Sunrise 6:13 AM   Sunset 7:54 PM Moonrise 1:34 AM   Moonset 11:39 AM

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FXUS64 KLZK 012328 AAA AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 628 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

12Z LIT sounding showed a modest amount of elevated instability, from roughly 750mb on up. Decaying MCS complex out of OK this morning pushed out a cloud shield and a few distinct outflow boundaries, which has resulted in some light showers in a roughly N- S orientation across the central part of the state. Also at the moment, radar and visible satellite show a bit of development firing up in an area of partial clearing between the clouds/precip remnants over OK, and the previous remnant cloud shield over central AR.

A look at the larger picture shows a very broad midlevel trof across the western 2/3 of the continental US. Progs show an embedded shortwave spinning up over TX and rotating up over AR into the morning hours.

At the surface, a quasi-stationary boundary was located over the southern half of MO, with a southerly surface flow in place over AR.
By Friday, a cold front will start to slowly push into Arkansas from the Plains.

With the shortwave approaching the state tomorrow and adequate moisture in place, there will be a slight risk for excessive rainfall...which could lead to rises in rivers and flash flooding.

LONG TERM
(Friday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Overall pattern supports unsettled conditions across the forecast area early in the period before a more tranquil pattern develops towards the end. Model differences are what you would expect in this time frame and an overall blend of forecast solutions is preferred.

Long term period begins with a largely amplified pattern in place characterized by upper level low pressure systems over central Ontario and just off the British Columbia coast. Pattern places the region in an active southern stream with a series of systems moving through for a continuation of rain chances. It must be emphasized that even with POPS remain in the forecast, rain will not be falling all the time.

Aforementioned BC system will dive into the four corners over the weekend and will drag a front through the region increasing the chances for precipitation in this time frame. This deep strong system will eventually move off to the northeast but remain over the northern plains through the remainder of the period. As it moves into the northern plains, pattern supports a much drier regime but not until the end of the period.

Temperatures will remain warm with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s through the weekend increasing to the lower 90s by the middle of next week.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

A few scattered SHRA/isolated TSRA will be possible this evening across the SWRN sections...but expect most areas to remain dry overnight. Chances for convection return during the morning hrs on Thu...with scattered SHRA expected. Some isolated TSRA will also be possible Thu afternoon. Some MVFR CIGs will be possible with this activity.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Batesville AR 64 83 64 81 / 10 80 80 50 Camden AR 64 77 64 80 / 10 90 80 70 Harrison AR 62 78 60 78 / 10 80 70 30 Hot Springs AR 63 76 64 81 / 10 90 80 60 Little Rock AR 65 83 66 83 / 10 80 80 60 Monticello AR 66 83 67 80 / 0 90 90 80 Mount Ida AR 64 76 63 81 / 10 90 70 60 Mountain Home AR 62 82 61 79 / 20 70 70 40 Newport AR 63 84 64 80 / 0 50 80 60 Pine Bluff AR 64 81 65 80 / 0 90 90 80 Russellville AR 63 78 63 82 / 10 80 60 40 Searcy AR 62 83 63 81 / 10 70 80 60 Stuttgart AR 66 83 66 80 / 10 70 90 70

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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