Marine Weather and Tides
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|Sunrise 6:54AM||Sunset 6:58PM||Tuesday September 25, 2018 8:39 AM EDT (12:39 UTC)||Moonrise 6:39PM||Moonset 6:13AM||Illumination 100%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elizabeth City, NCHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus61 kakq 251037|
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
637 am edt Tue sep 25 2018
Strong high pressure slides into the canadian maritimes today.
Low pressure approaches the mid atlantic coast from the southeast
tonight, then recurves to the northeast and tracks across the virginia
capes Wednesday. A cold front moves into the region Wednesday night,
then stalls across the southern part of the local area Thursday.
Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 630 am edt Tuesday...
latest msas shows the frontal boundary nearly stationary along
the va nc coastal plain with the wedge holding firm across the
piedmont but starting to show signs of eroding closer to the
ches bay. Meanwhile, a weak tropical low is about 300 miles se
of hat. Whether this system gets upgraded or not today, it will
make for a rather interesting forecast as this low approaches
the carolina coast late this afternoon. I am always lery of any
tropical circulation nearing the coast (especially during peak
Before that occurs, the e-se flow ahead of this system will
likely allow the wedge to erode as the strong high to the
north moves farther east. What this will do is allow the airmass
to become more tropical in nature after the morning crud burns
off. Given plenty of residual low level moisture and the
advancing tropical moisture, will have likely pops across the
sern zones this aftrn. Can't rule out sct shwrs tstrms as far
west as the i95 corridor and ERN shore with slght chcs across
the WRN piedmont. Summer heat humidity return with highs from
the upr 70s NW zones to the low-mid 80s.
Short term 6 pm this evening through Thursday
As of 330 am edt Tuesday...
the tropical low is progged to "re-curve" along the gulf stream wall
tonight then turn NE and accelerate across the vacapes ahead of an
approaching cold front wed. Moisture fields suggest any significant
pops will be confined to coastal areas as the low pushes NE late
tonite. Otw, a warm and humid night ahead with lows from the upr 60s
nw to lwr 70s se. Some fog shud develop in most areas after midnite.
Some lingering shwrs along the coast Wed morning, but most of the area
remains dry thru abt 18z ahead of the apprchg cold front. Expect enough
heating for temps to quickly rise into the mid- upr 80s. (no where near
the record highs which are in the mid 90s). Moisture quickly moves east
of the mts after 18z with shwrs tstrms expected to overspread the area
west to east late in the aftrn. Will maintain likely pops across the
west with chc pops east. Any severe threat remains north of the fa, but
would not be surprised to see a few strong storms across the
far NRN zones late with the threat being gusty winds and hvy
The front slows to a crawl Wed night keeping likely to high chc pops
across the local area. Thunder chcs shift to the SRN zones after
midnight as the winds across the NRN half of the fa turn north. Lows
60 NW to lwr 70s se.
Deja vu Thursday. Models show the front stalled across the carolinas
with low pressure resulting in another overrunning insitu-wedge
scenario across the local area. Thus, will carry likely pops
for now with highs ranging from the mid 60s NW to near 80 se.
Long term Thursday night through Monday
As of 305 pm edt Monday...
forecast period starts with a cold front pushing through the
area on Friday, as broad high pressure builds to the north of
the area Friday night into Saturday. GFS remains a bit quicker
to bring cooler and drier air through post-frontal during the
day on Friday, so did lower pop slightly Friday afternoon, but
did maintain a slight chance mention for all but far NW piedmont
zones. Weekend looking a bit cooler and drier, or at least
relatively speaking... As temperatures look to fall back toward
climo normal W high pressure building over the region. Highs
generally range from the upper 70s to lower 80s Friday through
Sunday with dewpoints dropping off slightly each day late Friday
into the weekend. Lows generally upper 50s to low 60s inland
and upper 60s to low 70s at the coast.
Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 630 am edt Tuesday...
latest msas has the frontal boundary stationary along the va nc
coast with high pressure to the north continuing the wedge the
ifr st over the piedmont. The wedge has eroded along the coast
cigs lifting to MVFRVFR. Radar showing sct shwrs lifting north
across the northern zones with shwrs from the offshore low apprchg
the outer banks. High res data continues to show the ifr MVFR
cigs along with periodic light rain and areas of fog continuing
through mid morning over the piedmont with MVFRVFR along the
Low pressure apprchs the area from the SE this afternoon then
recurves to the NE late tonight and wed. Expect the airmass to
become more tropical in nature ahead of its approach, basically
washing out the wedge this aftrn. Could see a brief subsidence
area ahead it the system for a few hrs this aftrn, but plenty|
of moisture is left behind for sct-bkn convection to develop
across the ERN half of the fa. Greatest threat area be be along
the coast. Thus, expect MVFRVFR CIGS with sct shwrs after 18z.
Kept thunder out of any forecast for now given low confidence of
when and where any thunder will occur. Bests chcs are at orf ecg.
Pcpn tapers off after 00z tonight except for sct shwrs
continuing along the coast as the low passes by.
Outlook... More numerous and widespread convection expected late
wed and Wed night along and ahead of a cold front that is
progged to stall south of the area, resulting in another
ifr MVFR day along with periods of rain and fog Thursday.
As of 345 am edt Tuesday...
a weak frontal boundary is in the process of lifting north
across the southern half of the marine area early this morning.
Meanwhile, sfc high pressure is situated along the new england
coast, while low pressure resides about 250 miles sse of cape
hatteras. The aforementioned frontal boundary washes out over
the local area today, as high pressure retreats east into the
canadian maritimes. Additionally, low pressure will continue to
lift north off the carolina coast today. Will allow scas for the
bay and rivers to expire at 4am as the easterly surge wanes to
10-15 kt. Winds the remainder of today are expected to become se
by this afternoon at similar speeds. Seas 4-6 ft S and 5-9 ft n
this morning will become 4-6 ft all coastal waters this
The offshore low should continue to track northward tonight and
eventually push well offshore of the mid-atlantic coast during
Wednesday as a cold front approaches from the west late. Nhc
will continue to monitor this feature for possible development.
Regardless of whether it becomes a tropical cyclone or not, it
does have the potential to bring some locally heavy rain to the
nc obx today and tonight. Winds veer from the SE this evening to
the ssw late tonight and Wed at 10-15kt in advance of the
approaching front. Winds then turn to the NW and N post-frontal
wed night and Thursday but remain sub-sca. We will have to deal
with seas remaining elevated through at least Wed night (4-6 ft)
and thus scas for the coastal waters have been extended in time.
Tides coastal flooding
As of 515 am edt Tuesday...
waters levels will remain elevated through at least the next
high tide cycle late this morning (atlantic side) or afternoon
(bay side) as tidal anomalies remain ~1.5 ft above normal. Will
continue a coastal flood advisory from the middle peninsula
over to accomack county on north, as well as an additional
coastal flood advisory for areas adjacent the upper james river
from jamestown to hopewell. Coastal flood statements will be in
place for the lower peninsula and southside hampton roads as
well as worcester county md for water levels approaching minor
With winds lessening and becoming SE and then S later today into
Wednesday, expect the anomalies will lower a bit so that
locations across the lower bay and adjacent the atlantic ocean
will stay below minor flooding thresholds. However, water levels
across the middle upr bay, especially on the lower md eastern
shore and adjacent the potomac river, will likely remain
elevated into Wednesday and likely necessitate an extension of
coastal flooding headlines.
Kdox is offline due to an equipment issue. Parts are on order
and technicians hope to have radar online after parts are
received. However, no return to service time is available at
Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Coastal flood advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for
Va... Coastal flood advisory until 3 pm edt this afternoon for
Coastal flood advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for
Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 am edt Thursday for anz650-652-
Small craft advisory until 1 am edt Thursday for anz656-658.
near term... Mpr
short term... Mpr
long term... Ajb mam
tides coastal flooding... Jdm
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|FRFN7||25 mi||160 min||6 ft|
|DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370||25 mi||40 min||78°F||79°F||1022.7 hPa (+0.7)|
|44056 - Duck FRF, NC||26 mi||40 min||78°F||6 ft|
|44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430)||33 mi||55 min||77°F||6 ft|
|MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA||37 mi||40 min||75°F||81°F||1023.4 hPa (+0.9)|
|44086||45 mi||45 min||76°F||7 ft|
|ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC||47 mi||46 min||76°F||80°F||1022.8 hPa|
|SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA||48 mi||40 min||79°F||1023.7 hPa (+0.8)|
|CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA||48 mi||40 min||77°F||1022.1 hPa (+0.8)|
Wind History for Duck, NC(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off)  Help
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports
|Elizabeth City C/G Regional Airport, NC||2 mi||46 min||NE 6||10.00 mi||Fair||76°F||75°F||97%||1023.2 hPa|
|Edenton, Northeastern Regional Airport, NC||24 mi||55 min||N 3||7.00 mi||Fair||73°F||73°F||100%||1023.4 hPa|
Wind History from ECG (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||E||E||SE||SE||E||E||E||SE||E||E||SE||E||NE||W||Calm||Calm||W||W||N||NW||NW||N||N||N|
|2 days ago||SW||SW||SW||SW||S||SW||SW||SE||SE||E||E||E||SE||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||NE |
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (8,2,3,4)(on/off)  Help
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