Thursday, February22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Aulander, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 6:00PM Thursday February 22, 2018 9:06 PM EST (02:06 UTC) Moonrise 10:53AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 709 Pm Est Thu Feb 22 2018
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E late this evening, then becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft. Areas of fog after midnight. Vsby 1 nm or less late.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. Areas of fog in the morning with vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Sat night..S winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se. Waves 1 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aulander, NC
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location: 36.29, -77.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 230104
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
804 pm est Thu feb 22 2018

Synopsis
A frontal boundary stalls across the region tonight, then lifts
back north as a warm front Friday. Another cold front crosses
the area late Sunday.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
Dramatic drop in temperatures have occurred over SE and parts of
srn va the past couple of hours as backdoor cold front makes
push s. Readings... After being in the 70s... Down in the u40s to
50s while warm sector remains over far south central va and ne
nc. The shallow front to keep pushing S this eve... Eventually
through NE nc. Additionally... Lo CIGS (st) along and N of the
front... And will be adding fg near the coast. Patchy areas
of -dz overnight. NE winds now gusty to 20-30 mph as colder air
spreads s... Should wane a bit overnight.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Sunday
Models are fairly quick to move the boundary back north as a warm
front fri. Plenty of low level moisture noted to keep low chc
stratiformed pops across the north thru 18z, then the lower levels
dry out a bit as the fa becomes warmed sectored. Another tricky temp
forecast as the numbers will depend on how much Sun occurs. Highs in
the low-mid 50s north, upr 50s-mid 60s south, 65-70 across NRN nc.

Fa remains in the warm sectored Fri nite. Not much support for pcpn
but fog will be a good bet, especially after midnite. Lows 45-50
north, in the 50s south.

Offshore ridge builds back into the area sat. Moisture slowly incrs
with the best support for pcpn across the NW Sat aftrn and eve. Otw,
pt suny to mstly cldy and warmer. Highs in the low-mid 60s ERN shore
with the 70s west of the bay. Lows Sat nite in the lwr 50s-lwr 60s.

The next cold front approaches from the west Sun morning with the
fropa in the aftrn eve. Models depict a decent feed of moisture
across the mts but it weakens as it moves east into the piedmont.

Will keep the chc pops after 18z for now. Highs in the 60s ern
shore, 70s west of the bay.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
No major changes expected the the day 4-7 forecast. Still expecting
a cold frontal passage Sunday night into Monday. The front will be
slowing down as it approaches the area as it becomes nearly parallel
to the upper flow aloft. As such, will need to maintain chance pops
sun night into Monday for all locations. Am expecting everyone to
see some light rain at some point, and guidance pointed to likely
pops both Sun night into Monday. However, given that the rain will
be light and not continuous, we opted to just include chance of rain
showers for that period. Once the front moves south of the area, dry
canadian high pressure will build across the middle atlantic by
Tuesday, then offshore wed. The next chance for showers will be
Thursday as the guidance suggests strong warm advection ahead of a
deepening mississippi valley low pressure system.

Despite the cool down from this week, temperatures will still be
above normal with temperatures in the upper 50-mid 60s and lows in
the upper 30s mid 40s.

Aviation 01z Friday through Tuesday
Backdoor cold front now S of all sites except for ecg... That
will occur most likely by 03-04z. Period of st... Ifr lifr cigs
and -dz into through Fri morning beore CIGS slowly gradually
rise (to at MVFR - slowest to occur at sby) as front retreats
back N as warm front Fri afternoon eve. Region back into the
warm sector Fri night-sun (though there may be sct shras). The
next front will cross the area late sun... W another period of
cig vsby restrictions possible during that period.

Marine
Went ahead and put up a small craft advisory for all of the bay
and lower james until 06z. Winds are gusting out of the N NE in
excess of 20 knots with the surge behind the front. Winds should
begin to lighten up after 06z. Also went ahead and expanded the
small craft advisory in the ocean to include parramore island to
cape charles light as seas will likely build to 5 feet in
portions of the zone and a few gusts to 25 knots can't also be
ruled out. Finally, issued a dense fog advisory for the lower
bay, southern ocean zones, and currituck sound until 06z per
recent observations and cams.

Previous discussion: the front is currently bisecting the
marine area as it has been slow to move southward this afternoon
due to the strong ridge to the south. However, after sunset,
expect the front to rapidly move southward, reaching the
southern coastal waters by later this evening. All marine areas
should have northerly winds tonight. Will maintain small craft
conditions across the northern coastal waters tonight due to
wind and seas, however even the bay will will choppy with north
winds around 15kt.

Expect the front to surge back north of the waters on Friday Friday
evening , with southerly flow developing and continuing through the
weekend. By Saturday night into Sunday, southerly winds may allow
for small craft conditions again over the coastal waters ahead of a
cold front. This cold front will pass through the waters on Monday
with NW winds expected Tue Wed as canadian high pressure builds into
the ohio tennessee valley regions.

Climate
Record highs and record high mins were set at richmond,
salisbury, and elizabeth city Wed 2 21. At norfolk, the record
high was tied and the record high min was set. See rer products
for details. For today 2 22, record highs and record high mins
will be possible and these values are listed below.

**please note, record high mins like record highs are calendar
date values so the the records are not complete this morning
(temperature needs to stay up through midnight tonight).

* date: today Thu 2 22
* site: record high... Record high min
* ric: 73 (1985) 52 (1913)
* orf: 77 (1937) 55 (1878)
* sby: 70 (1997) 50 (1996)
* ecg: 77 (2003) 56 (1997)
very warm temperatures will continue through the weekend, record
highs are listed for Sat 2 24 and Sun 2 25.

* record highs
* site: Sat 2 24... ... Sun 2 25
* ric: 82 (1985) 83 (1930)
* orf: 82 (2012) 81 (2017)
* sby: 77 (2012) 80 (1930)
* ecg: 79 (1985) 78 (2017)

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Dense fog advisory until 1 am est Friday for anz632>634-656-
658.

Small craft advisory until 1 am est Friday for anz630>632-634-
638.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est Friday for anz650-652-654.

Synopsis... Mpr
near term... Alb mpr
short term... Mpr
long term... Ajb mrd
aviation... Alb mpr
marine... Ajb mrd
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 54 mi48 min NNE 8.9 G 15 53°F1032.7 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 57 mi48 min NNE 18 G 25 1032.7 hPa

Wind History for Money Point, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ahoskie, Tri-County Airport, NC4 mi71 minN 010.00 miFair62°F59°F93%1030.1 hPa

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Last 24hrS4S3S4S3S4S3CalmS3SW3CalmS3S3SW3SW4SW4SW6SW4SW5S5SW5S3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoS6S4S4S4S5S4S4CalmS3CalmCalmS4SW5S4SW3SW6SW4SW5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Suffolk, Nansemond River, Virginia
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Suffolk
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:51 AM EST     3.92 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:12 AM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:50 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:17 PM EST     3.34 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:53 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:22 PM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.23.13.83.93.62.92.11.20.50.20.30.81.62.433.33.22.71.91.10.3-0.1-00.5

Tide / Current Tables for Suffolk, Virginia
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Suffolk
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:55 AM EST     3.90 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:14 AM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:50 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:18 PM EST     3.39 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:53 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:22 PM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.23.13.73.93.632.11.20.50.20.30.81.52.433.43.32.821.10.3-0.100.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.