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FXUS64 KLZK 021146 AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 646 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Mid and high clouds were noted increasing in coverage across AR ahead of an upper level disturbance evident via infrared satellite imagery. Predawn temperatures were in the mid 60s to lower 70s with light and variable winds.

Today, scattered showers and thunderstorms will build into the state from the W and SW ahead of an upper level impulse traversing background SWrly flow. Precip is expected to ramp up substantially across SW AR this morning, spreading into Cntrl sections of the state around mid-day, to mid/late afternoon for portions of NE AR.
PoP chances will linger into Thursday night with a lull in activity possible across portions of Wrn AR.

On Friday, another upper level disturbance will move across the region bringing another round of precipitation, mainly through the first half of the day. This upper level disturbance appears slightly weaker and further S than the one moving across the state today, thus may not bring as much widespread rainfall to AR. Greatest PoP chances should be over Srn AR (closer proximity to aforementioned upper feature). Another lull in rainfall is possible Friday night. An active upper pattern will remain entrenched across the region heading into the long term.

The threat for severe weather appears low at this time for Thursday and Friday, however rainfall amounts are anticipated to vary by quite a bit depending on said location within the state. Over Nrn AR, amounts of 0.10 to 0.50 are possible. Further S, over Cntrl AR, amounts may range from 0.50 to 1.00. And lastly but not least, Srn sections of the state could see rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches. High temperatures both days will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s with lows mainly in the 60s.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The extended period will start off unsettled, with a cold front drifting into Arkansas from the north and stalling. Surrounding the front, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast through the weekend. Any severe weather should be spotty, and there could be localized flash flooding.

Heading into next week, a large storm system will head from the Rockies into the northern Plains. Ahead of the system, the aforementioned front will exit back to the north. At the same time, the system will try to drag a new front into the region, but it will likely come to a halt north of the state. This will happen as the front becomes nearly parallel to the flow aloft.

Given the scenario, warmer conditions are expected Monday through Wednesday, and precipitation will become more isolated. Rain chances are highest in northern Arkansas closest to the front. Temperatures will be well above average.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

SHRA/TSRA are expected to build into the state from the SW this morning with the passage of an upper level disturbance. CIGs will lower from VFR to low-end MVFR, then IFR during the late afternoon across most TAF sites. There could be lull in coverage of PoPs by this evening. S/SWrly winds between 10-20 kts are expected today.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Batesville AR 83 63 79 63 / 50 90 50 20 Camden AR 77 65 79 64 / 80 70 70 20 Harrison AR 80 59 76 60 / 80 60 30 10 Hot Springs AR 77 63 80 64 / 80 70 60 20 Little Rock AR 81 66 81 66 / 70 80 60 30 Monticello AR 80 68 79 66 / 60 80 80 30 Mount Ida AR 76 62 81 63 / 90 60 50 20 Mountain Home AR 82 60 78 61 / 70 70 30 10 Newport AR 85 65 79 63 / 50 90 50 30 Pine Bluff AR 81 66 79 65 / 70 80 70 30 Russellville AR 80 62 81 63 / 70 60 30 20 Searcy AR 82 63 79 62 / 60 80 50 30 Stuttgart AR 82 67 79 65 / 60 80 70 30

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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