Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Aulander, NC
May 4, 2024 9:50 AM EDT (13:50 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:11 AM Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 3:08 AM Moonset 3:12 PM |
AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 307 Pm Edt Thu Apr 4 2019
Tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Fri night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Sat - W winds around 5 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Sun - N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night - SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
AMZ100 617 Am Edt Sat May 4 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - Cold front stalled over the area where it will linger into early next week. Benign winds/seas through the weekend but shower and tstorm activity to increase. Guidance continues to suggest sea fog development across area waters through at least Saturday.
Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 041048 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 648 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024
SYNOPSIS
On and off shower chances are expected Saturday and Sunday.
Summerlike conditions return to the area for next week with daily chances of showers and storms.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 310 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
-Dreary conditions across the entire forecast area today with extensive low-level cloud cover and scattered showers.
Yesterday's backdoor cold front is situated just south of the FA early this morning. High pressure over New England is wedging cool, moist air into the Mid-Atlantic. With the front projected to stay S of the area today, expect a dreary Saturday. Latest radar shows scattered showers, primarily W of I-95. Chances for showers will continue through the day, but with the best forcing/lift and moisture remaining to the W, the highest coverage will continue to be over the piedmont. Closer to the coast, low level moisture from onshore flow will allow for patchy drizzle to continue through the morning. Minimal thunder is expected today, but could have a few rumbles in SW counties this evening. Easterly winds will be breezy E of I-95, especially near the coast, with gusts of 15-25mph.
Temps today will be cool across far northern portions of the FA. Highs will struggle to even reach 60F. Far southern portions will likely see a few breaks in the clouds and winds will have a slight southerly component, allowing for warmer temps in the mid 70s. The gradient between these warmer temps and the rest of the FA will likely be sharp, so expect most will see cooler highs in the 60s.
Showers in the far western counties increase in coverage overnight with lower end chances extending E to the coast. The front will start to move back N overnight, leading to stable if not slightly increasing temps late tonight/early Sunday. Lows will be in the low- mid 50s across the N and low 60s in the S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 330 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Continued unsettled, but warmer, Sunday.
- More humid on Monday with showers and storms areawide.
The front is expected to lift back N Sunday into Monday, shifting the low-level flow to the S. These factors should act to scour out the dreary conditions seen on Saturday. However, still expecting shower redevelopment in the aftn hours as temps warm into the 70s (and maybe as high as 80) and the residual front and a weak disturbance aloft remains near the area. An early look at some CAMs show that they are not particularly enthusiastic at widespread rainfall coverage, which makes sense given a lack of any focused areas of lift. Lows Sun night in the 60s.
Upper heights begin building back N for Monday with high temps warming into the low 80s areawide. Despite the warmer temps, a lee trough is expected to develop in the aftn and evening hours.
Combined w/ an approaching shortwave from the OH River Valley, showers and storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain in the afternoon and slide eastward into the evening. Mean LREF CAPE shows ~750 J/KG, but shear looks to be rather weak. Therefore, the severe threat looks relatively low, but cannot rule out a stronger storm or two. Soundings do show a rather saturated atmospheric column (PWATS potentially reach or exceed 1.5"), which could lead to some heavier downpours. Dew points also increase into the mid-upper 60s so the humidity will make it feel more like early summer.
Shower/storm activity diminishes inland after midnight, but may linger closer to the coast overnight. Lows remain mild in the mid 60s.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 330 PM EDT Saturday...
Key messages:
-A summer-like pattern will bring unsettled conditions and above- normal temps.
-There is the potential for severe weather mid to late week.
An unsettled, summertime pattern takes over through the end of the week. A ridge aloft builds in Tuesday, then weakens slightly starting Wednesday. The GFS and ECMWF both suggest stronger 500mb flow of up to 50 kt by Wed afternoon. Additionally, several waves of weak shortwave energy will pass over the area. As of latest guidance, the strongest of these looks to pass on Thursday ahead of an UL trough dropping into the Great Lakes. A stronger system (i.e.
cold front) will then cross the area late in the week. These features along with plentiful daytime heating/instability will allow for daily rounds of showers/thunderstorms. Will be monitoring this time period for severe weather given the support aloft and steep mid- level lapse rates. The CSU Machine Learning Probabilities have picked up on the aforementioned parameter space and suggest at least a slight risk for severe weather on Wednesday and Thursday for the entire area and Friday for southern/southeast areas. Highs on Tues will be in the upper 70s on the Eastern Shore and low 80s W of the bay. Well-above normal temps on Wed/Thurs with the potential for widespread 90 degree highs. Fri looks a bit cooler, but still in the 80s for most. Lows generally in the mid-60s.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 645 AM EDT Saturday...
Degraded flight conditions are expected to continue through the 12z/04 TAF period as IFR to LIFR CIGs continue to overspread the terminals in the wake of a backdoor cold front (with E-NE winds of 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt). IFR/LIFR CIGs are expected through much of the morning with perhaps some improvement this afternoon (to 1000-2000 ft) with continued onshore flow. In terms of precipitation, scattered showers have spread over western portions of the area, and Richmond will likely see brief periods of light rain. Areas of drizzle are also possible through this morning.
Outlook...Sub-VFR conditions expected at times through the weekend and even into Monday due to an unsettled weather pattern. Scattered showers and tstms are expected on both Sunday and Monday. A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns by Tuesday with chances for storms each afternoon/evening.
MARINE
As of 430 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River through late tonight/early Sunday morning.
- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect from Parramore Island S to the VA/NC for lingering seas to 5 ft.
With yesterday's backdoor cold front now well S of the local area, winds have generally dropped off to 10-15 kt with gusts to 15-20 kt early this morning. However, winds are expected to increase a bit later today through tonight as low pressure lifts NE into the Great Lakes with the sfc high sliding off the coast of northern New England into Atlantic Canada. Will keep the SCAs going for the Bay/lower James for E winds increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. On the ocean, have extended SCAs through 10 am for now for the zones between Parramore Island and the VA- NC border. This is where seas are still ~5ft, with 3-4 ft seas elsewhere. Depending on the increase in winds later today, these headlines may need an extension.
The front lifts back N on Sunday, shifting winds to the SE/SSE.
SSW winds return for Monday through the middle of next week (but likely remain sub-SCA). Southerly flow looks as though it will persist through most of next week with the next backdoor cold front possible some time Friday.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 440 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Upgraded the northern Neck to a Coastal Flood Advisory through Sunday for widespread minor flooding.
- Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect for the bayside of the Maryland eastern shore, with an upgrade to a Coastal Flood Advisory likely for additional rises late Sunday into Monday morning.
Tidal departures early this morning average around +1.5 ft across the Bay and tidal rivers. A strong flood tidal current Fri aftn/evening has led to increasing departures into the mid/upper Bay. The pattern of elevated E winds shifting to the ESE to SE by tonight favors going above ETSS guidance across the northern Neck. As such, a Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect in this area for the next 3 high tides through Sunday aftn (an extension through Monday morning will likely be needed). Have maintained a Coastal Flood Statement for the bayside of the MD eastern shore to cover nuisance flooding for the next 2 high tide cycles. Water levels further increase here later Sunday into early Monday with an upgrade to a Coastal Flood Advisory likely as SSE winds will tend to focus the highest departures here by that time. A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for locations on the west shore of the middle Bay to cover nuisance flooding for the next 2 high tide cycles (this may need to be extended as well). It still appears that other than locally moderate flooding at Bishops Head, this event will peak in minor flood category with the high tide cycle Sunday aftn into early Monday.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT Sunday for VAZ075>078.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ638.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ654- 656.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 648 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024
SYNOPSIS
On and off shower chances are expected Saturday and Sunday.
Summerlike conditions return to the area for next week with daily chances of showers and storms.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 310 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
-Dreary conditions across the entire forecast area today with extensive low-level cloud cover and scattered showers.
Yesterday's backdoor cold front is situated just south of the FA early this morning. High pressure over New England is wedging cool, moist air into the Mid-Atlantic. With the front projected to stay S of the area today, expect a dreary Saturday. Latest radar shows scattered showers, primarily W of I-95. Chances for showers will continue through the day, but with the best forcing/lift and moisture remaining to the W, the highest coverage will continue to be over the piedmont. Closer to the coast, low level moisture from onshore flow will allow for patchy drizzle to continue through the morning. Minimal thunder is expected today, but could have a few rumbles in SW counties this evening. Easterly winds will be breezy E of I-95, especially near the coast, with gusts of 15-25mph.
Temps today will be cool across far northern portions of the FA. Highs will struggle to even reach 60F. Far southern portions will likely see a few breaks in the clouds and winds will have a slight southerly component, allowing for warmer temps in the mid 70s. The gradient between these warmer temps and the rest of the FA will likely be sharp, so expect most will see cooler highs in the 60s.
Showers in the far western counties increase in coverage overnight with lower end chances extending E to the coast. The front will start to move back N overnight, leading to stable if not slightly increasing temps late tonight/early Sunday. Lows will be in the low- mid 50s across the N and low 60s in the S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 330 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Continued unsettled, but warmer, Sunday.
- More humid on Monday with showers and storms areawide.
The front is expected to lift back N Sunday into Monday, shifting the low-level flow to the S. These factors should act to scour out the dreary conditions seen on Saturday. However, still expecting shower redevelopment in the aftn hours as temps warm into the 70s (and maybe as high as 80) and the residual front and a weak disturbance aloft remains near the area. An early look at some CAMs show that they are not particularly enthusiastic at widespread rainfall coverage, which makes sense given a lack of any focused areas of lift. Lows Sun night in the 60s.
Upper heights begin building back N for Monday with high temps warming into the low 80s areawide. Despite the warmer temps, a lee trough is expected to develop in the aftn and evening hours.
Combined w/ an approaching shortwave from the OH River Valley, showers and storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain in the afternoon and slide eastward into the evening. Mean LREF CAPE shows ~750 J/KG, but shear looks to be rather weak. Therefore, the severe threat looks relatively low, but cannot rule out a stronger storm or two. Soundings do show a rather saturated atmospheric column (PWATS potentially reach or exceed 1.5"), which could lead to some heavier downpours. Dew points also increase into the mid-upper 60s so the humidity will make it feel more like early summer.
Shower/storm activity diminishes inland after midnight, but may linger closer to the coast overnight. Lows remain mild in the mid 60s.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 330 PM EDT Saturday...
Key messages:
-A summer-like pattern will bring unsettled conditions and above- normal temps.
-There is the potential for severe weather mid to late week.
An unsettled, summertime pattern takes over through the end of the week. A ridge aloft builds in Tuesday, then weakens slightly starting Wednesday. The GFS and ECMWF both suggest stronger 500mb flow of up to 50 kt by Wed afternoon. Additionally, several waves of weak shortwave energy will pass over the area. As of latest guidance, the strongest of these looks to pass on Thursday ahead of an UL trough dropping into the Great Lakes. A stronger system (i.e.
cold front) will then cross the area late in the week. These features along with plentiful daytime heating/instability will allow for daily rounds of showers/thunderstorms. Will be monitoring this time period for severe weather given the support aloft and steep mid- level lapse rates. The CSU Machine Learning Probabilities have picked up on the aforementioned parameter space and suggest at least a slight risk for severe weather on Wednesday and Thursday for the entire area and Friday for southern/southeast areas. Highs on Tues will be in the upper 70s on the Eastern Shore and low 80s W of the bay. Well-above normal temps on Wed/Thurs with the potential for widespread 90 degree highs. Fri looks a bit cooler, but still in the 80s for most. Lows generally in the mid-60s.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 645 AM EDT Saturday...
Degraded flight conditions are expected to continue through the 12z/04 TAF period as IFR to LIFR CIGs continue to overspread the terminals in the wake of a backdoor cold front (with E-NE winds of 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt). IFR/LIFR CIGs are expected through much of the morning with perhaps some improvement this afternoon (to 1000-2000 ft) with continued onshore flow. In terms of precipitation, scattered showers have spread over western portions of the area, and Richmond will likely see brief periods of light rain. Areas of drizzle are also possible through this morning.
Outlook...Sub-VFR conditions expected at times through the weekend and even into Monday due to an unsettled weather pattern. Scattered showers and tstms are expected on both Sunday and Monday. A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns by Tuesday with chances for storms each afternoon/evening.
MARINE
As of 430 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River through late tonight/early Sunday morning.
- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect from Parramore Island S to the VA/NC for lingering seas to 5 ft.
With yesterday's backdoor cold front now well S of the local area, winds have generally dropped off to 10-15 kt with gusts to 15-20 kt early this morning. However, winds are expected to increase a bit later today through tonight as low pressure lifts NE into the Great Lakes with the sfc high sliding off the coast of northern New England into Atlantic Canada. Will keep the SCAs going for the Bay/lower James for E winds increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. On the ocean, have extended SCAs through 10 am for now for the zones between Parramore Island and the VA- NC border. This is where seas are still ~5ft, with 3-4 ft seas elsewhere. Depending on the increase in winds later today, these headlines may need an extension.
The front lifts back N on Sunday, shifting winds to the SE/SSE.
SSW winds return for Monday through the middle of next week (but likely remain sub-SCA). Southerly flow looks as though it will persist through most of next week with the next backdoor cold front possible some time Friday.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 440 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Upgraded the northern Neck to a Coastal Flood Advisory through Sunday for widespread minor flooding.
- Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect for the bayside of the Maryland eastern shore, with an upgrade to a Coastal Flood Advisory likely for additional rises late Sunday into Monday morning.
Tidal departures early this morning average around +1.5 ft across the Bay and tidal rivers. A strong flood tidal current Fri aftn/evening has led to increasing departures into the mid/upper Bay. The pattern of elevated E winds shifting to the ESE to SE by tonight favors going above ETSS guidance across the northern Neck. As such, a Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect in this area for the next 3 high tides through Sunday aftn (an extension through Monday morning will likely be needed). Have maintained a Coastal Flood Statement for the bayside of the MD eastern shore to cover nuisance flooding for the next 2 high tide cycles. Water levels further increase here later Sunday into early Monday with an upgrade to a Coastal Flood Advisory likely as SSE winds will tend to focus the highest departures here by that time. A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for locations on the west shore of the middle Bay to cover nuisance flooding for the next 2 high tide cycles (this may need to be extended as well). It still appears that other than locally moderate flooding at Bishops Head, this event will peak in minor flood category with the high tide cycle Sunday aftn into early Monday.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT Sunday for VAZ075>078.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ638.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ654- 656.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA | 54 mi | 51 min | E 1.9G | 59°F | 65°F | 30.17 | ||
| CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA | 57 mi | 51 min | ENE 6G | 58°F | 30.17 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KASJ TRICOUNTY,NC | 4 sm | 25 min | NE 03 | 1/2 sm | Overcast | Mist | 59°F | 59°F | 100% | 30.17 |
Suffolk
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:52 AM EDT 0.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:06 AM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 06:08 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 08:07 AM EDT 4.03 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:13 PM EDT 0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:09 PM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 07:58 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 08:37 PM EDT 4.49 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:52 AM EDT 0.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:06 AM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 06:08 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 08:07 AM EDT 4.03 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:13 PM EDT 0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:09 PM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 07:58 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 08:37 PM EDT 4.49 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Suffolk, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1 |
| 1 am |
| 0.3 |
| 2 am |
| 0.1 |
| 3 am |
| 0.4 |
| 4 am |
| 1.1 |
| 5 am |
| 2.1 |
| 6 am |
| 3 |
| 7 am |
| 3.7 |
| 8 am |
| 4 |
| 9 am |
| 3.8 |
| 10 am |
| 3.2 |
| 11 am |
| 2.2 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 0 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 3.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 4.4 |
| 9 pm |
| 4.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 4 |
| 11 pm |
| 3.1 |
Hollidays Point (bridge)
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:20 AM EDT 0.11 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:06 AM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 06:08 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 07:21 AM EDT 3.22 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:41 PM EDT 0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:09 PM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 07:51 PM EDT 3.59 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:58 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:20 AM EDT 0.11 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:06 AM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 06:08 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 07:21 AM EDT 3.22 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:41 PM EDT 0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:09 PM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 07:51 PM EDT 3.59 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:58 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Hollidays Point (bridge), Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.4 |
| 1 am |
| 0.1 |
| 2 am |
| 0.2 |
| 3 am |
| 0.7 |
| 4 am |
| 1.4 |
| 5 am |
| 2.2 |
| 6 am |
| 2.8 |
| 7 am |
| 3.2 |
| 8 am |
| 3.1 |
| 9 am |
| 2.7 |
| 10 am |
| 2.1 |
| 11 am |
| 1.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 0 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 2 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 3.4 |
| 8 pm |
| 3.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 3.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.9 |
Wakefield, VA,
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