Mist 61°F57°F88%30.08
KONX CURRITUCK COUNTY RGNL,NC 14 sm36 minNE 053/4 smOvercast Mist 59°F57°F94%30.10
KEDE NORTHEASTERN RGNL,NC 24 sm36 minE 1010 smOvercast66°F66°F100%30.07
Link to 5 minute data for KECG


Wind History from ECG
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Currituck Beach Light, North Carolina
   
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Currituck Beach Light
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Fri -- 03:34 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:41 AM EDT     3.60 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:04 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:16 PM EDT     3.72 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:37 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Currituck Beach Light, North Carolina, Tide feet
12
am
1.5
1
am
2.3
2
am
3
3
am
3.5
4
am
3.6
5
am
3.3
6
am
2.6
7
am
1.8
8
am
1.1
9
am
0.5
10
am
0.2
11
am
0.4
12
pm
1
1
pm
1.8
2
pm
2.7
3
pm
3.4
4
pm
3.7
5
pm
3.6
6
pm
3.1
7
pm
2.3
8
pm
1.5
9
pm
0.7
10
pm
0.2
11
pm
0.2



Tide / Current for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina
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Duck Pier
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Fri -- 03:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:37 AM EDT     3.33 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:59 AM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:19 PM EDT     3.35 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:33 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina, Tide feet
12
am
1.3
1
am
2.1
2
am
2.8
3
am
3.3
4
am
3.3
5
am
3
6
am
2.5
7
am
1.7
8
am
0.8
9
am
0.2
10
am
-0
11
am
0.2
12
pm
0.7
1
pm
1.5
2
pm
2.3
3
pm
3
4
pm
3.3
5
pm
3.3
6
pm
2.9
7
pm
2.2
8
pm
1.4
9
pm
0.6
10
pm
0.1
11
pm
0.1




Weather Map
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Wakefield, VA,



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