Sunday, March26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mountain Home, AR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 7:32PM Sunday March 26, 2017 11:48 AM CDT (16:48 UTC) Moonrise 5:19AMMoonset 5:06PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mountain Home, AR
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location: 36.34, -92.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Little Rock, AR
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Fxus64 klzk 261130 aaa
afdlzk
area forecast discussion... Update
national weather service little rock ar
630 am cdt Sun mar 26 2017

Aviation
OverallVFR flight conditions are forecast today, except for parts
of northern ar TAF sites where MVFR ceilings will be seen for part
of the morning. These ceilings are associated with the large surface
low pressure center over the upper plains, which will gradually move
and thin this morning. Winds will be northwest to west at less than
10 mph or light and variable. Winds will become more south at 5 to
10 mph through the day. (59)

Prev discussion / issued 332 am cdt Sun mar 26 2017/
main concerns in this forecast cycle are chances of convection
late Sunday night to Monday, then next chance Wednesday night to
Thursday. Both weather system will have some chance of strong to
severe storms. Over temperatures will be above normal.

Currently high pressure is filtering in over ar, as the cold front
pushes more east, and the surface low pressure system moves
northeast. Some lower clouds were seen over northern ar, while to
the south skies have cleared. Dewpoint temperatures and air
temperatures were both in the the 40s to lower 50s. Winds were
light from the west or light and variable. Aloft, the upper low
continues to move northeast, while upper high pressure ridging is
seen over the central plains.

Short term Today through Monday night
the active progressive upper pattern will continue over central to
southern us, and will bring repeated systems to the region. Today
will be a dry with the winds gradually becoming south, and
temperatures warming to the 70s to lower 80s. Tonight, the next
upper and surface systems move into ok then lift northeast to mo.

Convection chances come up quickly overnight and into Monday for
ar, especially over northern ar where the main lift is forecast to
move across. Moisture maybe a limiting factor with a quick moving
system and limited time to set up a south wind flow. Dewpoint
temperatures only make it to the 50s. 06z to 12z Mon appear to be
where factors max. Together to possibly develop strong to severe
storms. SPC does have a marginal to slight risk of severe storms
with this system. Hail and winds will be the main threats, while
an isolated tornado may form. Monday during the day, the focus of
any strong to severe storms moves east, then out of the state
Monday afternoon. Highs on Monday will be above normal values with
the 70s to lower 80s. Dry weather returns Monday night with
clearing skies, and lows in the 40s northwest, the 50s central to
the 60s in the far south.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
Tuesday...

the consensus of model guidance indicates that a cold front will
stall out near the arkansas and louisiana border around sunrise on
Tuesday. Upper level ridging is expected to build over arkansas on
Tuesday as a powerful upper level storm system continues to move
east over the southwestern CONUS towards the south plains. With dry
air in place behind the front and upper level ridging over the
state... Expect a very pleasant day across the state with highs in
the mid-70s under partly cloudy skies.

Wednesday...

the GFS and ECMWF are now both on board in bringing the upper level
trough over the south plains on Wednesday as one large upper trough
as opposed to breaking into two distinct pieces of energy like the
gfs was advertising yesterday on its 00z run. In general this large
scale solution increases confidence in the potential for severe
storms across arkansas Wednesday late afternoon and evening. For
Wednesday... Both models have the warm sector in place for all but
far northwestern arkansas. Both models show strong deep layer shear
and a sufficient amount of convective potential instability to
support supercell thunderstorms. It's too early to determine the
mode of the convection... But the synoptic conditions are favorable
for severe storms so will highlight this risk in graphics and the
hazardous weather outlook.

Aside from the severe thunderstorm threat... There is also a threat
for heavy rainfall and flash flooding. The raw QPF output from the
26/00z GFS paints a big swath of 3-4 inch rainfall totals in 6 hours
across parts of central and western arkansas Wednesday evening.

While this raw model output from one model run is unlikely to
verify... It does at least demonstrate the potential for heavy
rainfall and flash flooding across the state. The GFS seems to be
more aggressive with the heavy rainfall threat than the ecmwf
because the GFS is a bit slower with the eastward progression of the
upper trough. Both models significantly slow down the eastward
progression of the upper trough as it detaches from the polar jet
stream... However a slower solution will keep favorable dynamics in
place over the warm sector for a longer period of time that would
support a local flash flood event. Deep moisture as indicated by
pwat values of greater than 1.5 inches is present in each
solution... So the ingredients are certainly in place and we will
have to watch the flooding potential closely moving forward.

Thursday...

the GFS and ECMWF both show the potential for another
round of strong to severe thunderstorms primarily over southeast
arkansas Thursday early afternoon. There are many reasons why this
may not pan out... So will not highlight a severe weather threat on
Thursday right now. If the deterministic thermodynamic and kinematic
parameters from the GFS at 18z pan out... We would certainly have a
severe weather threat in southeast arkansas. However significant
organized convection on Wednesday and Wednesday evening will likely
have a large impact on where storms set up on Thursday. It seems
more likely that numerous showers and thunderstorms across arkansas
Wednesday and Wednesday night will tend to push the severe weather
threat southeast of the state by Thursday... But we will continue to
monitor model solutions as this storm system approaches.

Friday and Saturday...

behind the Wednesday/Thursday upper level
storm system... Dry air advection and large scale forcing for
subsidence should lead to a couple of days of dry weather for Friday
and into the weekend. Temperatures look like they will top out in
the lower 70s for most locations... Making for a couple of very nice
days for anyone with plans outdoors.

Sunday...

another strong upper level storm system is expected to move
over the south plains on Sunday. This could bring another round of
showers and thunderstorms across arkansas... However there is
considerable uncertainty regarding this system at this time. Went
ahead with some chance pops for now... But the timing of
precipitation could change quite a bit in later forecasts.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Batesville ar 73 56 72 55 / 0 50 70 30
camden ar 81 62 77 57 / 0 30 50 20
harrison ar 70 53 70 50 / 0 80 70 20
hot springs ar 78 59 76 53 / 0 60 60 10
little rock ar 78 59 75 54 / 0 40 70 20
monticello ar 79 61 75 61 / 0 20 50 30
mount ida ar 77 58 76 51 / 0 60 50 10
mountain home ar 70 53 72 53 / 0 70 70 30
newport ar 73 57 73 57 / 0 50 70 40
pine bluff ar 78 60 76 59 / 0 30 60 30
russellville ar 77 57 76 51 / 0 70 70 10
searcy ar 75 56 73 54 / 0 50 70 30
stuttgart ar 76 60 74 57 / 0 40 60 40

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories None.

Short term... 59 / long term... Cavanaugh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mountain Home, Baxter County Regional Airport, AR5 mi55 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F45°F72%1014.7 hPa

Wind History from BPK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW76--SW10
G18
6NW5NW7NW84W4Calm3W33CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm43Calm
1 day agoSW16
G23
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G27
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G24
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G26
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SW9S9
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CalmW5SE3SE10S5SE8SE8S7--SE9S8S6S7SW3
2 days agoS7S8S9S10S10
G19
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S7--SE7SE5S6S8S9SW8SW9SW12
G17
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SW9S6SW18
G27
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G26
SW15
G27

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Little Rock, AR (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Springfield, MO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.